Silva's Week 15 Matchups

1:00PM ET Games

Pittsburgh @ Atlanta

Le'Veon Bell is the top running back play of Week 15 taking on an Atlanta defense playing on short rest after last Monday night's track meet in Green Bay. You'd have to think the 43-37 road loss took a lot out of them. The Falcons rank 31st in Football Outsiders' run-defense DVOA and have allowed the most fantasy points in the league to running backs. A usage machine since the Steelers moved on from LeGarrette Blount, Bell is averaging 28.7 touches for 237 yards per game with five all-purpose touchdowns over the past three weeks. In addition to dominant rushing stats, Le'Veon is on pace for 88 receptions. He has at least five catches in six of his last seven games. In last week's thumping of Cincinnati, the Steelers noticeably drew up pass plays intended specifically for Le'Veon to handle the ball in space. ... Ben Roethlisberger exceeded expectations against the Bengals, throwing for 350 yards and three touchdowns in the Steelers' 42-21 win. Big Ben's fantasy owners should've been eyeballing this matchup for a while. The Falcons rank 30th in FO's pass-defense DVOA, allow a league-high 287.8 passing yards per game, and rank last in the NFL in sacks (15). Playing indoors in a game with a Week 15-high 55.5-point over-under against arguably the league's worst defense, Roethlisberger couldn't ask for a better setup with fantasy title-game berths on the line.

Big Ben's target distribution since the Steelers' Week 12 bye: Antonio Brown 26; Bell 20; Heath Miller 17; Markus Wheaton 12; Martavis Bryant 10; Lance Moore 7. ... The Falcons have coughed up wideout lines of 8-146-2 (Jordy Nelson), 3-81-1 (Torrey Smith), 5-136 (Alshon Jeffery), 6-113 (Brandon Marshall), 7-151-1 (Golden Tate), 7-125-1 (Mike Evans), 9-109-1 (Kelvin Benjamin), 8-120 (Josh Gordon), 5-93 (Andrew Hawkins), and 7-75 (Jaron Brown) over their last nine games. Brown is arguably the top fantasy wide receiver play of Week 15. ... This is a great matchup for both Wheaton and Bryant, but their inconsistent usage renders each a shaky fantasy investment. Bryant is the superior option because of his superior ability, but he's logged snap rates of 36% and 33% since Pittsburgh's bye, with target totals of 4 and 6. Bryant's big-play ability is obvious -- he showed it again by whipping Bengals CB Leon Hall for a 94-yard touchdown on a go route last Sunday -- but he's a boom-or-bust WR3/flex. Bryant's previous two stat lines were 2-11-0 and 1-23-0. ... Continuing his trend of unreliability, Miller followed his 8-82 number in Week 13 with a 1-1-1 game last week at Cincinnati, seeing three targets. A low-end, roller-coaster fantasy TE1, Miller's Week 15 matchup isn't great on paper against a Falcons defense permitting the third fewest fantasy points to tight ends.

Matt Ryan opened the season as one of the hottest quarterbacks in football. His play tailed off for a month and a half as Atlanta dealt with myriad offensive line and wide receiver injuries. Ryan has re-found his groove, completing 81-of-123 passes (65.9%) for 1,009 yards (8.20 YPA) and an 8:3 TD-to-INT ratio over his last three games. He's done that against Cleveland, Arizona, and Green Bay, all competent opponents or better from a pass-defense standpoint. Pittsburgh is considerably weaker than all three. The availability of Julio Jones (hip) has a major impact on Ryan's Week 15 fantasy outlook. He'll be a candidate for top-five quarterback stats if Julio plays. Even against Pittsburgh's sieve-ish defense, I think you have to downgrade Ryan to a low-end QB1 if Julio is declared inactive Sunday morning. ... Steven Jackson might be the most touchdown-dependent running back in fantasy. He has exceeded 60 rushing yards in just 2-of-13 games and is used very lightly in the passing game. If he doesn't get a goal-line chance and execute, S-Jax will be a black hole on your team. Matchups don't matter much for S-Jax because he doesn't light up anyone on the ground anymore, not even bad defenses. He's a low-upside, low-floor flex option every week.

Saturday Update: Indications on Saturday were that Julio (hip) is unlikely to play against Pittsburgh, pushing Roddy White into the high-end WR2 realm. He'll be a candidate for 12-plus targets in this projected shootout. Ryan's outlook is less favorable. The Falcons would be without their offensive centerpiece, and Ryan has barely managed fantasy QB1 stats in games Julio has missed the past two seasons. If Julio is announced as inactive on Sunday, Harry Douglas would come into play as a high-floor, low-ceiling WR3 option in PPR leagues.

Ryan's target distribution since Atlanta's Week 9 bye: Julio 64; Roddy White 33; Harry Douglas 25; Devin Hester 19; Levine Toilolo 16; Jacquizz Rodgers 15; S-Jax 10; Devonta Freeman 5. ... Pittsburgh ranks 31st in Football Outsiders' pass-defense DVOA and has been shredded by opposing No. 1 wide receivers Kenny Stills (5-162-1) and A.J. Green (11-224-1) since its Week 12 bye. Julio should run wild on the Steelers if he plays. If Julio is out or at less than 100%, Roddy is capable of handling heavy volume and paying off as a WR2. White has 90-plus receiving yards and/or a touchdown in all but one of his last six games. ... Douglas is worth grabbing for Julio owners afraid he might not play. When both Julio and Roddy are good to go, however, Douglas carries no fantasy appeal. He did see 12 targets when White missed Week 13 and caught nine for 116 yards. Against Pittsburgh, I'd expect Ryan to throw at least eight balls in Douglas' direction if Julio is out.

Score Prediction: Steelers 27, Falcons 24

Washington @ NY Giants

The Redskins' sorry pass defense hasn't improved since Eli Manning set it ablaze for five all-purpose touchdowns in Week 4. It's arguably gotten worse. Coughing up productive games to good and bad quarterbacks alike, Washington has been lit up by Josh McCown, Colin Kaepernick, Andrew Luck, and Shaun Hill for a combined 70-of-101 passing (69.3%), 1,127 yards (11.16 YPA), and a 10:2 TD-to-INT ratio over the last four games. It should come as no surprise that the Redskins rank dead last in Football Outsiders' pass-defense DVOA. Eli is a legitimate QB1 in fantasy semifinals week. ... Look for Manning to primarily attack Washington with Odell Beckham, who has a touchdown and/or 90-plus yards in eight of his first nine NFL games. Utilized as a "movement-Z" receiver -- usage similar to Pittsburgh's Antonio Brown -- Beckham is shuttling all around the formation as OC Ben McAdoo makes him difficult for defenses to scheme against. Entrenched as the centerpiece of New York's offense, Beckham has collected double-digit targets in five of the past six weeks. He's a candidate for top-five fantasy wideout numbers against a Redskins defense that specializes in blown coverages.

Rashad Jennings' ankle is expected to be healthier this week, but his workload is uncertain. Andre Williams arguably earned more of the carry share in last week's win over Tennessee, turning 24 runs into 131 yards and a touchdown while mixing chain-moving gains with big plays. Facing a Washington defense whose strength is run stoppage, Jennings and Williams are both shaky flex options. The Redskins stuffed previously red-hot Tre Mason (20-66-0) last week and have limited enemy running backs to the second fewest fantasy points in the league. ... Eli's target distribution over the last month: Beckham 47; Rueben Randle 25; Larry Donnell 24; Jennings 23; Preston Parker 14; Williams 12; Daniel Fells 6. ... Randle went 8-89 on 10 targets when the Redskins hosted the Giants in Week 4, but his role has been downsized dramatically since. Randle's target totals over the past three weeks are 3, 4, and 3. He has a plus draw with oft-burned Redskins RCB David Amerson, but Randle's usage in New York's offense has been too minimal for Week 15 investment. ... Donnell is a better bet for a productive fantasy semifinals game. Allowing the third most fantasy points to tight ends, Washington surrendered a 4-127-2 receiving line to Coby Fleener in Week 13, and 4-61-2 to Jared Cook last Sunday. Donnell's three-TD Week 4 performance has proven non-predictive, but did come against this same Jim Haslett defense.

Since both entered the league in 2012, Alfred Morris has 622 carries for 3,042 yards (4.89 YPC) and 22 touchdowns in Robert Griffin III's 33 career starts. Morris has rushed 207 times for 745 yards (3.60 YPC) and just five scores in his 12 career games where Kirk Cousins or Colt McCoy has started. Whether McCoy or RG3 starts has a big impact on Morris' rushing production. Against the Giants' bottom-three run defense, I like Morris as a borderline RB1 if Griffin gets the nod. He's a shaky RB2/flex if it's McCoy under center. As of this posting, McCoy (neck) appeared poised to start. ... McCoy technically exited last Sunday's loss to St. Louis due to a strained neck, but his in-game performance was such that McCoy could just as easily have been benched for poor play. The FedEx Field crowd loudly chanted "RG3, RG3, RG3" as McCoy failed to generate any semblance of offense, absorbing six sacks, throwing two picks, and fumbling once. Regardless of who's under center, the Redskins' quarterback situation should be avoided in Week 15 fantasy lineup decisions.

Saturday Update: McCoy (neck) has been medically cleared and will start against the Giants. I think McCoy's presence bodes well for Jordan Reed and perhaps DeSean Jackson, but won't help Alfred Morris or Pierre Garcon.

Jordan Reed has been targeted a team-high 29 times by McCoy this season. Reed (3-25-0) fell victim to St. Louis' stingy tight end coverage last week, but gets a plus Week 15 draw against a Giants defense surrendering the tenth most fantasy points to the position. Reed is a great bet to rebound. In spite of last week's disappointment, Reed remains a set-it-and-forget-it TE1 whenever McCoy starts. ... Garcon's usage got a major bump with DeSean Jackson (fibula) sidelined in last Sunday's loss to the Rams. With Jackson back, Garcon figures to resume his usual low-volume role. Jackson's stat lines in his two games where McCoy has started are 6-136 and 5-84-1. Garcon's in those contests are 4-47 and 3-9. Jackson is an upside WR2/3 against the G-Men. Garcon can't be trusted with fantasy title-game berths on the line.

Score Prediction: Giants 27, Redskins 13

Miami @ New England

The Dolphins have played stout pass defense all season long, but head to Foxboro for Week 15 missing FS Louis Delmas (ACL), WLB Jelani Jenkins (foot), and MLB Koa Misi (hamstring/knee). The over-under on Fins-Pats is a solid 48 with New England installed as a 7.5-point favorite, giving Bill Belichick's club a nearly 28-point team total. Tom Brady has thrown multiple touchdown passes in nine straight games, averaging 307.7 passing yards during that stretch. Miami's ability to get pressure with its front four may lower Brady's ceiling, but he's a safe and ultimately high-end QB1 play facing a banged-up Dolphins back end. ... Brady's target distribution since the Pats' Week 10 bye: Julian Edelman 45; Rob Gronkowski 38; Brandon LaFell 32; Shane Vereen 18; Tim Wright 11; Danny Amendola 7. ... Seeing consistent volume again and flashing matchup-proof ability, Edelman torched stout Chargers LCB Brandon Flowers for almost all of last week's 8-141-1 receiving line. Based on where Edelman and Dolphins LCB Brent Grimes normally line up, they project to square off often in this game. Edelman has a difficult Week 15 matchup, but has drawn double-digit targets in four of his last five games. He's a passable WR3 in non-PPR leagues and a borderline WR2 in PPR. ... LaFell runs most of his routes at right cornerbacks and will therefore see RCB Cortland Finnegan in coverage. Nursing a high ankle sprain, Finnegan hasn't played since Week 10. LaFell's matchup is better than Edelman's on paper, though the same could've been said last week and LaFell posted a disappointing 4-41-0 line in San Diego. With six touchdowns over his last eight games, LaFell remains a sturdy WR3.

The Dolphins allow the fewest fantasy points in the league to tight ends, but injuries at safety and linebacker improve Gronkowski's matchup. Gronk is the best fantasy tight end play in the league every week. It is worth noting that his stat lines are a relatively underwhelming 4-40-1, 2-27-0, and 2-42-1 in three meetings with Miami since Kevin Coyle took over as Dolphins defensive coordinator in 2012. ... Miami's run defense has collapsed the past three weeks, coughing up 528 yards and two touchdowns on 90 carries (5.87 YPC) to Broncos, Jets, and Ravens running backs. Unfortunately, Patriots backfield usage has proven virtually impossible to predict. Vereen has been held to single-digit touches in five of his last eight games. LeGarrette Blount led New England with 22 touches in Week 14, but averaged 3.30 yards per carry and could be ignored in the game plan if OC Josh McDaniels opts to attack Miami with the pass. Of course, Blount could also run wild if McDaniels takes aim with a power rushing attack. Jonas Gray has plummeted down the depth chart. You're on your own trying to start Patriots running backs in the fantasy semifinals. If forced to choose from the three, I'd take my chances with Blount.

The Patriots have faced Jay Cutler, Peyton Manning, Andrew Luck, Matthew Stafford, Aaron Rodgers, and Philip Rivers all in a row since Week 8. So it isn't a surprise that their passing production allowed on the season looks fairly mediocre. Dig a little deeper and you'll see this isn't a great matchup for Ryan Tannehill. New England has limited enemy passers to the NFL's third lowest completion rate (58.7) and the seventh lowest combined passer rating (83.9). The Pats boast one of the most imposing defensive back groups in football, and their linebackers also excel in coverage. Tannehill was unable to capitalize on back-to-back favorable draws against the Jets and Ravens the past two weeks, managing one touchdown. He hasn't cleared 250 passing yards since November 2. Perhaps Tannehill will pay dividends if this game evolves into a shootout, but my guess is he'll struggle. He's a fringe QB1 and preferable two-quarterback-league play. ... Lamar Miller has continued to show a reasonably high floor in a recent string of difficult matchups. He gets another one in Week 15. Over their last five games, the Patriots have limited enemy running backs to 249 yards and just one touchdown on 85 carries (2.93 YPC). Miller is running well enough and seeing enough usage to be treated as an every-week RB2, but a blowup game in Foxboro can't be expected.

Tannehill's target distribution since Miami's Week 5 bye: Jarvis Landry 65; Mike Wallace 64; Charles Clay 39; Brian Hartline 28; Miller 24; Brandon Gibson 22; Dion Sims 20; Damien Williams 15; Daniel Thomas 9. ... The defensive back-wide receiver matchups in this game are tough to pinpoint. Landry has emerged as Miami's top pass catcher over the course of his rookie season, but Darrelle Revis seems more likely to handle superior big-play threat Wallace. Landry runs his routes in the slot, where Patriots slot CB Kyle Arrington has excelled in his own right. RCB Brandon Browner could be left to deal with Hartline on the perimeter, or chase Clay, whom Bill Belichick has spoken of highly in the past. My best guess is Revis will mostly handle Wallace, whom I'd view as a WR3 as opposed to the WR2 he's produced as this season. ... Landry has become a consistently good bet to lead Miami in weekly receptions and should still finish in the 5-8 catch range, especially if Wallace gets the Revis treatment. Landry is a solid WR3 in PPR leagues. I might look elsewhere in non-PPR. ... The Dolphins have begun scaling back Clay's usage in favor of steadier and healthier Sims. Clay returned from hamstring and knee injuries in last week's loss to Baltimore, but only played 48% of Miami's offensive snaps. Try to avoid tight end rotations in fantasy.

Score Prediction: Patriots 28, Dolphins 17

Oakland @ Kansas City

On the road to Arrowhead, the Vegas sharps expect a major letdown for Oakland coming off last Sunday's upset of San Francisco. The Raiders are ten-point underdogs in a game with a 41.5-point over-under, third lowest of Week 15. Thus, Oakland's team total is under 16 points. The only Raiders skill-position player worth locking into fantasy lineups is Latavius Murray, who dominated snaps (82%) and touches (25) against the 49ers. Murray is a big, fast, smooth-moving specimen with a plus matchup in the semifinals. Not only did Murray burn this same Kansas City defense for 112 yards and two touchdowns on four carries in Week 12, but the Chiefs have played soft run defense all season, allowing 5.06 yards per carry to running backs and coughing up a 19-100 rushing line to someone named Kerwynn Williams last week. Based on his heavy usage and favorable Week 15 draw, Murray is an upside RB2 with a cost-friendly $6,500 price tag on FanDuel this week. ... The Raiders have given Marcel Reece a lot more passing-game usage recently, churning receiving lines of 6-48-0 and 7-64-1 in Weeks 13-14. Reece makes more sense as a complement to Murray than Darren McFadden. With very little rushing involvement, however, Reece would be a low-floor PPR flex play at Kansas City.

