Silva's July Top 150

Evan Silva
July 7, 2013
Silva's July Top 150
See where Patriots RB Shane Vereen lands as Evan Silva unveils his July Top 150 fantasy football rankings

Training camps open in just over two weeks. I've been rolling out these Top 150 Rankings every month since April's NFL draft, and they will continue into early September. If you're new to my rankings, here are three things to consider before diving in:

1. Although there are numerous references to points-per-reception (PPR) leagues in the post-player one-liners, these rankings are constructed with standard leagues in mind. I devalue quarterbacks because the position is incredibly deep following the 2012 rookie explosion and return of Peyton Manning. Value-based-drafting (VBD) principles are weighted in. It's basic supply and demand.

2. Jimmy Graham is No. 2 overall. That doesn't necessarily mean I advocate taking Graham with the No. 2 pick; I just gave him the second highest player "grade," because in head-to-head leagues he gives owners the single-biggest week-to-week edge at any position. Become familiar with Average Draft Position (ADP), which is a featured item in the 2013 Rotoworld Draft Guide. Getting a feel for where players typically are drafted will make you a smarter fantasy owner. Once you see Graham's ADP, you'll have a better understanding of where to draft him and still get value.

3. Patriots player rankings may seem a bit unorthodox. Not even accounting for Wes Welker -- whose role will be filled directly by Danny Amendola -- New England's annually high-octane offense must replace 165 receptions, 2,146 total yards, and 16 combined touchdowns from Aaron Hernandez, Brandon Lloyd, and Danny Woodhead without big-money free-agent additions at the latter three's positions. I see them looking to Amendola, Shane Vereen, and to a lesser extent locked-in stars Stevan Ridley and Rob Gronkowski to make up most of the difference. Vereen, Amendola, Ridley, and Gronk may seem to be ranked too high at surface level, but I don't think they are. This is a team quarterbacked by a first-ballot Hall of Famer behind arguably the NFL's best offensive line. It's fielded a top-five offense in five of the past six seasons, and led the league in 2012 offensive snaps. Players in this offense are inevitably going to have big, big years.

First Round

1. Adrian Peterson -- The premier offensive skill-position player in football.
2. Jimmy Graham -- Will give owners colossal head-to-head weekly edge.
3. Doug Martin -- Last year's No. 2 fantasy RB gets both stud guards back.
4. Jamaal Charles -- Could make a run for the No. 1 spot in PPR leagues.
5. C.J. Spiller -- Spiller will be leaned on heavily by run-first Doug Marrone.
6. Marshawn Lynch -- Looks more and more like he'll avoid DUI discipline.
7. Trent Richardson -- The foundation of Cleveland's power-running attack.
8. Calvin Johnson -- Best WR of era plays in NFL's pass-happiest offense.
9. Arian Foster -- Piling-up workloads and pre-camp injury are concerns.
10. LeSean McCoy -- Will Chip Kelly's offense work in NFL? If so, look out.
11. Alfred Morris -- Doesn't play in passing game, but ideal rushing volume.
12. Stevan Ridley -- Could be new centerpiece of revamped Patriots offense.

Second Round

13. Matt Forte -- New Chicago offense will force feed Forte in passing game.
14. Ray Rice -- Bernard Pierce factor is a serious threat to Rice's carries.
15. Steven Jackson -- Sneaky candidate to lead league in rushing scores.
16. Brandon Marshall -- Bears will throw even more under Marc Trestman.
17. Dez Bryant -- Mega-talent has matured, just hitting his stride at age 24.
18. A.J. Green -- Target monster could push Megatron with better QB play.
19. Julio Jones -- As Tony (37) and Roddy (32) get older, Julio gets better.
20. Larry Fitzgerald -- Cinch to bounce back with a competent quarterback.
21. Frank Gore -- Ageless back plays behind league's top run-blocking line.
22. Chris Johnson -- Weekly headache but should benefit from OL upgrades.
23. Andre Johnson -- Top-nine fantasy receiver in four of the last five years.
24. Reggie Bush -- Will be touch machine; should lead all RBs in catches.

