An unforgettable 2013 fantasy season went in the books one month ago. The annual coaching carousel ensued, and incoming rookie analysis will follow. While we can't yet include rookies in these post-season fantasy rankings, we do know the identities of the NFL's seven new head coaches. We have preliminary information on the new faces and their offensive philosophies, and can begin contemplating the 2014 impact.
A few points to consider before reading these rankings: Between now and August, many players will move up or down based on unforeseen factors. Injuries, beat writer reports, arrests, and offseason transactions. Receivers and elite tight ends are creeping up my Value-Based board. I strongly believe one of the keys to fantasy title procurement is ownership of a top-four tight end, because production falls off precipitously behind them. Wide receivers look deep on the surface, but securing week-to-week difference makers is critical, even if it may seem tempting to *wait* on the position. The running back field is top heavy and dicier than ever.
1. Adrian Peterson -- Although LeSean McCoy and Jamaal Charles both outscored him in 2013, Peterson remains the premier runner of our generation and will be an excellent bounce-back bet in 2014. Despite missing two games and playing several others at less than 100 percent, All Day registered a 279-1,266-4.5-10 rushing line and will continue to be the Vikings' offensive backbone under defensive-minded new coach Mike Zimmer.
2. LeSean McCoy -- The NFL's 2013 rushing leader with 1,607 yards -- 268 more than runner-up Matt Forte -- McCoy proved an ideal fit for rookie coach Chip Kelly's innovative offense, combining picture-perfect vision with explosion through the hole and wicked lateral moves in the open field. Still only 25 years old, a strong case could be made for "Shady" as fantasy's No. 1 overall pick.
3. Jamaal Charles -- Another fantastic schematic match for first-year Chiefs coach Andy Reid's ball-control, tailback-centric offense, Charles set statistical career highs across the board en route to a No. 1 overall fantasy finish. He was NFL's only running back to lead his team in targets, catches, and receiving yards. Charles is the third player easy to argue as next season's top pick.
4. Marshawn Lynch -- Lynch is Nos. 5, 4, and 4 in fantasy running back points across 2011-2013. He defines consistency. Including playoffs, Lynch will enter the 2014 season at age 28 with 987 carries and counting over his last three years, an average of over 329 per season. 2014 Lynch drafters would be smart to closely monitor the position battle behind him between Robert Turbin and 2013 second-round pick Christine Michael. Lynch has absorbed an unruly amount of contact.
5. Matt Forte -- No. 2 in the NFL in 2013 rushing behind only McCoy, Forte also finished third among running backs in receptions (74) and fourth in receiving yards (592). He was an all-purpose workhorse under rookie coach Marc Trestman, clearing 95-plus total yards and/or scoring a touchdown in 13-of-16 games. Forte also improved noticeably as a short-yardage/goal-line runner. The Bears are going to sever ties with overpaid 30-year-old backup Michael Bush.
6. Jimmy Graham -- The epitome of a weekly difference maker, Graham tilts scoring at fantasy's thinnest position as Drew Brees' No. 1 option in a pass-heavy offense. Although Graham's rookie deal is up, GM Mickey Loomis has made it clear he isn't going anywhere. With Rob Gronkowski coming off multiple knee ligament tears, Graham will be a shoo-in 2014 first-round fantasy pick.
7. Eddie Lacy -- Lacy was a chin-checking hammer back in his first season, earning Offensive Rookie of the Year after putting Green Bay's offense on his back for long stretches. And Lacy did it without the presence of Aaron Rodgers (collarbone) for 7-of-16 games. Like Jerome Bettis in his prime, Lacy is a high-volume, high-scoring sustainer with plus passing-game chops. Lacy is already an established every-down back, and his fantasy outlook is only going to get better.
8. Calvin Johnson -- Only Adrian Peterson has an argument against Megatron as the NFL's premier athletic freak among skill-position players. Johnson has finished first, first, and third in wideout scoring the past three seasons, and wideouts tend to age better than most positions. Megatron and Matthew Stafford could both benefit from Detroit’s offensive-minded new coach, Jim Caldwell.
9. Peyton Manning -- Expecting Manning to repeat the greatest statistical quarterback season of all time at age 38 would be too bold, but betting on him to keep playing at an elite, difference-making level with an elite supporting cast in 2014 isn't. It's also worth noting Manning only had All-Pro LT Ryan Clady for two starts this season. He is likely to lose free agent Eric Decker, but Demaryius Thomas, Julius Thomas, and Wes Welker all return.
10. Demaryius Thomas -- Still only 26, Thomas has overcome early-career injury problems to post back-to-back seasons of 90-plus catches, over 1,400 yards, and double-digit touchdowns. If Calvin Johnson is a 100 out of 100, I'd set Demaryius around 96. Peyton Manning's loss of late-career arm strength has actually helped Thomas, who is the NFL's premier run-after-catch and screen-pass receiver. Including playoffs, Demaryius has 100-plus yards and/or a touchdown in 24 of his last 32 games. Megatron has 22 games of 100-plus yards and/or a score over his last 32.
11. Doug Martin -- Martin struggled to find running room (3.59 YPC) before suffering a season-ending Week 7 labrum tear in his shoulder, but remains the foundation of Tampa Bay's offense with three-down tools and a bowling-ball body capable of absorbing much punishment. New Bucs coach Lovie Smith has a history of ball-control, run-heavy teams, overseeing RB1 fantasy finishes by Thomas Jones and Matt Forte in Chicago. Lovie and new OC Jeff Tedford will pound the rock.
12. Dez Bryant -- Dez has registered 90-plus catches, 1,200-plus yards, and a dozen or more touchdowns in back-to-back seasons, and the arrow continues to point up on a receiver who won't turn 26 until next November. Despite a number of aches and pains along the way, Bryant has played in 46 consecutive games. The return of coach Jason Garrett and pursuit of aggressive ex-Lions OC Scott Linehan ensure Dallas will remain a pass-first team in 2014. That's good news for their top pass catcher.
13. Arian Foster -- Rode directly into the ground by outgoing run-first minds Gary Kubiak and Rick Dennison on a league-high 1,115 touches from 2010-2012, Foster's body finally gave out in 2013, missing the entire offseason with calf and back injuries before undergoing year-ending surgery to repair the latter ailment in November. Foster will obviously be a high-risk 2014 fantasy investment, but his versatility projects smoothly into new coach Bill O'Brien's more wide-open scheme, and Foster should have one or two solid years left in the tank. He'll turn 28 before next season.
14. Jordy Nelson -- Considered a product of Aaron Rodgers in some circles before the season, Jordy confirmed himself a top-eight NFL wideout by setting career highs in catches (85) and yards (1,314) despite trudging through a Matt Flynn-Scott Tolzien-Seneca Wallace carousel for 7-of-16 games. The surefire sign of an elite receiver is the ability to win at all three levels, and Jordy does that. With free agents Jermichael Finley and James Jones potentially both out of the picture, and Rodgers back healthy in 2014, the sky will be the limit for Green Bay's go-to guy.