The Raiders deserve credit for beating the 49ers, but there are enough warning signs here that savvy fantasy owners will avoid Oakland's passing game entirely in semifinals week. The over-under and low team total are your first red flags. Additionally, the Chiefs rank No. 2 in pass defense, No. 4 in completion rate allowed (58.8), and tied for No. 3 in YPA (6.4) against. Even when Oakland beat Kansas City in the Black Hole three weeks ago, Carr played poorly, failing to top five yards per pass attempt and just barely completing over 50% of his throws. The Raiders' leading receiver was Andre Holmes at 5-55-0. ... Speaking of Holmes, he hasn't scored a touchdown since October and has cleared 40 receiving yards just the once over his last six games. He's a fantasy WR4 in an offense that no longer features him downfield. ... Mychal Rivera has been a highly inconsistent, volume-dependent fantasy option with little week-to-week predictability. Kansas City has allowed league lows in catches (36) and yards (360) to tight ends, and held Rivera to 1-8-0 on four targets in Week 12. ... Slot receiver James Jones has gone six straight games without hitting 50 yards. Aim higher.

Alex Smith hasn't been productive enough this season to be viewed as a viable Week 15 streamer, but he's certainly worth a look in two-quarterback leagues. The Raiders have allowed a 23:7 TD-to-INT ratio to opposing passers and managed 18 sacks as a team, third fewest in football. Smith's on-field performance left plenty to be desired in Kansas City's Week 12 loss in the Black Hole, but he still emerged with a pair of passing scores and 239 total yards. Smith's ceiling is always limited by his limited talent and unwillingness to pull the trigger on what he deems difficult throws. ... Expect the Chiefs to attack the Raiders with their run game. After resting his knee and ankle ailments during Wednesday's practice, Charles returned on Thursday and should be all systems go against Oakland. Charles historically lights the Raiders on fire and these clubs' Week 12 meeting was no different as Charles went for 122 total yards and a touchdown. Charles has 14 all-purpose TDs over his last ten games. Only Le'Veon Bell and perhaps Arian Foster are superior Week 15 running back plays.

Smith's target distribution over the past two weeks: Travis Kelce 12; Jason Avant 11; Charles 10; Dwayne Bowe and Albert Wilson 8; Knile Davis and De'Anthony Thomas 3; Anthony Sherman and Anthony Fasano 2. ... Coming off season highs in catches (7) and yards (110) in last week's loss to Arizona, Kelce has now led the Chiefs in receiving yards in four straight games. His snap rates are 88%, 94%, 83%, and 82% during that span, while Fasano's playing time has been severely scaled back. The Raiders are 17th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends, but matchups don't matter for Kelce if he's being fed the football. Whether he'll continue to be remains to be seen. He's a low-end TE1 with high-end TE1 upside in this game. ... The Chiefs benched Donnie Avery and started impressive UDFA Wilson over him against the Cardinals. Wilson responded with a 4-53-0 stat line on eight targets. An explosive slot-possession receiver type, 22-year-old Wilson is an intriguing Dynasty prospect in PPR leagues. ... Avant has taken on a surprisingly big role since the Chiefs signed him off the street two weeks ago, while Bowe's usage has dwindled. Both should be avoided in the fantasy football semifinals.

Score Prediction: Chiefs 24, Raiders 16

Houston @ Indianapolis

With Peyton Manning struggling and Aaron Rodgers visiting The Ralph, Andrew Luck is the top quarterback option in fantasy semifinals week. This game has a 49-point over-under -- sixth-highest of Week 15's 16-game slate -- and Indy is a 6.5-point favorite, giving the Texans a robust team total of just under 28 points. When these clubs squared off in Houston earlier this year, Luck accounted for 388 all-purpose yards and threw three touchdown passes in a 33-28 victory. ... Particularly with Reggie Wayne (triceps) appearing likely to be limited, T.Y. Hilton should be in the top-five wide receiver discussion for Week 15. Historically a monster indoors, Hilton's five career stat lines against the Texans are 9-223-1, 8-78-0, 7-121-3, 4-111-1, and 3-78-1. It's also been shown repeatedly in recent Matchups columns how Houston gets eviscerated by opposing No. 1 wideouts, presumably due to DC Romeo Crennel's archaic back-end scheme. ... Dan Herron has outplayed Trent Richardson by a wide margin since Ahmad Bradshaw went down, but one concern for Herron's going-forward playing time is his pass protection. He coughed up a sack in last week's win over Cleveland, and the Colts will need strong pass pro from their running backs on Sunday because they may have to leave defenders unblocked while doubling J.J. Watt. The good news is T-Rich was poor in pass protection against the Browns, too. Herron (49) out-snapped Richardson (33) and out-touched him 12 to 8. Herron is a passable flex play this week.

Despite the Week 14 return of Dwayne Allen from an ankle injury, impressive rookie Donte Moncrief's playing time kept on climbing in last week's win over the Browns. In order, his snap rates over the past four weeks are 17%, 39%, 53%, and 60%. Unfortunately, Moncrief's target totals during that span are 1, 4, 4, and 4. Moncrief oozes big-play ability and I'd be awfully tempted to twirl him against the Texans, but he's still just a boom-or-bust WR3 if Wayne plays in this game. ... Facing an uncertain role and ineffective to the extent that he's now hurting his own team, Wayne has managed receiving lines of 3-10-0, 4-31-0, and 1-5-0 the past three weeks while seeing a generous 22 targets. He isn't an option in the fantasy playoffs. Dealing with a triceps tear, I do believe there's some chance the Colts play Wayne ceremonially on Sunday so he can break Peyton Manning's franchise record for games played at home. ... In his return from a multi-week ankle injury, Allen logged a 70% snap rate but saw only three targets at Cleveland, catching one for five yards. Allen is a touchdown-dependent TE1, much as he's been all season. The Texans allow the fifth fewest fantasy points to tight ends. Allen went 3-49-0 on a season-high seven targets when these teams met in early October. ... With Allen back, Fleener continued to handle heavy snaps (73%) and saw ten targets, recording a 5-56-0 stat line against the Browns. Fleener caught 2-of-4 targets for 11 yards and a touchdown when these clubs played earlier in the season. Fleener is on the TE1 fringe.

Ryan Fitzpatrick predictably crashed back to Earth following his fluke Week 13 six-touchdown explosion, failing to throw a single scoring pass in last week's win over the Jaguars. He did save his fantasy game somewhat with a rushing TD. The Texans haven't been thrilled with the way Fitzpatrick has run Bill O'Brien's offense in 2014, which led to Fitzpatrick's midseason benching for Ryan Mallett. When Fitzpatrick has started, the Texans have tried to restrict his impact on games as much as possible, utilizing him as a low-volume game manager. Fitzpatrick does offer Week 15 upside based on the theory that this game could easily morph into a pass-happy shootout. He's still a shaky QB1 streamer and preferable two-quarterback-league play. ... Arian Foster has been the centerpiece of Houston's offense whenever healthy this year. He's healthy again and rolling, pasting Jacksonville for 148 total yards and a touchdown on 26 touches in Week 14. Foster dusted this same Colts defense for 141 yards from scrimmage and a pair of scores in October. Ranked 27th in Football Outsiders' run-defense DVOA, the Colts allow the seventh most fantasy points in the league to running backs and a cool 4.31 YPC average. Foster is a top-shelf RB1 whose passing-game involvement could be especially voluminous on Sunday.

Fitzpatrick's target distribution since he resumed starting two games ago: DeAndre Hopkins and Andre Johnson 15; Foster 11; Ryan Griffin and Keshawn Martin 4; Damaris Johnson 2. ... Johnson is questionable for Week 15 after suffering a scary concussion in last week's win over the Jaguars. He'll be a relatively high-floor, limited-ceiling WR3 option if he plays. If he doesn't, Hopkins might have a 12-target floor against the Colts. The Texans' tight ends are essentially nonexistent in the passing game, and they get very little from sub-package receivers Martin, Johnson, and DeVier Posey. I'll be starting Hopkins in daily leagues if it's announced Sunday that Johnson isn't playing. The Colts do not move stationary RCB Vontae Davis, so explosive sophomore Hopkins would get plenty of chances against LCB Greg Toler and slot corner Darius Butler in a potentially high-scoring game indoors.

Score Prediction: Colts 30, Texans 21

Cincinnati @ Cleveland

The Bengals blew a Week 10 home game to these same Browns by abandoning the run in a 24-3 Thursday night drubbing. We're traveling on narrative street here, but it's hard to imagine OC Hue Jackson making the same mistake again. Of particular note for fantasy leaguers, Jackson hinted on Wednesday that he had decided to go to a one-man backfield rather than continue using a two-man RBBC as was the case since Giovani Bernard returned from an early-season hip pointer. On Thursday, Gio revealed Jeremy Hill will start. The main man obviously should be Hill, who's averaged 4.5-plus yards per carry in five of his last six games, while Gio has failed to reach 3.0 YPC in four of his last five. The heavy favorite for red-zone, clock-killing, and now lead-runner work, Hill is a borderline RB1 against a Browns team that ranks 29th in Football Outsiders' run-defense DVOA and submits 4.26 yards per carry to running backs. ... Bernard's touch totals since returning three games ago have dipped steadily by the week (19, 11, 9) and will likely dip even further now. He's a low-floor, low-ceiling, and ultimately undesirable flex at Cleveland.

Andrew Luck rallied back for the win, but Cleveland's defense bullied him for most of last week's game. Luck was picked off twice, sacked for a fumble-six, and averaged 5.5 yards per pass attempt. This is a rough matchup for Andy Dalton, who arguably played the worst game by any quarterback all year when the Bengals hosted the Browns in Week 10. Cleveland ranks No. 2 in Football Outsiders' pass-defense DVOA, leads the NFL in interceptions (19), and has held opposing passers to the lowest combined QB rating (72.6) in the league. I'd avoid Dalton in two-quarterback leagues. ... Dalton's target distribution over his last three games: A.J. Green 39; Jermaine Gresham 15; Mohamed Sanu 13; Hill and Bernard 9; James Wright 7. ... Green is perhaps the hottest wideout in football and would be very tough to bench, but expectations need to be checked for Week 15. In their last three meetings, Joe Haden has held Green to receiving lines of 7-51-0, 2-7-0, and 3-23-0. Hopefully Green is "due" to beat up on Haden. And hopefully "due" is a real thing. ... I'm not sure banking on Haden's potential shutdown of Green as an indicator of a big box score for another Bengal is a good idea in the fantasy playoffs. Dalton will still force feed Green targets. Sanu's target totals the past four weeks are 6, 7, 3, and 3. Sanu didn't capitalize on Green's Week 10 dud, catching two balls for 20 scoreless yards. ... Always a weak streamer, Gresham will take on a Browns defense permitting the 10th fewest fantasy points to tight ends. Gresham has topped 50 receiving yards once through 13 games. Look elsewhere.

Johnny Manziel will make his first NFL start in an offense that will surely look very much like the one OC Kyle Shanahan designed for Robert Griffin III in 2012. You could see it in Manziel's brief Week 13 appearance on frequent bootlegs, a shotgun draw for a rushing score, and offense meant specifically to stretch the defense with its quarterback's legs. I like Manziel as a high-floor QB1 streamer because he will rush for yardage and is an aggressive passer unafraid to give Josh Gordon and Jordan Cameron chances to make plays on the ball. I don't think the fact that Cincinnati has played good pass defense this year matters for a dual-threat signal caller who probably won't throw more than 20-25 times, with 90% of them or more coming off play action with defined high-low reads. The Browns won't ask Manziel to drop back, scan, and work through progressions. ... The impact of Manziel on Gordon and Cameron remains to be seen, and will probably not be fully coherent week to week. With Griffin at quarterback, Shanahan schemed the ball voluminously to his X receivers -- most notably Pierre Garcon -- feeding them targets on high-percentage routes like drags, screens, and shallow crosses. Shanahan did that for Gordon in Weeks 12-13, but not as much in Week 14. I'd want to start Gordon in fantasy this week because his talent is enormous and Manziel showed a willingness to let his big receiver "go get it" at Texas A&M (Mike Evans). I would suspect he treats Gordon similarly.

Cleveland's passing game is a virtual lock to lose volume going from pocket passer Brian Hoyer to runner Manziel. Because slot receiver Andrew Hawkins doesn't dominate with size or win in the red zone, he requires heavy volume to pay fantasy dividends. Hawkins' target totals since Gordon returned from suspension are 5, 3, and 7 after he saw eight-plus targets in all but one of Cleveland's initial nine games. Hawkins is still useful to the Browns. He just isn't a good fantasy bet any longer. ... Cameron's volume is similarly a question mark, though he figures to see more than Hawkins. Back healthy in Week 14, Cameron played 79% of Cleveland's offensive snaps and led the Browns in receiving yards (41). We do know this is a good matchup for Cameron against a Bengals defense that's allowed the 10th most receptions (63) and seventh most yards (779) to tight ends. ... I think the most immediate beneficiaries of Manziel's installation will be Isaiah Crowell and Terrance West. Manziel's running threat creates an added stress on opposing defenses that is borne out in their spiked rushing efficiency. We've seen the impact of RG3 on Alfred Morris in Washington, and Chris Johnson rushing for 2,000 yards with Vince Young at quarterback in Tennessee. West (15 touches) and Crowell (14) were utilized in a near-even timeshare during last week's loss to Indianapolis. Because of his superior talent, Crowell is the superior fantasy option and an RB2 against Cincinnati, which ranks 30th in Football Outsiders' run-defense DVOA and got torn to smithereens by Le'Veon Bell (26-185-2) last week. West is a lower-ceiling flex.

Score Prediction: Browns 24, Bengals 21

Jacksonville @ Baltimore

The over-under on Jags-Ravens is 45 points with Baltimore installed as a whopping 13.5-point favorite. The Vegas sharps are forecasting a blowout with Jacksonville carrying a putrid team total of under 16 points. Fire up the Ravens' fantasy defense and avoid Jaguars wherever possible. ... Hitting a wall late in his first-ever season as a full-time featured running back, Denard Robinson finally capitulated this week, being diagnosed with a mid-foot sprain that sent him to I.R. He had managed 99 scoreless yards on 35 carries (2.83 YPC) over the past three weeks. The Jags will presumably turn to a three-back timeshare of Toby Gerhart, Storm Johnson, and Jordan Todman against Baltimore's top-four run defense. Avoid. ... Blake Bortles has accounted for 17 turnovers compared to 10 touchdowns on the season, absorbing four or more sacks in six of his last eight games. He's shown no ability to threaten defenses outside the numbers, which is where the Ravens' defensive vulnerability is due to their poor cornerback situation. This is a major mismatch in favor of Baltimore, which ranks sixth in the NFL in sacks (37) and will likely eliminate Jacksonville's run game, rendering Jacksonville's offense one dimensional. ... I can't imagine starting any Jaguars wide receiver in any format this week, but here is Bortles' target distribution since Jacksonville's Week 11 bye, in case you were curious: Allen Hurns 22; Marqise Lee 21; Cecil Shorts 20; Shoelace 12; Marcedes Lewis 10; Gerhart 7; Todman 6.

