Advertisement

Silva's Week 11 Matchups

Evan Silva
Evan Silva analyzes the matchups for every fantasy-relevant player in the Week 13 SNF and MNF games

1:00PM ET Games

Oakland @ Detroit

The Vegas total on Raiders-Lions is 48.5 points -- tied for the highest of Week 11 -- with visiting Oakland favored by 1.5. The Lions' team total is 23.5 points. ... Playing indoors against a weak pass defense, Matthew Stafford is a high-ceiling QB1 streamer and worthy of a long look in DFS tournaments. The Raiders have yielded multiple touchdown passes to the opposing quarterback in 7-of-9 games and 250-plus passing yards in 8-of-9 while ranking 21st in the league in sacks (19). Further enhancing Stafford's matchup is the Raiders' loss of OLB Aldon Smith (suspension), who ranked second on the team in sacks and quarterback hurries behind Khalil Mack. ... Detroit emerged from its Week 9 bye utilizing Joique Bell as a clear lead back against the Packers. Bell, however, managed 35 yards on 16 touches and 1.2 yards per carry, playing 60% of the snaps. Rookie Ameer Abdullah handled 18% of the downs, touching the ball only six times. Theo Riddick also logged six touches on a 26% playing-time clip. Although the Raiders have been gutted by DeAngelo Williams (27-170-2) and Adrian Peterson (26-203-1) in consecutive weeks, no Lions back is a trustworthy fantasy start in the league's most dysfunctional running game.

Stafford's target distribution coming off the bye: Calvin Johnson 9; Eric Ebron 8; Lance Moore 6; Golden Tate and Brandon Pettigrew 4; Riddick and Bell 3; Abdullah 1. ... The return of FS Nate Allen (knee) from I.R./recall last week strengthened the Raiders' secondary by allowing top cover man T.J. Carrie to move from safety back to corner. Megatron's matchup isn't quite as good as it would've been pre-Allen, but Calvin will still run enough routes at burnable sub-package CBs Neiko Thorpe and David Amerson to be worthy of an upside WR1 start. ... Although Tate has been a colossal fantasy disappointment, he is an intriguing WR3 play this week. Tate will primarily run pass patterns at Raiders slot CB D.J. Hayden, who has Pro Football Focus' No. 109 coverage grade among 110 qualified corners. ... Ebron had a horrendous Week 10 against the Packers, committing three drops and managing 28 yards on eight targets. Ebron now leads all tight ends in dropped passes (6). On paper, this is a bounce-back spot for Ebron against a Raiders defense allowing the second most fantasy points to tight ends. Still, 22-year-old Ebron is very clearly a raw, developing player who is best approached as a boom-bust TE1 streamer.

Favored by 1.5 on the road, the Raiders head to Ford Field with a team total of 25. ... On fire since Oakland's Week 6 bye, Derek Carr has completed 100-of-154 throws (64.9%) for 1,225 yards (7.95 YPA) and a 13:3 TD-to-INT ratio across Oakland's last four games. In Week 11, Carr will take on a Lions team that ranks 28th in Football Outsiders' pass-defense DVOA and has been decimated by cornerback injuries, losing RCB Rashean Mathis to injured reserve in Week 9, before LCB Nevin Lawson (concussion) and slot CB Josh Wilson (knee) went down against the Packers. Indoors against a porous defense with a solid scoring approximation, Carr is one of the top quarterback plays of the week. ... Latavius Murray's weekly touch totals since Oakland's open date are 16, 21, 19, and 17. Having hit pay dirt just once over his last six games, Murray should soon begin experiencing positive touchdown regression. The Lions' run defense has been up and down and mostly down, ranking 23rd in DVOA while coughing up a league-high 11 rushing scores through nine games. Murray is a high-ceiling RB1 start in this matchup.

Carr's target distribution since the bye: Michael Crabtree and Amari Cooper 37; Mychal Rivera and Clive Walford 13; Seth Roberts 11; Murray 10; Andre Holmes and Marcel Reece 8. ... The Lions have used top corner Darius Slay in shadow coverage in each of their last two games, holding Jeremy Maclin to 3-35-1 in London and James Jones to a goose egg last week. The expectation is that Slay will shadow Cooper, giving Crabtree a beautiful Week 11 matchup. Slay is PFF's No. 2-graded cornerback over the last five weeks. ... Although Rivera drew seven targets in last week's loss to the Vikings, his snap rate was only 42%. Not on the fantasy-start radar, Rivera has failed to clear 50 yards in all nine of the Raiders' games. No. 2 tight end Walford has scored a touchdown in three of the past four weeks, but he doesn't have more than two catches in a game all season and logged a 23% snap rate in last Sunday's loss to Minnesota.

Score Prediction: Lions 27, Raiders 24




Indianapolis @ Atlanta

Played in the comfy confines of Atlanta's Georgia Dome, Colts-Falcons has a 47.5-point Vegas total with Dan Quinn's club favored by six. The Falcons' team total is robust at nearly 27. ... Devonta Freeman has a gorgeous draw against an Indy defense that's coughed up 421 yards and five touchdowns on 91 carries (4.63 YPC) to opposing running backs over its last four games, and lost difference-making RE Henry Anderson to a torn ACL before its Week 10 bye. Anderson is a top-ten run-stopping 3-4 end according to Pro Football Focus. Freeman has handled at least 20 touches in five straight games. Now facing a Matt Hasselbeck-quarterbacked Colts team that's unlikely build a significant lead, Freeman should stay very busy. ... 15th at his position in fantasy scoring through nine games, Matt Ryan has thrown multiple touchdown passes in only two of his last six starts while failing to earn QB1 fantasy treatment. In a game Atlanta should control with its rushing attack, Ryan is more of a high-end QB2 than locked-in starter this week.

Another reason to not love Ryan this week is that the fantasy outlook of Atlanta's individual pass catchers is fairly grim, at least from a ceiling standpoint. Julio Jones will draw Vontae Davis, who limited Demaryius Thomas to 5-50-0 on seven targets just before Indy's bye. Davis does not always shadow No. 1s, but the Colts' website fully expects him do so in this game. The good news for season-long leaguers is Davis almost never travels into the slot, where Julio has run nearly a third of his routes. ... Leonard Hankerson would theoretically have a good on-paper draw against slot CB Darius Butler, but HankTime (hamstring) hasn't played since Week 6, was only able to practice on a limited basis this week, and has cleared 50 yards in just 2-of-6 appearances. Fantasy owners should want to see Hankerson "prove" he's healthy before leaning on him as a starter. ... Jacob Tamme's stat lines are 6-61, 10-103-1, 8-94, and 3-36 when Hankerson has either been inactive or missed much of the game. Tamme's stat lines with Hankerson as a full-time player are 3-19, 4-77, 1-8, and 3-32. Tamme would become arguably the top streamer TE1 of the week were Hankerson inactive, however. The Colts allow the tenth most fantasy points to tight ends and may be without field-general FS Mike Adams (ankle).

Indianapolis visits Atlanta as a six-point underdog with a team total under 21 points. ... The Colts expect Andrew Luck to miss "at least a month" with a lacerated kidney, forcing 40-year-old Matt Hasselbeck back into the lineup. Despite a noodle arm and scant mobility, Hasselbeck held his own in Week 4-5 spot-start wins over the Jaguars and Texans, completing 63.2% of his throws with a 6.5 yards-per-attempt average and 3:0 TD-to-INT ratio. He was the fantasy QB20 and QB16 in those weeks. Hasselbeck gets the ball out quickly and is very clearly aware of his own limitations. He's still best viewed as a low-ceiling two-quarterback-league option in fantasy leagues. ... The Colts leaned more heavily than usual on Frank Gore in Hasselbeck's early-season starts, feeding Angry Frank touch totals of 22 and 22. While never a true ceiling play, Gore is a high-floor RB2 against a Falcons team that ranks 16th in run-defense DVOA and has yielded a league-high 72 receptions to running backs. Only the Lions have permitted more rushing touchdowns to the position. ... Ahmad Bradshaw's touch counts are 5, 2, 7, and 7 since rejoining the Colts four games ago, logging snap rates of 24%, 46%, 33%, and 36%. Although he currently lacks standalone flex appeal, Bradshaw is worth stashing as an RB4 in season-long leagues.