15. Julio Jones -- Emerging as far and away Atlanta's top offensive weapon in 2013, Julio was on pace for an unruly 132 catches and 1,856 yards through five games before re-fracturing a foot he originally broke in 2011. The injury is a concern, but the Falcons expect Jones to be healthy long before training camp. Barring unforeseen setbacks, he'll be a locked-in second-round fantasy pick.
16. A.J. Green -- Green is just as consistent and talented as the likes of Demaryius, Dez, Jordy, and Julio, but his weekly upside falls a hair below those four due to quarterback limitations. New OC Hue Jackson also plans to scale back Cincinnati's passing-game volume, targeting a more balanced plan of attack. Green remains the featured player, but his targets may take a small hit.
17. Josh Gordon -- A souped-up Andre Johnson who'll be just 23 next season, Gordon's talent and 2013 production are undeniable. I'm still erring on the side of caution with his January ranking, as quarterback remains a big concern in Cleveland and losing vertical-minded OC Norv Turner can't help. Gordon has a history of off-field immaturity and is one strike from a one-year suspension. He could still end up with a top-14 projection if we get answers to some lingering questions by the fall.
18. Julius Thomas -- To put Thomas' breakout in perspective, he'd played all of 50 career snaps before unloading 12 touchdowns on the league despite missing two games. Only 25, Thomas is one of four true difference makers at fantasy's weakest position, and the former basketball player will keep getting better. Peyton Manning actively, noticeably eyeballs Thomas in the red zone. Look for big improvements on Thomas' 2014 catch and yardage totals with Eric Decker likely leaving.
19. Brandon Marshall -- Partner-in-crime Alshon Jeffery is coming, but he's not quite there yet. An outstanding fit for Marc Trestman's offense as a run-after-catch beast that Jay Cutler is willing to target relentlessly even when "covered," Marshall enters a contract year in 2014. A top-five fantasy wideout in each of his two years in Chicago, Marshall will be a "safe" second-round pick.
20. DeMarco Murray -- Murray's 5.17 YPC average led all 2013 rushers among backs with at least 200 attempts. Although his injury history and Dallas' pass-first playcalling can be argued against him, the Cowboys are clearly committed to Murray as an every-down back. He's a low-end RB1.
21. Zac Stacy -- Stacy shook off a slow August to take over as St. Louis' starting tailback for 2013's last 12 games. He proceeded to rush 249 times for 960 yards with eight touchdowns over the final dozen weeks, numbers that work out to 332-1,292-11 across a 16-start season. As Sam Bradford is nursed back from his October ACL tear, Stacy is headed for continued bellcow work.
22. Le'Veon Bell -- Bell's 3.52 YPC average isn't an accurate reflection of his rookie-season effectiveness. He caught 45 passes in 13 games, averaged 8.9 yards per reception, and was an all-purpose workhorse who got better as the year progressed. Bell will never be a high yards-per-carry back because he doesn't bust long runs. He will be a solid, consistent annual RB2.
23. Alfred Morris -- Morris' per-play efficiency wasn't far off his rookie campaign (4.62 YPC compared to 4.81 in 2012), but Washington's sieve-ish defense contributed to a down fantasy year for "Alf" as the Redskins constantly played from behind. Washington's overall offensive production should rise in 2014 ... assuming rookie coach Jay Gruden doesn't force Morris in a Bengals-like committee with Roy Helu. Morris' lack of passing-game skill works against him, and losing the Shanahans' tried-and-true zone-blocking scheme puts a bit of a lid on his upside.
24. Rob Gronkowski -- This ranking may be overly optimistic on a player who tore his ACL and MCL in December, but Gronkowski is worth a top-25 pick even if he only plays in eight games. He's that big of a score tilter at the painfully thin tight end position. At some point, however, Gronk's injury luck is going to run out. Kellen Winslow's did at age 27. Gronk turns 25 this May.
25. Drew Brees -- I'm still generally not a proponent of using early-round fantasy picks on quarterbacks, with Peyton Manning as the exception, and Brees and Aaron Rodgers both not terribly far behind. Brees' supporting cast should return near-fully intact, and he's finished as a top-six fantasy passer in nine straight years. I'm willing to draft him at the top of the third round.
26. Aaron Rodgers -- Rodgers' 2013 collarbone fracture doesn't concern me because I don't think he's suddenly injury prone. I do think his going-forward upside is somewhat restricted by Green Bay's increasingly balanced offense featuring Eddie Lacy. And potentially losing free agents James Jones and Jermichael Finley can't help. Rodgers' underrated rushing ability and insane passing talent keep him as my No. 3 quarterback. He's also getting back OT Bryan Bulaga.
27. DeSean Jackson -- D-Jax set career highs in catches (82) and yards (1,332), and tied his previous career high for touchdown receptions (9) in his first season under Chip Kelly, finishing as fantasy's No. 10 wideout scorer. I don't see Jackson as a great bet to repeat or better those numbers in 2014, but do expect Kelly to continue to scheme him the rock and get Jackson into space. I wouldn't want Jackson as my WR1, but would love him as a weekly high-ceiling WR2.
28. Larry Fitzgerald -- Playing the Reggie Wayne/Hines Ward slot role in Bruce Arians' offense led to a bounce-back year of sorts for Fitz, who notched 82 catches and ten touchdowns to finish 16th in receiver scoring. He battled recurring hamstring woes and his yards-per-reception average isn't nearly what it used to be due to the way Fitzgerald is now employed on the field, closer to the line of scrimmage. I expect Fitz to be a solid fantasy WR2 in 2014. I think his upside has taken a hit.
29. Andre Johnson -- A first- or second-ballot Hall of Famer, Johnson continues to overcome average-to-bad quarterback play and Father Time (33 this July) to post WR1 numbers. He ranked third in the NFL in 2013 receptions (109), seventh in receiving yards (1,407), and sixth in 20-plus-yard catches (20). The effect of new Texans coach Bill O'Brien's offense remains to be seen, but I do know he featured a true alpha receiver for both of his seasons at Penn State (Allen Robinson), and has a wide receivers coach background. So I expect at least one more big year from "A.J."
30. Alshon Jeffery -- Jeffery grew up in a hurry as an NFL sophomore, reshaping his body in the offseason and exploding (89-1,421-7) in Marc Trestman's receiver-friendly offense as a high-flying ball snatcher with strong hands and outstanding leaping ability. Whereas Brandon Marshall remains Chicago's short-to-intermediate target hog, Jeffery is the big-play artist. Only 24, Alshon is already approaching WR1 value in re-draft leagues. He’s a top-10 receiver in Dynasty.