Committed to a run-first attack, Baltimore ranks fifth in the NFL in rushing offense and eighth in rushing attempts. At home in a game they should control from start to finish, the Ravens figure to saddle up Justin Forsett and ride him against a Jaguars team that ranks No. 20 in Football Outsiders' run-defense DVOA and allows the sixth most fantasy points to running backs, including an AFC-high 80 receptions. OC Gary Kubiak scaled back Forsett's workload in last week's win over Miami after he was listed as questionable with a knee injury, but Forsett still emerged with 78 total yards and a touchdown. With Lorenzo Taliaferro (knee/ankle) out this week, look for Forsett's usage to go back to normal. ... Joe Flacco gets a tougher draw against an upstart Jaguars pass defense that's allowed just one passing TD over its last two games and ranks third in the NFL in sacks (39). Flacco will be without top pass-game playmaker Torrey Smith (knee), whom Baltimore will replace with career special teamer Kamar Aiken. Flacco has arguably had his best NFL season, but it's come in more of a low-volume passing role in a shot-play designed offense with the ground game as its foundation. The Ravens are 20th in the league in pass attempts. Flacco is a fine starter in two-quarterback leagues, but this is a tricky week to stream him.

Flacco's target distribution since the Ravens' Week 11 bye: Steve Smith Sr. 21; Torrey 14; Aiken 11; Owen Daniels 10; Marlon Brown, Kyle Juszcyzyk, and Forsett 7; Jacoby Jones 3. ... Smith Sr. saw 11 targets with Torrey in and out of last week's lineup, his highest total since Week 1. He's a sensible WR3 option with opportunity-based upside this week. ... Daniels' role appears to have been downsized since his midseason knee scope. His target totals over Baltimore's last four games are 4, 5, 3, and 2. Scoreless in nine of his last ten games and held to 30 yards or fewer in four straight, Daniels is a mid-range TE2 against a Jaguars defense that ranks 16th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends. ... As Torrey played only 15 snaps in last Sunday's win over the Dolphins, Aiken logged a 73% snap rate and parlayed seven targets into a 6-65-1 receiving line. Aiken does have impressive measurables, running a 4.45 forty at the 2011 Central Florida Pro Day with a 10-foot-8 broad jump at 6-foot-1, 213. The 25-year-old might be a better wide receiver prospect than given credit for, but he'd be very hard to trust in the fantasy semifinals. More-physically imposing slot receiver Marlon Brown (6'4/213) could just as easily out-target Aiken against the Jags.

Saturday Update: Torrey (knee) was surprisingly listed as probable on the injury report after returning to practice on Friday. Beat writers noted Smith struggled to move comfortably on his sprained knee. It sounds like he'll be active against the Jaguars, but might rotate in and out ot the lineup again. I'd avoid Torrey in the fantasy semifinals.

Score Prediction: Ravens 24, Jaguars 14

Green Bay @ Buffalo

On a roll like he probably devours them at the dinner table, Eddie Lacy has 11 touchdowns over his last 10 games and 100-plus total yards in six consecutive weeks. He's averaging 5.05 yards per carry since September. As the Broncos showed in Week 14, the best way to attack Buffalo's defense at this stage of the season is on the ground. C.J. Anderson and Juwan Thompson combined for a 25-121-3 rushing line against the Bills last Sunday, and over the past seven games Buffalo has permitted a total of 667 yards and seven TDs on 147 carries (4.54 YPC) to running backs. Expect Fat Eddie to keep eating. ... The Packers mixed in James Starks a bit more than usual in last Monday night's win over Atlanta, giving Starks ten carries in their 43-37 win. He hadn't seen more than eight runs in any game since October 2. Starks got 41 of his 75 yards on a clock-killing run with 1:51 left and was in the game only because Lacy was nursing a hip bruise. Starks' involvement has been too light and unreliable for flex usage in the fantasy playoffs. ... Nothing about Aaron Rodgers' matchup suggests he'll have a big Week 15 game, beyond the fact that he's the best quarterback in football. The Bills shut down Peyton Manning last week, rank No. 5 versus the pass, are really tough to play against at Ralph Wilson Stadium, and lead the league in sacks (48). With a 35:3 TD-to-INT ratio on the season and a weekly average of 280.9 yards, I'd probably view Rodgers as a high-floor, somewhat limited-ceiling top-five QB1 this week.

Thursday Update: Keep a close eye on Lacy (hip), whose comments following a "limited" practice on Thursday didn't exactly sound like they were coming from a player who's confident in his own health. As noted above, Buffalo poses an easier matchup for running backs than popular perception might lead you to believe. If Lacy starts, he's an RB1 against the Bills. If Lacy is out, Starks becomes an excellent flex play in semifinals week.

Saturday Update: Lacy is listed as probable and will be active against the Bills, but beat writers are anticipating a 50-50 timeshare between Lacy and Starks. Downgrade Lacy to an RB2. I still think he'll still be a good bet for a goal-line plunge in this plus matchup. Starks is a high-risk flex option.

Rodgers' target distribution since Green Bay's Week 9 bye: Jordy Nelson 44; Randall Cobb 40; Lacy 24; Davante Adams 23; Andrew Quarless 16; Richard Rodgers 9; Starks 8. ... In RCB Stephon Gilmore (6'1/190) and LCB Corey Graham (6'0/195), the Bills have size-gifted corners who've both earned plus grades from Pro Football Focus on the season. Graham has been especially good, grading out No. 7 among 113 qualifying cornerbacks in coverage. You're not betting on Jordy because he's a lock to go wild against Buffalo's secondary. You're starting him because he's the No. 2 overall fantasy wideout and is heavily targeted by the best quarterback in the game. ... Running roughly 70% of his routes between the numbers, Cobb gets the best Week 15 matchup in Green Bay's pass-catcher corps. Although slot corner Nickell Robey has played better lately, he's been the weakest link in Buffalo's cornerback corps and had trouble with both Emmanuel Sanders and Wes Welker last week. On pace for a career-best 85-1,206-12 receiving line this season, Cobb is a borderline WR1. ... Adams' snap rates over the past three weeks are 71%, 80%, and 72%. Unfortunately, his target totals have been less reliable at 4, 10, and 4. Having topped 50 yards in 4-of-13 games this year, Adams is a WR4 in this tough matchup for wideouts. ... The Bills are 17th in receptions (58), 28th in yards (528), and 31st in touchdowns (2) allowed to tight ends. Quarless and rookie TE Rodgers are safe to ignore in the fantasy semifinals.

Bills-Packers has a lofty 50.5-point over-under with Green Bay as a 4.5-point favorite. The Bills' team total is 23 points, not terrible but not quite exciting. I think the most stable fantasy option on Buffalo's side is Fred Jackson, whom the Bills have now used as a true feature back in two straight games. F-Jax piled up a team-high 42 touches and played 75% of Buffalo's offensive snaps in Weeks 13-14. Beyond change-of-pace and breather-back work, Anthony Dixon and Bryce Brown have hardly seen the field. This is a solid matchup for Jackson against a Green Bay team that ranks 23rd in Football Outsiders' run-defense DVOA and permits 4.23 yards per carry to running backs. I like Jackson as a flex play in non-PPR leagues and as a legitimate RB2 in PPR. Jackson is a high-floor option on FanDuel, where his price is a cost-friendly $6,600. ... Kyle Orton has managed a 4:4 TD-to-INT ratio and 242-yard average over the past month. It's conceivable he'll rack up yardage if this game turns pass heavy, sort of like last week in Denver. The Packers' pass defense did get its clock cleaned by Matt Ryan last Monday night, but Orton is an inferior player with inferior weapons, and for the most part Green Bay's defensive strength has been versus the pass.

Orton's target distribution since the Bills' Week 9 bye: Sammy Watkins 43; Robert Woods 35; Chris Hogan 32; Jackson 27; Scott Chandler 26; Bryce Brown 20. ... Some order was restored in Buffalo's pass-catcher corps against the Broncos. Watkins rebounded from a month-long slump to post a 7-127 number, though he got almost all of his production against rookie RCB Bradley Roby as the Broncos never adjusted to take away the Bills' top weapon. In Week 15, Watkins projects to run most of his routes against Packers RCB Sam Shields, whom Green Bay benched in favor of Davon House during last week's 11-259-1 demolition by Julio Jones. With Orton always more likely to check to high-percentage routes rather than test outside the numbers, I'm still viewing Watkins as a boom-or-bust WR3. ... Woods has been consistent this season but also pretty consistently underwhelming. He showed his floor in Denver, managing 34 scoreless yards on four targets. Woods has gone over 80 yards once this year and twice through two NFL seasons. Fantasy owners with designs on a championship-game berth should probably aim higher. ... The Packers are 18th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends. Just barely a top-20 fantasy tight end on the year, Chandler is a low-end streamer option for Week 15. Along with slot man Hogan's, Chandler's Week 14 stats were puffed up by Orton's season-high 57 pass attempts. Role players all season, Chandler and Hogan haven't suddenly become featured players in Buffalo's passing game.

Score Prediction: Packers 24, Bills 20

Tampa Bay @ Carolina

Finally relatively healthy in the front seven and finding a consistent cornerback duo in LCB Josh Norman and RCB Bene Benwikere, Carolina has begun playing competitive pass defense. The Panthers held Drew Brees to disappointing fantasy numbers twice over their last five games and haven't allowed more than two touchdown passes in a game since Aaron Rodgers threw three against them in Week 7. Carolina obviously isn't the shutdown defense it was throughout 2013, but it's an above-average group with talented enough personnel to cause problems for Tampa's dysfunctional offense, where porous line play has led to frequent sacks and turnovers. It's fair to wonder if Josh McCown will make it through this game without getting benched. McCown is 60-of-116 passing (51.7%) for 781 yards (6.73 YPA) with three TDs and five INTs over his last three games. Although McCown has done well to deliver the football to Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson since returning to the starting lineup five games ago, he's committed nine turnovers during that stretch while absorbing 18 sacks. Consider Carolina's defense as a Week 15 streamer.

The Bucs' backfield should continue to be avoided in the fantasy postseason. OC Marcus Arroyo has shown a willingness to abandon his run game at the drop of a hat, while Doug Martin and rookie Charles Sims have formed an unproductive RBBC. Sims (62.5%) out-snapped Martin (37.5%) in last week's loss to Detroit, but both finished with just six touches. Bobby Rainey may also return from his ankle injury this week, further muddling the rotation. ... McCown's target distribution over his last five starts: Evans 49; V-Jax 47; Louis Murphy 22; Sims 16; Austin Seferian-Jenkins and Rainey 14; Martin 2. ... Jackson's wild week-to-week inconsistency and two touchdowns on the season have rendered him a boom-or-bust WR3. His 17 targets in last week's loss to Detroit were a function of Tampa Bay giving up on the run and force feeding footballs to their big receivers. ... Whereas Jackson's target totals have been all over the map on a game-to-game basis, Evans' are more steady. He has at least nine in six consecutive weeks and ten touchdowns over his last nine games. Evans is a high-floor WR2 with WR1 upside every week. ... Seferian-Jenkins is tentatively due to return from his back injury this week. Like most rookie tight ends, ASJ was struggling on the field pre-injury and the Panthers are 20th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends. I'm high on Seferian-Jenkins' long-term prospects. I wouldn't touch him as a Week 15 streamer.

Following Cam Newton's Tuesday car accident, the Panthers will start Derek Anderson versus Tampa Bay in a game with a 41.5-point over-under, tied with Oakland-Kansas City for third lowest of Week 15. Anderson is worth a look in daily leagues at his minimum or near-minimum cost -- perhaps in a stack with Kelvin Benjamin or Greg Olsen -- but I wouldn't get cute trying to stream Carolina's backup quarterback in the fantasy playoffs. Anderson is a relatively undesirable two-QB-league start. ... Where Anderson's insertion may hurt Carolina's offense is in the run game. Cam's dual-threat presence will be missed as an added stress on the defense. Jonathan Stewart managed 20 yards on nine carries when Anderson started Week 1, although he was playing behind DeAngelo Williams at the time, and Williams racked up 72 yards on 14 runs (5.14 YPC) against the Bucs. Stewart's matchup isn't nearly as good as last week's in New Orleans -- Tampa Bay is quietly 12th in Football Outsiders' run-defense DVOA, whereas the Saints are dead last -- but Stewart's anticipated workload with Williams (hand) expected to miss another game locks him in as a passable RB2. Volume is on J-Stew's side in a game where Carolina should be able to feed its rushing attack. I'd expect him to see 18-plus touches versus Tampa Bay. He'll be a solid bet for a goal-line plunge.

Anderson's target distribution in his Week 1 start against these same Buccaneers: Greg Olsen 11; Kelvin Benjamin 8; Jerricho Cotchery and Mike Tolbert 4; Stewart 3; Williams 1. ... Olsen went 8-83-1 against Tampa Bay on Opening Day and probably has the best Week 15 matchup in Carolina's pass-catcher corps. Schematically, Lovie Smith's Tampa-2 defense willingly concedes possession-route receptions to tight ends. On the season, the Bucs have permitted the fourth most catches (70) and 10th most yards (709) in the league to the position. Olsen is a top-five TE1 in the fantasy semifinals. ... Benjamin's Week 1 stat line against the Bucs was 6-92-1. Anderson has thrown four touchdown passes this year and three of them have gone to Carolina's imposing first-round rookie. Newton's loss removes all-purpose playmaking ability from the Panthers' offense, but I'm not convinced Anderson is a huge downgrade purely as a passer. Benjamin is an upside WR2 versus Tampa.

Score Prediction: Panthers 23, Buccaneers 17

4:05PM ET Games

NY Jets @ Tennessee

Pitting previously-benched quarterbacks against each other, Sunday's Jets-Titans game has a 42-point over-under, third lowest among Sunday and Monday's games. Fantasy owners should look elsewhere for upside. ... The way to attack Tennessee is on the ground, where DC Ray Horton's defense has hemorrhaged 951 yards and eight TDs on 192 carries (4.95 YPC) to running backs across its last six games. This plays into the hands of the Jets, who've piled up a whopping 91 runs compared to 42 passes since reinstalling Geno Smith at quarterback on a front office mandate two games ago. New York is a lock to stay committed to its rushing attack without Percy Harvin (ankle). The trick is forecasting which Jets back will have a big day against the Titans, or whether they'll essentially cancel each other out. Chris Ivory turned 17 touches into 77 yards in last week's loss to the Vikings, playing 35% of New York's offensive snaps. Chris Johnson totaled 66 yards on 18 touches, logging 42% of the downs. Pass-pro specialist Bilal Powell stayed involved with a 25% snap rate and two carries. Johnson is your man if you're willing to hang your hat on the "revenge narrative" against his former team. Ivory is the better back. ... New York's passing offense is otherwise hands off with its volume in the gutter, but I don't think it would be crazy to twirl Eric Decker on FanDuel this week at his $6,000 cost. He's worth a look in deeper leagues as a WR4/flex. With Harvin out of the picture, Decker should see a generous target percentage versus struggling Titans LCB Jason McCourty, who's been dusted for stat lines of 11-130-1 (Odell Beckham) and 7-53-1 (Andre Johnson) the past two weeks.

Friday Update: Harvin practiced on a limited basis Friday and declared himself ready to roll against the Titans, after Rex Ryan indicated early in the week that Harvin would not play. I think the Jets' passing game should be avoided in Week 15 fantasy lineup decisions. I still expect New York to attempt to gash Tennessee with a high-volume rushing attack.

Back in the lineup following Zach Mettenberger's shoulder separation, Jake Locker enters Week 15 with four touchdowns and eight turnovers across his last five games. Wildly injury prone and ineffective, Locker has fallen flat in previous favorable matchups with the Cowboys and Texans. He definitely won't have Justin Hunter (I.R.) on Sunday and may not have Kendall Wright (wrist) either. Even in a plus matchup with the Jets' tissue-soft pass defense, Locker is difficult to get behind as a two-quarterback-league play. ... The "only-guy-to-throw-to" logic didn't work out last week, as Delanie Walker went 4-27-0 against the Giants. He did see a team-high 10 targets, however, and is in the same situation this week against a Jets defense that permits the fifth most fantasy points to tight ends, including a league-high 12 touchdowns. Walker's stat lines in Locker's four early-season starts were 3-37-1, 10-142-1, 4-54-0, and 4-47-0. At the weakest position in fantasy football, Walker remains squarely in play as an attractive TE1. ... With Wright out of the lineup last week, Nate Washington was targeted only three times, securing all three for 56 scoreless yards. Derek Hagan went 6-62 on seven targets. Washington, 31, and Hagan, 30, are both late-career possession receivers. Best of luck if you need to use either one of them. ... Fantasy football's most disappointing rookie, Bishop Sankey has now been held to 12 touches or fewer in four straight games. Locker came off the bench in Week 14 to lead the Titans in rushing. Avoid Tennessee's black-hole backfield against the Jets' top-five run defense.