Hasselbeck's target distribution in Weeks 4-5: T.Y. Hilton 22; Coby Fleener 15; Donte Moncrief 12; Andre Johnson 9; Gore 7; Dwayne Allen and Griff Whalen 1. ... Hilton stayed relevant in PPR leagues with stat lines of 7-67 and 5-88 in Hasselbeck's spot starts, but his big-play potential is curbed severely without Luck. As Hilton runs most of his routes at left corners, his matchup is daunting versus Falcons shutdown LCB Desmond Trufant. In PPR, Hilton should still be a useful WR2 on volume alone during Hasselbeck's run as the Colts' starter. ... Although Moncrief will get more chances against burnable rookie RCB Jalen Collins, he will also spend time in Trufant's coverage. Moncrief went 6-75 and 1-3 in Hasselbeck's starts and is a boom-bust WR3 play. ... Johnson's numbers are 0-0 and 6-77-2 in Hasselbeck's starts. Having cleared 50 yards in just 2-of-9 games this season -- goose egging in three -- Johnson offers minimal fantasy appeal despite his big Thursday nighter with Hasselbeck under center in Week 5. ... Hasselbeck targeted Fleener 12 times when Allen didn't play in Week 4. With Allen back in Week 5, Fleener's target total dipped to three. Neither Fleener nor Allen is a reliable option when both are active.

Score Prediction: Falcons 24, Colts 20

NY Jets @ Houston

Jets-Texans has a weak 41-point game total with New York favored by 2.5. ... Albeit in a small sample with one matchup against sack-taking machine Zach Mettenberger, Houston's defense has come alive recently, allowing zero touchdowns over its last ten quarters. Ryan Fitzpatrick does get the Texans on a short week in a #RevengeGame against his former team, but concerns include the Jets' low team total (under 22), Fitzpatrick's health after last Friday's thumb surgery, and a Texans defense that just finished shutting down a rich man's version of FitzMagic in Andy Dalton. Expect a mediocre fantasy return from Fitzpatrick this week. ... Whereas Houston has improved to No. 14 in Football Outsiders' pass-defense DVOA, DC Romeo Crennel's unit still ranks 19th versus the run with the tenth most fantasy points allowed to running backs. A Chris Ivory blowup game seems unlikely, but his volume is bankable. Behind Adrian Peterson (21.7), Ivory (19.5) ranks second in the NFL in rushing attempts per game. The return of passing-down specialist Bilal Powell created some concern in the fantasy community this week, but Ivory's touch totals in four early-season games played with Powell were 21, 16, 29, and 23.

Fitzpatrick's target distribution since the Jets' Week 5 bye: Eric Decker 38; Brandon Marshall 36; Jeremy Kerley 12; Ivory 11; Jeff Cumberland and Kenbrell Thompkins 8. ... Quietly emerging as FitzMagic's favorite target, Decker has scored a touchdown and/or topped 90 yards in all eight of his 2015 appearances. Decker also gets the best matchup in the Jets' pass-catcher corps this week, taking on Hard Knocks star Charles James, who was cut in September but is now playing slot corner for the Texans. Decker is running nearly 70% of his routes in the slot. ... Brandon Marshall is a top-ten fantasy receiver on the year and therefore an every-week starter in season-long leagues. Marshall's per-game yardage average has dipped to 60.5 over the last month, however, and his Week 11 matchup is more imposing against rock-solid Texans outside cover men Johnathan Joseph and Kevin Johnson. On Monday Night Football, Joseph and Johnson held A.J. Green and Marvin Jones to stat lines of 5-67-0 and 4-44-0 on a combined 16 targets. ... Thompkins has earned a significant role in the Jets' three- and four-wide attack, bypassing Kerley on the depth chart and logging a 69% snap rate in New York's Week 10 loss to Buffalo. For owners in major bye-week crunches, Thompkins is worth a long-shot look.

Even as winners of two in a row, the Week 11 prospects for Houston's offense are awfully bleak. The Texans' team total is overly aggressive at above 19 points against a talented and rested Jets defense coming off a ten-day layoff following its Thursday night loss to Buffalo. At or near full strength, New York's defensive front has the capability of eliminating Houston's triple-pronged, already-ineffective rushing attack, rendering the Texans' offense one-dimensional, and forcing Brian Hoyer (concussion) fill-in T.J. Yates into a high-volume role. ... Yates did throw a touchdown pass to DeAndre Hopkins in relief on Monday night, but Hopkins got in minimal practice time with Yates this week while nursing a knee injury, and now will do battle with Darrelle Revis. With the exception of Hopkins as an every-week starter in season-long leagues, the Texans' offense should be faded across the board in Week 11. ... Here is an update on Nate Washington's receiving stats with Cecil Shorts active this season: 2-32-0, 4-42-0, 3-63-0, and 6-105-0. Here are Shorts' numbers when Washington plays: 4-57-0, 6-34-0, 6-58-0, 3-16-0.

Score Prediction: Jets 20, Texans 17


Tampa Bay @ Philadelphia

Bucs-Eagles has a game total of 45 with Philadelphia favored by 5.5 points. The Eagles' team total is above 25. ... If Philly is going to hit its relatively aggressive scoring approximation, it'll likely come on the back of Mark Sanchez facing a Tampa Bay defense that stops the run but is shaky at best defending the pass. Third to last in the NFL in both completion rate (69.8) and QB rating allowed (102.5), the Bucs have a 19:7 TD-to-INT ratio against and rank 24th in pass-defense DVOA. At the controls of Chip Kelly's offense last year, Sanchez was the No. 8 overall cumulative fantasy passer from Weeks 10-17, recording weekly finishes of QB7, QB9, QB16, QB11, QB27, QB26, QB9, and QB6 across eight starts. Sanchez is worth a serious look as a Week 11 streamer. ... The Bucs are playing shutdown run defense, holding Cowboys, Giants, Falcons, and Redskins backs to a combined 288 yards and zero touchdowns on 91 carries (3.16 YPC) since Tampa's Week 6 bye. Football Outsiders has assigned the Bucs with its No. 4 run-defense grade. Averaging 24.6 touches over his last five games, DeMarco Murray's extreme-volume usage still locks him in as an every-week RB1, and Ryan Mathews' (concussion) expected inactivity makes Murray an intriguing contrarian DFS play. Mathews has been stealing 9-11 touches per week. ... Darren Sproles hasn't exceeded eight touches in a game since Week 3. Although Mathews' absence might translate to a small uptick, Sproles and Mathews play very different roles and ultimately it would be stretching to expect a meaningful bump.

Sanchez's target distribution off the bench last week: Murray and Sproles 5; Zach Ertz and Miles Austin 3; Jordan Matthews and Nelson Agholor 2; Josh Huff, Brent Celek, and Ryan Mathews 1. ... The good news for Jordan Matthews is his pace stats were 70-1,118-10 in Sanchez's eight 2014 starts. The bad news is Matthews logged a season-low 59% of Philly's Week 10 snaps as the Eagles emphasized increased two-tight end usage at the expense of their slot receiver. Matthews did miss a number of snaps after getting his wind knocked out during the game. With Bucs slot CB Alterraun Verner playing well recently, Matthews is a boom-bust WR3 option. ... Ertz has exceeded 60 receiving yards in two of his last three games and has five or more catches in four of his last five. Ertz is a strong streamer play against a Bucs defense that gave up 11-110-1 to Falcons tight ends in Week 8 and 6-66 to Dallas tight ends with Matt Cassel at quarterback last week. Ertz had a 15-catch game on 18 targets with Sanchez under center last December.