31. Antonio Brown -- Brown shook off an injury-plagued 2012 to rank second in the NFL in both catches (110) and receiving yards (1,499), and 13th among wideouts in touchdown receptions (8). A movable receiver to whom returning Steelers OC Todd Haley schemes the ball, Brown will again be a 100-catch candidate in 2014. Pittsburgh may lose Emmanuel Sanders and Jerricho Cotchery to free agency. Look for Brown to start opposite raw sophomore Markus Wheaton.
32. Randall Cobb -- Cobb missed all but six regular season games with a fractured right fibula, returning late in the year to play limited snaps in two affairs. Now healthy and a proven dynamic presence when 100%, Cobb will enter 2014 as a shoo-in bounce-back pick in his contract year.
33. Ryan Mathews -- Mathews will enter the final year of his contract after setting career bests in games played (16), carries (285), and rushing yards (1,255) with a career-low one lost fumble. He emerged as San Diego's offensive centerpiece down the stretch. Mathews' December high ankle sprain is a reminder of his suspect durability, but he should be a strong RB2 pick in 2014 drafts.
34. Pierre Garcon -- Transitioning out of the target-magnet "X" receiver spot in Mike Shanahan's offense is somewhat concerning for Garcon's outlook, but Jay Gruden is bringing a pass-first attack to D.C., and the Redskins still aren't exactly brimming with pass catchers. As Robert Griffin III should improve further removed from his knee injury, Garcon stays in the high-end WR2 mix.
35. Keenan Allen -- An elite WR2 with WR1 upside, Allen quickly emerged as one of the NFL's premier route runners as a rookie, earning the obvious trust of Philip Rivers in the process. Including playoffs, Allen parlayed 16 starts into a 76-1,175-10 line in one of the best rookie receiver campaigns in league history. It's scary to think Allen will only keep getting better.
36. Reggie Bush -- Bush was a first-half fantasy monster in his debut season as a Lion before fading down the stretch, and being outplayed by Joique Bell. The biggest concern for Bush's 2014 outlook is whether Detroit's new coaching staff sees him as a feature back. Outgoing OC Scott Linehan ran a pass-heavy, shotgun-based offense in which Bush could function effectively on 270-plus touches. Bell is more of a classic I-formation back. I'd be looking to sell Bush in Dynasty.
37. Frank Gore -- Gore turns 31 in May and has 956 carries over the last three seasons, including playoffs. He'll be the biggest age-workload risk in 2014 fantasy drafts. Throw in Kendall Hunter and Marcus Lattimore as serious competitors for work, and Gore will be a tough sell despite his third straight top-13 running back finish. Over his final ten 2013-2014 games, Gore managed 592 yards and three scores on 162 runs (3.65 YPC). He hit 100 rushing yards once in the final 13.
38. Giovani Bernard -- New Bengals OC Hue Jackson is a run-game believer and will implement an offense built on the ground, attempting to mask Andy Dalton's deficiencies and keep the chains moving rather than ask Dalton to win games. Bernard's 2014 fantasy stock could explode if Cincinnati does something like cut BenJarvus Green-Ellis ($2.5 million) and install Rex Burkhead or Cedric Peerman as the No. 2 back. If they retain Law Firm or sign Darren McFadden, Gio could again be reduced to 14-16 touches per game. Ultimately, it's going to come down to whether Jackson feels Gio can be Ray Rice, or if Hue sees him as more of a complementary scatback.
39. Wes Welker -- Welker's disappointing statistical finish, mounting concussions, and age (33 in May) are certainly worth noting, but could end up making him a value pick in next fall's drafts. Still able to get open early in routes seemingly at will, Welker's arrow could point further upward if Eric Decker walks in free agency. I expect him to, setting up Welker for another strong WR2 season.
40. Cam Newton -- We can nitpick Cam to high heaven, but the guy has finished third, fourth, and third in fantasy quarterback scoring in his first three NFL seasons. In his first year under OC Mike Shula, Newton made major strides with his consistency, completion rate (61.7), and passer rating (88.8). If the Panthers acquire a true alpha-type receiver this offseason, look for Shula to open up the 2014 offense. Shula eased Newton along slowly in 2013, adding more to his plate each week.
41. Michael Crabtree -- Making an impressive recovery from an offseason Achilles' tendon tear, 26-year-old Crabtree wound up appearing in eight games in 2013-2014, racking up 34 receptions for 487 yards and one touchdown. Those numbers don't extrapolate as impressively on a 16-game schedule, but Crabtree mostly looked sharp in terms of run after catch and exploding in and out of breaks. Crabtree will be a popular bounce-back, breakout-type target in his contract year.
42. Shane Vereen -- Slated for a huge role in OC Josh McDaniels' offense, Vereen lost eight games to wrist surgery and was utilized inconsistently as the Patriots became more of a power running team down the stretch. He still totaled 761 yards from scrimmage with seven all-purpose touchdowns across ten appearances, including playoffs. The Patriots' game plan-specific strategy will always impact Vereen's consistency, but I'll be targeting him as an RB2 in PPR, and a flex with upside in 2014 standard leagues. He's more an in-space "satellite" back than true workhorse.
43. Knowshon Moreno -- An impending free agent, the best landing spot for Moreno's 2014 value is staying in Denver, where he would remain the Broncos' most polished all-around back and likely keep the lead role for one more season, barring dramatic improvements from Montee Ball's pass protection and ball security. There are major limitations on Moreno's running ability, and I think he'd be exposed outside of a Peyton Manning offense. So he's a lock to move up or down this list.
44. Matthew Stafford -- New Lions coach Jim Caldwell is something of a quarterbacks guru, which bodes well for Stafford's to-date wayward mechanics. The Caldwell hire doesn't necessarily mean Stafford will continue to put up yearly top-seven QB1 stats. Much of Stafford's box-score success has been attributable to outgoing OC Scott Linehan's pass-happy ways, as Detroit ranked sixth, third, first, first, and fifth in pass attempts in Linehan's five years. Coming from Baltimore, Caldwell may draw up more of a conventional offense with less shotgun and increased base running plays.
45. Victor Cruz -- Cruz's '13 production fell off a cliff with the rest of New York's "broken" offense, as opponents sold out to stop the Giants' slot receiver with no real perimeter passing threats. The G-Men have turned to ex-Packers OC Ben McAdoo in replacing Kevin Gilbride. McAdoo was on Mike McCarthy's staff for Randall Cobb's breakout 2012 season. Still only 27, Cruz could be the primary statistical beneficiary of the McAdoo hire. Buy low where possible in Dynasty leagues.
