Silva's Week 19 Matchups

Sunday Football

1:05PM ET Game

Dallas @ Green Bay

Sunday's games are expected to be the highest scoring of the Divisional Round. The Vegas total on Cowboys-Packers is 52.5 points, second largest behind only Colts-Broncos. ... Aaron Rodgers has been virtually unstoppable at Lambeau for a sustained stretch. Across his last 16 home games, Rodgers is 322-of-471 passing (68.4%) for 4,341 yards (9.22 YPA) and a 38:0 TD-to-INT ratio, with three additional rushing scores. DFS players willing to pay up for Rodgers should hope that concerns about his partial calf tear lower his owned percentage in tournaments. Facing a Dallas team that finished the regular season 22nd in Football Outsiders' pass-defense DVOA, Rodgers is the highest-upside QB option of the Divisional Round. ... The Cowboys' defense was vulnerable on the ground for most of 2014, but came on down the stretch. Over its last five games, Dallas has held opposing running backs to 267 yards on 82 carries (3.26 YPC), perhaps creating a tougher matchup for Eddie Lacy than people may perceive. When compared to the Divisional Round’s other big-time backs -- DeMarco Murray, Marshawn Lynch, and C.J. Anderson, for instance -- I think Fat Eddie will have a relatively low ownership percentage. He's intriguing from that standpoint and on the basis that game flow should work in Lacy's favor with the Packers installed as six-point favorites. ... James Starks' touch totals in the regular season's final month were 12, 5, 11, and 5. I noticed Starks' FanDuel price tag is the bare minimum this week. Starks' workload is uncertain, and it's entirely possible he handles only four or so carries against the Cowboys. But if he gets eight and catches a pass or two, I think he'd be worth it. He's someone to consider as a salary-cap saver.

Rodgers' target distribution in Weeks 14-17: Jordy Nelson 39; Randall Cobb 37; Lacy 16; Davante Adams and Andrew Quarless 12; Richard Rodgers 11; Starks 10. ... Nelson and Cobb are both excellent daily-league stack candidates with Rodgers, and I think it's worth exploring starting all three if you can free up enough room. Jordy will run most of his pass patterns at Cowboys LCB Brandon Carr, whom Dallas used to shadow Calvin Johnson in the Wild Card Round. Megatron posted a respectable 5-85 number on eight targets and could've had much more if the Lions had been more aggressive. Rodgers is always aggressive. Carr finished the regular season as Pro Football Focus' No. 94 coverage cornerback among 108 qualifiers. ... The Packers use Cobb in a role similar to Detroit's Golden Tate, who dusted Dallas' zone defense for a 6-89-1 receiving line last week. ... Adams never quite earned Rodgers' trust during his rookie year. He dropped three passes over the final four regular season games and remained lightly targeted despite a 79% snap rate during that span. The good news is Adams' daily-league price tag is accordingly cheap. The bad news is his usage is likelier than not to be low. ... Packers TEs Rodgers and Quarless are just closed-eyes DFS plays. They do have a good matchup against a Cowboys defense that permitted the third most fantasy points to tight ends in 2014, but typically cancel each other out in the box score. Rodgers saw only 30 targets all season and goose egged in 7-of-16 games. Quarless primarily blocks and catches occasional checkdowns.

I noted Romo's performance over his last 16 home games above. These are Tony Romo's stats in his last 16 away games: 321-of-493 passing (65.1%) for 3,692 yards (7.49 YPA) with a 35:6 TD-to-INT ratio. Two concerns about Romo in this game expressed by RotoAcademy's Jonathan Bales were Romo's small hands -- which can negatively impact quarterback play in cold temperatures -- and Romo's history in outdoor games with temperatures at or below freezing. Romo has played in three such games as a pro, completing 53-of-94 throws (56.4%) for 548 yards (5.83 YPA) with a 6:4 TD-to-INT ratio. He had a three-TD game against the 2013 Bears in sub-freezing temps, and also had a three-INT game against the 2008 Steelers in a sub-freezing environment. Sunday's game is expected to be played at around 20 degrees. Romo has a 14:1 TD-to-INT ratio the past five weeks and is playing the most efficient football of his career, but I'd view him as more of a contrarian DFS play than high-floor option. ... The Cowboys stayed true to their offensive formula in the Wild Card Round despite DeMarco Murray's slow start to the game. Murray wound up with 22 touches, 97 total yards and a touchdown, becoming more effective the more he touched the ball. Green Bay's regular season defensive weakness was on the ground, where they ranked 24th in Football Outsiders' run-defense DVOA. The Packers' run defense is mediocre or worse. Whereas there was legitimate Week 18 concern about Murray's matchup -- and he still delivered -- this game sets up much better for a big box-score performance. Dallas will stay committed to its rushing attack even if it falls behind.