Score Prediction: Jets 20, Titans 17

Denver @ San Diego

It's become awfully difficult to know what to expect from the Chargers' offense. Philip Rivers has been held to one or fewer touchdown passes in four of his last five games, and San Diego's injury-ravaged offensive line has become a liability to the extent that it's affecting both the run and pass games. Chargers coach Mike McCoy's usual plan of attack against Denver is to play ball-control offense, slow down the game, and keep Peyton Manning off the field as much as possible. McCoy is now dealing with a nicked-up Ryan Mathews (leg) and a pair of role-player backs in Donald Brown and Branden Oliver in reserve. My guess is McCoy will resort to attacking the Broncos with the pass, although that may not end well versus Von Miller, DeMarcus Ware, and one of the league's top secondaries. Rivers is a low-end QB1, but with plenty of upside if this game evolves into a shootout. The over-under is a robust 51 points. ... Even if Mathews plays, I'd find it hard to trust any Chargers back in the fantasy semifinals. Mathews doesn't play well when he's beat up, and the Broncos rank No. 2 in Football Outsiders' run-defense DVOA while limiting running backs to a 3.25 YPC average. If Mathews does not play, I'd expect Brown and Oliver to form a committee. Brown recently passed Oliver on the depth chart and would presumably be first in line for backfield work.

Rivers' target distribution since San Diego's Week 10 bye: Keenan Allen 40; Eddie Royal 24; Malcom Floyd 23; Antonio Gates 21; Brown 11; Oliver and Ladarius Green 9; Mathews 6. ... Allen got erased by Darrelle Revis in Week 14, managing three receiving yards on three targets. I'm skeptical of how predictive stats like this are, but Allen has a productive history against Denver, recording stat lines of 9-73-1, 6-142-2, and 2-29-2 in his last three Broncos games. Allen is an upside WR3 in Week 15. ... The Broncos permit the eighth most fantasy points to tight ends and allowed a pair of TDs to Gates in Week 8. Gates' touchdown dependency renders him a boom-or-bust TE1, but he's pretty much always a quality fantasy option for non-Gronk and non-Jimmy Graham owners. ... Despite a recent uptick in targets, Royal has topped 50 receiving yards once since September. He's not easy to support as more than a fantasy WR5. ... Floyd has the toughest matchup in San Diego's pass-catcher corps. He'll primarily run routes against Broncos LCB Aqib Talib, a plus-sized (6'1/202) and physical press corner capable of neutralizing bigger receivers. Just as he's been all year, Floyd is a fringe WR3 in non-PPR leagues and a WR4 in PPR.

This is an obvious bounce-back spot for Peyton Manning coming off his scoreless Week 14. Pass-rush deficient and leaky in the back half, San Diego has just seven sacks over its last eight games while permitting a 16:4 TD-to-INT ratio to quarterbacks. The Broncos do seem genuinely committed to a more-balanced offense during the winter months, but Peyton should have a floor of 250 passing yards and a pair of touchdowns in this cupcake matchup. The Chargers have one of the QB-friendliest defenses in the league. Peyton lit them up for 286 yards and three TDs in these clubs' October date. ... After resting on Wednesday, C.J. Anderson (ankle) returned to practice Thursday and is on track to start in San Diego. The Chargers have played top-14 run defense per Football Outsiders' metrics, but matchups don't matter for high-volume workhorses in Peyton Manning offenses. Anderson is a mid-range RB1. Expect Juwan Thompson to continue handling breather-back work.

Chargers LCB Brandon Flowers was out when San Diego visited Denver in Week 8. Peyton went after fill-in LCB Richard Marshall with so much success that Marshall was benched and ultimately released, never playing for the Chargers again after that game. Emmanuel Sanders (9-120-3) was the box-score beneficiary. In this game, I think Manning will attack burnable Chargers RCB Shareece Wright, SS Marcus Gilchrist, and third safety Jahleel Addae. The Broncos' pass catchers move around enough that Peyton could do that with any of Sanders, Demaryius Thomas, and Julius Thomas. They're all top-notch options in the fantasy football playoffs. ... Orange Julius is indeed expected to play without limitations on Sunday after missing the past three weeks with a recurring ankle injury. It's worth noting that San Diego allows the ninth fewest fantasy points tight ends, although Rob Gronkowski did go 8-87-1 against them last week. Either way, I think Julius is a top-five fantasy tight end play any time he suits up. I'd probably have Rob Gronkowski, Jimmy Graham, Martellus Bennett, and perhaps Greg Olsen over Julius this week. ... Wes Welker woke up for six catches and 82 yards in last week's win over Buffalo, although it came with Julius on the sideline and Demaryius nursing an apparent foot injury. It was also Welker's first game over 60 yards all season. With two touchdowns through 11 appearances, Welker was safe to drop across the board long ago.

Score Prediction: Broncos 30, Chargers 23

4::25PM ET Games

Minnesota @ Detroit

Increasingly composed and gaining confidence, Teddy Bridgewater has made enough strides over the course of his rookie year that Dynasty owners should have going-forward optimism. I wonder if it's any coincidence Bridgewater's improved play has coincided with the Vikings' demotion of Cordarrelle Patterson. Much of Bridgewater's success has come against lesser defenses, however, and his hot stretch will be put to the test Sunday in Detroit. The Lions rank No. 1 in points allowed and No. 2 in total defense, are tied for second in the league in interceptions (17), and rank seventh in sacks (35). Bridgewater was picked off three times and absorbed an unholy eight sacks when these clubs met in Week 6. Bridgewater is a dicey two-quarterback-league play at Ford Field. As usual, the Lions' fantasy defense is a recommended play. ... The Vikings continued to use Matt Asiata as their feature back in Week 14 against the Jets, and Asiata continued to plod. Afterwards, coach Mike Zimmer expressed that he wants Asiata's role reduced. Expect to see more of Ben Tate and Joe Banyard sprinkled in against Detroit. Minnesota seems poised to employ a three-back timeshare and the Lions have the best run defense in football. Vikings running backs should be avoided in semifinals week.

Bridgewater's target distribution since the Vikings' Week 10 bye: Charles Johnson 30; Greg Jennings 21; Asiata 13; Kyle Rudolph 10; Jarius Wright 9; Patterson 6; Rhett Ellison 5; Banyard 4. ... Earning every-week WR3 treatment in fantasy leagues, Johnson's stat lines since Minnesota's open date are 6-87, 3-52-1, 2-41-0, and 4-103-1. Despite their stout pass defense overall, the Lions have permitted wide receiver lines of 10-159-0 (Vincent Jackson), 4-45-2 (Mike Evans), 9-71-2 (Alshon Jeffery), 9-98 (Brandon LaFell), and 2-54-2 (Michael Floyd) over the last month. ... Jennings went 3-33-0 against Detroit in Week 6, and that was before Johnson came on the scene to dominate targets as a legitimate No. 1 wide receiver. Jennings is a WR4/5 for the fantasy playoffs. ... Rudolph has been a frustratingly small part of Minnesota's offense since returning from sports hernia surgery four games ago. His target totals during that span are 0, 6, 3, and 2. The Lions are 15th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends, giving Rudolph a middling matchup. He's a low-ceiling, touchdown-dependent TE1 streamer.

Matthew Stafford's fantasy season will ultimately be chalked up as a disappointment, but he's played far better of late. In Weeks 13-14, Stafford lit up the Bears and Bucs defenses for 60-of-79 passing (75.6%), 701 yards (8.88 YPA), and a 5:0 TD-to-INT ratio. The Lions are healthy on the offensive line and in their pass-catcher corps, and volume has been there for Stafford all year. He has 30-plus pass attempts in every 2014 game. The Vikings have played up-and-down pass defense, where they rank 16th in Football Outsiders' DVOA metric. Stafford also benefits from this game being played indoors. I think Stafford has earned mid-range QB1 treatment for the final two weeks of the fantasy season. The Lions play the Bears in fantasy title week. ... This game sets up particularly well for Joique Bell, who despite Reggie Bush's Week 14 return continued to handle the heavy majority of Lions backfield work. Bell played 62% of Detroit's offensive snaps, parlaying 23 touches into 133 yards and two touchdowns. Bush logged a 34% snap rate and managed 34 yards on 12 touches against Tampa Bay. The Vikings permit 4.55 yards per carry and the ninth most fantasy points in the league to running backs. I like Bell as an RB2 and would lean away from Bush in flex decisions.

Stafford's target distribution since the Lions' Week 9 bye: Calvin Johnson 62; Golden Tate 41; Theo Riddick 22; Eric Ebron 19; Joique 17; Jeremy Ross 10. ... Since returning from his early-season ankle injury five weeks ago, Megatron has seen between 9 and 16 targets in every game. He's the No. 4 fantasy wideout during that span, behind only Jordy Nelson, Julio Jones, and Mike Evans. Vikings RCB Xavier Rhodes poses a significant obstacle, but Minnesota uses Rhodes similarly to how the Colts employ Vontae Davis, always keeping Rhodes at right cornerback. Johnson runs routes on both sides of the formation and projects to get more chances against burnable LCB Josh Robinson based on where he usually lines up. It's worth noting that Vikings coach Mike Zimmer never used cornerbacks to "shadow" top receivers during his six-year run as Bengals defensive coordinator. Megatron is comfortably a top-five wideout play in Week 15. ... The road has been rockier for Tate since Megatron got healthy. He has five or fewer targets in two of his last four games and hasn't scored a touchdown since October. Ideally, owners with fantasy championship plans would be considering Tate as a WR3 as opposed to locking him in as a WR2. Tate has a mediocre Week 15 matchup against Vikings slot corner Captain Munnerlyn, who has played better recently after a slow start to the season. Normally, Munnerlyn is one of the NFL's tougher inside cover men. ... Ebron and Brandon Pettigrew should be easy to avoid this week against a Vikings defense permitting the sixth fewest fantasy points to tight ends.

Score Prediction: Lions 24, Vikings 17

San Francisco @ Seattle

The 49ers-Seahawks over-under is an anemic 38 points with Seattle as a 9.5-point favorite. The Niners' team total is just above 14 points, the lowest for any team all year. You'll want to avoid 49ers skill-position players in this one. Since RCB Byron Maxwell returned from a calf injury in Week 10, the Seahawks have held enemy quarterbacks to a combined 80-of-135 passing (59.2%) for 757 yards (5.61 YPA) and a 3:5 TD-to-INT ratio. Seattle also has ten sacks over its last three games. Just as concerning for Colin Kaepernick's outlook are his historical struggles against Pete Carroll's defenses. Across five career starts versus Seattle, Kaepernick is 77-of-146 passing (52.7%) for 820 yards (5.62 YPA) with a 3:9 TD-to-INT ratio. Kaepernick is just a low-end two-quarterback-league play in this matchup. ... The prospects are similarly bleak for San Francisco's run game. Since getting back MLB Bobby Wagner from a toe injury three games ago, Seattle has limited 49ers, Cardinals, and Eagles running backs to 138 scoreless yards on 52 carries (2.65 YPC). The Niners have never used Frank Gore much as a receiver under Jim Harbaugh, and he's had little success running on the Seahawks recently. Gore's last four rushing lines against Seattle are 9-16-0, 17-110-0, 11-14-0, and 10-28-0. Aim higher with your flex play.

Carlos Hyde's touch totals the past five weeks are 4, 10, 7, 8, and 3. He probably won't be a fantasy option before 2015, when Gore seems certain to leave in free agency. ... Kaepernick's target distribution since the 49ers' Week 8 bye: Anquan Boldin 54; Michael Crabtree 49; Vernon Davis 24; Stevie Johnson 18; Brandon Lloyd 10; Gore and Bruce Miller 9; Hyde 7. ... Facing the Seahawks four times the past two seasons, including playoffs, Boldin has managed stat lines of 3-18-0, 5-53-1, 6-93-0, and 1-7-0. As the Seahawks have begun using Byron Maxwell at slot corner with Tharold Simon locking down RCB, Boldin gets a very difficult Week 15 matchup. Maxwell held previously red-hot Jordan Matthews to a 2-23-0 number on five targets last week. ... Perimeter receiver Crabtree will primarily run his pass patterns at Simon and LCB Richard Sherman. Among fantasy's biggest disappointments this year, Crabtree is on pace for just 779 receiving yards and five touchdowns. He's a WR4. ... Davis hasn't been targeted in the red zone since Week 1. The Seahawks allow the 10th fewest receptions (53) and third fewest yards (478) in the league to tight ends. Davis caught two passes for 13 yards when these teams played on Thanksgiving.

The last four scores of 49ers-Seahawks games are 23-17, 19-17, 29-3, and 19-3. There is little history here of big-time fantasy production. Expectations should generally be checked for Seattle and San Francisco players across the board. Marshawn Lynch did do some damage when these clubs played on Thanksgiving night, rushing 20 times for 104 yards (5.20 YPC) with a seven-yard reception. Lynch has handled at least 18 touches in six straight games and is a high-floor RB1 play against the Niners. Additionally, Lynch is always a good bet to hit pay dirt at CenturyLink Field. Across 30 home games since the Seahawks traded for him in 2011, Lynch has scored 35 touchdowns. He's managed 17 TDs across 29 away games during that same span. ... Wilson has made six career starts versus 49ers DC Vic Fangio's defense since entering the league. In them, he's gone 78-of-135 passing (57.8%) for 1,084 yards (8.03 YPA) and an 8:4 TD-to-INT ratio, with 32 scrambles for 109 scoreless yards. They're fine real-life numbers, but not entirely inspiring for Wilson's Week 15 fantasy outlook. He's on the QB1 borderline against a 49ers defense that ranks No. 4 against the pass, No. 5 in interceptions (16), No. 6 in completion rate allowed (59.1), and No. 4 in passer rating against (80.7).

Wilson's target distribution since the Percy Harvin trade: Doug Baldwin 53; Jermaine Kearse 42; Lynch 25; Paul Richardson 24; Luke Willson 21; Cooper Helfet 17; Robert Turbin 16; Tony Moeaki 10; Kevin Norwood 8. ... Baldwin's targets and production have been inconsistent since the Harvin deal. He's seen as few as two in a game during that span, and as many as ten. Baldwin went 2-28 on four targets when these clubs squared off on Thanksgiving. He's the best fantasy bet among Seahawks pass catchers in this game, but that's not saying much. ... Kearse has underwhelmed despite a big bump in usage. After scoring six touchdowns as a part-time player last year, including regular season and playoffs, Kearse has one TD through 13 games in 2014. He's a limited talent with a tough Week 15 matchup against stingy 49ers LCB Perrish Cox. ... With Helfet (ankle) still on the shelf last week, Willson handled 62% of Seattle's offensive snaps, and Moeaki 50.5%. Moeaki saw three targets, and Willson two. Seahawks tight ends should be avoided in fantasy football.

Score Prediction: Seahawks 24, 49ers 13

Sunday Night Football

Dallas @ Philadelphia

In a battle of teams that just played on Thanksgiving, Sunday night's Cowboys-Eagles game has a 55-point over-under, second highest of Week 15 behind only Steelers-Falcons. Because the Eagles play fast and generally force their opponents to play fast, too, this is a game to consider stacking in daily leagues. ... Dallas has been particularly vulnerable to the pass of late, allowing enemy quarterbacks to go 171-of-249 passing (68.7%) for 1,982 yards (7.96 YPA) and a 12:5 TD-to-INT ratio over its last seven games. This is a good week to start Mark Sanchez, who accounted for two touchdowns and 245 all-purpose yards against the Cowboys at their place two weeks ago. Now back home in a projected high-scoring affair, Sanchez is an easy top-dozen quarterback play in Week 15. ... LeSean McCoy was the more dominant Eagles skill-position player when these clubs met two Thursdays ago, pasting Dallas for a 25-159-1 rushing number. Despite last week's clunker versus the Seahawks, McCoy carries a robust 4.82 YPC average across his last eight games. On the season, Dallas ranks 25th in Football Outsiders' run-defense DVOA while permitting 4.69 yards per carry to running backs. Expect a bounce-back game for Shady on Sunday Night Football. ... Darren Sproles' touch totals are 7, 2, 4, 9, 4, and 4 on offense over the Eagles' last six games. Primarily a special teamer, Sproles has played just 25% of the Eagles' offensive snaps the past two games. He isn't a flex option in the fantasy postseason.