46. Vincent Jackson -- Although new Bucs OC Jeff Tedford is a total unknown at the NFL level, it isn't rocket science to identify V-Jax as Tampa's go-to guy in the passing game. Jackson's week-to-week consistency should also improve if the Bucs restore a viable No. 2 target (Mike Williams) and potent rushing attack. Now 31 years old, Jackson's Dynasty value is beginning to dim but he's been a top-14 fantasy wideout in three straight years and should return solid WR2 value in 2014.
47. Vernon Davis -- My No. 4 fantasy tight end behind Jimmy Graham, Julius Thomas, and Rob Gronkowski, Davis scored 15 touchdowns in 18 games this past season, including playoffs. And it still felt like Davis wasn't targeted enough. Davis improved greatly as a route runner in 2013, and his usage could continue to rise with Anquan Boldin a free agent. Davis turns 30 on January 31.
48. Roddy White -- I'll bet many 2014 fantasy drafters will be scared off by White's combination of advancing age (32) and recent injuries. So he's likely to be a value pick. Shaking off his knee and ankle ailments late in the season, White racked up 43 catches for 502 yards and two scores over Atlanta's final five games, good for a beastly 138-1,607-7 extrapolation. Look, the guy can still ball. The type of receiver who could remain productive into his mid to late 30s, White is someone to target in Dynasty leagues. I think he could return second- or third-round value in 2014 re-drafts.
49. T.Y. Hilton -- If you saw Hilton play at pretty much any point this season, you'd question why or how this 24-year-old born playmaker wasn't a regular starter until Indianapolis' Week 8 bye. Although there were some bumps along the way as defenses keyed up to stop him, Hilton caught at least five balls in eight of the Colts' final nine regular season games. From Week 9 on -- an 11-game stretch including the playoffs -- Hilton pasted opponents for a 72-998-5 line, working out to 105-1,452-8 on a 16-week projection. Even with Reggie Wayne (ACL surgery) virtually certain to return, Hilton will remain the favorite to lead Indy in receiving yards in year two of Pep Hamilton.
50. Torrey Smith -- Smith will enter his contract season at age 25 having set career bests in catches (65) and yards (1,128) in 2013. The return of Dennis Pitta and a potential upgrade at No. 2 receiver could help Smith, as he faced double teams as frequently as any wideout in football this past season. Smith may never be a 90-catch guy, but he's still ascending and will remain a WR2.
51. Percy Harvin -- The definition of a high-risk, high-reward fantasy pick, Harvin will enter 2014 having missed all but three of his teams' previous 25 games. He's battled an assortment of injuries (hip, concussion, ankle), but doesn't turn 26 until May and has MVP-type talent whenever available. In addition to durability, concerns include Seattle's run-first, receiver-unfriendly offense. But he'll be a must-start whenever he plays next season. I'll let you guess how much that'll be.
52. C.J. Spiller -- Spiller wasn't a 2013 fantasy dud because he suddenly lost running talent. The Bills' rookie coaching staff struggled to give him space early on, and for most of the rest of the season head-scratchingly let Spiller play through a high ankle sprain. Spiller still somehow managed to average 4.62 yards per carry and total 1,118 yards from scrimmage, finishing as the fantasy RB27 a year after ranking seventh at his position. As Fred Jackson will be 33 1/2 when the 2014 season starts, Buffalo's running back pendulum figures to swing back toward Spiller.
53. Matt Ryan -- Ryan will be the best bounce-back quarterback bet in 2014 fantasy football with Julio Jones and Roddy White returning from injury-plagued seasons. A top-eight fantasy passer in three of his last four years, Ryan would benefit from the offseason addition of a tight end to help replace Tony Gonzalez's production. Still under the direction of pass-first OC Dirk Koetter, Ryan has lost nothing off his fastball going on age 29 and remains positioned for statistical success.
54. Kendall Wright -- The touchdowns never quite did come, but Wright's 2013 breakout (94-1,079-2) took full effect despite sub-average quarterback play. Emerging as Randall Cobb South, Wright may be one of the most underrated long-range commodities in all of fantasy. Particularly valuable in PPR, Wright could flirt with low-end WR1 value in that format next season. Dynasty owners should hope ex-Chargers OC Ken Whisenhunt utilizes Wright like Keenan Allen in 2014. Allen and Wright have different body types, but are similarly movable around the formation.
55. Andrew Luck -- Through two NFL seasons, Luck has now finished tenth and fourth among fantasy passers while improving his completion rate (60.2%), TD-to-INT ratio (23:9), sack rate (5.3), and rushing yards (377) dramatically as a sophomore despite a dip of 57 pass attempts under conservative rookie OC Pep Hamilton. Luck can be an annual top 3-5 QB1 staple if the Colts open up their offense going forward. For now, he's still only viewable as a mid-range QB1.
56. Philip Rivers -- Rejuvenated in Mike McCoy's quick-hitting pass offense, Rivers played as comfortably in the pocket as he has since 2010, leading the NFL in completion rate (69.5) and finishing as the fantasy QB5 despite losing Danario Alexander (ACL) and Malcom Floyd (neck) to year-ending injuries early on. The concern is that McCoy's run-heavy late-season approach is a sign of things to come for 2014, which would limit Rivers' upside and pass attempts. Including the postseason, Rivers threw the football 30-plus times in just one of San Diego's final six games.
57. Jordan Cameron -- Cameron was a cinch 2013 breakout in Rob Chudzinski and Norv Turner's famously tight end-friendly offense, but his skill set isn't limited to one scheme. He's a highly athletic former basketball player whose game evolved rapidly en route to a 80-917-7 line and fifth place fantasy TE1 finish. Cameron battled slumps due to Cleveland's quarterback musical chairs, but took a big leap as a physical presence and could always stretch the field. Whether he can repeat those numbers in the post-Chud/Norv era may still largely depend on the Browns' next QB.
58. Marques Colston -- Colston turned in the weakest first half of his career in 2013, before returning from a midseason knee injury to compile a 61-761-5 line over the final ten games, including playoffs. It's a 98-catch, 1,213-yard, eight-score 16-game pace, which would've placed Colston 13th among fantasy wideouts, just behind Andre Johnson and ahead of Pierre Garcon. Colston's 31-year-old (in June) body may be wearing down some after so many career knee surgeries, but I tend to believe the slow start was an aberration. I'd love him as my WR3 in 2014.
59. Dennis Pitta -- Slated for a heavy-volume role as Baltimore's chain mover to Torrey Smith's deep threat, Pitta's July hip fracture/dislocation was an early nail in the Super Bowl 47 champs' 2013 coffin. Pitta returned in December for stat lines of 6-48-1, 2-24, 4-34, and 8-63 in the final four games. Now a 28-year-old free agent, retaining Pitta is likely to be a priority for Baltimore. He's a relatively safe bounce-back bet with a chance to lead the Ravens in 2014 receptions.
