Strikeouts and Stolen Bases
Saves and Steals has been back for just one week and already there are changes to report. The Phillies appear to be increasing their effort to trade Jonathan Papelbon before the start of the season. The Brewers and Blue Jays have expressed interest in the veteran. Given what we found in last week's all team bullpen audit, it's not surprising to see them in the mix for a (seemingly) safe reliever. A mystery AL team is also in the hunt.
If Papelbon is traded, Ken Giles should soar up your draft boards. Before you toss him next to Craig Kimbrel, there is one important caveat to note. In his major league debut, he posted a 2.17 BB/9 rate. In parts of four minor league seasons, he managed an unsightly 5.40 BB/9. Given his stuff and triple digit velocity, his floor should resemble the 2014 version of Trevor Rosenthal. If he maintains the walk rate, he'll be downright elite.
The other notable change is the injury to A's closer Sean Doolittle. The lefty is dealing with a slight tear to his rotator cuff. It's a difficult injury to rehab, so don't count on a speedy return. The A's were wise to acquire Tyler Clippard before announcing the injury. The king of holds should be a steady source of saves in the first couple months. There is a chance he'll retain the job even if Doolittle returns.
For the remainder of today's post, I'd like to focus on reliever evaluation. Most saves leagues feature an exploit – elite, non-closing relievers. You won't be able to snag Wade Davis or Giles for peanuts this season, especially in auction leagues, but there are other excellent relievers who have all the tools of a closer. All they need is the opportunity. Roster enough of these with $1 or late-round picks and you can win saves without spending on them.
A good place to start is with last week's audit. Identify which teams are weak in the ninth. Roughly half the league has some concern ranging from ancient Rockies reliever LaTroy Hawkins to the late-season injuries suffered by Minnesota's Glen Perkins. Unfortunately, most of these teams don't have a Giles or Davis waiting in the wings. They'll either need to develop one mighty fast (recall that Giles came out of nowhere last season) or make a trade.
Now let's bring in the stats. Our old friend Eno Sarris did a good job laying the groundwork for reliever analysis. Per FanGraphs' Jack Moore, velocity and strikeout rate are the best predictors of closer changes. Derek Carty of Baseball Prospectus found that for every mph over 90, ERA declines by .2 runs. Most of us are familiar with using ERA estimators like FIP or SIERA to anticipate future performance. Even better - and more relevant to fantasy categories - is K-BB%.
Using FanGraphs, I've created a custom leaderboard to capture the best predictive peripherals. Below I have listed the top 50 pitchers by 2014 K-BB% with a minimum of 40 innings pitched. We need about 150 batters faced before a pitcher's K-BB% contains more signal than noise, which is right around the 40 inning mark.
The table is sortable and also includes velocity, strikeout rate, walk rate, ERA, and three common ERA estimators. You can also tinker with the customizable leaderboard if you'd like. I recommend analyzing multiple seasons together as a next step. You can also add/remove stats from the table at the bottom of the page. If you have questions about any of the statistics, please feel free to ping me on Twitter.