The Bucs travel to Philadelphia as 5.5-point underdogs with a team total under 20 points. ... His numbers buoyed by four rushing touchdowns, Jameis Winston enters Week 11 ranked 14th among quarterbacks in fantasy scoring despite having thrown multiple TD passes in just 3-of-9 games and failing to clear 300 passing yards in all nine. Winston's matchup is daunting Sunday versus an Eagles team that ranks third in Football Outsiders' pass-defense DVOA and fifth in interceptions (12). In a run-committed offense with limited weaponry, Winston has not exhibited much of a ceiling during his rookie year. ... The Eagles' once-vaunted run defense has looked ordinary the past three weeks, ceding 349 yards on 77 carries (4.53 YPC) to Panthers, Cowboys, and Dolphins running backs. Doug Martin has not scored a touchdown since Week 5 and his efficiency has dipped sharply the past three weeks (3.17 YPC). Still averaging over 20 touches per game across the last month, Martin is at worst a volume-reliable RB2 play.

The availabilities of Austin Seferian-Jenkins (shoulder) and Vincent Jackson (knee) will again be late-week and perhaps even game-time decisions. Seferian-Jenkins continues to await medical clearance, while Jackson participated in Thursday's practice, and was spotted making cuts and running routes. ... With both Seferian-Jenkins and Jackson sidelined since the Bucs' Week 6 bye, Mike Evans has drawn mammoth target totals of 12, 9, 19, and 13. Despite their overall stout pass defense, the Eagles' cornerbacks are vulnerable. Both RCB Nolan Carroll and LCB Byron Maxwell have negative coverage grades from PFF, while NFL.com's Gil Brandt assigned both with bottom-eight "burn rates" among NFL defensive backs. Oakland's D.J. Hayden, Pittsburgh's Antwon Blake, New Orleans' Brandon Browner, and the Giants' Landon Collins were among those joining Carroll and Maxwell at the bottom in burn rate. Now facing the up-tempo Eagles -- who rank fifth in the NFL in offensive plays and, correspondingly, seventh in defensive plays against -- Evans appears trustworthy as a high-floor WR1 and always offers a big ceiling.

Score Prediction: Eagles 27, Bucs 21

Denver @ Chicago

Broncos-Bears has a 41-point Vegas total -- tied for second lowest of Week 11 -- with Chicago favored by one. Now quarterbacked by Brock Osweiler, Denver's team total is just 20 points. ... A once-heralded prep basketball recruit, Osweiler's mobility will give Gary Kubiak's offense a dimension it lacked with Peyton Manning, useful on bootlegs and to create a "moving pocket." Although it didn't show up for dead-armed Peyton, Kubiak's scheme is historically quarterback friendly, coaxing career-best play out of Joe Flacco, Matt Schaub, Sage Rosenfels, and Jake Plummer. The conservative nature with which the Broncos figure to handle Osweiler in his first start may cap his theoretical upside, but my guess is we'll see him have Week 11 success against a Bears squad that ranks 18th in pass-defense DVOA and 28th in sacks (15) while permitting a 17:5 TD-to-INT ratio to quarterbacks. Osweiler has two-QB-league and dart-throw streamer appeal in this favorable draw. ... Game flow adversely impacted both backs' Week 10 usage, but Ronnie Hillman operated as the Broncos' 1A runner to C.J. Anderson's 1B in last Sunday's loss to Kansas City. Whereas Anderson managed two touches on 40% of the snaps, Hillman played 45% and handled the rock 13 times, totaling 51 yards with a fourth-quarter goal-line plunge. It is likely that Osweiler's movement skills will help Denver's running game. In season-long leagues, Hillman offers low-end RB2/flex appeal against a Bears run defense that ranks 31st in DVOA while allowing 4.43 yards per carry to running backs. Anderson would be a poor flex option.

Osweiler's targets off the bench last week: Demaryius Thomas 7; Owen Daniels, Vernon Davis, Andre Caldwell, Cody Latimer, and Bennie Fowler 3; Hillman and Juwan Thompson 1. ... Albeit in garbage time, Thomas secured six of Osweiler's seven targets for 54 yards and is the strongest fantasy play in Denver's pass-catcher corps taking on inconsistent Bears RCB Kyle Fuller and burnable LCB Tracy Porter. It would be reasonable to expect Osweiler to treat Demaryius as a high-volume safety valve. ... Sanders was sidelined by a finger injury when Osweiler entered, but he is fully expected to play at Chicago. Although we have no data on them playing together, Sanders' chunk-yardage ability and plus matchup warrant WR2 treatment in season-long leagues. Demaryius is a better play in DFS. ... With Davis taking on an expanded role, Daniels' snap rate dipped to 62% in last Sunday's loss to Kansas City. Davis' snaps jumped from 17% in his Week 9 Broncos debut to 48% last week. In-line blocker Virgil Green handled 27% of the downs. Denver's tight end corps currently lacks fantasy start-ability as a three-way TEBC.

Favored by a point at home, the Bears' Week 11 team total is 21. ... OC Adam Gase deserves a lot of credit for out-scheming the Rams' usually-superb defense last week. The Bears attacked St. Louis with quick-hitting, high-percentage throws designed to mitigate the impact of the Rams' aggressiveness, countering it with running back and tight end screens that turned short plays into long gains. Gase will very likely use a similar strategy against the Von Miller-led Broncos, who lead the NFL in sacks (32) and field the league's premier pass defense by virtually every metric. The results don't figure to be quite as lofty as last week's -- Denver has allowed multiple touchdown passes in just two games this season -- but Jay Cutler has played his way into every-week QB1 status. He's at the lower end of the top-12 plays in Week 11. ... As usual, the Bears aren't going to tip their hand on Matt Forte's (knee) availability until the latest point in the week they possibly can. My guess is we'll see another heavy dose of Jeremy Langford, who shared 14 touches with Ka'Deem Carey in St. Louis but still emerged with 27 of his own. Langford has been especially productive in the passing game, and in Week 11 will take on a Broncos defense coughing up six catches per week to running backs. Denver hemorrhaged 161 total yards and two touchdowns to fellow all-purpose threat Charcandrick West last week.

It all depends on your alternatives, but this is a week where I might seriously consider sitting Alshon Jeffery in a season-long league. Truly a decoy in last week's upset of the Rams, Jeffery entered Week 10 averaging over 13 targets per game from Cutler, and left with four, all of the short variety. Jeffery's snap rate of 55% was another season low. He proceeded to miss Thursday's practice with shoulder and groin injuries. Now facing a Broncos defense that's allowed one touchdown pass to opposing wide receivers and is getting back Aqib Talib from suspension, Jeffery is a scary fantasy play. ... The Bears went heavy on two-tight end formations in last week's upset of the Rams, playing Martellus Bennett on 100% of the downs and athletic backup Zach Miller on a season-high 79%. Miller turned in a career game (5-107-2) but still only saw five targets and could easily take a backseat to Bennett and/or Marquess Wilson this week. Miller is a low-floor streamer play. ... Bennett's receiving production has been so up and down because he is employed as a blocker so frequently. For instance, Martellus spent over 60% of last week's game on the line blocking. Still, with Jeffery hobbled and Miller very unlikely to repeat, I like Bennett's odds of rebounding with a decent box-score game against Denver.