60. Jay Cutler -- The Bears are certainly pleased with Cutler's progress in QB Whisperer Marc Trestman's offense, locking him up for $126.7 million over seven years on January 2. In the ten 2013 games where Cutler was healthy enough to play most of Chicago's offensive snaps, he went 221-of-347 (63.7%) for 2,593 yards (7.47 YPA) and a 19:11 TD-to-INT ratio, good for mid-range QB1 stats (31 TDs, 260-yard average) on a full schedule. Cutler has elite weapons in Alshon Jeffery, Brandon Marshall, and Martellus Bennett, and is a lock to be a 2014 fantasy value pick.
61. Eric Decker -- Decker reached elite statistical heights in two seasons with Peyton Manning, finishing as the fantasy WR8 and WR9, respectively. The Broncos will soon have to lock up Demaryius Thomas and Julius Thomas -- both enter contract years -- so I expect free agent Decker to be the odd man out of Denver this offseason. And I think he could be exposed a bit away from a Peyton offense. Decker remains a good bet to return WR2/3 value, but is highly unlikely to remain a WR1. Reuniting with Josh McDaniels in New England is a possibility.
62. Julian Edelman -- Long an intriguing talent, Edelman finally realized his potential in a breakout 2013 campaign, emerging as easily Tom Brady's most reliable receiver en route to career highs in catches (105), yards (1,056), and touchdowns (6). I ranked Edelman conservatively here because he's an impending free agent, but he'd fly quickly up the list if re-signed by the Pats. More than just a scrappy slot receiver, Edelman wins on both inside and outside routes. He turns 28 in May.
63. Nick Foles -- Foles didn't beat out Michael Vick to start Opening Day, but flourished when his opportunity came. Starting all but one game from Week 6 on, Foles led the NFL in yards-per-attempt average (9.1), QB rating (119.2), and touchdown rate (8.5%). He posted a near-flawless 27:2 TD-to-INT ratio and ranked sixth among signal callers in per-game fantasy scoring. Foles is something of a "system" quarterback, as he lacks elite physical traits and was inarguably buoyed by Philly's league-best rushing attack. But you can't argue with his 2013 efficiency. Foles will be a back-end QB1 with upside in 2014 drafts. I'd balk at leaning on him as a long-term Dynasty QB1.
64. Jordan Reed -- Aaron Hernandez lite, fellow Florida alum Reed was emerging as a top-end TE1 before a Week 11 concussion ended his season. The Shanahans utilized Reed as the Shannon Sharpe to Pierre Garcon's Rod Smith. The brain injury isn't expected to affect Reed's future outlook, but Washington's coaching change to Jay Gruden could. In three years as Cincinnati's offensive coordinator, Gruden never oversaw a tight end who reached 750 yards. Reed will have to improve his blocking to max his potential in Gruden's rotation-heavy offense.
65. Ben Tate -- Tate is ranked conservatively because I have no idea where he'll be playing in 2014. The free agent won't return to Houston and has battled injuries for significant portions of three of his four NFL seasons. Turning 26 before next season, Tate has averaged a robust 4.73 yards per carry on 421 career totes, with ten touchdowns and 58 catches. He will rise if he lands a clear starting job on the open market. Tate is a downhill power back with above-average talent.
66. Stevan Ridley -- In between two fumbling-induced benchings, Ridley shredded the league for a combined 95-441-7 line in Weeks 4-11, averaging 4.64 YPC and playing like every bit the back who finished as fantasy's RB10 the season before. Now entering the last year of his rookie deal, 25-year-old Ridley figures to get one last crack at New England's lead back role with Shane Vereen as his "passing-back" complement. Things could get trickier, of course, if the Patriots re-sign free agent LeGarrette Blount. Ridley figures to be a boom-or-bust fantasy selection in 2014.
67. Montee Ball -- After beginning his rookie year painfully slowly, Ball wound up finishing the regular season with a 4.66 YPC average (Knowshon Moreno's was 4.31) and earning a timeshare with Denver's impending free agent starter. Including playoffs, Ball handled eight-plus touches in nine of the Broncos' final 11 games. Ball remains imperfect in pass protection -- critical for any tailback in a Peyton Manning offense -- but will get a chance to win Denver's 2014 lead back role if his improvement continues. There is no question that Ball is the Broncos' best pure runner.
68. Cordarrelle Patterson -- A rookie All-Pro kickoff returner, Patterson led the NFL in return average (32.4), 40-plus-yard returns (10), return touchdowns (2) and yards per carry (13.2) among rushers with at least 12 attempts. He scored six touchdowns over his final five games. With video-game talent, Patterson the Playmaker will be a trendy 2014 breakout pick. Obstacles for Patterson will be his continued rawness as a route runner and Minnesota's quarterback woes.
69. Tony Romo -- The Cowboys' identity-less offense was all sorts of dysfunctional in 2013, and playing Miles Austin way more snaps than he deserved essentially inserted a black hole into Dallas' lineup. Romo still finished a respectable tenth in per-game QB scoring and threw 31 touchdown passes, tied for the second most of his career. The arrow is quietly pointing up on Romo, as Austin is expected to be a June 1 cap cut. Look for a lot more of promising pups Terrance Williams, Cole Beasley, and Gavin Escobar behind Dez Bryant and Jason Witten in '14.
70. Steven Jackson -- Jackson's on-field performance improved slightly as he finally recovered from a Week 2 hamstring tear down the stretch, but he still failed to clear 4.0 yards per carry in 9-of-12 appearances. Atlanta's cap savings would be minor ($1.83 million) were Jackson released, so I think the odds still slightly favor his return. The Falcons' offense is a lock to improve with Julio Jones and Roddy White back healthy, but Jackson turns 31 in July and remains the NFL's active leader in carries -- by 365 over Frank Gore. He'll be worth a look as a 2014 flex pick, not an RB2.
71. Robert Griffin III -- RG3's nightmarish sophomore year saw his running ability sapped by the previous season's knee injury, and Griffin's per-game scoring plummet from fantasy's QB5 as a rookie to QB12 in 2013. At age 24 with 21 months between the ACL/LCL tear when the 2014 season starts, Griffin will be a better bet to rebound than not. Boosting his volume will be new coach Jay Gruden's pass-first offense, as Gruden allowed Andy Dalton to rank ninth in the NFL in pass attempts per game this past season despite far inferior talent to Griffin. RG3 ranked 16th.
72. Ray Rice -- Leave out Week 11 against Chicago's historically sieve-ish run defense, and Rice managed 529 yards and three touchdowns on 189 carries (2.80 YPC) in his other 14 games. Rice allegedly played most of the season through a painful hip injury, but it's entirely possible past workloads have simply caught up with him. Greg Schiano ran Rice 910 times in three seasons as a college player, and including playoffs he has amassed 1,621 more across six years in the NFL.