Name | Team | FBv | K% | BB% | K-BB% | ERA | FIP | xFIP | SIERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Aroldis Chapman | Reds | 100.3 | 52.50% | 11.90% | 40.60% | 2.00 | 0.89 | 1.20 | 1.09 |
Andrew Miller | - - - | 93.9 | 42.60% | 7.00% | 35.50% | 2.02 | 1.51 | 1.58 | 1.21 |
Sean Doolittle | Athletics | 94 | 37.70% | 3.40% | 34.30% | 2.73 | 1.71 | 2.25 | 1.53 |
Brad Boxberger | Rays | 93.1 | 42.10% | 8.10% | 34.00% | 2.37 | 2.84 | 1.95 | 1.37 |
Dellin Betances | Yankees | 96.6 | 39.60% | 7.00% | 32.60% | 1.40 | 1.64 | 1.86 | 1.45 |
Ken Giles | Phillies | 97.2 | 38.60% | 6.60% | 31.90% | 1.18 | 1.34 | 2.03 | 1.51 |
Wade Davis | Royals | 95.7 | 39.10% | 8.20% | 30.80% | 1.00 | 1.19 | 1.93 | 1.61 |
Kenley Jansen | Dodgers | 93.7 | 37.70% | 7.10% | 30.60% | 2.76 | 1.91 | 1.93 | 1.64 |
Greg Holland | Royals | 95.8 | 37.50% | 8.30% | 29.20% | 1.44 | 1.83 | 2.10 | 1.77 |
Koji Uehara | Red Sox | 88.2 | 32.10% | 3.20% | 28.90% | 2.52 | 3.09 | 2.41 | 1.85 |
Craig Kimbrel | Braves | 97.1 | 38.90% | 10.70% | 28.30% | 1.61 | 1.83 | 2.24 | 1.94 |
David Robertson | Yankees | 91.8 | 37.10% | 8.90% | 28.20% | 3.08 | 2.68 | 2.13 | 1.88 |
Jake McGee | Rays | 96.3 | 32.90% | 5.80% | 27.00% | 1.89 | 1.73 | 2.58 | 1.98 |
Joaquin Benoit | Padres | 94.7 | 31.20% | 6.80% | 24.40% | 1.49 | 2.32 | 3.02 | 2.30 |
Zach Duke | Brewers | 89.7 | 31.10% | 7.10% | 24.00% | 2.45 | 2.14 | 2.09 | 1.95 |
Nick Vincent | Padres | 89.8 | 28.80% | 5.10% | 23.70% | 3.60 | 2.77 | 2.91 | 2.36 |
Charlie Furbush | Mariners | 91.8 | 28.80% | 5.10% | 23.70% | 3.61 | 2.80 | 2.83 | 2.31 |
Cody Allen | Indians | 95.3 | 32.60% | 9.30% | 23.30% | 2.07 | 2.99 | 3.03 | 2.41 |
Tony Sipp | Astros | 92.4 | 31.80% | 8.60% | 23.20% | 3.38 | 2.93 | 2.94 | 2.43 |
Pat Neshek | Astros | 90.3 | 26.70% | 3.50% | 23.10% | 1.87 | 2.37 | 3.29 | 2.55 |
Joakim Soria | - - - | 90.2 | 26.40% | 3.30% | 23.10% | 3.25 | 2.09 | 2.73 | 2.32 |
Steve Cishek | Marlins | 91.7 | 30.60% | 7.60% | 22.90% | 3.17 | 2.17 | 2.54 | 2.34 |
Josh Fields | Astros | 94.4 | 30.30% | 7.40% | 22.90% | 4.45 | 2.09 | 3.15 | 2.47 |
Joel Peralta | Rays | 89.6 | 27.90% | 5.70% | 22.30% | 4.41 | 3.40 | 3.11 | 2.54 |
Mark Melancon | Pirates | 92.8 | 25.60% | 4.00% | 21.70% | 1.90 | 2.09 | 2.47 | 2.07 |
Tony Watson | Pirates | 94.4 | 26.60% | 4.90% | 21.60% | 1.63 | 2.69 | 2.84 | 2.39 |
Addison Reed | Diamondbacks | 92.4 | 27.40% | 6.00% | 21.40% | 4.25 | 4.03 | 3.26 | 2.68 |
Shawn Kelley | Yankees | 92.2 | 30.50% | 9.10% | 21.40% | 4.53 | 3.02 | 3.10 | 2.60 |
Tyler Clippard | Nationals | 91.8 | 29.50% | 8.30% | 21.20% | 2.18 | 2.75 | 3.28 | 2.62 |
Glen Perkins | Twins | 93.4 | 25.40% | 4.20% | 21.20% | 3.65 | 3.10 | 3.11 | 2.62 |
Brett Cecil | Blue Jays | 92.8 | 32.50% | 11.50% | 20.90% | 2.70 | 2.34 | 2.51 | 2.49 |
Jake Diekman | Phillies | 96.9 | 32.00% | 11.20% | 20.80% | 3.80 | 2.65 | 2.83 | 2.64 |
Chris Hatcher | Marlins | 95.1 | 25.90% | 5.20% | 20.70% | 3.38 | 2.56 | 2.78 | 2.50 |
Francisco Rodriguez | Brewers | 90.6 | 27.20% | 6.70% | 20.50% | 3.04 | 4.50 | 2.91 | 2.58 |
