Solving the riddle of the trade deadline is a game all its own
Anthony Rizzo, Chicago Cubs, Jan. 15, 2015: “We’re going to win the NL Central and you can quote me on that.”
Joe Kelly, Boston Red Sox, Feb. 1, 2015: “I’m going to win the Cy Young this year.”
Ron Roenicke, Feb. 14, 2015: “I’m not nervous that our pitching staff is thin.”
Ryne Sandberg, Philadelphia Phillies, Feb. 18, 2015: “I don’t look at this as a rebuild.”
Mike Redmond, Miami Marlins, March 20, 2015: “We understand what the number is to make the playoffs.”
Wil Myers, San Diego Padres, April 2, 2015: “It’s going to work.”
Then the season starts, and the July 31 deadline approaches, and by then life feels a little different.
It happens. You have your cup of coffee in the morning, think, “Today is going to be a great day,” then adjust to the relative “greatness” of the next 12 hours. Sometimes by, like, mid-afternoon you could use a new starting pitcher or a halfway decent left fielder, you know, to get through the day. Or maybe just a nap.
Two weeks from the deadline, 27 teams need somewhere between a little help and so much help it’s probably silly to think about, but they’re not exactly done. Not done-done. Yet. Probably. The completely random cut-off is double-digit deficits in the wild-card and division races, a standard so low only the Marlins, Brewers and Phillies (especially the Phillies, who are, turns out, rebuilding, a strategy Sandberg in the end volunteered to be part of) are sneaking up on naptime.
The rest are free to believe what they want to believe, though many general managers are smarter than that, so we’d put the Colorado Rockies, Cincinnati Reds, Oakland A’s and Seattle Mariners in that group of, “So many bad things would have to turn good it’s probably too much to ask.”
Still, that’s only seven teams as almost certain sellers, or should be, as of July 17. Eight, maybe, if the San Diego Padres shoot off in a Preller-ian direction nobody sees coming (though the Padres should be listening on Justin Upton, at the very least.) And all that could change in 10 days.
So how are 22 or 23 teams supposed to get healthy off seven or eight? They probably won’t. Washington Nationals general manager Mike Rizzo, whose team was the sexy pick (again) to go to the World Series and leads the NL East, confirmed for reporters the other day that the Nationals are not a perfect team. That’s because there’s no such thing. And come the morning of Aug. 1, there’ll still be no such thing. And in late October, two imperfect teams will find out which is less imperfect and hold a parade for it.
Last summer, the San Francisco Giants and Kansas City Royals, both toddling along as reasonable wild-card teams, did not light up the deadline. The Giants traded for Jake Peavy, a helluva competitor and the oldest 33-year-old ever who at the time was 1-9 for the Boston Red Sox. The Royals, who already had the best seventh-, eighth- and ninth-inning relievers in the game, got Jason Frasor from Texas. A month-and-a-half later, they claimed Jayson Nix off waivers.
Know who made bigger trades? The St. Louis Cardinals, who acquired John Lackey and A.J. Pierzynski, and the Baltimore Orioles, who added Andrew Miller, Kelly Johnson and Nick Hundley. Know who watched the Giants and Royals play Game 7 of the World Series? The Cardinals and Orioles, having been eliminated in the league championship series.
“If you look at the history of teams that go on and play in the World Series, very rarely is it [because of a] deadline deal,” Cubs president Theo Epstein recently told reporters in Chicago. “We know what we’d like to do, but we’re realistic about what we might be able to do.”
They should want to trade for Jonathan Papelbon, among the Phillies who don’t make sense for the unsalvageable team anymore. Cole Hamels is another, of course. If a team has any kind of financial might and has played reasonably well, it has been linked at one time or another to Hamels. He can block a trade to all but nine teams, which could complicate things, but the alternative is to finish out a 110-loss season in Philly and then to show up next spring to get to work on another.
The Dodgers have the financial might and farm-system flash and depth to do as they please. They have enough concern over their starting rotation to be properly motivated. Zack Greinke, their best pitcher in the first half, is expected to opt out of his contract at the end of the season. So, the potential issues are long and short term, which is why they’ll be players on all fronts, beginning with Hamels, who is under contractual control through 2019, and Johnny Cueto, who can be a free agent in a few months. They’ll have competition for both, presumably from the New York Yankees, Toronto Blue Jays and Texas Rangers, among others. There’ll be more teams on Cueto alone, broadening the market to include the Houston Astros, Giants and Royals.
Soon, if they haven’t already, baseball operations offices in Miami, in Detroit, in Seattle, in Chicago and in Oakland will decide whether their records are hiding the souls of contenders or if the standings are accurate. In the latter cases, the pitching market could find itself flooded with the likes of Dan Haren and Mat Latos, even David Price, Hisashi Iwakuma, Jeff Samardzija and Scott Kazmir.
One more variable: the general managers.
There are first-timers in Colorado, San Diego, Arizona and Tampa Bay. There are shaky job statuses in Philadelphia, Seattle and Milwaukee. Dave Dombrowski’s contract in Detroit runs out after the season. The Marlins’ GM is managing the team. The Angels’ GM quit a couple weeks back.
This is where reputations are made and lost, jobs won and lost, seasons sent off in new directions.
Does Walt Jocketty break up the Reds? Beyond Cueto, can Jay Bruce be had? Aroldis Chapman? Mike Leake? Todd Frazier even?
What’s Billy Beane see in Oakland?
Does Ben Cherington believe in the losing streaks in Boston? Or the winning streaks?
Will Sandy Alderson let the Mets’ season die in spite of all his pitching?
And just how big do the Dodgers go?
No team is perfect, see. Not even the ones that cost almost $300 million. No matter what it looked like just three months ago. Life is so different today.
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