73. Tom Brady -- Brady's intermediate to deep accuracy has regressed in back-to-back seasons, and his supporting cast continues to be a huge question mark with Julian Edelman scheduled for free agency, Rob Gronkowski nursing ACL and MCL tears, and Danny Amendola fantastically flopping in his first season in Foxboro. Brady turns 37 before next season and isn't taking the Peyton Manning late-career path. It certainly doesn't help that New England is transitioning from a pass-first to run-heavy team. I expect to feel at a disadvantage if Tom Terrific is my 2014 QB1.
74. Rashad Jennings -- Rebounding from a brutal year in Jacksonville, Jennings outplayed Darren McFadden en route to a rock-solid 163-733-4.5-6 rushing line with career highs in receptions (36) and yards (292) despite playing behind one of the league's least talented offensive lines. Jennings won't be a coveted free agent going on age 29, but could return RB2/flex value by staying on as a stopgap starter in Oakland. Dynasty owners should be hoping Jennings does not change teams.
75. Chris Johnson -- The Titans should have cut him two offseasons ago. Although Johnson still intermittently flashes game-breaking ability, his on-field effort has been inconsistent to be kind, and his 2013 YPC average of 3.86 was the worst of his career. Turning 29 early next season and a certainty to be released by Tennessee, Johnson is likely to prove no more than a 2014 tease. The ability hasn't evaporated, but the desire to be great went out the window several years back.
76. Reggie Wayne -- Before tearing his right ACL and meniscus on October 20, Wayne was on pace for 87 catches, 1,150 yards, and five touchdowns. Those numbers look somewhat enticing on paper, but expecting a 35-year-old receiver coming off a major knee injury to return better than middling WR3 stats would be awfully bold. Still, the Colts aren't parting ways with Wayne at a reasonable $4 million salary. Look for Wayne in a clear possession role in 2014. With the emergence of T.Y. Hilton, there is reason to believe Wayne's days of high fantasy impact are over.
77. Jason Witten -- Although Witten isn't showing major signs of decline going on age 32, he's just a keep-you-competitive tight end starter whose weekly scoring falls well short of the top four. He's not worth a premium fantasy pick. There's an argument to be made that you could stream tight ends and come very close to Witten's game-by-game production, even beating it some weeks.
78. Trent Richardson -- The biggest disappointment of the football season in both real life and fantasy, Richardson performed like a disinterested plodder in 2013, running without instincts or confidence as his YPC average plummeted to 2.92 in 14 regular season appearances as a Colt. Confirming their displeasure with Richardson's performance, the team let him touch the rock four times in two playoff games. Richardson rewarded them with one yard. T-Rich wouldn't be the first left-for-dead running back to experience a career revival (see Marshawn Lynch, Cedric Benson, Knowshon Moreno), but he needs to shed weight and rediscover his quick-twitch explosion. Even with Donald Brown entering free agency, the Colts won't be handing Richardson a starting job.
79. Rueben Randle -- Randle will be a wildly popular 2014 breakout pick as he replaces Hakeem Nicks in the starting lineup. Ideally, new Giants OC Ben McAdoo -- formerly Green Bay's QBs coach -- will utilize Randle in the Jordy Nelson role, with Victor Cruz filling Randall Cobb's shoes. A certified playmaker on limited to-date playing time, 22-year-old Randle is sitting on a combined 60-909-15.2-9 line through two NFL seasons. He has some warts, but is a touchdown scorer.
80. Russell Wilson -- Wilson has ranked ninth and eighth in fantasy quarterback scoring through two NFL seasons, but Seattle's run-heavy philosophy has a limiting effect on his production, and Wilson's stretch-run decline is cause for 2014 concern. He was a noticeably ineffective passer over Seattle's final six games, including the Wild Card and Divisional rounds. Wilson should be viewed as a low-end QB1, but rising higher will require better play and a more wide-open offense.
81. Andre Ellington -- A slightly poor man's Giovani Bernard, Ellington led all 2013 rushers in yards per carry (5.53) among players with at least 100 attempts. Despite rotating with Rashard Mendenhall all year, Ellington totaled 1,023 yards from scrimmage and scored four touchdowns as a rookie sixth-round pick. Ellington goes only 5-foot-9, 199, however, and coach Bruce Arians has been publicly opposed to committing to him as a true feature back. If Arizona lets Mendenhall walk and Arians changes his mind about Ellington, he will offer major 2014 breakout potential.
82. Mike Wallace -- Wallace scored four touchdowns over his final six games to salvage a top-25 fantasy receiver finish, but he was an exasperating player to own. Wallace lacked chemistry with Ryan Tannehill, whose 58 sacks absorbed led the NFL. It's awfully hard for deep threat receivers to turn in consistent production when their team can't pass protect. Perhaps new Dolphins OC Bill Lazor, formerly of the Eagles, will try using Wallace in a DeSean Jacksonian role. More likely, Wallace will endure another season of boom-or-bust weeks. I'll be treating him as a shaky WR3.
83. Cecil Shorts -- I like Shorts' route-running and run-after-reception ability, but he's been stretched in Jacksonville's top receiver role with statistics largely the product of catch-up mode and the no-one-else-to-throw-to theory. A quarterback upgrade should help Shorts, but Justin Blackmon's return and a more competitive Jacksonville team wouldn't. Also somewhat prone to injury, 26-year-old Shorts should be a mid-range to low-end WR3 on 2014 fantasy draft boards.
84. Maurice Jones-Drew -- It was painful to watch Jones-Drew at times in 2013, as his open-field burst was lacking and his YPC average dipped to a career-worst 3.43. MJD did seem to learn late in the year that he's no longer playing with the same explosion he used to, and became a mildly effective grinder. Either way, he's likely to generate limited free-agent interest and isn't guaranteed to land a starting job. With over 1,800 career carries on his tires, Jones-Drew turns 29 in March.
85. Chris Ivory -- Ivory overcame a frustrating August hamstring injury to average 4.58 yards on 182 carries, but the Jets' anemic offense crushed his scoring (3 TDs), and his fit for OC Marty Mornhinweg's passing-oriented scheme was questionable. Because he lacks pass-game chops, Ivory needs 250-plus carries to pay season-long dividends. He's just a matchup-based flex when getting under 200. Mornhinweg returns in 2014, so it's going to be tough to expect a big box-score jump.
86. Michael Floyd -- Floyd's sophomore-year stats (65-1,041-5) look pretty on paper, but at no point was he a reliable weekly fantasy starter. He was held under 65 yards in 10-of-16 games. Floyd is only 24 and should keep getting better, but he needs to develop more of an all-around game. He was primarily a deep threat in Bruce Arians' first year with Arizona, registering an aDOT (Average Depth of Target) of 15.2 yards, which ranked 14th among receivers. I want to see him become a higher-volume player, and I'm not sure that'll happen until Larry Fitzgerald moves on.