Sergio Romo | Giants | 88 | 25.70% | 5.20% | 20.40% | 3.72 | 3.94 | 3.40 | 2.70 |
Neil Ramirez | Cubs | 94.3 | 29.90% | 9.60% | 20.30% | 1.44 | 2.61 | 3.48 | 2.82 |
Danny Farquhar | Mariners | 93.3 | 27.90% | 7.60% | 20.30% | 2.66 | 2.86 | 2.94 | 2.60 |
Oliver Perez | Diamondbacks | 91.3 | 29.70% | 9.40% | 20.30% | 2.91 | 3.23 | 3.16 | 2.64 |
Kevin Jepsen | Rays | 95.5 | 28.90% | 8.90% | 20.00% | 2.63 | 2.78 | 2.97 | 2.62 |
Darren O'Day | Orioles | 87.3 | 26.90% | 7.00% | 19.90% | 1.70 | 3.32 | 3.32 | 2.66 |
Adam Ottavino | Rockies | 94.3 | 25.70% | 5.90% | 19.90% | 3.60 | 3.10 | 3.06 | 2.61 |
Fernando Salas | Angels | 91.2 | 25.50% | 5.90% | 19.70% | 3.38 | 2.93 | 3.21 | 2.82 |
David Carpenter | Braves | 95.6 | 25.90% | 6.20% | 19.70% | 3.54 | 2.94 | 3.19 | 2.72 |
Will Smith | Brewers | 93 | 30.10% | 10.80% | 19.20% | 3.70 | 3.25 | 3.08 | 2.79 |
Randall Delgado | Diamondbacks | 93.4 | 29.90% | 10.70% | 19.20% | 4.40 | 3.16 | 3.48 | 2.87 |
Pedro Strop | Cubs | 95 | 29.10% | 10.30% | 18.90% | 2.21 | 2.66 | 2.82 | 2.59 |
Huston Street | - - - | 89.3 | 24.90% | 6.10% | 18.80% | 1.37 | 2.80 | 3.34 | 2.87 |
Hector Rondon | Cubs | 95.7 | 24.70% | 5.90% | 18.80% | 2.42 | 2.26 | 2.81 | 2.60 |
Joe Smith | Angels | 88.7 | 23.90% | 5.30% | 18.60% | 1.81 | 2.85 | 2.98 | 2.42 |
Here we are, Chapman through Smith. For those who are curious, Papelbon was the first truncated reliever. There are definitely names to watch outside of the top 50 in K-BB%. Let's explore a few interesting scenarios.
The Yankees have two great choices for the ninth inning. As we discussed last week, New York has not announced who they expect to close. It's widely assumed it will be Betances. His ability to pitch multiple innings and cost controlled contract could push the club towards using Miller. Based only on 2014 numbers, they can't go wrong with either option. If both implode, Carpenter is a viable alternative.
The Rays are another club in a good spot. McGee was great last season after taking over for Grant Balfour. Boxberger was even better. With McGee likely to miss the start of the season, Boxberger should get a shot at the ninth inning role. If he pitches well, it should be his job going forward. Beware of other internal options like Balfour.
As we discussed earlier, Giles shows well with a sixth overall ranking, but there is reason to expect more walks in the future. I don't think he'll fall apart, but it's certainly a possible outcome. The median expectation is a walk rate similar to the one posted by Kimbrel last season. In other words, he projects to be a fantastic reliever. Diekman also appears on this list for the Phillies.
The Padres have assembled possibly the deepest bullpen in the game. Benoit ranked just outside the top 10 with Nick Vincent and Shawn Kelley not too far behind. Trade acquisition Brandon Maurer is liable to appear on the 2015 version of this list. Benoit is a health risk, and he could be traded too. Both Kelley and Maurer could battle for the closer's mantle. Vincent is sneakier about his ability, he resembles Melancon.