Third Round

25. Demaryius Thomas -- Welker will keep Bay-Bay singled up on outside.
26. Rob Gronkowski -- Huge difference maker even if he misses a few games.
27. Darren McFadden -- Major annual injury risk, but upside remains intact.
28. Lamar Miller -- Primed for fantasy breakout. My tape breakdown is here.
29. Drew Brees -- The reigning No. 1 fantasy QB gets his head coach back.
30. Aaron Rodgers -- Improved run game could slightly cap Rodgers' upside.
31. Cam Newton -- No. 5 fantasy QB as a rookie and No. 4 as a sophomore.
32. Dwayne Bowe -- Excitingly high ceiling under pass-obsessed Andy Reid.
33. Darren Sproles -- One of fantasy's most consistent week-to-week scorers.
34. DeMarco Murray -- Suspect OL and lacks durability; will be unreliable RB2.
35. David Wilson -- Boom-or-bust runner and fantasy pick; explained why here.
36. Randall Cobb -- Aaron Rodgers wants Cobb to catch 100 passes this year.

Fourth Round

37. Percy Harvin -- His usage may dip in Seattle, but playmaker and ideal WR2.
38. Danny Amendola -- Health is lone worry; will be WR1 whenever he dresses.
39. Vincent Jackson -- TD total (8) can rise, but QB doesn't inspire confidence.
40. Jordy Nelson -- On pace for 91/1,216/11 line in '12 before hard-luck injuries.
41. Marques Colston -- Arguably fantasy's most consistent year-to-year wideout.
42. Maurice Jones-Drew -- Injured/overworked/bad team. Let someone else draft.
43. Victor Cruz -- Contract is no longer a concern; big-play and volume receiver.
44. Antonio Brown -- Sleeper to lead NFL in receptions as Big Ben's clear No. 1.
45. Roddy White -- Old reliable going on age 32; you know what you're getting.
46. Reggie Wayne -- Another old reliable, but coming off late-season decline.
47. Chris Ivory -- Has RB1 potential if he stays healthy, but little history of that.
48. Peyton Manning -- Still can't get late-game AFCCG ducks out of my head.

Fifth Round

49. Montee Ball -- Late third-round ADP is too rich.
50. Le'Veon Bell -- Can be volume workhorse RB.
51. Eddie Lacy -- Highest TD ceiling of the rookies.
52. Steve Smith -- Due for TD regression; 4 in '12.
53. Mike Wallace -- Suspect scheme fit with Miami.
54. Matthew Stafford -- All but a shoo-in for bounce-back year. Read more here.
55. Tom Brady -- Losses knock him down a few pegs, but still a mid-range QB1.
56. Shane Vereen -- Will explode if he earns 7-12 carries + 4-6 catches a game.
57. Pierre Garcon -- I might put him in the third round if I knew he'd stay healthy.
58. Greg Jennings -- Will be heavily targeted at Harvin's old Z receiver position.
59. Giovani Bernard -- Talented enough to be the Martin to Green-Ellis' Blount.
60. Tony Gonzalez -- Top-five fantasy tight end in six of the past seven seasons.

Sixth Round

61. Vernon Davis -- Post-Crabtree, has shot to be Niners go-to guy in pass game.
62. Hakeem Nicks -- Great talent, but impossible to trust Nicks to stay healthy.
63. Ahmad Bradshaw -- I explain why Bradshaw will be Colts lead RB at this link.
64. Eric Decker -- Won't score like last year (No. 8 WR), but remains quality WR2.
65. Jason Witten -- Consistent, high-volume TE with annually low scoring ceiling.
66. Torrey Smith -- Can break out big if route tree diversifies; just not sure it will.
67. Wes Welker -- Overvalued at fourth-round ADP; usage will decline in Denver.
68. Andrew Luck -- My favorite mid-round QB target; efficiency will spike this year.
69. James Jones -- 14 TDs not repeatable, but now an every-down wide receiver.
70. Ryan Mathews -- Eliminated from passing downs and OL a major weakness.
71. DeSean Jackson -- Boom-bust WR with run-first offense working against him.
72. Robert Griffin III -- Moving up my board as positive knee reports continue.