87. Justin Blackmon -- Blackmon made a beastly if brief 2013 return from a four-game substance abuse suspension, registering stat lines of 5-136-1 and 14-190 before tailing off some and getting hit with an indefinite ban for yet another transgression that landed him in rehab in November. There's no way around it: Blackmon has a major drinking problem. But he's eligible to apply for reinstatement before next season, and looked more fit and explosive than ever during his short sophomore year. He maintains plenty of Dynasty value and will be a 2014 re-draft wild card.
88. Dwayne Bowe -- Bowe was a dud in his first year of Alex Smith, but his second half provides some room for 2014 optimism. Smith showed more willingness to pull the trigger on legit NFL throws down the stretch, and Bowe benefited with a stat line of 39-521-4 over Kansas City's final eight games, including playoffs. That 78-1,042-8 pace was along the lines of what 2013 drafters thought they were getting. Bowe's upside will remain capped by Smith's sub-average talent -- he's always had a limiting effect on receivers -- but there's a small bit of bounce-back potential here.
89. Andre Brown -- Free agent Brown will move up these rankings if the Giants re-sign him, and down if he walks and accepts a backup job elsewhere. A grinder with average to above-average run talent but plus passing-game chops, Brown is averaging 4.09 YPC on 214 career carries.
90. Lamar Miller -- Combine league-worst line play with a coaching staff wholly uncommitted to the run, and you have 2013 fantasy bust Lamar Miller. Miller deserves plenty of blame himself, however, not running physically enough through arm tackles and failing to convince ex-OC Mike Sherman he was a significantly superior option to career plodder Daniel Thomas. Miami's offense is now under the direction of former Philly QBs coach Bill Lazor, whose 2013 Eagles led the NFL in rushing and yards-per-carry average. Miller remains an above-average talent and will only be 23 years old next season, but he'll have to show Lazor he's worthy of a feature back workload.
91. Fred Jackson -- Jackson has noticeably lost lateral agility at age 33, but reliability, vision, toughness, and Buffalo's run-dominated offense worked in his favor enough to finish as 2013's No. 10 fantasy back. To put the improbability of that ranking into perspective, F-Jax had never been a top-12 fantasy runner before in his career. Jackson will be 33 1/2 when the 2014 season opens, and the pendulum figures to swing more toward 27-year-old C.J. Spiller after Spiller's star-crossed '13. F-Jax could maintain matchup-based flex value, but is a candidate to be overdrafted.
92. Terrance Williams -- The Cowboys are expected to make washed-up Miles Austin a June 1 cap casualty, clearing No. 2 receiver duties for Williams with Cole Beasley in the slot role. It's a move they should've made some time ago. Although Williams' consistency was predictably lacking as a third-round pick out of Baylor, his 44-736-5 line would be impressive for any rookie, and his big-play ability was evident on limited playing time. He has breakout WR2/3 upside for 2014.
93. Joique Bell -- Bell is a restricted free agent, but he's easy for the Lions to retain with a second-round tender. Despite sharing Detroit's 2013 backfield with Reggie Bush, Bell quietly finished as the RB17 on the strength of eight touchdowns and a Chris Ivoryish running style. He's also highly skilled in the pass game with 50-plus catches in back-to-back years. If the Lions' new coaching staff wants more of a true I-formation runner, they'll make Bell a key part of the 2014 offense. Bush could see more time at slot receiver in that scenario, and operate as a pace-change back.
94. Anquan Boldin -- Capitalizing on Michael Crabtree's 11 missed games, Boldin set a five-year high in catches (85) and seven-year high in yards (1,179) with seven touchdowns as the 49ers' default No. 1 wideout. Boldin can still ball, but turns 34 in the first half of next season, and last year's opportunity-inflated numbers aren't a reliable indication of what's to come regardless of where he lands. He's a free agent likely to latch on with a contender in a complementary role.
95. Stevie Johnson -- I'm not quite buying rumors of Johnson as a cap casualty -- the Bills seem concerned with E.J. Manuel after a tumultuous rookie year and shouldn't be cutting ties with their most reliable receiver -- but a reduced role is possible as Buffalo ushers Marquise Goodwin and Robert Woods into more playing time. Johnson clashed with coach Doug Marrone off the field, and on it posted four-year lows in catches (52), yards (597), and touchdowns (3). Dynasty owners should hope he gets cut or dealt. The Bills' offense is not conducive to big receiver stats.
96. Danny Amendola -- One of 2013 free agency's biggest busts along with Chargers CB Derek Cox and ex-Texans FS Ed Reed, Amendola laid an absolute egg in his first season with the Pats. He was so ineffective that even when healthy OC Josh McDaniels only felt comfortable playing Amendola on around half of New England's offensive snaps. Including playoffs, he was held to 55 yards or fewer in 10-of-14 appearances. The Patriots are invested in Amendola and want him to succeed, giving him some bounce-back appeal. But 2013 couldn't have gone much worse.
97. Marvin Jones -- Cincinnati's No. 3 playmaker behind A.J. Green and Giovani Bernard, Jones overcame an inexplicable No. 2 receiver rotation with vastly inferior Mohamed Sanu to register a 51-712-10 stat line as an NFL sophomore. Jones only played 50.0% of the offensive snaps. New OC Hue Jackson is committed to a more balanced offense, but Jones could take another step forward in catches and yards if Cincy commits to him as a full-time player. I love him in Dynasty.
98. Hakeem Nicks -- If Trent Richardson, David Wilson, and C.J. Spiller were fantasy's three biggest 2013 disappointments, Nicks wasn't far off. I documented Nicks' NFL injury history in last August's Shy-Away 40 column, and it's jaw dropping. He's experienced a steady decline since being diagnosed with compartment syndrome in his right leg in 2010. Including playoffs, Nicks has three touchdowns over his last 29 games. Nicks will be an incredibly high-risk free-agent signing, and his fantasy future may depend more on his health and on-field effort than 2014 destination.
99. Kyle Rudolph -- The quarterback void remains, but I moved Rudolph 30 spots up this list when the Vikings hired Norv Turner to call plays. Over the last decade, Turner's tight end-friendly offense has coaxed career years out of Randy McMichael, Antonio Gates, and Jordan Cameron, utilizing the position at a voluminous clip with a field-stretching receiver on the outside. Cordarrelle Patterson figures to fill the latter role. Still only 24, Rudolph has major value-pick TE1 potential if the Vikings upgrade under center. When healthy, Rudolph has flashed Gronkian red-zone chops.