The Mariners aren't represented here by closer Fernando Rodney or former closer Tom Wilhelmsen. Instead, we find Furbush and Farquhar. The latter was a popular sleeper candidate for the exact role we're discussing today. Rodney always appears to be walking a fine line, so a speculative selection of Farquhar isn't a bad idea. Furbush is a lefty who doesn't appear to be anywhere near earning saves. For deep leagues, he could be a decent source of holds or ratios.
The Angels have one of the only closers with an average fastball under 90 mph – Street. They've quietly acquired plenty of relief talent in case Street slips into disrepair. Smith filled in admirably last season while Salas and Jepsen might have just enough stuff to do in a pinch.
One of my top non-closing targets last season was Allen. The Indians found themselves a good ninth inning man. Ranked just inside the top 20, Allen could once again prove a valuable source of saves and ratios. If anything happens to him, the Indians will need to scrounge another internal option.
The Astros hired Luke Gregerson to close, but they have other pitchers who have flashed better abilities. Tony Sipp and Josh Fields were inconsistent last season, which is why Chad Qualls held the job. Fields in particular is just a bit of polish short from closing games. Houston also brought Pat Neshek aboard.
The Cubs don't seem inclined to oust Hector Rondon from the closer's gig. He performed ably last season. While Ramirez and Strop are excellent alternatives if something goes wrong, it's definitely Rondon's job to lose. It can still make sense to draft a guy like Ramirez if your league is sufficiently deep.
Ottavino has major platoon problems. Beyond that, it's unwise to roster pitchers at Coors Field. Even though Hawkins is arguably the least stable closer in the majors, I wouldn't speculate on Ottavino in most leagues. Even if he gets the job, it's so easy to envision plenty of painful blown saves.
Projected Stolen Base Threats
Let's begin prepping for stolen bases with the help of Steamer. It's a free projection system available at FanGraphs. Steamer uses past data and age to determine its projections. In some cases, a star player (ahem, Mike Trout) might cut down on his stolen base totals so he can focus on other parts of his game.
Below I have created a 32 player list of everybody who projects to reach 20 or more stolen bases. This is just a slice from one projection system, so don't take offense if you think there's no way X player will swipe Y bags. This is just a starting point. We'll go more in depth in future weeks. If you'd like to mess with all Steamer projections, you can find them here.
Name | PA | H | HR | R | RBI | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Billy Hamilton | 629 | 141 | 7 | 70 | 44 | 64 | 25 | 0.245 | 0.297 | 0.342 |
Dee Gordon | 586 | 138 | 2 | 63 | 38 | 47 | 18 | 0.257 | 0.308 | 0.335 |
Ben Revere | 621 | 165 | 3 | 63 | 41 | 36 | 13 | 0.283 | 0.316 | 0.347 |
Jose Altuve | 667 | 184 | 9 | 84 | 62 | 35 | 15 | 0.299 | 0.341 | 0.411 |
Jacoby Ellsbury | 631 | 155 | 16 | 81 | 64 | 31 | 10 | 0.271 | 0.329 | 0.418 |
Carlos Gomez | 629 | 148 | 22 | 79 | 72 | 30 | 11 | 0.261 | 0.323 | 0.441 |
Everth Cabrera | 547 | 123 | 5 | 59 | 38 | 30 | 12 | 0.25 | 0.311 | 0.335 |