Sanchez's target distribution since Nick Foles broke his collarbone: Jeremy Maclin 46; Jordan Matthews 38; Riley Cooper 31; Brent Celek 21; Zach Ertz 20; Sproles 18; Josh Huff 7; McCoy 5. ... Maclin gets the best Week 15 matchup in Philly's wideout corps. He will run most of his routes at Cowboys LCB Brandon Carr, who's played a leading role in surrendering stat lines of 5-119 (Cecil Shorts), 10-146-2 (Odell Beckham), 8-108 (Maclin), and 6-95-1 (Alshon Jeffery) over his last four games. Carr is PFF's No. 107 coverage cornerback among 113 qualifiers. ... Seahawks slot corner Byron Maxwell got the best of Matthews in Week 14, holding the impressive rookie to a 2-23-0 number on five targets. Matthews' matchup is slightly better this week, taking on Cowboys slot/RCBs Orlando Scandrick and Sterling Moore. Matthews turned five targets into 4-51-1 against Dallas on Thanksgiving. He's a strong WR3. ... Cooper's stat lines in Sanchez's five starts are 1-6-0, 4-39-0, 3-49-0, 4-32-0, and 3-13-0. Cooper is safe to ignore in fantasy leagues of all sizes. ... Coming off a Week 14 goose egg, Eagles in-line tight end Celek has cleared 50 yards in 1-of-13 games and remains scoreless on the season. He's a low-end TE2. ... Ertz caught a 35-yard touchdown pass in last week's loss to Seattle, but saw just three targets and played 54% of the snaps. He's a dart-throw TE1 streamer in a plus matchup. The Cowboys allow the second most fantasy points to tight ends.

DeMarco Murray has earned every-week RB1 treatment and then some, but his tough fantasy semifinals matchup is notable from a daily-league and expectations standpoint. Philadelphia's defensive strength is on the ground, where DC Bill Davis' unit permits just 3.66 YPC to running backs and ranks No. 8 in Football Outsiders' run-defense DVOA. The Eagles held Murray to 20-73-1 when these clubs played on Thanksgiving, and Marshawn Lynch to 23-86-0 on the ground last week. Murray is still a good bet to score at the goal line, and his recent uptick in passing-game usage raises both Murray's floor and ceiling. ... Playing through back and rib injuries, the arrow should be pointing up on Tony Romo's health following a long week after Dallas' Week 14 Thursday night win over Chicago. Romo was sharp against the Bears, completing a season-high 80.8% of his 26 throws for 205 yards and a hat trick of touchdowns. The Eagles give up a lot of passing-game production, allowing the fourth most touchdown passes (26) in football and the seventh most passing yards per game (258.1). Romo struggled against this same defense on Thanksgiving, but his poor play appeared injury related. Likely feeling better after an extended rest period, Romo is at very worst a low-end QB1 at Philadelphia.

Romo's target distribution over his last four games: Dez Bryant 32; Murray 26; Jason Witten 18; Cole Beasley 13; Terrance Williams 8; Lance Dunbar and Gavin Escobar 3. ... Dez has 70-plus yards and/or a touchdown in seven straight games. The Eagles -- and a hobbled Romo -- held Bryant in check (4-73-0) on Thanksgiving, but keep in mind Dez went 8-99-1 and 8-110 in these teams' two 2013 meetings, when Philadelphia had the same cornerbacks and same defensive coordinator that it does now. Dez is much likelier than not to rebound in this rubber match. ... Matchups haven't told us much about Witten this season because he's spent so much time blocking in Dallas' run-centric offense. It's still worth noting that Philadelphia allows the seventh fewest fantasy points to tight ends. Witten is working on a four-game streak of being held under 35 receiving yards. A low-end TE1 at best, Witten hasn't been a high-volume passing-game target this year. ... Williams' Week 14 goose egg was his second over the past month. He's cleared 40 yards once in his last seven games and remains scoreless since Week 7. Williams isn't worth a roster spot in the fantasy playoffs. ... Slot man Beasley has three touchdowns over the past three weeks, but has played just 34% of the Cowboys' snaps during that span. He's a role player, not a fantasy option.

Score Prediction: Eagles 30, Cowboys 24

Monday Night Football

New Orleans @ Chicago

With a 54-point over-under and New Orleans favored by three, Monday night's game sets up nicely for a Drew Brees bounce back following last week's unforeseen clunker. The Bears have been shredded by the pass all year, and particularly so over their last two games. Like Brees, Matthew Stafford and Tony Romo both entered their Weeks 13 and 14 dates with Chicago coming off bad games and/or stretches. They emerged combining to complete 55-of-71 throws (77.5%) for 595 yards (8.38 YPA) with five touchdowns and zero picks. On the year, Chicago has allowed a league-high 30 touchdown passes and a passer rating of 103.4, the NFL's third worst clip. Expect a box-score rebound for Brees against Mel Tucker's slump-busting defense. ... Having lost WLB Lance Briggs and MLB D.J. Williams for the season, the Bears have also begun playing sub-par run defense after defending the run relatively well for most of the year. Lions and Cowboys running backs carved up Chicago for 287 yards and four TDs on 56 runs (5.13 YPC) in their last two games. Considering his career-high workload this season, it's within the realm of possibility that Mark Ingram's light Week 14 usage (10 carries) may work in his favor over the final three weeks. Ingram had handled 23-plus rushing attempts in five of his previous six games. Now playing on a long week, Ingram is back in the RB1 discussion at Soldier Field. Breather back Khiry Robinson returned from his forearm injury in last week's loss to Carolina, but didn't play a snap.

Brees' target distribution since Brandin Cooks went on I.R. three games ago: Jimmy Graham 21; Kenny Stills 19; Pierre Thomas 18; Marques Colston 16; Nick Toon 11; Ben Watson 7; Ingram and Joe Morgan 6; Travaris Cadet 4. ... The Bears get torn up by tight ends, allowing the most fantasy points in the league to the position. Like Brees, Graham is an excellent bet to get back on track versus Chicago's league-worst safety-linebacker combination. ... Stills has been the Saints' No. 1 wideout since Cooks was lost for the year, and it hasn't been particularly close. Despite weak stat sheet numbers (3-23-0), Stills' 73% snap rate in last week's loss to the Panthers was his second highest of the season. Stills is probably more of a WR3 than the WR2 he produced like in Weeks 12 and 13, but he's a solid fantasy play against Chicago's sieve-like pass defense. ... On pace for a highly disappointing 57-869-4 receiving line this year, 31-year-old Colston is on the WR3 fringe despite this plus matchup. He's been more productive since the loss of Cooks, but has still cleared 60 receiving yards just twice over his last seven games. ... Seeing light and unpredictable usage since he returned from rib and shoulder injuries three games ago, Pierre Thomas' Weeks 12-14 snap rates were 53%, 25%, and 54% with touch totals of 11, 5, and 9. He's hard to take seriously as a flex play in the fantasy semifinals.

Jay Cutler's on-field performance has frustrated all season, but he still ranks No. 9 in fantasy quarterback scoring and has accounted for 13 touchdowns over his last six games. He's a surefire top-12 quarterback play in a plus matchup and in a game with a lofty over-under. Over the last month, New Orleans' pass defense has been gutted by Andy Dalton, Joe Flacco, Ben Roethlisberger, and Cam Newton for a combined 87-of-137 passing (63.5%), 1,124 yards (8.20 YPA), and a 9:2 TD-to-INT ratio. The Saints were forced to demote 2013 first-round pick SS Kenny Vaccaro this week for poor performance. ... The less-volatile and arguably higher-ceiling Week 15 fantasy play on Chicago's side is Matt Forte, whose matchup is similarly stellar. New Orleans has silver plattered 784 yards and six touchdowns on 136 carries (5.76 YPC) to running backs over the last five weeks, including Jonathan Stewart's 20-155-1 renaissance game last Sunday. Forte should be in the mix to finish as this week's top fantasy running back start.

Alshon Jeffery will almost certainly have to deal with Saints top CB Keenan Lewis' shadow coverage in this game, but that's not necessarily a bad thing. Not the same player since a midseason knee injury, Pro Football Focus has charged Lewis with five touchdowns allowed over his last five games. Among 102 qualifiers, Lewis is PFF's No. 90 cornerback over the last month. Jeffery has 100-plus yards and/or a touchdown in nine of his last 11 games and could be in store for an extreme-volume, Monday night blowup with Brandon Marshall (ribs/lung) out of commission. ... Starting in place of Marshall, second-year Bears WR Marquess Wilson is a Week 15 sleeper and worth a serious daily-league look at his minimum price tag. He should be a safe bet for six-plus targets, and perhaps as many as nine matching up with inconsistent Saints No. 2 corner Patrick Robinson. Wilson is just a boom-or-bust WR3 dart throw in re-draft leagues. ... The Saints have allowed the eighth fewest fantasy points in the league to tight ends, but coughed up a 10-72-1 receiving line to Greg Olsen last week and 8-82-0 to Heath Miller the week before. Martellus Bennett has assumed a huge role whenever Marshall has been hobbled this season and went 12-84-1 in last week's loss to Dallas when Marshall left 18 snaps into the game. Martellus is a top-three tight end play on Monday Night Football.

Score Prediction: Saints 30, Bears 24

on fire and these clubs' Week 12 meeting was no different as Charles went for 122 total yards and a touchdown. Charles has 14 all-purpose TDs over his last ten games. Only Le'Veon Bell and perhaps Arian Foster are superior Week 15 running back plays.

Smith's target distribution over the past two weeks: Travis Kelce 12; Jason Avant 11; Charles 10; Dwayne Bowe and Albert Wilson 8; Knile Davis and De'Anthony Thomas 3; Anthony Sherman and Anthony Fasano 2. ... Coming off season highs in catches (7) and yards (110) in last week's loss to Arizona, Kelce has now led the Chiefs in receiving yards in four straight games. His snap rates are 88%, 94%, 83%, and 82% during that span, while Fasano's playing time has been severely scaled back. The Raiders are 17th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends, but matchups don't matter for Kelce if he's being fed the football. Whether he'll continue to be remains to be seen. He's a low-end TE1 with high-end TE1 upside in this game. ... The Chiefs benched Donnie Avery and started impressive UDFA Wilson over him against the Cardinals. Wilson responded with a 4-53-0 stat line on eight targets. An explosive slot-possession receiver type, 22-year-old Wilson is an intriguing Dynasty prospect in PPR leagues. ... Avant has taken on a surprisingly big role since the Chiefs signed him off the street two weeks ago, while Bowe's usage has dwindled. Both should be avoided in the fantasy football semifinals.

Score Prediction: Chiefs 24, Raiders 16

Houston @ Indianapolis

With Peyton Manning struggling and Aaron Rodgers visiting The Ralph, Andrew Luck is the top quarterback option in fantasy semifinals week. This game has a solid over-under of 49.5 points -- sixth-highest of Week 15's 16-game slate -- and Indianapolis is a 6.5-point favorite, giving the Texans a robust team total of 28. When these clubs squared off in Houston earlier this year, Luck accounted for 388 all-purpose yards and threw three touchdown passes in a 33-28 victory. ... Particularly with Reggie Wayne (triceps) appearing likely to be limited, T.Y. Hilton should be in the top-five wide receiver discussion for Week 15. Historically a monster indoors, Hilton's five career stat lines against the Texans are 9-223-1, 8-78-0, 7-121-3, 4-111-1, and 3-78-1. It's also been shown repeatedly in recent Matchups columns how Houston gets eviscerated by opposing No. 1 wideouts, presumably due to DC Romeo Crennel's archaic back-end scheme. ... Dan Herron has outplayed Trent Richardson by a wide margin since Ahmad Bradshaw went down, but one concern for Herron's going-forward playing time is his pass protection. He coughed up a sack in last week's win over Cleveland, and the Colts will need strong pass pro from their running backs on Sunday because they may have to leave defenders unblocked while doubling J.J. Watt. The good news is T-Rich was poor in pass protection against the Browns, too. Herron (49) out-snapped Richardson (33) and out-touched him 12 to 8. Herron is a passable flex play this week.

Despite the Week 14 return of Dwayne Allen from an ankle injury, impressive rookie Donte Moncrief's playing time kept on climbing in last week's win over the Browns. In order, his snap rates over the past four weeks are 17%, 39%, 53%, and 60%. Unfortunately, Moncrief's target totals during that span are 1, 4, 4, and 4. Moncrief oozes big-play ability and I'd be awfully tempted to twirl him against the Texans, but he's still just a boom-or-bust WR3 if Wayne plays in this game. ... Facing an uncertain role and ineffective to the extent that he's now hurting his own team, Wayne has managed receiving lines of 3-10-0, 4-31-0, and 1-5-0 the past three weeks while seeing a generous 22 targets. He isn't an option in the fantasy playoffs. Dealing with a triceps tear, I do believe there's some chance the Colts play Wayne ceremonially on Sunday so he can break Peyton Manning's franchise record for games played at home. ... In his return from a multi-week ankle injury, Allen logged a 70% snap rate but saw only three targets at Cleveland, catching one for five yards. Allen is a touchdown-dependent TE1, much as he's been all season. The Texans allow the fifth fewest fantasy points to tight ends. Allen went 3-49-0 on a season-high seven targets when these teams met in early October. ... With Allen back, Fleener continued to handle heavy snaps (73%) and saw ten targets, recording a 5-56-0 stat line against the Browns. Fleener caught 2-of-4 targets for 11 yards and a touchdown when these clubs played earlier in the season. Fleener is on the TE1 fringe.

Ryan Fitzpatrick predictably crashed back to Earth following his fluke Week 13 six-touchdown explosion, failing to throw a single scoring pass in last week's win over the Jaguars. He did save his fantasy game somewhat with a rushing TD. The Texans haven't been thrilled with the way Fitzpatrick has run Bill O'Brien's offense in 2014, which led to Fitzpatrick's midseason benching for Ryan Mallett. When Fitzpatrick has started, the Texans have tried to restrict his impact on games as much as possible, utilizing him as a low-volume game manager. Fitzpatrick does offer Week 15 upside based on the theory that this game could easily morph into a pass-happy shootout. He's still a shaky QB1 streamer and preferable two-quarterback-league play. ... Arian Foster has been the centerpiece of Houston's offense whenever healthy this year. He's healthy again and rolling, pasting Jacksonville for 148 total yards and a touchdown on 26 touches in Week 14. Foster dusted this same Colts defense for 141 yards from scrimmage and a pair of scores in October. Ranked 27th in Football Outsiders' run-defense DVOA, the Colts allow the seventh most fantasy points in the league to running backs and a cool 4.31 YPC average. Foster is a top-shelf RB1 whose passing-game involvement could be especially voluminous on Sunday.

Fitzpatrick's target distribution since he resumed starting two games ago: DeAndre Hopkins and Andre Johnson 15; Foster 11; Ryan Griffin and Keshawn Martin 4; Damaris Johnson 2. ... Johnson is questionable for Week 15 after suffering a scary concussion in last week's win over the Jaguars. He'll be a relatively high-floor, limited-ceiling WR3 option if he plays. If he doesn't, Hopkins might have a 12-target floor against the Colts. The Texans' tight ends are essentially nonexistent in the passing game, and they get very little from sub-package receivers Martin, Johnson, and DeVier Posey. I'll be starting Hopkins in daily leagues if it's announced Sunday that Johnson isn't playing. The Colts do not move stationary RCB Vontae Davis, so explosive sophomore Hopkins would get plenty of chances against LCB Greg Toler and slot corner Darius Butler in a potentially high-scoring game indoors.

