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Silva's MNF Matchups

Nick Mensio dives into the matchups and advises which players to start and sit Week 12

Monday Night Doubleheader

7:10PM ET Game

Philadelphia @ Atlanta

At 55.5 points, Philly-Falcons has Week 1's highest Vegas total with a three-point spread. This is a game to target aggressively in DFS and re-draft lineup decisions. The 2014 Eagles led the NFL in offensive plays -- creating extra opportunity for touches, yards, and scoring -- while Atlanta's defense remains extremely talent deficient under new coach Dan Quinn. ... Sam Bradford is priced affordably on daily sites and should be locked into season-long lineups, even if he was drafted as a QB2. Eagles quarterbacks have combined for 64 TDs the last two seasons, while last year's collective production of Nick Foles and Mark Sanchez amounted to the overall fantasy QB8. In a plus matchup with a high expected point total, Bradford is a top-ten quarterback play with a top-three ceiling. Bradford finished the preseason 13-of-15 passing (86.7%) for 156 yards (10.4 YPA), three touchdowns, no turnovers, and no sacks taken. ... Daily sites also seem to be sleeping on Jordan Matthews, who dominated summer joint practices with the Ravens and looked a cut above his competition in preseason games (7-115). Last year, the ultra-efficient Matthews ranked 24th in fantasy receiver scoring despite ranking 41st in targets and only playing 64.9% of the Eagles' offensive snaps. This year, Matthews is a full-time player and projects as a high-volume weapon in a mouth-watering matchup with penciled-in Falcons slot CB Robert Alford, a notorious gambler who last year graded 87th among 108 qualifying corners in PFF's coverage grades. It's notable that Alford stands 5'10/188 to Matthews' beastly 6'3/212. Atlanta's slot corner alternative is Phillip Adams (5'11/192), a 27-year-old on his sixth NFL team.

I'm in wait-and-see mode with the rest of Philly's wideouts. While Matthews is locked in as the Eagles' inside receiver, Josh Huff, Riley Cooper, and Nelson Agholor are vying for snaps outside. Agholor is an exciting talent -- especially in terms of run after catch -- but his only preseason start came in the exhibition finale. Huff and Cooper each made three preseason starts. "Preseason start" stats aren't necessarily helpful, but it's possible the trio will work in a three-way committee behind Matthews. I tend to believe Agholor could spend much of his rookie season as a rotational receiver, like Matthews did last year. The Eagles' perimeter wideouts are also more likely to deal with Falcons top CB Desmond Trufant, who plays outside. ... Zach Ertz is expected to be a game-time decision after returning to limited practices following groin surgery. Starter Brent Celek is a blocker. Ertz could become a fantasy option down the road, but he was a sub-package tight end even at full health last year. For the foreseeable future, Ertz is just a talented TE2. Celek has no fantasy value. ... Quinn inherited a Falcons team that last year ranked 30th in run-defense DVOA and still has poor personnel, especially following SAM/"Otto" linebacker Brooks Reed's groin surgery. I can tell you that Bradford and Matthews will be chalky Week 1 DFS plays. I'm betting not nearly as many folks will be firing up DeMarco Murray, in part because they'll be on Bradford and J-Matt, and in part over fears of Murray "losing" carries and catches to Ryan Mathews and Darren Sproles. ... The exact roles of Mathews and Sproles are yet to be defined. Eagles beat writers expect both to play meaningful snaps, but there's little doubt Murray is the clear top dog, and the heavy favorite for goal-line work. Mathews is a dice-roll flex option without any concrete data to back up starting him. The same goes for Sproles in PPR leagues. Keep in mind Sproles averaged just 5.5 touches over last year's final 13 games.

