Euro 2012 group projections: Who'll go through?
Group A: Czech Republic, Greece, Poland, Russia
On paper, Group A is not nearly as attractive as the other three groups due to a lack of big name stars. Russia enters the competition as the favorite but only slightly.
Poland possesses a trio of in-form Dortmund stars, a quality shot stopper, and the home crowd. That could easily be enough for the co-host nation to advance and possibly even win the group. Lukasz Piszczek, Jukub Blaszczykowski, and Robert Lewandowski combined to win the German league and cup this season with Borussia Dortmund. Arsenal’s Wokciech Szczesny is a rising star who has performed at a high level as Arsenal’s first-choice keeper for the past year and a half, and he is only 22 years of age. These four players may be enough to capture the Polish consciousness.
The Czech Republic has a few questions surrounding the fitness of Tomas Rosicky, who had an outstanding season with Arsenal during the 2011-12 campaign. Regardless of Rosicky’s fitness, Petr Cech’s presence between the posts offers the Czech Republic an opportunity to shut out the opposition and collect points every time out.
The long shot in this group is Greece. However, the ugly and physical style Greece plays is suited for the European Championships, and Greece shocked the continent by winning the 2004 Championships in Portugal.
AccuScore Picks to advance — Russia and Poland
Group B: Denmark, Germany, Netherlands, Portugal
Since Joachim Löw took over as manager in 2006, Germany lost in the Euro 2008 final and lost in the 2010 World Cup in the semi-final. In both competitions, the Germans were defeated in group play but managed to advance. Germany is a clear pre-tournament favorite and most likely to advance out of Group B. Although the crowds for Germany’s matches promise to provide an advantage as the competition progresses, all three group stage matches are in the Ukraine, not Poland—which directly borders Germany.
Germany expects to advance the “group of death,” but the Netherlands, Portugal, and Denmark are all capable of progressing. The Netherlands lost in the 2010 World Cup final, and not much has changed with regards to key personnel for the Oranje. Robin Van Persie and Klaas-Jan Huntelaar are two of the best forwards in Europe at the moment, and picking between the two of them is a headache in of itself. But manager Bert Van Marwijk has the added challenge of finding the right combination of attacking midfielders and wingers with the likes of Arjen Robben, Wesley Sneijder, Dirk Kuyt, Rafael Van der Vaart, and Ibrahim Afellay all available to play. An opening tournament win against Denmark would go a long way to keeping potential dissenting voices in the locker room quiet. The Dutch roster is the most talented attacking group in Europe, but the available playing time does not match the talent in the camp.
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The Portuguese have the unfortunate task of opening the competition against the Germans. Portugal limped into the competition, requiring a playoff against Bosnia-Herzegovina to advance to the group stages. The Portuguese have a not-so-secret weapon, and the talent of Cristiano Ronaldo gives the Iberians the potential to achieve greatness. Ronaldo could and should be the best player in the competition, and he has a solid group of experienced players alongside him.
Denmark is the real long shot in the group, and hardly a soul is giving the Danish a chance to advance despite their impressive 2-1 win against Australia in the final warm-up ahead of the competition.
AccuScore Picks to advance – Germany and Portugal
Group C: Croatia, Ireland, Italy, Spain
Croatia’s Nikica Jelavic proved his form and quality by scoring 9 goals in 13 Premier League appearances after arriving at Everton in January. Croatia’s defense puts out plenty of defensive experience with keeper Stipe Pletikosa, defender Josip Simunic, and captain Darijo Srna all having collected over 90 caps. Even with Ivica Olic ruled out through injury, Brazilian-born Eduardo was looking sharp enough in Croatia’s final friendly with an impressive snap-headed effort, and he should collect his 50th caps for Croatia during the group stage.
Defending European and World Champion, Spain is still the team to beat due to its midfield depth and passing ability. With Xavi and Iniesta not having the strongest of seasons and perhaps finally showing slight signs of slowing, the 2012 Spain team is David Silva’s team. Although Silva is not new to the team, he has a more integral role to Spain’s success than ever before. If Silva fails to impress, Spain will likely fail to succeed. Regardless of whether it is Negredo, Llorente or Torres leading the line, Silva’s ability to consistently dribble in attacking positions and create is the key to unlocking opposing defenses that treat the penalty box like a bus parking lot. With Andres providing the assist in the final friendly against China, Iniesta is far from washed up, so Silva is hardly alone out there.
Italy is a team mired in controversy and shame due to a betting scandal that is rocking Italian football. The Italian Prime Minister has suggested the Italian game be suspended for multiple years. Manager Cesare Prandelli stated he would not fight withdrawing from the competition. However, Italy was in a similar shamed position in 2006 (although not this bad), and that team banded together to win the World Cup. With Antonio Di Natale, Antonio Cassano, Andrea Pirlo, and Gigi Buffon highlighting the 2012 Azzurri squad, the Italians have plenty of experience on offer. Also, Mario Balotelli’s quotes against racism have done well to take some focus off the gambling, but if Super Mario can make some statements on the pitch, Italy certainly possesses the ability to advance and win the competition.
Ireland’s manager has a habit of making more headlines than his players. Giovanni Trapattoni has managed Milan, Inter, Juventus, Fiorentina, Cagliari, and the Italian National team. To say he is familiar with Italian football is an understatement, but asking Ireland to make it out over Croatia, Italy, and Spain is a supremely tall mountain to climb for Robbie Keane and company.
AccuScore Picks to advance – Spain and Italy
Group D: England, France, Sweden, Ukraine
England has had its injury issues, especially in the midfield and defense. Added to the injuries, Wayne Rooney is out for the first two matches of the competition due to suspension. Still, England is unbeaten under Roy Hodgson with a couple of ugly yet effective 1-0 wins. Joe Hart is in goal, there is an experienced group defending in front of him, a pair of pacey wingers in the wide areas, and Rooney is a player that can conjure up magic. If England can manage some points until Rooney is available, the Three Lions may just have a real chance.
France is not the same side that crashed out of the 2010 World Cup in devastating fashion. This is a French side that finished top of its qualifying group and put together an impressive run of friendlies ahead of the Euros. Karim Benzema scored massive goals during qualifying, and he must find his form for France to progress. Franck Ribery currently has the goal scoring touch, and Florent Malouda looks a man reborn in blue.
It’s hard look at Sweden and ignore Zlatan Ibrahimovic, but Sweden is a deeper side than just one tall, skilled, goal-scoring machine. Sebastian Larsson and Kim Kallstrom are two top-quality midfielders that cross and create for the Swedish attack. Also, Ibra is not alone when leading the line. Whether he starts with Werder Bremen’s Markus Rosenberg or Galatasaray’s Johan Elmander—the latter was named in the squad despite injury—Ibrahimovic is not a one man attack. But Ibra can be that too.
Ukraine is a co-host nation led by experienced defensive midfielder Anatoliy Tymoschuck. Tymo, who plays for Bayern Munich, is one of only two players on the team who play outside of the Ukraine at the club level. Although Tymoschuck leads the defense in spirit, Andriy Schevchenko is the elder statesman and captain on the team at 35 years of age. Both Sheva and Tymo have collected over 100 caps, and Shevchenko is one of nine Dynamo Kyiv players in the squad. In fact, 21 of 23 Ukrainian players play football domestically. If ever there was a side built for the home field advantage, Ukraine is that side.
AccuScore Picks to advance – England and Sweden
(Author’s Note: the author strongly believes France will advance)
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