Score Prediction: Colts 30, Texans 21

Cincinnati @ Cleveland

The Bengals blew a Week 10 home game to these same Browns by abandoning the run in a 24-3 Thursday night drubbing. We're traveling on narrative street here, but it's hard to imagine OC Hue Jackson making the same mistake again. Of particular note for fantasy leaguers, Jackson hinted on Wednesday that he had decided to go to a one-man backfield rather than continue using a two-man RBBC as was the case since Giovani Bernard returned from an early-season hip pointer. On Thursday, Gio revealed Jeremy Hill will start. The main man obviously should be Hill, who's averaged 4.5-plus yards per carry in five of his last six games, while Gio has failed to reach 3.0 YPC in four of his last five. The heavy favorite for red-zone, clock-killing, and now lead-runner work, Hill is a borderline RB1 against a Browns team that ranks 29th in Football Outsiders' run-defense DVOA and submits 4.26 yards per carry to running backs. ... Bernard's touch totals since returning three games ago have dipped steadily by the week (19, 11, 9) and will likely dip even further now. He's a low-floor, low-ceiling, and ultimately undesirable flex at Cleveland.

Andrew Luck rallied back for the win, but Cleveland's defense bullied him for most of last week's game. Luck was picked off twice, sacked for a fumble-six, and averaged 5.5 yards per pass attempt. This is a rough matchup for Andy Dalton, who arguably played the worst game by any quarterback all year when the Bengals hosted the Browns in Week 10. Cleveland ranks No. 2 in Football Outsiders' pass-defense DVOA, leads the NFL in interceptions (19), and has held opposing passers to the lowest combined QB rating (72.6) in the league. I'd avoid Dalton in two-quarterback leagues. ... Dalton's target distribution over his last three games: A.J. Green 39; Jermaine Gresham 15; Mohamed Sanu 13; Hill and Bernard 9; James Wright 7. ... Green is perhaps the hottest wideout in football and would be very tough to bench, but expectations need to be checked for Week 15. In their last three meetings, Joe Haden has held Green to receiving lines of 7-51-0, 2-7-0, and 3-23-0. Hopefully Green is "due" to beat up on Haden. And hopefully "due" is a real thing. ... I'm not sure banking on Haden's potential shutdown of Green as an indicator of a big box score for another Bengal is a good idea in the fantasy playoffs. Dalton will still force feed Green targets. Sanu's target totals the past three weeks are 6, 7, 3, and 3. Sanu didn't capitalize on Green's Week 10 dud, catching two balls for 20 scoreless yards. ... Always a weak streamer, Gresham will take on a Browns defense permitting the 10th fewest fantasy points to tight ends. Gresham has topped 50 receiving yards once through 13 games. Look elsewhere.

Johnny Manziel will make his first NFL start in an offense that will surely look very much like the one OC Kyle Shanahan designed for Robert Griffin III in 2012. You could see it in Manziel's brief Week 13 appearance on frequent bootlegs, a shotgun draw for a rushing score, and offense meant specifically to stretch the defense with its quarterback's legs. I like Manziel as a high-floor QB1 streamer because he will rush for yardage and is an aggressive passer unafraid to give Josh Gordon and Jordan Cameron chances to make plays on the ball. I don't think the fact that Cincinnati has played good pass defense this year matters for a dual-threat signal caller who probably won't throw more than 20-25 times, with 90% of them or more coming off play action with defined high-low reads. The Browns won't ask Manziel to drop back, scan, and work through progressions. ... The impact of Manziel on Gordon and Cameron remains to be seen, and will probably not be fully coherent week to week. With Griffin at quarterback, Shanahan schemed the ball voluminously to his X receivers -- most notably Pierre Garcon -- feeding them targets on high-percentage routes like drags, screens, and shallow crosses. Shanahan did that for Gordon in Weeks 12-13, but not as much in Week 14. I'd want to start Gordon in fantasy this week because his talent is enormous and Manziel showed a willingness to let his big receiver "go get it" at Texas A&M (Mike Evans). I would suspect he treats Gordon similarly.

Cleveland's passing game is a virtual lock to lose volume going from pocket passer Brian Hoyer to runner Manziel. Because slot receiver Andrew Hawkins doesn't dominate with size or win in the red zone, he requires heavy volume to pay fantasy dividends. Hawkins' target totals since Gordon returned from suspension are 5, 3, and 7 after he saw eight-plus targets in all but one of Cleveland's initial nine games. Hawkins is still useful to the Browns. He just isn't a good fantasy bet any longer. ... Cameron's volume is similarly a question mark, though he figures to see more than Hawkins. Back healthy in Week 14, Cameron played 79% of Cleveland's offensive snaps and led the Browns in receiving yards (41). We do know this is a good matchup for Cameron against a Bengals defense that's allowed the 10th most receptions (63) and seventh most yards (779) to tight ends. ... I think the most immediate beneficiaries of Manziel's installation will be Isaiah Crowell and Terrance West. Manziel's running threat creates an added stress on opposing defenses that is borne out in their spiked rushing efficiency. We've seen the impact of RG3 on Alfred Morris in Washington, and Chris Johnson rushing for 2,000 yards with Vince Young at quarterback in Tennessee. West (15 touches) and Crowell (14) were utilized in a near-even timeshare during last week's loss to Indianapolis. Because of his superior talent, Crowell is the superior fantasy option and an RB2 against Cincinnati, which ranks 30th in Football Outsiders' run-defense DVOA and got torn to smithereens by Le'Veon Bell (26-185-2) last week. West is a lower-ceiling flex option.

Score Prediction: Browns 24, Bengals 21

Jacksonville @ Baltimore

The over-under on Jags-Ravens is 45.5 points with Baltimore installed as a whopping 13.5-point favorite. The Vegas sharps are forecasting a blowout with Jacksonville carrying a putrid team total of 16 points. Fire up the Ravens' fantasy defense and avoid Jaguars wherever possible. ... Hitting a wall late in his first-ever season as a full-time featured running back, Denard Robinson finally capitulated this week, being diagnosed with a mid-foot sprain that sent him to I.R. He had managed 99 scoreless yards on 35 carries (2.83 YPC) over the past three weeks. The Jags will presumably turn to a three-back timeshare of Toby Gerhart, Storm Johnson, and Jordan Todman against Baltimore's top-four run defense. Avoid. ... Blake Bortles has accounted for 17 turnovers compared to 10 touchdowns on the season, absorbing four or more sacks in six of his last eight games. He's shown no ability to threaten defenses outside the numbers, which is where the Ravens' defensive vulnerability is due to their poor cornerback situation. This is a major mismatch in favor of Baltimore, which ranks sixth in the NFL in sacks (37) and will likely eliminate Jacksonville's run game, rendering Jacksonville's offense one dimensional. ... I can't imagine starting any Jaguars wide receiver in any format this week, but here is Bortles' target distribution since Jacksonville's Week 11 bye, in case you were curious: Allen Hurns 22; Marqise Lee 21; Cecil Shorts 20; Shoelace 12; Marcedes Lewis 10; Gerhart 7; Todman 6.

Committed to a run-first attack, Baltimore ranks fifth in the NFL in rushing offense and eighth in rushing attempts. At home in a game they should control from start to finish, the Ravens figure to saddle up Justin Forsett and ride him against a Jaguars team that ranks No. 20 in Football Outsiders' run-defense DVOA and allows the sixth most fantasy points to running backs, including an AFC-high 80 receptions. OC Gary Kubiak scaled back Forsett's workload in last week's win over Miami after he was listed as questionable with a knee injury, but Forsett still emerged with 78 total yards and a touchdown. With Lorenzo Taliaferro (knee/ankle) out this week, look for Forsett's usage to go back to normal. ... Joe Flacco gets a tougher draw against an upstart Jaguars pass defense that's allowed just one passing TD over its last two games and ranks third in the NFL in sacks (39). Flacco will be without top pass-game playmaker Torrey Smith (knee), whom Baltimore will replace with career special teamer Kamar Aiken. Flacco has arguably had his best NFL season, but it's come in more of a low-volume passing role in a shot-play designed offense with the ground game as its foundation. The Ravens are 20th in the league in pass attempts. Flacco is a fine starter in two-quarterback leagues, but this is a tricky week to stream him.

Flacco's target distribution since the Ravens' Week 11 bye: Steve Smith Sr. 21; Torrey 14; Aiken 11; Owen Daniels 10; Marlon Brown, Kyle Juszcyzyk, and Forsett 7; Jacoby Jones 3. ... Smith Sr. saw 11 targets with Torrey in and out of last week's lineup, his highest total since Week 1. He's a sensible WR3 option with opportunity-based upside this week. ... Daniels' role appears to have been downsized since his midseason knee scope. His target totals over Baltimore's last four games are 4, 5, 3, and 2. Scoreless in nine of his last ten games and held to 30 yards or fewer in four straight, Daniels is a mid-range TE2 against a Jaguars defense that ranks 16th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends. ... As Torrey played only 15 snaps in last Sunday's win over the Dolphins, Aiken logged a 73% snap rate and parlayed seven targets into a 6-65-1 receiving line. Aiken does have impressive measurables, running a 4.45 forty at the 2011 Central Florida Pro Day with a 10-foot-8 broad jump at 6-foot-1, 213. The 25-year-old might be a better wide receiver prospect than given credit for, but he'd be very hard to trust in the fantasy semifinals. More-physically imposing slot receiver Marlon Brown (6'4/213) could just as easily out-target Aiken against the Jags.

Score Prediction: Ravens 24, Jaguars 14

Green Bay @ Buffalo

On a roll like he probably devours them at the dinner table, Eddie Lacy has 11 touchdowns over his last 10 games and 100-plus total yards in six consecutive weeks. He's averaging 5.05 yards per carry since September. As the Broncos showed in Week 14, the best way to attack Buffalo's defense at this stage of the season is on the ground. C.J. Anderson and Juwan Thompson combined for a 25-121-3 rushing line against the Bills last Sunday, and over the past seven games Buffalo has permitted a total of 667 yards and seven TDs on 147 carries (4.54 YPC) to running backs. Expect Fat Eddie to keep eating. ... The Packers mixed in James Starks a bit more than usual in last Monday night's win over Atlanta, giving Starks ten carries in their 43-37 win. He hadn't seen more than eight runs in any game since October 2. Starks got 41 of his 75 yards on a clock-killing run with 1:51 left and was in the game only because Lacy was nursing a hip bruise. Starks' involvement has been too light and unreliable for flex usage in the fantasy playoffs. ... Nothing about Aaron Rodgers' matchup suggests he'll have a big Week 15 game, beyond the fact that he's the best quarterback in football. The Bills shut down Peyton Manning last week, rank No. 5 versus the pass, are really tough to play against at Ralph Wilson Stadium, and lead the league in sacks (48). With a 35:3 TD-to-INT ratio on the season and a weekly average of 280.9 yards, I'd probably view Rodgers as a high-floor, somewhat limited-ceiling top-five QB1 this week.

Thursday Update: Keep a close eye on Lacy, whose comments following a "limited" practice on Thursday didn't exactly sound like they were coming from a player who's confident in his own health. As noted above, Buffalo poses an easier matchup for running backs than popular perception might lead you to believe. If Lacy starts, he's an RB1 against the Bills. If Lacy is out, Starks becomes an excellent flex play in semifinals week.

Rodgers' target distribution since Green Bay's Week 9 bye: Jordy Nelson 44; Randall Cobb 40; Lacy 24; Davante Adams 23; Andrew Quarless 16; Richard Rodgers 9; Starks 8. ... In RCB Stephon Gilmore (6'1/190) and LCB Corey Graham (6'0/195), the Bills have size-gifted corners who've both earned plus grades from Pro Football Focus on the season. Graham has been especially good, grading out No. 7 among 113 qualifying cornerbacks in coverage. You're not betting on Jordy because he's a lock to go wild against Buffalo's secondary. You're starting him because he's the No. 2 overall fantasy wideout and is heavily targeted by the best quarterback in the game. ... Running roughly 70% of his routes between the numbers, Cobb gets the best Week 15 matchup in Green Bay's pass-catcher corps. Although slot corner Nickell Robey has played better lately, he's been the weakest link in Buffalo's cornerback corps and had trouble with both Emmanuel Sanders and Wes Welker last week. On pace for a career-best 85-1,206-12 receiving line this season, Cobb is a borderline WR1. ... Adams' snap rates over the past three weeks are 71%, 80%, and 72%. Unfortunately, his target totals have been less reliable at 4, 10, and 4. Having topped 50 yards in 4-of-13 games this year, Adams is a WR4 in this tough matchup for wideouts. ... The Bills are 17th in receptions (58), 28th in yards (528), and 31st in touchdowns (2) allowed to tight ends. Quarless and rookie TE Rodgers are safe to ignore in the fantasy semifinals.

Bills-Packers has a lofty 50.5-point over-under with Green Bay as a five-point favorite. The Bills' team total is just under 23 points, not terrible but not quite exciting. I think the most stable fantasy option on Buffalo's side is Fred Jackson, whom the Bills have now used as a true feature back in two straight games. F-Jax piled up a team-high 42 touches and played 75% of Buffalo's offensive snaps in Weeks 13-14. Beyond change-of-pace and breather-back work, Anthony Dixon and Bryce Brown have hardly seen the field. This is a solid matchup for Jackson against a Green Bay team that ranks 23rd in Football Outsiders' run-defense DVOA and permits 4.23 yards per carry to running backs. I like Jackson as a flex play in non-PPR leagues and as a legitimate RB2 in PPR. Jackson is a high-floor option on FanDuel, where his price is a cost-friendly $6,600. ... Kyle Orton has managed a 4:4 TD-to-INT ratio and 242-yard average over the past month. It's conceivable he'll rack up yardage if this game turns pass heavy, sort of like last week in Denver. The Packers' pass defense did get its clock cleaned by Matt Ryan last Monday night, but Orton is an inferior player with inferior weapons, and for the most part Green Bay's defensive strength has been versus the pass.

Orton's target distribution since the Bills' Week 9 bye: Sammy Watkins 43; Robert Woods 35; Chris Hogan 32; Jackson 27; Scott Chandler 26; Bryce Brown 20. ... Some order was restored in Buffalo's pass-catcher corps against the Broncos. Watkins rebounded from a month-long slump to post a 7-127 number, though he got almost all of his production against rookie RCB Bradley Roby as the Broncos never adjusted to take away the Bills' top weapon. In Week 15, Watkins projects to run most of his routes against Packers RCB Sam Shields, whom Green Bay benched in favor of Davon House during last week's 11-259-1 demolition by Julio Jones. With Orton always more likely to check to high-percentage routes rather than test outside the numbers, I'm still viewing Watkins as a boom-or-bust WR3. ... Woods has been consistent this season but also pretty consistently underwhelming. He showed his floor in Denver, managing 34 scoreless yards on four targets. Woods has gone over 80 yards once this year and twice through two NFL seasons. Fantasy owners with designs on a championship-game berth should probably aim higher. ... The Packers are 18th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends. Just barely a top-20 fantasy tight end on the year, Chandler is a low-end streamer option for Week 15. Along with slot man Hogan's, Chandler's Week 14 stats were puffed up by Orton's season-high 57 pass attempts. Role players all season, Chandler and Hogan haven't suddenly become featured players in Buffalo's passing game.

Score Prediction: Packers 24, Bills 20

Tampa Bay @ Carolina

Finally relatively healthy in the front seven and finding a consistent cornerback duo in LCB Josh Norman and RCB Bene Benwikere, Carolina has begun playing competitive pass defense. The Panthers held Drew Brees to disappointing fantasy numbers twice over their last five games and haven't allowed more than two touchdown passes in a game since Aaron Rodgers threw three against them in Week 7. Carolina obviously isn't the shutdown defense it was throughout 2013, but it's an above-average group with talented enough personnel to cause problems for Tampa's dysfunctional offense, where porous line play has led to frequent sacks and turnovers. It's fair to wonder if Josh McCown will make it through this game without getting benched. McCown is 60-of-116 passing (51.7%) for 781 yards (6.73 YPA) with three TDs and five INTs over his last three games. Although McCown has done well to deliver the football to Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson since returning to the starting lineup five games ago, he's committed nine turnovers during that stretch while absorbing 18 sacks. Consider Carolina's defense as a Week 15 streamer.