Although new Falcons OC Kyle Shanahan has the reputation of a running-game guru, a better description would be just a good coach. In all of his past stops, Shanahan has prioritized feeding his best players relentlessly and building his offenses around their strengths while minimizing weaknesses. Shanahan's run games have generally been strong, but he also coordinated a 2009 Texans offense in which Matt Schaub led the NFL in pass attempts and Andre Johnson led the NFL in targets on a team that lacked run-game cohesion. Atlanta's offensive makeup suggests best-player Julio Jones is a legitimate candidate to lead the league in targets. Roddy White (knee, elbow) is fading badly going on age 34, while the tight ends are banged-up retread Jacob Tamme (back) and 2014 flop Levine Toilolo, best known in fantasy circles as "ToiLOLo." (h/t @Chet_G.) Whereas Julio predominately lined up on the left side of the formation under ex-OC Dirk Koetter, Shanahan intends to move Jones around in an effort to create mismatches and funnel him the rock. Now facing an Eagles defense that has stopped the run in elite fashion under DC Billy Davis and a fast-paced Eagles offense that forces its opponents to run more snaps, Julio is my favorite top-shelf WR1 play in Week 1. The potential shadow coverage of Byron Maxwell is hardly a concern. ... While the limitations of his supporting cast beyond Julio are a season-long worry, Matt Ryan is another recommended Week 1 play who should benefit from a ton of volume in a game with a shootout-scoring projection. Last season, enemy quarterbacks notched the sixth most pass attempts in the league against Philly, and threw the fourth most touchdown passes. It wouldn't surprise me if Ryan were a bit underowned in DFS tournaments this week with fantasy players seemingly focused elsewhere at quarterback.

Critical to the aforementioned cohesion in Shanahan's zone-run game is O-Line continuity, where the 2015 Falcons fall painfully short. Atlanta traded for new LG Andy Levitre on Sept. 4, before cutting first-team C Joe Hawley on Sept. 7. One game-film aficionado I trust called Atlanta's front five "the worst OL I've watched in the last couple of years" after studying their preseason tape. And the Falcons are concerned enough with their tailback corps that they've reportedly shown interest in free agent Montee Ball. Tevin Coleman has been promoted onto the first string, but also missed a ton of camp and may be eased into lead-back work. Devonta Freeman recently admitted his hamstring is still not 100%, and therefore he is not a fantasy option. The Eagles' defense has ranked fourth and fourth in the NFL in yards per carry allowed the past two seasons under Davis, and there is reason to believe Philly could be even stouter this year after trading for ILB Kiko Alonso. A speedy boom-or-bust runner, Coleman is easily the best Week 1 bet for touches, though Monday night's daunting matchup makes him a dicey RB2. It can't help that, historically, zone-run games like Shanahan's have tended to struggle against 3-4 defenses like Philly's. ... After back-to-back injury-plagued seasons, Roddy White reported to camp with a balky knee that needs frequent draining before undergoing August 23 elbow surgery. While White's matchup seems favorable against an Eagles team still deciding between Nolan Carroll, E.J. Biggers, and rookie Eric Rowe at Nos. 2 and 3 cornerback, I'd struggle to trust Roddy as more than a shaky WR3. ... Don't be surprised if Falcons third receiver Leonard Hankerson logs heavy Week 1 snaps and even outperforms White in the box score. Hankerson was a staple with the starting offense all camp and Atlanta's tight end shortage will likely translate to a dependency on three-wideout sets. "HankTime" is a Week 1 fantasy sleeper.

Score Prediction: Eagles 30, Falcons 27

10:20PM ET Game

Minnesota @ San Francisco

The backend of Monday night's doubleheader projects as a low-scoring slugfest. 6-of-16 Week 1 games have Vegas totals below 42 points. At 41.5, Vikings-49ers is among them with Minnesota favored by 2.5. The top play is Adrian Peterson taking on a San Francisco defense that's lost DEs Justin Smith and Ray McDonald, ILBs Patrick Willis and Chris Borland, OLBs Aldon Smith and Dan Skuta, and respected DC Vic Fangio since the beginning of last year. Minnesota's low total (22 points) is more of a concern for the passing game than Peterson, who is a top-shelf RB1 and potential DFS Monday Night Hammer. On the other hand, one reason to fade Peterson in DFS would be the critical offensive line losses of RT Phil Loadholt (Achilles') and C John Sullivan (back surgery). Loadholt and Sullivan were arguably the Vikings' two best linemen last year. ... Teddy Bridgewater caught fire down the stretch of his rookie season, compiling a 10:6 TD-to-INT ratio, 68.9% completion rate, and 98.1 QB rating over the Vikings' final six games. Bridgewater looked even better this August and made perhaps the best throw of the NFL preseason on a 39-yard bucket bomb to Mike Wallace in Minnesota's regular season dress rehearsal. Still, the 2015 Vikings will likely be a run-focused team, and this game's low-scoring projection has me off Bridgewater in DFS and most season-long leagues. I'm viewing him as a high-end QB2 to begin the year.