Seventh Round

73. Russell Wilson -- Seahawks design gives him less upside than Stafford, Luck.
74. Cecil Shorts -- Target hog with Blackmon suspended and coming off surgery.
75. Josh Gordon -- Two-game suspension will make Gordon a value pick in drafts.
76. Matt Ryan -- We know what Ryan is at this point, mid-range to low-end QB1.
77. T.Y. Hilton -- Hilton will shoot up my rankings if it's clear he's beat out DHB.
78. Dennis Pitta -- If receiver corps stays as is, Pitta will lead Ravens in catches.
79. Colin Kaepernick -- Quarterback in run-first offense lost his best receiver.
80. Tavon Austin -- Kendall Wright's rookie stats (64/626/4) should be his floor.
81. Rashard Mendenhall -- Cardinals will struggle mightily to run the ball; avoid.
82. Isaiah Pead -- Easily offers highest ceiling in STL running back competition.
83. Mark Ingram -- Solid RB2/flex potential as Payton works to restore run game.
84. Kenny Britt -- Consistency elusive, but should have a number of big weeks.

Eighth Round

85. Tony Romo -- Last of the keeps-you-competitive QB1s; eighth-round ADP.
86. Stevie Johnson -- Philosophical change makes him risky as more than WR3.
87. Ryan Broyles -- He'll catch 80-plus passes if he stays healthy for 16 games.
88. Ben Tate -- Multiple Arian Foster red flags increase Tate's fantasy appeal.
89. Danario Alexander -- Suspect fit for Chargers new quick-hitting pass game.
90. Miles Austin -- Passable WR3 but little chance to give you a fantasy edge.
91. Greg Olsen -- Returning No. 6 fantasy TE; still Panthers No. 2 receiver.
92. Ben Roethlisberger -- Best of the QB2s would be QB1 with better weapons.
93. Andre Brown -- Wilson is far more talented, but Brown will stay involved.
94. Jonathan Stewart -- Uncertain for camp after double offseason ankle surgery.
95. Bryce Brown -- Rare size-speed combo with chance at standalone flex value.
96. Jordan Cameron -- Robbery at current 14th-round ADP; Top 5-7 TE upside.

Ninth Round

97. Bernard Pierce -- I love his violent running mentality. RB1 if Rice goes down.
98. DeAngelo Williams -- Stock quietly rising with Stewart's health uncertain.
99. Michael Floyd -- In Arians offense, one of fantasy's top breakout candidates.
100. Daryl Richardson -- Has big-play ability, but more a change-of-pace back.
101. BenJarvus Green-Ellis -- Far less talented half of timeshare with Gio Bernard.
102. Jacquizz Rodgers -- S-Jax leads all active RBs in career carries -- by 484.
103. Zac Stacy -- Not as talented as Pead, but still nice mid- to late-round flier.
104. Vincent Brown -- Candidate to lead SD in catches if he beats out Floyd.
105. Mike Williams -- TD-dependent wideout hurts you when he doesn't score.
106. Anquan Boldin -- Prime candidate to be overdrafted on perceived situation.
107. Emmanuel Sanders -- Sleeper for 75+ catches in depleted passing offense.
108. Denarius Moore -- Like his talent, but hate his fit with noodle-armed Flynn.