Score Prediction: Broncos 23, Bears 21

St. Louis @ Baltimore

Rams-Ravens has a sluggish 41-point total with host Baltimore favored by 2.5. The Ravens' team total is a tick below 22. ... St. Louis' defensive personnel losses were exposed in last week's 37-13 home drubbing by the Bears. Minus LE Chris Long (knee) and WLB Alec Ogletree (fibula) while dealing with RE Robert Quinn's (knee) diminished effectiveness, the Rams were burned incessantly for big plays on the ground and through the air. For Justin Forsett, this is not quite as impossible a matchup as it would've appeared a few weeks back. St. Louis has yielded rushing lines of 29-125-1 (Adrian Peterson), 20-73-1 (Jeremy Langford), and 14-56 (Ka'Deem Carey) over its last two games. A bigger concern for Forsett is the Ravens' loss of C Jeremy Zuttah, PFF's No. 8 overall center among 36 qualifiers. ... Jay Cutler exploited holes in the middle of the Rams' defense in Week 10, going 19-of-24 passing for 258 yards and three first-half touchdowns before the Langford-Carey combo put the game away. Even with Quinn, Long, and Ogletree in the lineup this season, St. Louis' defense has been more vulnerable on the road than in home games. This is an average to above-average matchup for Flacco, who would be smart to take a hint from Cutler and lean heavily on Forsett and his tight ends in the passing game. Very quietly, Flacco is this year's No. 11 fantasy quarterback. He's a fringe QB1 play versus St. Louis.

Flacco's target distribution coming off Baltimore's Week 9 bye: Kamar Aiken 14; Chris Givens 7; Kyle Juszczyk 5; Forsett, Crockett Gillmore, and Maxx Williams 4; Nick Boyle 3; Buck Allen 2. ... A nagging groin injury played its part, but the Rams still gave up little to Alshon Jeffery (3-23-0) last week and have yielded minimal production to No. 1 wideouts all season. Recently, they stymied Stefon Diggs (3-42-0) in Week 9 and Travis Benjamin (4-47-0) in Week 7, and overall have permitted the NFL's second fewest fantasy points to wide receivers. Although Aiken and Givens are locked in as Baltimore's Nos. 1 and 2 wideouts, they are both underwhelming fantasy options in this game. ... Gillmore (4-42-1) paid off as a Week 10 streamer and should be useful again this week. Badly missing Ogletree in second-level coverage, the Rams gave up 8-111 to Browns tight ends in Week 7, seven catches to 49ers tight ends in Week 8, and 8-125-2 to Bears tight ends in Week 10. In order to compensate for Smith Sr.'s loss, the Ravens emerged from their bye using tight ends as passing-game focal points against the Jaguars. With Breshad Perriman (knee) joining Smith on I.R., expect that to remain the case the rest of the way.

Entering Week 11 with a new quarterback and several key offensive linemen on the shelf, the Rams visit Baltimore with a team total just above 19. ... A 6-foot-1, 208-pound gunslinger with sneaky athleticism but a history of struggling mightily to diagnose the blitz, Case Keenum has replaced ineffective Nick Foles under center for the Rams. Acquired by St. Louis for a seventh-round pick last March, Keenum made ten starts for the 2013-2014 Texans, completing 55.2% of his throws with 12 all-purpose touchdowns and 11 turnovers. Keenum should be an obvious target for Ravens D/ST streamers, but also has #YOLO standalone appeal against a Ravens team that ranks 25th in pass-defense DVOA with an 18:4 TD-to-INT ratio allowed. Keenum plays with such a high level of aggressiveness that he'll probably either light up the stat sheet or be a total disaster from the opening drive on. ... Another reason to be intrigued by Keenum is the low probability Todd Gurley gets much going on Sunday. Already having lost RG Rodger Saffold (shoulder) for the season, St. Louis will be without RT Rob Havenstein (calf), LG/RG Jamon Brown (leg), and swing OT Darrell Williams (wrist) in Baltimore. The Ravens have held enemy backs to 3.75 yards per carry and just three rushing TDs in nine games. On the road with a scary-looking supporting cast in a tough matchup, expectations need to be checked for Gurley.

The impact of Keenum on St. Louis' pass catchers remains to be seen. Keenum's aggressiveness did bring to life a struggling Andre Johnson during a brief midseason period in 2013. As a stretch-run stash in season-long leagues, Brian Quick is an intriguing pickup after he logged year highs in snap rate (51%) and targets (7) in last week's loss to Chicago. ... The Rams won't deviate from their run-foundation approach, but in this game they ultimately may have to throw to move the chains. To date, the lone fantasy-viable Rams receiver has been Tavon Austin, who leads St. Louis in targets (50), catches (30), and receiving TDs (4) and has three or more rushing attempts in six of the Rams' nine games. Austin managed 23 yards on five touches last week, but did have a 17-yard touchdown negated by a holding penalty. In a Week 11 game where the Rams figure to dial up a high-percentage passing approach with quick hitters and screens in Keenum's first start, Austin is a WR3/flex play with some upside at Baltimore.

Score Prediction: Ravens 21, Rams 17


Dallas @ Miami

The Vegas total on Boys-Fins is 47.5 with a "Pick 'Em" line. In Tony Romo's return game, Dallas' team total is just below 24 points. ... Missing top pass rusher Cameron Wake (Achilles') and dealing with weekly secondary shuffling, Miami's defense has been touched up by Brian Hoyer, Tom Brady, Tyrod Taylor, and Sam Bradford/Mark Sanchez for a combined 93-of-147 passing (63.3%), 1,202 yards (8.18 YPA), and a 9:2 TD-to-INT ratio over its last four games. This is a good enough matchup for Romo to be immediately reinstalled as a fantasy QB1, albeit with modest expectations coming back from a two-month layoff. The Cowboys' won't stop running the ball with volume and should have success doing so against the Fins. ... Darren McFadden has logged 20 or more touches in four straight weeks and no longer has to worry about losing change-up carries to enigmatic Christine Michael, who was cut on Tuesday. After he got nothing going (1.9 YPC) in last week's tough matchup with an underrated Bucs run defense, McFadden should have an easier time busting gains against a Miami team that ranks 21st in Football Outsiders' run-defense DVOA and has permitted the second most fantasy points in the league to running backs. On Wednesday, Fins coach Dan Campbell said he expected both WLB Jelani Jenkins (ankle) and SLB Koa Misi (abdomen) to be "game-time decisions" against Dallas. Jenkins and Misi are Miami's best two run-stopping linebackers. Most importantly, Romo's return will loosen up the defense. McFadden is a prime bounce-back investment on daily fantasy sites.

Thursday Update: McFadden was "limited" in Thursday's practice with a groin injury, which sent up immediate red flags based on his torturous injury history. National media reports indicated McFadden was merely given a rest day. This is a situation to track closely into the weekend. If McFadden can't play, the Cowboys would presumably turn to a three-way RBBC of Rod Smith, Trey Williams, and Robert Turbin.

Jason Witten caught two touchdown passes in Romo's Week 1 start and gets a gorgeous Week 11 draw against a Dolphins defense that hemorrhaged 11-202 receiving to Eagles TEs Brent Celek and Zach Ertz last week, and on the season has permitted the eighth most yards in the league to tight ends. Witten has held steady even amid quarterback woes, catching five or more passes in all but two games this season. ... Dolphins top corner Brent Grimes will return after missing Week 10 with an illness, but was shredded by Sammy Watkins (8-168-1) in his last game, and stands 5-foot-9, 177 to Dez Bryant's 6-foot-2, 225. Also potentially hitting his decline phase, Grimes is 32 years old to Bryant's 27. With Romo back and McFadden perhaps hobbled, this is a possible blowup spot for Dez. ... Held under 50 yards in six of his last seven games, Terrance Williams has disappointed all year. I do think he's worth an add for receiver-needy season-long owners down the stretch. The quarterback upgrade will do wonders for Dallas' offense, while Williams offers big-play ability even in his low-volume role. I think he's a sneaky dart-throw DFS tournament option this week with upside on the off chance Grimes does slow down Dez.