Starling Marte | 591 | 147 | 14 | 72 | 60 | 29 | 15 | 0.274 | 0.33 | 0.43 |
Emilio Bonifacio | 520 | 115 | 4 | 55 | 39 | 29 | 11 | 0.245 | 0.304 | 0.327 |
Leonys Martin | 576 | 138 | 10 | 66 | 56 | 28 | 13 | 0.264 | 0.318 | 0.387 |
Rajai Davis | 410 | 100 | 6 | 48 | 39 | 28 | 10 | 0.265 | 0.31 | 0.378 |
Elvis Andrus | 663 | 161 | 4 | 76 | 54 | 28 | 13 | 0.269 | 0.327 | 0.345 |
Jarrod Dyson | 305 | 68 | 2 | 33 | 23 | 27 | 8 | 0.246 | 0.308 | 0.33 |
Eric Young | 353 | 77 | 3 | 39 | 25 | 25 | 8 | 0.243 | 0.311 | 0.334 |
Denard Span | 638 | 163 | 5 | 79 | 48 | 23 | 9 | 0.282 | 0.338 | 0.387 |
Gregory Polanco | 566 | 128 | 14 | 64 | 54 | 23 | 12 | 0.25 | 0.31 | 0.382 |
Alcides Escobar | 602 | 146 | 5 | 61 | 50 | 23 | 8 | 0.26 | 0.295 | 0.347 |
Jose Reyes | 640 | 165 | 11 | 85 | 59 | 22 | 8 | 0.284 | 0.335 | 0.41 |
Charlie Blackmon | 645 | 162 | 16 | 81 | 64 | 22 | 10 | 0.274 | 0.324 | 0.417 |
Jordan Schafer | 270 | 54 | 2 | 28 | 20 | 22 | 9 | 0.227 | 0.302 | 0.311 |
Mike Trout | 674 | 169 | 31 | 109 | 93 | 21 | 8 | 0.297 | 0.393 | 0.538 |
Brett Gardner | 659 | 148 | 12 | 81 | 58 | 21 | 8 | 0.254 | 0.328 | 0.388 |
Lorenzo Cain | 584 | 143 | 8 | 60 | 55 | 21 | 9 | 0.267 | 0.315 | 0.377 |
Jean Segura | 515 | 125 | 8 | 52 | 46 | 21 | 10 | 0.262 | 0.306 | 0.372 |
Dalton Pompey | 437 | 93 | 7 | 46 | 42 | 21 | 10 | 0.235 | 0.295 | 0.354 |
Steven Souza | 500 | 110 | 18 | 59 | 59 | 20 | 10 | 0.247 | 0.319 | 0.419 |
Jason Kipnis | 612 | 137 | 13 | 71 | 62 | 20 | 8 | 0.253 | 0.33 | 0.386 |
Coco Crisp | 600 | 133 | 13 | 77 | 53 | 20 | 6 | 0.251 | 0.328 | 0.385 |
Desmond Jennings | 662 | 141 | 14 | 79 | 58 | 20 | 8 | 0.241 | 0.318 | 0.377 |
Jimmy Rollins | 628 | 133 | 13 | 72 | 53 | 20 | 8 | 0.237 | 0.306 | 0.358 |
Anthony Gose | 387 | 82 | 5 | 41 | 35 | 20 | 10 | 0.236 | 0.301 | 0.343 |
Jose Ramirez | 460 | 107 | 5 | 48 | 40 | 20 | 11 | 0.252 | 0.297 | 0.344 |
I'd like to first call attention to the newbies. Pompey, Souza, and Gose should all be on your radar for steals. Gose is the latest iteration of Dyson, he should be used more as a pinch runner and defensive replacement. Pompey comes with plenty of risk, but he could weasel his way atop the Blue Jays dynamic lineup.
Souza is one of my favorite January sleepers. He's the type of guy who is going to be hyped in the coming months to the point where he might cost too much on draft day. He's not without risk, but he has the potential to provide five category value similar to Starling Marte. And if you were drafting today, he would be practically free.
Players who mix home runs with base thievery are rare. Only one person gets the opportunity to draft Trout. Gomez is another guy who I've seen go in the first round due to his excellent fantasy skills. Ellsbury is a solid third choice, although he'll have to get lucky on the power side to reach a 20/20 season.
Several of the players listed here come with serious warts and should not be drafted. Cabrera has ongoing legal proceedings, which is why he has not signed with a team (and probably why he was non-tendered in the first place). Bonifacio had one of his good seasons in 2014, but he's generally a 300 to 400 plate appearance guy. Similarly, Davis is only startable against left-handed pitching. Dyson, Schafer, and Gose are fourth and fifth outfielders.