The Bucs' backfield should continue to be avoided in the fantasy postseason. OC Marcus Arroyo has shown a willingness to abandon his run game at the drop of a hat, while Doug Martin and rookie Charles Sims have formed an unproductive RBBC. Sims (62.5%) out-snapped Martin (37.5%) in last week's loss to Detroit, but both finished with just six touches. Bobby Rainey may also return from his ankle injury this week, further muddling the rotation. ... McCown's target distribution over his last five starts: Evans 49; V-Jax 47; Louis Murphy 22; Sims 16; Austin Seferian-Jenkins and Rainey 14; Martin 2. ... Jackson's wild week-to-week inconsistency and two touchdowns on the season have rendered him a boom-or-bust WR3. His 17 targets in last week's loss to Detroit were a function of Tampa Bay giving up on the run and force feeding footballs to their big receivers. ... Whereas Jackson's target totals have been all over the map on a game-to-game basis, Evans' are more steady. He has at least nine in six consecutive weeks and has ten touchdowns over his last nine games. Evans is a high-floor WR2 with WR1 upside every week. ... Seferian-Jenkins is tentatively due to return from his back injury this week. Like most rookie tight ends, ASJ was struggling on the field pre-injury and the Panthers are 20th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends. I'm high on Seferian-Jenkins' long-term prospects. I wouldn't touch him as a Week 15 streamer.

Following Cam Newton's Tuesday car accident, the Panthers will start Derek Anderson versus Tampa Bay in a game with a 41.5-point over-under, tied with Oakland-Kansas City for third lowest of Week 15. Anderson is worth a look in daily leagues at his minimum or near-minimum cost -- perhaps in a stack with Kelvin Benjamin or Greg Olsen -- but I wouldn't get cute trying to stream Carolina's backup quarterback in the fantasy playoffs. Anderson is a relatively undesirable two-QB-league start. ... Where Anderson's insertion may hurt Carolina's offense is in the run game. Cam's dual-threat presence will be missed as an added stress on the defense. Jonathan Stewart managed 20 yards on nine carries when Anderson started Week 1, although he was playing behind DeAngelo Williams at the time, and Williams racked up 72 yards on 14 runs (5.14 YPC) against the Bucs. Stewart's matchup isn't nearly as good as last week's in New Orleans -- Tampa Bay is quietly 12th in Football Outsiders' run-defense DVOA, whereas the Saints are dead last -- but Stewart's anticipated workload with Williams (hand) expected to miss another game locks him in as a passable RB2. Volume is on J-Stew's side in a game where Carolina should be able to feed its rushing attack. I'd expect him to see 18-plus touches versus Tampa Bay. He'll be a solid bet for a goal-line plunge.

Anderson's target distribution in his Week 1 start against these same Buccaneers: Greg Olsen 11; Kelvin Benjamin 8; Jerricho Cotchery and Mike Tolbert 4; Stewart 3; Williams 1. ... Olsen went 8-83-1 against Tampa Bay on Opening Day and probably has the best Week 15 matchup in Carolina's pass-catcher corps. Schematically, Lovie Smith's Tampa-2 defense willingly concedes possession-route receptions to tight ends. On the season, the Bucs have permitted the fourth most catches (70) and 10th most yards (709) in the league to the position. Olsen is a top-five TE1 in the fantasy semifinals. ... Benjamin's Week 1 stat line against the Bucs was 6-92-1. Anderson has thrown four touchdown passes this year and three of them have gone to Carolina's imposing first-round rookie. Newton's loss removes all-purpose playmaking ability from the Panthers' offense, but I'm not convinced Anderson is a huge downgrade purely as a passer. Benjamin is an upside WR2 versus Tampa.

Score Prediction: Panthers 23, Buccaneers 17

4:05PM ET Games

NY Jets @ Tennessee

Pitting previously-benched quarterbacks against each other, Sunday's Jets-Titans game has a 42-point over-under, third lowest among Sunday and Monday's games. Fantasy owners should look elsewhere for upside. ... The way to attack Tennessee is on the ground, where DC Ray Horton's defense has hemorrhaged 951 yards and eight TDs on 192 carries (4.95 YPC) to running backs across its last six games. This plays into the hands of the Jets, who've piled up a whopping 91 runs compared to 42 passes since reinstalling Geno Smith at quarterback on a front office mandate two games ago. New York is a lock to stay committed to its rushing attack without Percy Harvin (ankle). The trick is forecasting which Jets back will have a big day against the Titans, or whether they'll essentially cancel each other out. Chris Ivory turned 17 touches into 77 yards in last week's loss to the Vikings, playing 35% of New York's offensive snaps. Chris Johnson totaled 66 yards on 18 touches, logging 42% of the downs. Pass-pro specialist Bilal Powell stayed involved with a 25% snap rate and two carries. Johnson is your man if you're willing to hang your hat on the "revenge narrative" against his former team. Ivory is the better back. ... New York's passing offense is otherwise hands off with its volume in the gutter, but I don't think it would be crazy to twirl Eric Decker on FanDuel this week at his $6,000 cost. He's worth a look in deeper leagues as a WR4/flex. With Harvin out of the picture, Decker should see a generous target percentage versus struggling Titans LCB Jason McCourty, who's been dusted for stat lines of 11-130-1 (Odell Beckham) and 7-53-1 (Andre Johnson) the past two weeks.

Friday Update: Harvin practiced on a limited basis Friday and declared himself ready to roll against the Titans, after Rex Ryan indicated early in the week that Harvin would not play. I think the Jets' passing game should be avoided in Week 15 fantasy lineup decisions. I still expect New York to attempt to gash Tennessee with a high-volume rushing attack.

Back in the lineup following Zach Mettenberger's shoulder separation, Jake Locker enters Week 15 with four touchdowns and eight turnovers across his last five games. Wildly injury prone and ineffective, Locker has fallen flat in previous favorable matchups with the Cowboys and Texans. He definitely won't have Justin Hunter (I.R.) on Sunday and may not have Kendall Wright (wrist) either. Even in a plus matchup with the Jets' tissue-soft pass defense, Locker is difficult to get behind as a two-quarterback-league play. ... The "only-guy-to-throw-to" logic didn't work out last week, as Delanie Walker went 4-27-0 against the Giants. He did see a team-high 10 targets, however, and is in the same situation this week against a Jets defense that permits the fifth most fantasy points to tight ends, including a league-high 12 touchdowns. Walker's stat lines in Locker's four early-season starts were 3-37-1, 10-142-1, 4-54-0, and 4-47-0. At the weakest position in fantasy football, Walker remains squarely in play as an attractive TE1. ... With Wright out of the lineup last week, Nate Washington was targeted only three times, securing all three for 56 scoreless yards. Derek Hagan went 6-62 on seven targets. Washington, 31, and Hagan, 30, are both late-career possession receivers. Best of luck if you need to use either one of them. ... Fantasy football's most disappointing rookie, Bishop Sankey has now been held to 12 touches or fewer in four straight games. Locker came off the bench in Week 14 to lead the Titans in rushing. Avoid Tennessee's black-hole backfield against the Jets' top-five run defense.

Score Prediction: Jets 20, Titans 17

Denver @ San Diego

It's become awfully difficult to know what to expect from the Chargers' offense. Philip Rivers has been held to one or fewer touchdown passes in four of his last five games, and San Diego's injury-ravaged offensive line has become a liability to the extent that it's affecting both the run and pass games. Chargers coach Mike McCoy's usual plan of attack against Denver is to play ball-control offense, slow down the game, and keep Peyton Manning off the field as much as possible. McCoy is now dealing with a nicked-up Ryan Mathews (leg) and a pair of role-player backs in Donald Brown and Branden Oliver in reserve. My guess is McCoy will resort to attacking the Broncos with the pass, although that may not end well versus Von Miller, DeMarcus Ware, and one of the league's top secondaries. Rivers is a low-end QB1, but with plenty of upside if this game evolves into a shootout. The over-under is a robust 51 points. ... Even if Mathews plays, I'd find it hard to trust any Chargers back in the fantasy semifinals. Mathews doesn't play well when he's beat up, and the Broncos rank No. 2 in Football Outsiders' run-defense DVOA while limiting running backs to a 3.25 YPC average. If Mathews does not play, I'd expect Brown and Oliver to form a committee. Brown recently passed Oliver on the depth chart and would presumably be first in line for backfield work.

Rivers' target distribution since San Diego's Week 10 bye: Keenan Allen 40; Eddie Royal 24; Malcom Floyd 23; Antonio Gates 21; Brown 11; Oliver and Ladarius Green 9; Mathews 6. ... Allen got erased by Darrelle Revis in Week 14, managing three receiving yards on three targets. I'm skeptical of how predictive stats like this are, but Allen has a productive history against Denver, recording stat lines of 9-73-1, 6-142-2, and 2-29-2 in his last three Broncos games. Allen is an upside WR3 in Week 15. ... The Broncos permit the eighth most fantasy points to tight ends and allowed a pair of TDs to Gates in Week 8. Gates' touchdown dependency renders him a boom-or-bust TE1, but he's pretty much always a quality fantasy option for non-Gronk and non-Jimmy Graham owners. ... Despite a recent uptick in targets, Royal has topped 50 receiving yards once since September. He's not easy to support as more than a fantasy WR5. ... Floyd has the toughest matchup in San Diego's pass-catcher corps. He'll primarily run routes against Broncos LCB Aqib Talib, a plus-sized (6'1/202) and physical press corner capable of neutralizing bigger receivers. Just as he's been all year, Floyd is a fringe WR3 in non-PPR leagues and a WR4 in PPR.

This is an obvious bounce-back spot for Peyton Manning coming off his scoreless Week 14. Pass-rush deficient and leaky in the back half, San Diego has just seven sacks over its last eight games while permitting a 16:4 TD-to-INT ratio to quarterbacks. The Broncos do seem genuinely committed to a more-balanced offense during the winter months, but Peyton should have a floor of 250 passing yards and a pair of touchdowns in this cupcake matchup. The Chargers have one of the QB-friendliest defenses in the league. Peyton lit them up for 286 yards and three TDs in these clubs' October date. ... After resting on Wednesday, C.J. Anderson (ankle) returned to practice Thursday and is on track to start in San Diego. The Chargers have played top-14 run defense per Football Outsiders' metrics, but matchups don't matter for high-volume workhorses in Peyton Manning offenses. Anderson is a mid-range RB1. Expect Juwan Thompson to continue handling breather-back work.

Chargers LCB Brandon Flowers was out when San Diego visited Denver in Week 8. Peyton went after fill-in LCB Richard Marshall with so much success that Marshall was benched and ultimately released, never playing for the Chargers again after that game. Emmanuel Sanders (9-120-3) was the box-score beneficiary. In this game, I think Manning will attack burnable Chargers RCB Shareece Wright, SS Marcus Gilchrist, and third safety Jahleel Addae. The Broncos' pass catchers move around enough that Peyton could do that with any of Sanders, Demaryius Thomas, and Julius Thomas. They're all top-notch options in the fantasy football playoffs. ... Orange Julius is indeed expected to play without limitations on Sunday after missing the past three weeks with a recurring ankle injury. It's worth noting that San Diego allows the ninth fewest fantasy points tight ends, although Rob Gronkowski did go 8-87-1 against them last week. Either way, I think Julius is a top-five fantasy tight end play any time he suits up. I'd probably have Rob Gronkowski, Jimmy Graham, Martellus Bennett, and perhaps Greg Olsen over Julius this week. ... Wes Welker woke up for six catches and 82 yards in last week's win over Buffalo, although it came with Julius on the sideline and Demaryius nursing an apparent foot injury. It was also Welker's first game over 60 yards all season. With two touchdowns through 11 appearances, Welker was safe to drop across the board long ago.

Score Prediction: Broncos 30, Chargers 23

4::25PM ET Games

Minnesota @ Detroit

Increasingly composed and gaining confidence, Teddy Bridgewater has made enough strides over the course of his rookie year that Dynasty owners should have going-forward optimism. I wonder if it's any coincidence Bridgewater's improved play has coincided with the Vikings' demotion of Cordarrelle Patterson. Much of Bridgewater's success has come against lesser defenses, however, and his hot stretch will be put to the test Sunday in Detroit. The Lions rank No. 1 in points allowed and No. 2 in total defense, are tied for second in the league in interceptions (17), and rank seventh in sacks (35). Bridgewater was picked off three times and absorbed an unholy eight sacks when these clubs met in Week 6. Bridgewater is a dicey two-quarterback-league play at Ford Field. As usual, the Lions' fantasy defense is a recommended play. ... The Vikings continued to use Matt Asiata as their feature back in Week 14 against the Jets, and Asiata continued to plod. Afterwards, coach Mike Zimmer expressed that he wants Asiata's role reduced. Expect to see more of Ben Tate and Joe Banyard sprinkled in against Detroit. Minnesota seems poised to employ a three-back timeshare and the Lions have the best run defense in football. Vikings running backs should be avoided in semifinals week.

Bridgewater's target distribution since the Vikings' Week 10 bye: Charles Johnson 30; Greg Jennings 21; Asiata 13; Kyle Rudolph 10; Jarius Wright 9; Patterson 6; Rhett Ellison 5; Banyard 4. ... Earning every-week WR3 treatment in fantasy leagues, Johnson's stat lines since Minnesota's open date are 6-87, 3-52-1, 2-41-0, and 4-103-1. Despite their stout pass defense overall, the Lions have permitted wide receiver lines of 10-159-0 (Vincent Jackson), 4-45-2 (Mike Evans), 9-71-2 (Alshon Jeffery), 9-98 (Brandon LaFell), and 2-54-2 (Michael Floyd) over the last month. ... Jennings went 3-33-0 against Detroit in Week 6, and that was before Johnson came on the scene to dominate targets as a legitimate No. 1 wide receiver. Jennings is a WR4/5 for the fantasy playoffs. ... Rudolph has been a frustratingly small part of Minnesota's offense since returning from sports hernia surgery four games ago. His target totals during that span are 0, 6, 3, and 2. The Lions are 15th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends, giving Rudolph a middling matchup. He's a low-ceiling, touchdown-dependent TE1 streamer.

Matthew Stafford's fantasy season will ultimately be chalked up as a disappointment, but he's played far better of late. In Weeks 13-14, Stafford lit up the Bears and Bucs defenses for 60-of-79 passing (75.6%), 701 yards (8.88 YPA), and a 5:0 TD-to-INT ratio. The Lions are healthy on the offensive line and in their pass-catcher corps, and volume has been there for Stafford all year. He has 30-plus pass attempts in every 2014 game. The Vikings have played up-and-down pass defense, where they rank 16th in Football Outsiders' DVOA metric. Stafford also benefits from this game being played indoors. I think Stafford has earned mid-range QB1 treatment for the final two weeks of the fantasy season. The Lions play the Bears in fantasy title week. ... This game sets up particularly well for Joique Bell, who despite Reggie Bush's Week 14 return continued to handle the heavy majority of Lions backfield work. Bell played 62% of Detroit's offensive snaps, parlaying 23 touches into 133 yards and two touchdowns. Bush logged a 34% snap rate and managed 34 yards on 12 touches against Tampa Bay. The Vikings permit 4.55 yards per carry and the ninth most fantasy points in the league to running backs. I like Bell as an RB2 and would lean away from Bush in flex decisions.

Stafford's target distribution since the Lions' Week 9 bye: Calvin Johnson 62; Golden Tate 41; Theo Riddick 22; Eric Ebron 19; Joique 17; Jeremy Ross 10. ... Since returning from his early-season ankle injury five weeks ago, Megatron has seen between 9 and 16 targets in every game. He's the No. 4 fantasy wideout during that span, behind only Jordy Nelson, Julio Jones, and Mike Evans. Vikings RCB Xavier Rhodes poses a significant obstacle, but Minnesota uses Rhodes similarly to how the Colts employ Vontae Davis, always keeping Rhodes at right cornerback. Johnson runs routes on both sides of the formation and projects to get more chances against burnable LCB Josh Robinson based on where he usually lines up. It's worth noting that Vikings coach Mike Zimmer never used cornerbacks to "shadow" top receivers during his six-year run as Bengals defensive coordinator. Megatron is comfortably a top-five wideout play in Week 15. ... The road has been rockier for Tate since Megatron got healthy. He has five or fewer targets in two of his last four games and hasn't scored a touchdown since October. Ideally, owners with fantasy championship plans would be considering Tate as a WR3 as opposed to locking him in as a WR2. Tate has a mediocre Week 15 matchup against Vikings slot corner Captain Munnerlyn, who has played better recently after a slow start to the season. Normally, Munnerlyn is one of the NFL's tougher inside cover men. ... Ebron and Brandon Pettigrew should be easy to avoid this week against a Vikings defense permitting the sixth fewest fantasy points to tight ends.