With a Pick 'Em line and a 47.5-point game total, Miami's team total is also just under 24. ... Ryan Tannehill is an underwhelming Week 11 fantasy option against a Dallas defense allowing the third fewest passing touchdowns in football. 17th among quarterbacks in fantasy scoring this season, Tannehill is 76-of-116 passing for 826 yards (7.12 YPA) and a 2:2 TD-to-INT ratio over his last three games. Tannehill's ceiling is capped by his inability to consistently stretch the field and minimal rushing usage. Whereas former college wide receiver Tannehill piled up 56 rushing attempts in 2014, he is on pace for just 30 runs this season. ... The outlook is better for Lamar Miller facing a Dallas defense that's permitted 823 yards and seven TDs on 177 carries (4.65 YPC) to running backs over its last seven games. The Cowboys now rank 27th in run-defense DVOA. Although Miller has begun to lose some rushing work to impressive rookie Jay Ajayi, Miller has still hit or exceeded 17 touches in 4-of-5 games since the Dolphins' Week 5 bye with reception totals of 5, 7, and 6 the past three weeks. Dallas has allowed the NFL's fifth most catches to running backs. ... Change-of-pace back Ajayi has 89 yards on 11 carries (8.09 YPC) since coming off I.R./return two weeks ago. He has not been targeted in the passing game, however, and his snap rates are 10% and 19% to Miller's 81% and 81%. Ajayi is not a standalone flex option, but he could push for RB1 late-season value if something happened to Miller.

Tannehill's targets since Miami's Week 5 bye: Jarvis Landry 42; Rishard Matthews 31; Miller 26; Jordan Cameron 19; Kenny Stills 18; Dion Sims 11. ... When Cowboys RCB Morris Claiborne (hamstring) exited last Sunday's game against the Bucs, imposing rookie slot CB/FS Byron Jones kicked outside and previously-benched Tyler Patmon entered to cover the slot. Almost strictly a slot receiver, Landry would have a great matchup if he sees more of Patmon. A Thursday article on the Cowboys' website strongly indicated Jones would play LCB this week, with Brandon Carr on the right side and Patmon in the slot. If so, Landry could dominate on Sunday. ... Matthews appears poised to mainly deal with Jones and Carr outside. It's an average to below-average matchup for Matthews, who is best viewed as a low-end WR3 in season-long leagues. ... Even in an attractive matchup, Cameron has become a complete fantasy non-factor with target totals of 2, 5, 1, and 3 over his last four games. He belongs on waivers in 14-team fantasy leagues.


Score Prediction: Cowboys 27, Dolphins 23

Washington @ Carolina

The Redskins visit the Panthers as seven-point underdogs with a team total of barely over 19. This is a classic letdown spot for Washington coming off a 47-14 home upset of New Orleans and now on the road to face 9-0 Carolina. Last week's Redskins box score can be thrown out from a forward-looking standpoint. ... Aaron Rodgers is the only quarterback to have faced Carolina and posted a top-12 fantasy quarterback week. The Panthers rank No. 2 in pass-defense DVOA with a league-high 14 interceptions and league-low 69.1 QB rating allowed. Carolina is sixth in the NFL in sacks (26). Fantasy owners who picked up Cousins to stream him against the Saints should feel comfortable dropping him ahead of Week 11. ... The Panthers tightened up their previously-slumping run defense in Weeks 8-10, holding Titans, Packers, and Colts RBs to a combined 190 yards and one touchdown on 59 runs (3.22 YPC). Although Alfred Morris and Matt Jones both turned in productive games against the Saints, the Redskins' three-way backfield stayed intact, with Morris logging 40% of the snaps, Jones 37%, and passing-game specialist Chris Thompson 17%. Unlike last week, Washington's rushing offense is highly unlikely to impose its will on the Panthers. Morris and Jones are shaky flex options in Week 11.

Cousins' targets since DeSean Jackson returned: Jamison Crowder 13; Jackson and Jordan Reed 11; Pierre Garcon 10; Jones 6; Thompson 5; Morris and Derek Carrier 3. ... Crowder's playing time has held steady (84%) since Jackson came back, and the rookie slot man has the premier Week 11 matchup in Washington's pass-catcher corps. Whereas D-Jax and Garcon will primarily line up across from stout boundary corners Charles Tillman and Josh Norman, Crowder will run routes at liability slot defender Bene Benwikere, who has allowed three touchdown passes over the last three weeks. Crowder's ceiling is limited as a 5-foot-8, 185-pound receiver with sub-par speed (4.56) and a 9.6 yards-per-reception average, but it would not be surprising if Crowder paced Redskins wide receivers in targets and catches this week. ... Jackson is still in prove-it mode after his hamstring tear -- he played only 49% of Washington's Week 10 offensive snaps -- while Garcon appears to have faded into the Redskins' No. 4 pass option. ... The strongest fantasy play in Washington's pass-catcher corps remains Reed, who ranks third among tight ends in per-game PPR scoring behind only Rob Gronkowski and Antonio Gates. Reed is second among tight ends in red-zone targets. Athletic at linebacker but slow at safety, the Panthers are mediocre in tight end coverage, permitting the 17th most fantasy points to the position.

Favored by a touchdown at home, Carolina's team total is above 26 points. ... Cam Newton gets a plus Week 11 matchup versus a leaky Washington pass defense that's been burned for 85-of-122 passing (69.7%), 1,058 yards (8.67 YPA), and an 8:3 TD-to-INT ratio over the last month. The Redskins rank 28th in the league in sacks (15) and should provide Cam with a clean pocket from which to deal. Newton has also been better at home than on the road this season, turning in weekly fantasy finishes of QB4, QB3, QB14, QB12, and QB1 in Carolina compared to QB21, QB14, QB9, and QB8 and in four away games. For obvious reasons, I like to play Newton in matchups with opponents that struggle versus both the run and pass. Washington is 19th in Football Outsiders' pass-defense DVOA and 20th against the run. ... Jonathan Stewart also gets a plum draw versus a Redskins defense that's submitted 833 yards on 153 carries (5.44 YPC) to opposing running backs over its last five games. Stewart's workloads since Carolina's Week 5 bye are 21, 24, 25, 21, and 22. He's a borderline RB1 play versus Washington.

Newton's targets since the Panthers' bye: Greg Olsen 43; Ted Ginn 34; Corey Brown 18; Jerricho Cotchery 17; Devin Funchess 15; Ed Dickson 9; Stewart 6; Mike Tolbert 3. ... Washington is 28th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends, but Olsen has been matchup proof due in large part to consistent and heavy volume. Schematically, the Redskins' zone defense should theoretically be vulnerable to the routes Olsen runs over the middle and up the seams. I'm not worried about his matchup this week. ... Ginn lines up almost strictly against right cornerbacks and has the best Week 11 draw in Carolina's pass-catcher corps versus Redskins RCB Chris Culliver, who has been dogged by injuries and played in five games this season, earning a negative Pro Football Focus grade in each of the last four. Averaging over seven targets across his last four games, Ginn is worth a dice-roll WR3 play for owners willing to wager Cam turns in a monster game. ... Perhaps beginning to take a midseason rookie-year step forward, Funchess has secured seven of his last eight targets for 140 yards and a touchdown, turning in several chunk-yardage gains. Funchess' snap rates the last two weeks are 26% and 32%, however. In 14- and 16-team leagues, Funchess is worth a stash as a potential WR3/flex option for the stretch run.