Romo's target distribution over his last five games: Jason Witten 32; Dez Bryant 29; Cole Beasley 27; Murray 18; Terrance Williams 17. ... The Lions all but eliminated Dez with bracket coverage in the Wild Card Round. Packers DC Dom Capers is more of a blitz-happy defensive mind and generally doesn't double team wide receivers. Look for a big bounce back from Dez against a Green Bay defense that struggled to contain Julio Jones (11-259-1), Brandon Marshall (8-112-1), Jeremy Maclin (9-93-1), and Jordan Matthews (5-107-1) in the second half of the season, and was physically outmatched by Calvin Johnson (4-39-2) and Brandon LaFell (5-38-2) in the red zone. ... The Cowboys cut loose Witten as a pass catcher down the stretch, using him as the possession complement to Dez. The 2014 Packers allowed the 11th most receptions (74) and ninth most yards (883) to tight ends. Rob Gronkowski is easily the top DFS tight end play of the Wild Card Round. Witten is squarely in the mix for No. 2. ... Beasley has only two fewer targets than Bryant over the last five weeks and played 63% of Dallas' snaps in the Wild Card Round, Beasley's highest snap rate since Week 1. Beasley's playing time spiked in each of those games because the Cowboys fell behind, though it's entirely possible they'll fall behind the Packers in this one. He's worth a look as a low-cost DFS punt play.

Score Prediction: Packers 27, Cowboys 23

4:40PM ET Game

Indianapolis @ Denver

I was mildly surprised to see Colts-Broncos assigned the Divisional Round's loftiest Vegas total. I'd bet the under on 54 points. Denver theoretically has enough defensive talent to slow Andrew Luck and penetrate his protection, while the Broncos morphed into a run-heavy team down the 2014 stretch and I don't see that suddenly changing. ... C.J. Anderson is as good a bet as anyone to score a touchdown this weekend, but Ronnie Hillman's Week 17 usage is cause for some pause. Fully back from his six-week foot injury against the Raiders, Hillman handled 16 touches and played 45% of the Broncos' offensive snaps compared to Anderson's 15 touches and 46% snap rate. Hillman didn't just get garbage-time work, either, receiving four first-quarter carries and eight touches in the first half. Perhaps the Broncos were just trying to get Anderson late-season rest, or perhaps they'll employ an even timeshare the rest of the way. Hillman is a risky-if-interesting DFS tournament play at his affordable cost. Anderson's price tag has risen to the point where I'm probably going to fade him with uncertainty surrounding his role. ... Peyton Manning's volume and performance slipped dramatically during the regular season's stretch run, and pass defense is a strength on Indy’s side. Whereas the Colts ended the season ranked No. 19 in Football Outsiders' run-defense DVOA metric, they were top ten against the pass. Peyton has a tough matchup in sub-optimal weather, and his team's late-season revision in offensive philosophy suggests Manning's pass attempts will be limited.

Manning's target distribution the past three weeks: Demaryius Thomas 42; Emmanuel Sanders 19; Anderson 15; Wes Welker 9; Julius Thomas 8; Virgil Green 3; Jacob Tamme and Hillman 2. ... Even with the Broncos throwing less, Demaryius still saw target totals of 11, 14, and 17 in the final three games. Whether he'll be the focal point of Denver's passing attack isn't the question. It's whether he's worth his high DFS price tag in a matchup with physical Colts press corners Vontae Davis and Greg Toler. I suspect Demaryius' ownership percentage will be relatively low, which helps his case. But Jordy Nelson, Dez Bryant, Randall Cobb, and even Julian Edelman are all more optimal on paper. Demaryius is a contrarian play. ... Sanders is in the same predicament as Demaryius, albeit with less volume and less talent. Sanders and Demaryius frequently flip-flop sides, while Indianapolis' corners do not move. Both Broncos wideouts will run their fair share of routes at shutdown RCB Davis. Sanders is another contrarian DFS play. ... Orange Julius' price tag has fallen so far that he’s become an intriguing option for daily leaguers wanting to fade Rob Gronkowski. Thomas' ankle should be healthier coming off a bye, and when healthy Julius is always a good bet for red-zone scores. The Colts allowed the fifth most fantasy points to tight ends this regular season, including a beastly 7-104-3 line to Julius when these teams played in Week 1. ... Not a true big-play threat or red-zone dominator, Welker has always relied on pass-game volume to buoy his fantasy stats. Welker didn't get volume in 2014 and especially not down the stretch, when his target totals were 3, 4, and 2 in Denver's final three games. Welker doesn't have a high enough floor or ceiling for serious DFS consideration.