Score Prediction: Lions 24, Vikings 17

San Francisco @ Seattle

The 49ers-Seahawks over-under is an anemic 38 points with Seattle as a 10-point favorite. The Niners' team total is 14 points, the lowest for any team all year. You'll want to avoid 49ers skill-position players in this one. Since RCB Byron Maxwell returned from a calf injury in Week 10, the Seahawks have held enemy quarterbacks to a combined 80-of-135 passing (59.2%) for 757 yards (5.61 YPA) and a 3:5 TD-to-INT ratio. Seattle also has ten sacks over its last three games. Just as concerning for Colin Kaepernick's outlook are his historical struggles against Pete Carroll's defenses. Across five career starts versus Seattle, Kaepernick is 77-of-146 passing (52.7%) for 820 yards (5.62 YPA) with a 3:9 TD-to-INT ratio. Kaepernick is just a low-end two-quarterback-league play in this matchup. ... The prospects are similarly bleak for San Francisco's run game. Since getting back MLB Bobby Wagner from a toe injury three games ago, Seattle has limited 49ers, Cardinals, and Eagles running backs to 138 scoreless yards on 52 carries (2.65 YPC). The Niners have never used Frank Gore much as a receiver under Jim Harbaugh, and he's had little success running on the Seahawks recently. Gore's last four rushing lines against Seattle are 9-16-0, 17-110-0, 11-14-0, and 10-28-0. Aim higher with your flex play.

Carlos Hyde's touch totals the past four weeks are 4, 10, 7, 8, and 3. He probably won't be a fantasy option before 2015, when Gore seems certain to leave in free agency. ... Kaepernick's target distribution since the 49ers' Week 8 bye: Anquan Boldin 54; Michael Crabtree 49; Vernon Davis 24; Stevie Johnson 18; Brandon Lloyd 10; Gore and Bruce Miller 9; Hyde 7. ... Facing the Seahawks four times the past two seasons, including playoffs, Boldin has managed stat lines of 3-18-0, 5-53-1, 6-93-0, and 1-7-0. As the Seahawks have begun using Byron Maxwell at slot corner with Tharold Simon locking down RCB, Boldin gets a very difficult Week 15 matchup. Maxwell held previously red-hot Jordan Matthews to a 2-23-0 number on five targets last week. ... Perimeter receiver Crabtree will primarily run his pass patterns at Simon and LCB Richard Sherman. Among fantasy's biggest disappointments this year, Crabtree is on pace for just 779 receiving yards and five touchdowns. He's a WR4. ... Davis hasn't been targeted in the red zone since Week 1. The Seahawks allow the 10th fewest receptions (53) and third fewest yards (478) in the league to tight ends. Davis caught two passes for 13 yards when these teams played on Thanksgiving.

The last four scores of 49ers-Seahawks games are 23-17, 19-17, 29-3, and 19-3. There is little history here of big-time fantasy production. Expectations should generally be checked for Seattle and San Francisco players across the board. Marshawn Lynch did do some damage when these clubs played on Thanksgiving night, rushing 20 times for 104 yards (5.20 YPC) with a seven-yard reception. Lynch has handled at least 18 touches in six straight games and is a high-floor RB1 play against the Niners. Additionally, Lynch is always a good bet to hit pay dirt at CenturyLink Field. Across 30 home games since the Seahawks traded for him in 2011, Lynch has scored 35 touchdowns. He's managed 17 TDs across 29 away games during that same span. ... Wilson has made six career starts versus 49ers DC Vic Fangio's defense since entering the league. In them, he's gone 78-of-135 passing (57.8%) for 1,084 yards (8.03 YPA) and an 8:4 TD-to-INT ratio, with 32 scrambles for 109 scoreless yards. They're fine real-life numbers, but not entirely inspiring for Wilson's Week 15 fantasy outlook. He's on the QB1 borderline against a 49ers defense that ranks No. 4 against the pass, No. 5 in interceptions (16), No. 6 in completion rate allowed (59.1), and No. 4 in passer rating against (80.7).

Wilson's target distribution since the Percy Harvin trade: Doug Baldwin 53; Jermaine Kearse 42; Lynch 25; Paul Richardson 24; Luke Willson 21; Cooper Helfet 17; Robert Turbin 16; Tony Moeaki 10; Kevin Norwood 8. ... Baldwin's targets and production have been inconsistent since the Harvin deal. He's seen as few as two in a game during that span, and as many as ten. Baldwin went 2-28 on four targets when these clubs squared off on Thanksgiving. He's the best fantasy bet among Seahawks pass catchers in this game, but that's not saying much. ... Kearse has underwhelmed despite a big bump in usage. After scoring six touchdowns as a part-time player last year, including regular season and playoffs, Kearse has one TD through 13 games in 2014. He's a limited talent with a tough Week 15 matchup against stingy 49ers LCB Perrish Cox. ... With Helfet (ankle) still on the shelf last week, Willson handled 62% of Seattle's offensive snaps, and Moeaki 50.5%. Moeaki saw three targets, and Willson two. Seahawks tight ends should be avoided in fantasy football.

Score Prediction: Seahawks 24, 49ers 13

Sunday Night Football

Dallas @ Philadelphia

In a battle of teams that just played on Thanksgiving, Sunday night's Cowboys-Eagles game has a 55-point over-under, second highest of Week 15 behind only Steelers-Falcons. Because the Eagles play fast and generally force their opponents to play fast, too, this is a game to consider stacking in daily leagues. ... Dallas has been particularly vulnerable to the pass of late, allowing enemy quarterbacks to go 171-of-249 passing (68.7%) for 1,982 yards (7.96 YPA) and a 12:5 TD-to-INT ratio over its last seven games. This is a good week to start Mark Sanchez, who accounted for two touchdowns and 245 all-purpose yards against the Cowboys at their place two weeks ago. Now back home in a projected high-scoring affair, Sanchez is an easy top-dozen quarterback play in Week 15. ... LeSean McCoy was the more dominant Eagles skill-position player when these clubs met two Thursdays ago, pasting Dallas for a 25-159-1 rushing number. Despite last week's clunker versus the Seahawks, McCoy carries a robust 4.82 YPC average across his last eight games. On the season, Dallas ranks 25th in Football Outsiders' run-defense DVOA while permitting 4.69 yards per carry to running backs. Expect a bounce-back game for Shady on Sunday Night Football. ... Darren Sproles' touch totals are 7, 2, 4, 9, 4, and 4 on offense over the Eagles' last six games. Primarily a special teamer, Sproles has played just 25% of the Eagles' offensive snaps the past two games. He isn't a flex option in the fantasy postseason.

Sanchez's target distribution since Nick Foles broke his collarbone: Jeremy Maclin 46; Jordan Matthews 38; Riley Cooper 31; Brent Celek 21; Zach Ertz 20; Sproles 18; Josh Huff 7; McCoy 5. ... Maclin gets the best Week 15 matchup in Philly's wideout corps. He will run most of his routes at Cowboys LCB Brandon Carr, who's played a leading role in surrendering stat lines of 5-119 (Cecil Shorts), 10-146-2 (Odell Beckham), 8-108 (Maclin), and 6-95-1 (Alshon Jeffery) over his last four games. Carr is PFF's No. 107 coverage cornerback among 113 qualifiers. ... Seahawks slot corner Byron Maxwell got the best of Matthews in Week 14, holding the impressive rookie to a 2-23-0 number on five targets. Matthews' matchup is slightly better this week, taking on Cowboys slot/RCBs Orlando Scandrick and Sterling Moore. Matthews turned five targets into 4-51-1 against Dallas on Thanksgiving. He's a strong WR3. ... Cooper's stat lines in Sanchez's five starts are 1-6-0, 4-39-0, 3-49-0, 4-32-0, and 3-13-0. Cooper is safe to ignore in fantasy leagues of all sizes. ... Coming off a Week 14 goose egg, Eagles in-line tight end Celek has cleared 50 yards in 1-of-13 games and remains scoreless on the season. He's a low-end TE2. ... Ertz caught a 35-yard touchdown pass in last week's loss to Seattle, but saw just three targets and played 54% of the snaps. He's a dart-throw TE1 streamer in a plus matchup. The Cowboys allow the second most fantasy points to tight ends.

DeMarco Murray has earned every-week RB1 treatment and then some, but his tough fantasy semifinals matchup is notable from a daily-league and expectations standpoint. Philadelphia's defensive strength is on the ground, where DC Bill Davis' unit permits just 3.66 YPC to running backs and ranks No. 8 in Football Outsiders' run-defense DVOA. The Eagles held Murray to 20-73-1 when these clubs played on Thanksgiving, and Marshawn Lynch to 23-86-0 on the ground last week. Murray is still a good bet to score at the goal line, and his recent uptick in passing-game usage raises both Murray's floor and ceiling. ... Playing through back and rib injuries, the arrow should be pointing up on Tony Romo's health following a long week after Dallas' Week 14 Thursday night win over Chicago. Romo was sharp against the Bears, completing a season-high 80.8% of his 26 throws for 205 yards and a hat trick of touchdowns. The Eagles give up a lot of passing-game production, allowing the fourth most touchdown passes (26) in football and the seventh most passing yards per game (258.1). Romo struggled against this same defense on Thanksgiving, but his poor play appeared injury related. Likely feeling better after an extended rest period, Romo is at very worst a low-end QB1 at Philadelphia.

Romo's target distribution over his last four games: Dez Bryant 32; Murray 26; Jason Witten 18; Cole Beasley 13; Terrance Williams 8; Lance Dunbar and Gavin Escobar 3. ... Dez has 70-plus yards and/or a touchdown in seven straight games. The Eagles -- and a hobbled Romo -- held Bryant in check (4-73-0) on Thanksgiving, but keep in mind Dez went 8-99-1 and 8-110 in these teams' two 2013 meetings, when Philadelphia had the same cornerbacks and same defensive coordinator that it does now. Dez is much likelier than not to rebound in this rubber match. ... Matchups haven't told us much about Witten this season because he's spent so much time blocking in Dallas' run-centric offense. It's still worth noting that Philadelphia allows the seventh fewest fantasy points to tight ends. Witten is working on a four-game streak of being held under 35 receiving yards. A low-end TE1 at best, Witten hasn't been a high-volume passing-game target this year. ... Williams' Week 14 goose egg was his second over the past month. He's cleared 40 yards once in his last seven games and remains scoreless since Week 7. Williams isn't worth a roster spot in the fantasy playoffs. ... Slot man Beasley has three touchdowns over the past three weeks, but has played just 34% of the Cowboys' snaps during that span. He's a role player, not a fantasy option.

Score Prediction: Eagles 30, Cowboys 24

Monday Night Football

New Orleans @ Chicago

With a 54-point over-under and New Orleans favored by three, Monday night's game sets up nicely for a Drew Brees bounce back following last week's unforeseen clunker. The Bears have been shredded by the pass all year, and particularly so over their last two games. Like Brees, Matthew Stafford and Tony Romo both entered their Weeks 13 and 14 dates with Chicago coming off bad games and/or stretches. They emerged combining to complete 55-of-71 throws (77.5%) for 595 yards (8.38 YPA) with five touchdowns and zero picks. On the year, Chicago has allowed a league-high 30 touchdown passes and a passer rating of 103.4, the NFL's third worst clip. Expect a box-score rebound for Brees against Mel Tucker's slump-busting defense. ... Having lost WLB Lance Briggs and MLB D.J. Williams for the season, the Bears have also begun playing sub-par run defense after defending the run relatively well for most of the year. Lions and Cowboys running backs carved up Chicago for 287 yards and four TDs on 56 runs (5.13 YPC) in their last two games. Considering his career-high workload this season, it's within the realm of possibility that Mark Ingram's light Week 14 usage (10 carries) may work in his favor over the final three weeks. Ingram had handled 23-plus rushing attempts in five of his previous six games. Now playing on a long week, Ingram is back in the RB1 discussion at Soldier Field. Breather back Khiry Robinson returned from his forearm injury in last week's loss to Carolina, but didn't play a snap.

Brees' target distribution since Brandin Cooks went on I.R. three games ago: Jimmy Graham 21; Kenny Stills 19; Pierre Thomas 18; Marques Colston 16; Nick Toon 11; Ben Watson 7; Ingram and Joe Morgan 6; Travaris Cadet 4. ... The Bears get torn up by tight ends, allowing the most fantasy points in the league to the position. Like Brees, Graham is an excellent bet to get back on track versus Chicago's league-worst safety-linebacker combination. ... Stills has been the Saints' No. 1 wideout since Cooks was lost for the year, and it hasn't been particularly close. Despite weak stat sheet numbers (3-23-0), Stills' 73% snap rate in last week's loss to the Panthers was his second highest of the season. Stills is probably more of a WR3 than the WR2 he produced like in Weeks 12 and 13, but he's a solid fantasy play against Chicago's sieve-like pass defense. ... On pace for a highly disappointing 57-869-4 receiving line this year, 31-year-old Colston is on the WR3 fringe despite this plus matchup. He's been more productive since the loss of Cooks, but has still cleared 60 receiving yards just twice over his last seven games. ... Seeing light and unpredictable usage since he returned from rib and shoulder injuries three games ago, Pierre Thomas' Weeks 12-14 snap rates were 53%, 25%, and 54% with touch totals of 11, 5, and 9. He's hard to take seriously as a flex play in the fantasy semifinals.

Jay Cutler's on-field performance has frustrated all season, but he still ranks No. 9 in fantasy quarterback scoring and has accounted for 13 touchdowns over his last six games. He's a surefire top-12 quarterback play in a plus matchup and in a game with a lofty over-under. Over the last month, New Orleans' pass defense has been gutted by Andy Dalton, Joe Flacco, Ben Roethlisberger, and Cam Newton for a combined 87-of-137 passing (63.5%), 1,124 yards (8.20 YPA), and a 9:2 TD-to-INT ratio. The Saints were forced to demote 2013 first-round pick SS Kenny Vaccaro this week for poor performance. ... The less-volatile and arguably higher-ceiling Week 15 fantasy play on Chicago's side is Matt Forte, whose matchup is similarly stellar. New Orleans has silver plattered 784 yards and six touchdowns on 136 carries (5.76 YPC) to running backs over the last five weeks, including Jonathan Stewart's 20-155-1 renaissance game last Sunday. Forte should be in the mix to finish as this week's top fantasy running back start.

Alshon Jeffery will almost certainly have to deal with Saints top CB Keenan Lewis' shadow coverage in this game, but that's not necessarily a bad thing. Not the same player since a midseason knee injury, Pro Football Focus has charged Lewis with five touchdowns allowed over his last five games. Among 102 qualifiers, Lewis is PFF's No. 90 cornerback over the last month. Jeffery has 100-plus yards and/or a touchdown in nine of his last 11 games and could be in store for an extreme-volume, Monday night blowup with Brandon Marshall (ribs/lung) out of commission. ... Starting in place of Marshall, second-year Bears WR Marquess Wilson is a Week 15 sleeper and worth a serious daily-league look at his minimum price tag. He should be a safe bet for six-plus targets, and perhaps as many as nine matching up with inconsistent Saints No. 2 corner Patrick Robinson. Wilson is just a boom-or-bust WR3 dart throw in re-draft leagues. ... The Saints have allowed the eighth fewest fantasy points in the league to tight ends, but coughed up a 10-72-1 receiving line to Greg Olsen last week and 8-82-0 to Heath Miller the week before. Martellus Bennett has assumed a huge role whenever Marshall has been hobbled this season and went 12-84-1 in last week's loss to Dallas when Marshall left 18 snaps into the game. Martellus is a top-three tight end play on Monday Night Football.

Score Prediction: Saints 30, Bears 24