Stock Up, Stock Down: Week 2
Week 2 of the 2014 season was the most devastating week for injuries I can ever remember. Jamaal Charles, A.J. Green, Robert Griffin III, DeSean Jackson, Knowshon Moreno, Ryan Mathews, Eric Decker, Mark Ingram and many more suffered serious or potentially serious injuries. Most of those players will miss multiple weeks. It was brutal.
With all the injuries, it would be easy to write this column exclusively about players that benefit from those injuries, but that is too easy. Obviously guys like Knile Davis and Donald Brown are must adds, while players like Kirk Cousins, Mohamed Sanu, Khiry Robinson, Andre Roberts and even Damien Williams are interesting pickups as well. Instead, let’s look at some players that gained or lost value on the field Week 2.
Stock Up
Jeremy Hill
Jeremy Hill could have ended up here based on his final numbers alone. He rushed for 74 yards on only 15 carries (4.9 YPC) and capped off a game-killing drive in the third quarter with a touchdown. It was an impressive performance from the rookie, but the performance is not why he landed on this list.
The real reason Hill’s stock is on the rise is workload. A week after OC Hue Jackson promised to get Hill the ball more often, Hill saw 36 percent of the running back carries. With the Bengals well on their way to a 500-plus rushing attempt season, that level of workload could easily see Hill into the 190 carry range. Those touches matched with his touchdown potential would already put him in the weekly RB3 conversation, and if Giovani Bernard cannot improve on his current 3.4 YPC, Hill could find his way into even more work.
Hill might not be a fantasy starter week-to-week, but he will be a fine matchup play moving forward. One of those nice matchups could come this week when the Bengals host the Titans. If A.J. Green cannot go, I would expect a ton of both Bernard and Hill against a Titans defense that just gave up 220 rushing yards to the Cowboys, which would make Hill a nice FLEX play Week 3.
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Bobby Rainey
Bobby Rainey put on a show while filling for an injured Doug Martin. Rainey rushed for 144 yards on 22 carries (6.5 YPC) and added three catches for 30 yards. He was quick and decisive to the hole, and made several nice moves at the second level to pick up extra yards. It was an impressive performance.
The problem is we have seen Rainey do this before. Last season Rainey rushed for 163 yards on 30 carries against the Falcons Week 11. Rainey started the final six games following that breakout performance, but only averaged over 3.75 yards per carry once more, and it took an 80-yard touchdown for him to reach that mark.
Despite his struggles down the stretch last season, this performance had to at least buy Rainey a few more touches even when Martin is healthy, and if Martin continues to struggle, there is certainly a scenario where Rainey takes over the job altogether. His history of big games followed by duds gives me pause on blowing a large percentage of my FAAB budget on him, though, especially with someone like Knile Davis available in 81% of Yahoo! leagues. He needs to be owned, but I am bidding more on other players this week.
Davante Adams
Rookie WR Davante Adams began to establish himself as a part of the Green Bay offense Week 2. His seven targets were the second most on the team, and he played two more snaps than “No. 3” receiver Jarrett Boykin. More interestingly, Adams did not start to establish himself until after a bad Boykin drop in the red zone late in the second quarter.
There is a chance Adams involvement was simply down to Boykin having a bad day, but the reality is Adams has the chance to be a much better player than Boykin will ever be. Without a tight end to speak of, the Packers need a No. 3 wide receiver capable of being a difference maker. Adams is that player.
Adams should at least be in a rotation with Boykin moving forward, and could take the job altogether by the end of the season. He needs to be owned in most leagues.
Darren Sproles
Darren Sproles had seven catches for a career-high 152 yards and four carries for 26 yards and a touchdown against the Colts Monday night. Sproles now has 26 touches in the first two games of the season, and looks to be a big part of the offense. As long as he continues to be successful, there is no reason that will change.
Sproles looked like he lost a step last season, but he has been revitalized in Chip Kelly’s offense. He should continue to have a big role, and will be at least an RB3/FLEX consideration the rest of the season.
Brian Quick
Brian Quick backed up a seven catch, 99-yard performance on opening day with another seven catch day against the Bucs. Quick has seen 27.7 percent of the Rams targets, and his 18 total targets are six better than the next highest Ram. He is clearly the No. 1 receiving option.
Quick’s upside is limited by the offense, but he is developing into a nice WR3 option. He has the physical upside to be much more than that if the Rams’ passing game improves.
Stash and See
These players may not be worthy of a start Week 2, but certainly are worthy of a roster spot.