Score Prediction: Panthers 30, Redskins 17

4:05PM ET Game

Kansas City @ San Diego

Chiefs-Chargers has a pedestrian 44.5-point Vegas total with visiting Kansas City favored by three. The Chiefs' team total is a shade below 24 at Qualcomm Stadium. ... The premier fantasy play on Kansas City's side is every-down workhorse Charcandrick West, who's logged snap rates of 88%, 84%, and 87% over his last three games with touch counts of 24, 24, and 27. Coming off a 161-total-yard, two-touchdown eruption against the mighty Broncos defense, West will now do battle with a Chargers team surrendering the most fantasy points in the league to running backs and a generous 5.05 yards-per-carry average. 24-year-old West has emerged as a top-five RB1 play every week. ... Alex Smith will break Steve DeBerg's franchise record for consecutive attempts without an interception if he throws six more passes without tossing a pick. Unfortunately, Alex has just one multi-touchdown game since Week 1 while averaging 241 passing yards per game during that stretch. Never an upside option, Smith is still worthy of QB1 streamer discussion in a matchup with San Diego's leaky pass defense, which ranks 27th in Football Outsiders' DVOA, 25th in sacks (16), and 29th in passer rating allowed (102.3).

Smith's target distribution coming off Kansas City's Week 9 bye: Travis Kelce 9; Jeremy Maclin 6; West and De'Anthony Thomas 5; Albert Wilson 4. ... Top wideout Maclin is sure to get the Jason Verrett treatment, taking on San Diego's ultra-talented top corner in one-on-one coverage. San Diego's Week 10 bye ostensibly allowed Verrett to overcome his early-season groin woes, as he turned in a full week of practice. Despite missing one game and parts of several others, Verrett carries Pro Football Focus' No. 6 coverage grade among 110 qualifying cornerbacks. ... Although it only translated to 36 scoreless yards, Kelce's nine targets against Denver were a season high, and his snap rate (96%) was Zeus' second highest of the year. Kelce went 7-84 when the Chiefs hosted San Diego last Week 17 and is a mid-range to high-end TE1 play against a San Diego defense permitting the ninth most fantasy points to tight ends. If Verrett slows down Maclin, Kelce could become Kansas City's primary means of moving the football through the air.

San Diego returns from its bye week as a three-point home underdog with a sub-21-point team total. ... The Chiefs were a pass defense to target early in the season, but things have changed. Kansas City has allowed a league-low 14 points per game since Week 5, while holding enemy quarterbacks to 75-of-142 passing (52.8%) for 866 yards (6.10 YPA) and a 4:11 TD-to-INT ratio with 15 sacks over their last four games. It should be noted that the Chiefs' schedule during that stretch has consisted of Teddy Bridgewater, Landry Jones, Matthew Stafford/Dan Orlovsky, and Peyton Manning/Brock Osweiler. Still, Kansas City's personnel always suggested DC Bob Sutton's unit should be playing stout pass defense, while Week 11 opponent Philip Rivers' weapons have been decimated by injury. Rivers remains an every-week QB1 in season-long leagues, but expectations might need to be dampened here. ... The consistent portion of Kansas City's defense has been on the ground, where it's held opposing running backs to 3.98 yards per carry and is yielding the second fewest RB receptions in the league. From those standpoints, this doesn't appear to be a promising draw for either Melvin Gordon or Danny Woodhead.

Now on I.R., Keenan Allen (kidney) exited San Diego's Week 8 loss to Baltimore just before the half. Here is Rivers' target distribution since Allen left that game: Antonio Gates 14; Stevie Johnson 13; Woodhead 11; Gordon and Dontrelle Inman 6; Malcom Floyd 3; Javontee Herndon 2. ... Previously battling a mobility-sapping MCL injury, 35-year-old Gates should be the biggest beneficiary of San Diego's Week 10 bye. Gates' Week 11 matchup will be difficult, however, against a Chiefs defense that is not only allowing the fewest fantasy points in the league to tight ends, but held Gates to pedestrian receiving lines of 3-61-1 and 4-67-0 in last year's two meetings. The second came with Allen (collarbone) inactive. Gates remains a strong play in season-long leagues, but I don't love him in DFS this week. ... Johnson drew ten targets against the Bears before the bye, finishing with seven catches and narrowly missing on a touchdown chance when he was tackled at the four-yard line. Johnson has a solid matchup against Chiefs FS/slot CB Ron Parker, whose coverage has been up and down. PFF charged Parker with eight catches allowed in last week's win over Denver. ... With Floyd (shoulder) looking iffy at best to play on Sunday, Inman is in line to start at No. 2 receiver. Inman managed 28 yards on five targets with a lost fumble versus Chicago, but played 99% of the Chargers' offensive snaps. If Floyd is indeed declared inactive, Inman will be an underrated WR3 play in PPR leagues.

Score Prediction: Chargers 23, Chiefs 20


4:25PM ET Games

Green Bay @ Minnesota

Sunday's critical division showdown between the Packers and Vikings has a 44.5-point total with host Minnesota favored by one. The team total on Mike Zimmer's squad is just under 23 points. ... If Minnesota is going to reach its scoring approximation, it'll likely occur on the shoulders of Adrian Peterson, who has at least 20 touches in eight straight games. Week 11 opponent Green Bay has played Jekyll & Hyde week-to-week run defense all year long, but overall has coughed up eight all-purpose TDs to running backs in nine games while ranking 17th in Football Outsiders' DVOA. We're going back to 2012 and 2013 for this, but Peterson's last five rushing lines against Packers DC Dom Capers' defense are 21-210-1, 34-199-1, 22-99, 13-60-1, and 32-146-1. Averaging 5.63 yards per carry over his last four games and getting stronger as the season progresses, Peterson is arguably the top fantasy running back play of the week. ... Although Green Bay's pass defense has stumbled lately -- Capers' unit has gone three consecutive games without a sack -- Teddy Bridgewater's low-volume, game-manager usage keeps him at the basement of the QB2 spectrum. Bridgewater is 27th in fantasy quarterback scoring with only one multi-passing-touchdown game. Bridgewater's average of 28.2 pass attempts per game is 30th among quarterbacks with at least 100 throws this season.

Bridgewater's target distribution since the Vikings' Week 5 bye: Stefon Diggs 37; Mike Wallace 26: Jarius Wright 16; Kyle Rudolph 15; Peterson 11; MyCole Pruitt 8. ... Diggs has felt the effects of playing in a run-devoted offense the past two weeks, seeing target totals of 5 and 2. His Week 11 draw is also a concern against Packers top cover man RCB Sam Shields, at whom Diggs will run upwards of 70% of his routes. Diggs has settled in as much more of a WR3/flex than the WR2 he looked to be less than a month ago. ... Over his last three games, Wallace has 26 yards on 12 targets. I still believe Charles Johnson would give Minnesota's passing game more than Wallace is offering. ... Although Rudolph plays the most, from a fantasy perspective the Vikings' tight end group of Rudolph, Pruitt, and Rhett Ellison can essentially be viewed as a three-way timeshare. With Pruitt and Ellison also drawing sporadic usage, Rudolph has failed to top five targets in a game since Week 2. Scoreless in three straight, Rudolph lacks streamer appeal.