Charles Johnson and Wallace are both quality WR3 plays taking on the 49ers, who will start Tramaine Brock at left cornerback, and either Keith Reaser or Kenneth Acker at RCB. Brock was injured almost all of last season, logging only 80 plays. He also showed up on Thursday's injury report as "limited" with a hamstring tweak. Reaser and Acker were both late-round draft picks in 2014, and neither has played an NFL snap. The nickel back will either be the loser of the Reaser-Acker battle or Jimmie Ward, who got flamed in coverage all last year. This is a good matchup for Johnson and Wallace, but neither stands out as an especially strong fantasy start with no target pecking order established yet in what projects as a low-scoring game. ... Beyond Peterson, the best bet for a touchdown on Minnesota's side is probably 6-foot-6, 259-pound TE Kyle Rudolph, who has been injury ravaged in the past but made it through camp at 100%. Like most low-end TE1s, Rudolph will pay week-to-week dividends whenever he hits pay dirt. He probably won't rack up enough catches and yards to help you when he doesn't score.

Underdogs at home, the 49ers' Week 1 point total is 19.5. You'd be hard pressed to get excited about any San Francisco players as fantasy starts. ... New lead back Carlos Hyde did have an impressive preseason, flashing tackle-breaking power and quick feet for a 6-foot, 230-pound runner. The 49ers' offensive line is a huge concern, however. Having lost LG Mike Iupati (free agency), C Daniel Kilgore (leg/ankle), and RT Anthony Davis ("retirement") since last season, the Niners spent camp shuffling bodies around the front five and spurning continuity, particularly on the right side of the line. At center through right tackle, the 49ers will turn to Marcus Martin, Jordan Devey, and Erik Pears, all three of whom drew abysmal 2014 PFF blocking grades. Still, the matchup is good enough for Hyde to be fired up as a mid-range RB2. A Vikings unit that finished last year 25th in Football Outsiders' run-defense DVOA returns largely intact. ... The Vikings were better in pass-defense DVOA (19th) last season and will likely improve in year two of coach Mike Zimmer's system with a host of young players in the front and backends. Minnesota's secondary matches up well with San Francisco's receivers, and Zimmer's exotic blitzes figure to cause Colin Kaepernick fits. Kaepernick has never faced a Zimmer defense before as an NFL starter. A quarterback who's declined rapidly since his breakout 2012 season, Kaepernick absorbed an NFC-high 52 sacks last year behind what was generally regarded as one of the NFL's best lines, while Kap's field reading and touch passing have remained deficient.

Reggie Bush played only three snaps this preseason. While he could become a PPR factor as the season moves along, I'd like to see Bush's role established in an actual game before entertaining him as a potential flex play. ... Expect Vikings CB Xavier Rhodes to spend 2015 shadowing enemy No. 1 receivers. Rhodes emerged as a legitimate shutdown corner last season, earning a top-six PFF coverage grade from Week 4 on. At 6'2/210 with nearly 34-inch arms, Rhodes possesses the size, length, and physicality to limit Anquan Boldin's box-score production. Boldin is still a virtual lock to lead the 49ers in targets, but he's best viewed as a low-ceiling WR3 play in Week 1. ... With first-round pick Trae Waynes coming along slowly, 37-year-old Terence Newman will open as Minnesota's No. 2 cornerback, with Captain Munnerlyn in the slot. Torrey Smith has a good matchup on paper, but Newman is a savvy veteran who's aware of his own limitations, which has allowed Newman to stay relatively effective so late in his career. As a low-volume vertical stretcher, look for Smith to remain a boom-or-bust weekly option in his new digs. ... Vernon Davis fell off a cliff last season and did nothing this August, failing to see a single target among 39 preseason snaps. Last year's Zimmer defense yielded the eighth fewest fantasy points to tight ends. Fantasy owners streaming Davis in Week 1 should be holding their breath.

Score Prediction: Vikings 20, 49ers 17