Tenth Round

109. Rueben Randle -- Will break out if Nicks gets hurt.
110. Darrius Heyward-Bey -- Ran ahead of Hilton at OTAs.
111. Kendall Wright -- Many mouths to feed/poor QB.
112. Jermichael Finley -- Just not a good football player.
113. Jared Cook -- Low-volume, big play-dependent TE.
114. Kyle Rudolph -- Rudolph is being overvalued at current eight-round ADP.
115. Martellus Bennett -- Love his game, but Trestman has unkind TE history.
116. Jay Cutler -- Great QB2. Will likely set a career high in pass attempts.
117. Eli Manning -- Look for Giants to become more run-focused team in '13.
118. Joe Flacco -- Solid QB2 has 18:2 TD-to-INT ratio over last eight games.
119. Michael Vick -- Boom-or-bust QB2 trying to hold off Nick Foles to start.
120. Ryan Williams -- Solid bench stash is now healthy and plenty talented.

Eleventh Round

121. Joique Bell -- Mark this down: He'll beat out Leshoure to back up Bush.
122. Jeremy Maclin -- Hard to get excited about Maclin in run-heavy offense.
123. Lance Moore -- Healthy Sproles, Graham will curb his 2013 production.
124. Jeremy Kerley -- Beneficiary of "someone has to catch the passes" rule.
125. DeAndre Hopkins -- Nuk and Owen Daniels will hurt each other's stats.
126. Chris Givens -- The shot-play outside receiver in Rams new-look offense.
127. Justin Blackmon -- Four-game suspension; possible WR3 upon return.
128. Knowshon Moreno -- Better bet than Hillman if Ball doesn't run with job.
129. Sidney Rice -- Last year's stats (50/748/7) are ceiling with Harvin there.
130. Alshon Jeffery -- Long shot for breakout in Trestman's style of offense.
131. Sam Bradford -- Will play with best supporting cast of his NFL career.
132. Carson Palmer -- OL is the worry; will throw a LOT and has Fitzgerald.

Twelfth Round

133. Josh Freeman -- Wildly inconsistent QB2 with diminishing job security.
134. Vick Ballard -- Needs Bradshaw injury to reacquire fantasy start-ability.
135. Aaron Dobson -- Just a flier pick, but plenty of opportunity and upside.
136. Mike Goodson -- Very talented; Chris Ivory hardly a picture of durability.
137. Dwayne Allen -- If you're into TE2s, he's a great one with undrafted ADP.
138. Ronnie Hillman -- Buzz likely will die down once contact work begins.
139. Fred Jackson -- Hard to take seriously at 32 after double knee injuries.
140. Brian Quick -- Great sleeper if he beats out Austin Pettis at X receiver.
141. Cordarrelle Patterson -- See Quick and sub Pettis for Jerome Simpson.
142. Johnathan Franklin -- Not as good a runner as Lacy, but also not far off.
143. Brandon Myers -- Eli Manning has always been a tight end-friendly QB.
144. Michael Bush -- Always a rock-solid RB2 when Matt Forte misses time.

Thirteenth Round

145. Antonio Gates -- 33, will be hard pressed to rediscover top-10 TE stats.
146. Brandon Pettigrew -- Has never finished above 11th among fantasy TEs.
147. Robert Turbin -- Still slight favorite to be Marshawn Lynch's top backup.
148. Owen Daniels -- DeAndre Hopkins will suck the life from Daniels' value.
149. Danny Woodhead -- Passing-down back on team that'll play from behind.
150. Christine Michael -- More talented than Turbin; keep a close eye on him.

Left Out: Ryan Tannehill, Matt Schaub, Philip Rivers, Andy Dalton, Brandon Weeden, Alex Smith, Jake Locker; Mikel Leshoure, Shonn Greene, Kendall Hunter, LaMichael James, Roy Helu, Pierre Thomas, Evan Royster; Brian Hartline, Nate Washington, Rod Streater, Stephen Hill, A.J. Jenkins, Andre Roberts, Nate Burleson, Greg Little, Mohamed Sanu, Joe Morgan, Julian Edelman, Dexter McCluster, Brandon LaFell, Santonio Holmes; Rob Housler, Heath Miller, Coby Fleener, Dustin Keller, James Casey, Jermaine Gresham, Fred Davis, Tyler Eifert, Jake Ballard.