One-point road dogs in a game with a 44.5-point total, the Packers' Week 11 team total is below 22. ... Although James Starks has been named the starter in Green Bay's backfield, coach Mike McCarthy was adamant this week that Eddie Lacy will be involved in the running game, stating Starks would handle the opening possession and Lacy would get the second. Lacy (groin) turned in a full week of practice and should be near full strength. With usage question marks in a sputtering offense, Starks is best approached as a shaky RB2/flex option. Lacy would be a low-floor RB3/flex. The Packers' backfield does theoretically have a plus Week 11 draw against a Minnesota team that ranks 28th in run-defense DVOA. ... The Vikings have been better at defending the pass, where their DVOA mark is 15th and they've surrendered the fifth fewest passing TDs (11) in football. Green Bay's offensive woes have stemmed from a combination of its lack of a consistent, sustaining running game, wide receivers who can't defeat man coverage, and -- lately -- Aaron Rodgers' tendency to drop his eyes and stare at the pass rush. Through it all, Rodgers has a 6:1 TD-to-INT and a 351-yard average over his last two games. With everyone aware of the Packers' offensive struggles, Rodgers is an attractive DFS tournament play this week. The situation seems somewhat similar to two weeks ago at Carolina, where Rodgers dropped 369 yards and four touchdowns on a pass defense that's better than Minnesota's.

Rodgers' target distribution in Davante Adams' five full games this year: Adams and Randall Cobb 47; Richard Rodgers 25; Starks 21; James Jones 17; Lacy 6. ... Cobb gets the toughest draw in Green Bay's pass-catcher corps against Vikings slot CB Captain Munnerlyn, who has a top-eight coverage grade at Pro Football Focus. Cobb is a season-long WR2 play as the best receiver in a Rodgers-quarterbacked offense, but his ceiling may be capped this week. ... It might be a problem when one of your starting wide receivers gets manhandled by someone named Nevin Lawson. That was the case for Adams last week, managing 79 yards on an absurd 21 targets. Still, the fact that Adams is getting that much usage bodes well for his fantasy prospects. In Week 11, he'll do battle with 37-year-old Vikings LCB Terence Newman. Adams is a borderline fantasy WR2 based on his high-volume role. ... Jones will run routes at RCB Xavier Rhodes, who is having a miserable year. 31-year-old Jones hasn't been very good himself lately, topping 30 yards once over his last four games. Unable to get off Darius Slay's bump coverage last week, Jones is a touchdown-dependent WR3/flex option at Minnesota. ... Another touchdown-driven fantasy commodity, TE Rodgers will help you if he hits pay dirt, and hurt you if he doesn't. For what it's worth, the Vikings have yielded the 13th most fantasy points to tight ends.

Score Prediction: Packers 24, Vikings 21

San Francisco @ Seattle

The Vegas total on 49ers-Seahawks is Week 11's lowest at 40.5. Seattle is a 12.5-point home favorite over the Blaine Gabbert-quarterbacked Niners. For a team that's struggled offensively this year, the Seahawks' team total is quite aggressive at 26.5. ... The trend of San Francisco playing far better defense at home than on the road persisted before its Week 10 bye. Whereas DC Eric Mangini's unit has allowed nearly a 37-point average through four away games, the 49ers have held their five home opponents to scores of 16, 20, 20, 17, and 3. ... That may make it more impressive that Marshawn Lynch shredded the Niners at San Fran in Week 7 (27-122-1). Also showing signs of overcoming his early-season calf, hamstring, and abdomen injuries, Lynch logged his second highest snap rate (79%) of the season last week. This game sets up nicely for a reappearance of vintage BeastMode. ... Essentially a scrambling version of Teddy Bridgewater this season, Russell Wilson has one multi-touchdown game amongst nine and ranks 19th in the NFL in passing yards. Wilson's Week 11 matchup is obviously attractive on paper -- San Francisco is 31st in Football Outsiders' pass-defense DVOA -- but Wilson has devolved into a streamer only in season-long leagues and a low-odds DFS tournament gamble at best.

Wilson's target distribution over his last six games: Jimmy Graham 37; Tyler Lockett 21; Doug Baldwin 20; Fred Jackson 14; Jermaine Kearse 13; Luke Willson 9; Lynch 5. ... Graham has zero touchdowns since Week 3 while clearing 50 yards twice in that span. The 49ers held him to 2-31-0 in these teams' Week 7 meeting. San Francisco is 19th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends. ... With Patrick Peterson sticking to left corner and not shadowing last week, Baldwin exploded for year bests in targets (10), catches (7), and yards (134) and scored his third TD of the season. A rotational slot receiver before the Seahawks' Week 9 bye, Baldwin emerged from the open date logging 90% of the snaps. Baldwin has reentered WR3 discussion in season-long leagues. ... Lockett's playing time held steady (76%) after the bye week, but he stayed under 40 receiving yards for the seventh time in nine games. Lockett hasn't drawn more than five targets in any game this season. His playmaking special teams value does upgrade the outlook of Seattle's D/ST, which is by far this week's premier fantasy play at home versus Gabbert.

The 49ers' 14-point team total is the second lowest of the season. When Jimmy Clausen made his Week 3 start at CenturyLink, the Bears' team total closed at 13.5. In their last three meetings with the Seahawks, the Niners have put up point totals of 3, 7, and 13. ... Gabbert deserves credit for playing composed football in Week 9, a home game wherein San Francisco pulled a 17-16 upset over Atlanta. Generating offense will be far more difficult at Seattle, particularly with Carlos Hyde (foot) and Anquan Boldin (hamstring) still banged up. Richard Sherman's shadow coverage goose egged Torrey Smith in these clubs' Week 7 meeting, while the Seahawks have permitted just 3.65 yards per carry and three rushing TDs to running backs through nine games. ... Vance McDonald and Garrett Celek shared time at tight end against the Falcons, with Boldin inactive. Celek scored twice in the red zone, but they were his only two targets of the game, and he played less (67%) than stone-handed McDonald (81%). ... Street FA Shaun Draughn operated as San Francisco's clear lead back versus Atlanta, logging 67% of the downs and parlaying 20 touches into 96 total yards with a team-high four receptions. If Hyde is again inactive, Draughn would be a sneaky flex play for PPR owners in bye-week binds.

Score Prediction: Seahawks 27, 49ers 10

Sunday Night Football

Cincinnati @ Arizona

The game total on Bengals-Cardinals is strong at 48 points with host Arizona favored by five. The Cards' team total is 26.5. ... Carson Palmer conceded publicly this week that he views this as a #RevengeGame against Bengals owner Mike Brown, who forced Palmer to sit out much of the 2011 season before finally honoring his trade request in a deal with Oakland. Palmer, however, gets a challenging draw versus a Cincinnati team that ranks No. 9 in Football Outsiders' pass-defense DVOA, and will have to deal with both of his perimeter receivers (John Brown, Michael Floyd) either inactive or at less than 100% due to bum hamstrings. The Bengals rank sixth in the league in sacks (26) and have permitted the fifth fewest passing TDs (11) in football. Palmer has earned every-week QB1 treatment in season-long leagues, but his Week 11 ceiling is a concern. ... Albeit assisted by soft run-game matchups, Cincinnati's run defense has improved drastically since WLB Vontaze Burfict returned from PUP three games ago. The Bengals have not allowed a rushing TD during that stretch while holding Browns and Texans RBs to 107 scoreless yards on 35 carries (3.06 YPC) in Weeks 9-10. Chris Johnson has begun to slow down over the course of his age-30 campaign, averaging 3.78 yards per carry across his last four games. With Andre Ellington's playing time on the rise, Johnson is a mid-range RB2 play on Sunday night.