Andrew Luck went toe-to-toe with Manning in Week 1, amassing 389 all-purpose yards and three touchdowns in a 31-24 loss. The Colts couldn't run the ball on Denver and are doubtful to in the Divisional Round. Sort of like a ball-hogging point guard in basketball, Luck figures to be a usage machine on Sunday evening, albeit against a defense more talented than his supporting cast. The range of outcomes for Luck's Week 19 box score is pretty wide, in my opinion. He could rack up yards and touchdowns if this game evolves into a shootout, as the Vegas sharps anticipate. If the game is relatively low scoring and Denver's Von Miller-DeMarcus Ware combination consistently gets to Luck, Indianapolis could end up stumbling into a lot of turnovers. I like the Broncos' defense as a contrarian play on Seattle's from a DFS standpoint. I'm not going all-in on Luck as a daily-league start, but I'll have some exposure. He's been a team-carrying quarterback all year and will have to carry his team once again in this spot. ... Dan Herron was the best DFS-value running back of the Wild Card Round and is again tough to fade in round two. Herron fumbled twice against Cincinnati, but the Colts' coaching staff kept going back to him, and openly expressed confidence in Herron via the media this week. In spite of last Saturday's loose balls, Herron piled up 22 touches, 141 total yards, and a touchdown, playing 75% of Indy's offensive snaps. Deservedly, Trent Richardson has been eliminated from the backfield and UDFA Zurlon Tipton is a limited plodder. Expect full-on feature back work for Herron. The Broncos ranked No. 3 in Football Outsiders' run-defense DVOA metric this regular season, but Herron will get the ball in space and at the goal line. He's playing a combination of the Richardson-Ahmad Bradshaw roles from early this season.

The Broncos dedicated a lot of coverage to T.Y. Hilton in Week 1, limiting him to five catches for 41 yards on 11 targets with a long reception of nine. They were willing to let Reggie Wayne (9-98) beat them. The question isn't whether Denver DC Jack Del Rio will pull out all possible stops to slow Hilton down. It's whether Hilton will have success versus physical press coverage and likely double teams. My guess is he won't, though I certainly wouldn't rule it out. Hilton's history of struggles outdoors still has me fading him this week in favor of Jordy Nelson, Dez Bryant, and Julian Edelman. ... These were the Week 18 snap rates of Indianapolis' other pass catchers: Dwayne Allen 86%, Coby Fleener 75%, Wayne 70%, Donte Moncrief 53%, Jack Doyle 32%, Hakeem Nicks 27%. ... Despite his high Wild Card Round snap rate, Allen saw only three targets against Cincinnati and blocked on well over half of his plays. In Sunday night's game, I'm guessing he'll play a critical role in blocking Ware and Miller. Allen is capable of catching red-zone touchdowns, but I'm going to target higher anticipated volume from my tight ends. ... Fleener's outlook takes a hit with Allen in the lineup, and Denver's physical defenders limited Fleener to 21 scoreless yards on eight targets in Week 1. He's a boom-or-bust DFS option with a high probability of busting. ... Wayne has done nothing recently that suggests he's capable of repeating his nine-catch opener against the Broncos. Playing through multiple injuries, the 36-year-old has two touchdowns in 16 games this year, topping 40 yards once over his last seven. ... Moncrief and Nicks are daily-league dart throws. The Broncos have moved their cornerbacks around enough lately that attempting to project which Denver DB will cover whom is a pure guessing game. Moncrief is more talented and gets more run than Nicks, so he'd be the superior fantasy bet between those two.

Score Prediction: Broncos 24, Colts 20