Allen Robinson had four catches for 75 yards on six targets against the Redskins. One of the more athletic wide receivers in the 2014 draft, Robinson could rise to the top of the Jaguars' nondescript wide receiver corps. … Isaiah Crowell is still out there in several leagues. He is more talented than Terrance West. … Niles Paul had a breakout game filling in for an injured Jordan Reed. Reed could be back any week, but Paul is an upside TE2 while he is out. … Brandon Bolden is clearly the No. 3 back in New England. If handcuffing Stevan Ridley fumbles is your game, Bolden is the play. … Andre Holmes finally got involved this week, and may be closing down Denarius Moore for the No. 3 job. With Rod Streater likely out, Holmes should have a decent size role Week 3. … Jarvis Landry is establishing himself as the No. 3 receiver in Miami. He saw six targets and played 44 snaps against Buffalo. … Alfred Blue seems to have passed Jonathan Grimes for the No. 2 running back job in Houston. Already with 55 carries in two games, the chances of Arian Foster holding up an entire season are slim. … Larry Donnell leads the Giants with 17 targets, and looks poised to continue as a relatively big part of the offense. There is not a ton of upside, but he could be useful in the bye weeks. … Ryan Grant had eight targets after DeSean Jackson left injured. He could be a large part of the offense if Jackson is forced to miss any time.
Stock Down
Eddie Lacy
Eddie Lacy struggled to 43 yards on 13 carries (3.3 YPC) against the Jets Week 2. Lacy now has only 77 yards on 25 carries (3.1 YPC) this season, and has only scored 10.6 total fantasy points.
It is important to put these performances in context, though. The Jets and the Seahawks were both top-five against fantasy running backs last season, and the Packers were down big in both games. The good news for Lacy is the schedule opens up after another tough matchup with the Lions this week, and the Packers are unlikely to be down multiple scores in every game. He is going to get the touches, and that will turn into fantasy success.
These struggles probably have Lacy’s owners spooked, and if they do not, a rough matchup against the Lions this week may be enough to do the trick. I still have the utmost faith in his ability to be a high-end RB1. I am interested in buying if someone is looking to sell.
Justin Hunter
Poised for what should have been a breakout game against the Cowboys, Justin Hunter put in one of the more disappointing performances of Week 2. Hunter caught 2-of-6 targets for only 26 yards and no touchdowns.
The stat line does not tell the whole story, though. Jake Locker struggled throughout the first half, and Hunter could not convert even when Locker was able to get him the ball after the break. Hunter dropped what would have been long-play late in the third quarter, and could not hold onto a catchable ball in the back of the end zone in the fourth. The plays were there. He just did not make them.
Even though Hunter did not make the plays on Sunday, I still believe he has the talent to be a top-level wide receiver. He is still second on the Titans in targets, and as long as that continues he will be a candidate for a massive breakout.
Toby Gerhart
As opposed to the first two on this list, Gerhart is a player I am completely out on. Gerhart had only 8 yards on seven carries against the Redskins, and now had 50 yards on 25 carries this season. It has been a train wreck.
The fault for the disastrous start does not fall completely on Gerhart. The offensive line has been terrible, and Chad Henne does not pose enough of a threat to keep eight men out of the box. Even so, those problems affect Gerhart’s ability to produce, and they do not appear to be going away for at least the next couple weeks.
You have to hold onto Gerhart because his value isn't nonexistent, but he is no longer someone I feel comfortable starting even in a good matchup like this week's against the Colts. Find a better option.
Ryan Tannehill
In an effort at full disclosure, I have never been a Ryan Tannehill fan, but I at least thought a new, more-creative offensive would allow him to be a reliable QB2 with upside for more. After two weeks, it is hard to see the upside.
The real problem Tannehill has is his complete inability to hit the big play. The next time he throws an accurate deep ball will be his first, and the Dolphins’ skill players outside of Mike Wallace are not players you would expect to make a play after the catch. Tannehill has two completions 20 yards or longer this season, and one of them was a catch-and-run by Charles Clay.
He is still valuable in two quarterback leagues, and he could be a reasonable bye-week fill in for standard formats. Apart from that, though, he does not have much fantasy value. He should be on the waiver wire in most fantasy leagues.
New England Running Backs
Stevan Ridley busted out for 101 yards on 25 carries after only playing 26 percent of the Patriots snaps Week 1. He out-snapped Shane Vereen 37-19, and out-touched Vereen 25-7.
While this might seem like great news for Ridley, it is really a reminder that New England backs are the most game-plan dependent unit in the league. Ridley will continue to have touchdown upside, and Vereen will continue to be a high value PPR play. Neither, however, can be anything more than RB3 in standard formats until we get some clarity, if we ever do.
The Purge
These players are unlikely to make any noise this season. They are not must drops, but can be replaced without worry.
Brian Hartline has 12 targets through two games, but is not doing anything with them. With Jarvis Landry on the rise, Hartline could see his role reduced. Upside was never there, and the floor may be disappearing. … James White was a healthy scratch for the second straight week. He is behind Brandon Bolden on the depth chart, and will likely need two injuries before he has a role. … Riley Cooper only saw three targets Monday night, and is not good at football. Cut him. … Danny Amendola only played 19 snaps Week 2. Please cut him. … Kenny Britt has one catch and more worryingly four targets through two games. Brian Quick is the No. 1 in St. Louis. … Tyler Eifert is not worth holding through his stint on IR. Cut him. … Devonta Freeman is behind Jacquizz Rodgers for the change-of-pace role, and would likely be a committee member even if Steven Jackson went down.