Particularly with Brown and Floyd hobbled, Ellington's role should continue to expand. Coach Bruce Arians has stated previously that he believes Ellington's skill set and route-running chops are good enough that Ellington could be a starting wide receiver in the league. In chronological order, Ellington's snap rates over Arizona's last three games are 29%, 33%, and 40%. Ellington totaled 98 yards and a touchdown on eight touches coming off the Cardinals' Week 9 bye and should be plugged into PPR lineups as a flex play against Cincinnati. ... The only member of Arizona's pass-catcher corps with a plus Week 11 draw would be Brown, who runs most of his routes at left corners and will do battle with burnable LCB Dre Kirkpatrick if he plays. Floyd will deal mostly with shutdown RCB Pacman Jones. Brown has not caught a pass since Week 7, however, and his hamstrings are clearly still problematic. It's hard to imagine trusting Floyd or Brown in season-long leagues. ... Larry Fitzgerald's main adversary will be savvy Bengals slot CB Leon Hall, who has PFF's No. 22 overall cornerback grade amongst 110 qualifiers. Although Fitzgerald may not have an efficient Sunday nighter, he does project as a volume monster. Targeted 15 times last week, Fitzgerald is a safe bet for double digits again in Week 11.

The Bengals travel to the desert as five-point dogs with a team total of 21.5. ... As is the case for many teams, Cincinnati's offense matches up poorly with Arizona's defense, which ranks No. 4 versus the pass in Football Outsiders' DVOA and No. 6 against the run. The Cards are capable of taking away A.J. Green with Patrick Peterson and rendering the Bengals' running game a non-factor, thereby forcing an awful lot onto Andy Dalton's plate. Historically, Dalton tends to struggle when the elements around him are less than ideal. I'd view Dalton as a fringe QB1 in season-long fantasy this week. ... Expect Jeremy Hill's struggles to continue against a Cardinals defense holding running backs to 3.67 yards per carry. This game sets up much better for Giovani Bernard, who logged a 70% snap rate in last Monday night's loss to Houston and 13 touches compared to Hill's 10. Bernard's scoring upside is always limited -- he has only two touchdowns on the season -- but Gio is worth dialing up as an RB2/flex against an Arizona defense surrendering nearly six catches per game to running backs. It would not be surprising if OC Hue Jackson committed to Bernard as the Bengals' clear-cut feature back in this game.

Dalton's target distribution since the Bengals' Week 7 bye: A.J. Green 30; Tyler Eifert 21; Marvin Jones 20; Gio 12; Mohamed Sanu 8; Hill 4. ... These are the stat lines of receivers Peterson has shadowed this season: 4-49-0 (Brandin Cooks), 0-0 (Torrey Smith), 0-0 (Kenny Britt), 5-67 (Calvin Johnson), 3-24-0 (Antonio Brown), 5-78-0 (Steve Smith Sr.), 3-26-0 (Travis Benjamin). Needless to say, Green is in for a tough time on SNF. ... Stat lines of complementary receivers in those games: 4-41-1 (Brandon Coleman), 2-16 (Anquan Boldin), 6-96-2 (Tavon Austin), 8-74 (Golden Tate), 6-137-2 (Martavis Bryant), 1-6 (Kamar Aiken), 4-32-2 (Brian Hartline). Jones can be a volatile fantasy option, but he has seen at least eight targets in three of his last five games and offers upside against flammable Cardinals No. 2 CB Jerraud Powers. ... Eifert's tough matchup is another reason to like Jones; Arizona is permitting the third fewest fantasy points in the league to tight ends. Eifert does still figure to see a healthy dose of targets with Peterson on Green.

Score Prediction: Cardinals 23, Bengals 17

Monday Night Football

Buffalo @ New England

Bills-Pats has a 48.5-point Vegas total with New England favored by seven. Despite major injury losses in recent weeks, the Pats' team total is aggressive at nearly 28 points. ... Julian Edelman (foot) and Dion Lewis (ACL) combined to average 15.9 targets per game in the season's first half. Danny Amendola is the top beneficiary after logging target totals of 11 and 7 in Edelman's two missed games last season, on snap rates of 69% and 81%. Normally about a 50% player in New England's offense, Amendola's playing time jumped to 70% when Edelman left last week's win over the Giants, while Amendola also paced the Patriots in targets (11) and catches (10). Amendola can expect a heavy Week 11 workload running slot routes at Nickell Robey, who is easily Buffalo's worst corner. It should be noted that Edelman went berserk (11-97-2) when the Patriots and Bills played in Week 2. ... Although Brandon LaFell's target projection rises post-Edelman, his MNF matchup is a bit concerning against stingy Bills RCB Stephon Gilmore. I like the Patriots' inside-the-numbers pass catchers better than their perimeter options this week. ... Rob Gronkowski's last six receiving lines against Rex Ryan's defenses: 7-113-1 (2015), 6-31-1 and 5-68 (2014), 8-114 (2013), 6-78-2 (2012), 8-113-2 (2011). Even if the Bills double team Gronkowski, he is capable of producing at a high level. The Giants constantly doubled Gronk on inside routes last Sunday, and he still emerged with a 5-113-1 receiving line on ten targets.

On the flip side, these are LeGarrette Blount's last four rushing lines against Rex: 5-0, 1-4, 4-11, and 2-4. When the Patriots visited the Bills in Week 2, they attacked with a decidedly pass-first approach designed for Brady to pepper Buffalo with quick throws. Brady recorded 61 dropbacks, while Pats RBs combined to rush just ten times. Blount is never a bad bet to hit pay dirt, but I'm skeptical he'll be a big part of the game plan this week. ... James White operated as the primary replacement for Dion Lewis in last Sunday's win over the G-Men, but still logged only 38% of the snaps and two touches. Brandon Bolden sprinkled in on 14% of the downs and touched the ball once. While this game sets up better for New England's passing-down backs to see increased work, neither White nor Bolden is a player OC Josh McDaniels seems willing to proactively feed the football to. On paper, this should be a Brady-Gronk-Amendola week.

Winners of two straight since their Week 8 bye, the Bills visit Foxboro with a sub-21-point team total. ... Tyrod Taylor has managed weekly fantasy performances of QB19 and QB22 since returning from his MCL injury. He did finish as the QB2 overall when Buffalo hosted New England in Week 2, albeit with scoring driven heavily by fourth-quarter comeback mode in a 40-32 loss. As the Vegas total on Bills-Patriots is tied for highest of Week 11, Taylor is worth a serious look for QB1 streamers. Especially if Buffalo again falls behind, this is a game where OC Greg Roman figures to employ Taylor's playmaking abilities more aggressively than he did the past two weeks. ... The run game remains Buffalo's offensive foundation, featuring a one-two punch of LeSean McCoy and dynamic rookie Karlos Williams. McCoy has played his best football of the season in two games since the bye, parlaying 35 runs into 224 yards (6.40 YPC) and a touchdown while catching seven passes. He dropped 116 total yards on New England in Week 2 and should be viewed as a high-floor RB1 play. ... Williams' touch totals are 6, 6, 12, 9, and 8 in the five games where both he and McCoy have been active. Although Williams has somewhat flukily found a way to score a touchdown in each of the five, the likelihood of that unsustainable scoring trend regressing sharply down the stretch gives Williams a worrisome weekly floor.

Taylor's target distribution in his five games played with Sammy Watkins this season: Watkins 28; Charles Clay 23; McCoy and Robert Woods 18; Chris Hogan 5; Williams 4. ... Watkins went 6-60-1 when Buffalo hosted New England in Week 2, getting the bulk of his production against since-released Bradley Fletcher. Red-hot Patriots No. 1 corner Malcolm Butler will pose a much tougher matchup for Watkins on Monday night, but Watkins' big-play ability keeps him in the WR2 conversation. ... Clay's target totals with Watkins active are 1, 7, 5, 4, and 6. Allowing the ninth fewest fantasy points in the league to tight ends, the Pats held Clay to 3-19-1 in the Week 2 meeting. ... No. 2 wideout Woods' target counts are 1, 5, 3, 2, and 7 with Watkins playing. A low-volume possession receiver on a run-first team, Woods is only worth fantasy-start consideration in the most ideal matchups. He's a low-floor dart throw at best this week.

Score Prediction: Patriots 27, Bills 17