100. Aaron Dobson -- I'm going to be pushing Dobson as a 2014 breakout candidate. Although early-season route-running woes and a late-season foot injury limited his final-year stats, the rising sophomore was bypassing Kenbrell Thompkins by October and turned in the following stat lines in the six games where he played at least 50 snaps: 7-52, 6-63, 4-61-1, 5-130-2, 4-38, 1-21. Those numbers extrapolate to 72-966-8 over a full season. The Patriots need Dobson to be a major part of their 2014 offense, and will likely make his progression an offseason priority.
101. Darren Sproles -- Keeping the faith in Sproles throughout the fantasy season was tempting because he's been such a consistent annual scorer in New Orleans, and is such a fantastic theoretical fit for what the Saints do on offense. But his snaps and touches were scaled back pretty significantly, for reasons undisclosed. Beat writers suspected Sean Payton was "saving" Sproles for the playoffs, but nothing changed in the final two games. Maybe Payton just believes Sproles is past his prime. He turns 31 in June, and his role seems unlikely to re-grow in 2014.
102. Pierre Thomas -- Thomas led the Saints in 2013 carries (147) and rushing yards (549), and finished second to only Jimmy Graham in catches (77), but averaged 3.73 YPC and missed the playoffs with a chest injury. He finished as fantasy's RB23. Owed $2.9 million in salary and bonuses, Thomas is an offseason release candidate. The 29-year-old's fantasy value could evaporate quickly away from Sean Payton, though my guess is he'll hang on for one more year.
103. Ben Roethlisberger -- Roethlisberger wound up as one of the better quarterback values in 2013 drafts, ranking 12th in scoring despite a tumultuous year for Pittsburgh. Big Ben's 28 touchdown passes were the second most of his ten-year career, and his yardage (4,261) was a four-year high. Think what you will about Steelers OC Todd Haley; his offenses are undeniably quarterback and receiver friendly. Expect a similar stat line from Roethlisberger in 2014. The Steelers may lose Emmanuel Sanders and Jerricho Cotchery to free agency, but Heath Miller's knee will be healthier and explosive 2013 third-rounder Markus Wheaton is waiting in the wings.
104. Greg Olsen -- Olsen has finished as a top-eight fantasy tight end in back-to-back seasons, but his on-field production hasn't been much better than replacement level. He's a slightly poor man's Jason Witten. Olsen can keep owners competitive on a week-to-week basis, but chasing waiver-wire tight ends in plus matchups can net similar production. He's not a difference maker.
105. Colin Kaepernick -- There were bumps along the way, but Kaepernick put a bow on his first season as a full-time starter with a 21:8 TD-to-INT ratio, 25 all-purpose scores, and a top-nine fantasy finish despite significant supporting-cast deficiencies and frequent 49ers blowout wins that crushed Kap's upside some weeks because he simply didn't have to do much for his team to win. Kap needs to improve his firmness in the pocket and progression reading, but he'll remain an upside QB1/2 pick in 2014 fantasy drafts with a bazooka arm and game-breaking rushing ability.
106. Charles Clay -- Clay more than offset Miami's preseason loss of Dustin Keller with career bests in receptions (69), yards (759), and touchdowns (6) as Ryan Tannehill's movable safety valve. He ranked seventh among fantasy tight ends. New Fins OC Bill Lazor comes from Chip Kelly's coaching staff, where the Eagles mixed and matched tight ends based on opponent. So there is some risk of Clay becoming a week-to-week dice roll as Zach Ertz and Brent Celek were. I still like Clay's chances of returning low-end to mid-range TE1 value entering his contract year.
107. Martellus Bennett -- Held under 70 yards in 12-of-16 games his first season with Chicago, Bennett was another middling, keep-you-competitive tight end whose replacement-level stats could be plucked off weekly waiver wires. These types don't deserve to go early in fantasy drafts. I still think Bennett has a ten-TD season in him, but wouldn't love the idea of drafting him to be my TE1. He's the Bears' No. 4 pass option behind Brandon Marshall, Alshon Jeffery, and Matt Forte.
108. Danny Woodhead -- Woodhead opened the season in a high-volume Sprolesian role before taking a second-half backseat to Ryan Mathews, to whom the Chargers committed legit bellcow work. Mathews returns for his contract year, leaving Woodhead with flex appeal only in PPR. He may have a hard time staying roster-worthy in 2014 standard leagues. Ultimately, Woodhead is a more effective real-life than fantasy player. He did finish 2013 with career highs across the board.
109. Ryan Tannehill -- A consistent if limited-upside fantasy passer as a sophomore, Tannehill doubled his touchdowns (24) while markedly improving his completion rate (60.4) and yardage (3,913). The good news for Miami is pass-obsessed OC Mike Sherman is gone, and Tannehill won't drop back often enough to duplicate his league-high 58 sacks taken. The Fins will field a more balanced attack under OC Bill Lazor, who comes from run-heavy Philadelphia. The bad news is Tannehill's pass attempts will take a hit, and he'll be forced to learn a revised offense.
110. Shonn Greene -- Greene has a chance to open 2014 as the Titans' starting tailback with Chris Johnson considered a virtual certainty to be released. It just makes Greene a slightly more intriguing fantasy commodity. Turning 29 years old before next season, Greene's yards-per-carry averages have dipped on an annual basis throughout his career, and he's never been functional in the pass game. He could just as easily be beaten out in camp by a second- or third-round rookie.
111. Bryce Brown -- Despite prototypical size (6'0/223) and speed (4.48), and reliable hands, there were 2013 indications Brown wasn't an ideal fit for Chip Kelly's offense. He has a tendency to bounce runs outside rather than get north-south downhill, leaving yards on the field. Brown also struggled to hold off more pedestrian teammate Chris Polk for primary backup duties to LeSean McCoy. Brown still holds a 4.62 YPC average through two seasons, and could start for a number of teams. I wouldn't be surprised if Philadelphia placed Brown on the trade block this offseason.
112. James Jones -- Jones' free-agent stock would be more intriguing had his production not fallen off so suddenly from 2012 to 2013. His league-high 14 TDs from two seasons ago proved an obvious fluke, plummeting to three while his reception total also stumbled. Jones turns 30 in March and has never been a smooth separator, though he mixes it up physically. He could be a solid No. 2 receiver outside of Green Bay. Jones' fantasy outlook will depend on his landing spot.
113. Jeremy Maclin -- Maclin tore his right ACL on July 27 and had surgery on August 6. As the ligament was a clean tear and his rehab has all along been described as "ahead of schedule," the market interest in Maclin could surprise. He doesn't turn 26 until May with a pretty consistently productive track record. From a fantasy perspective, Maclin's best landing spot would be away from Philadelphia, where Chip Kelly's run-heavy offense didn’t support more than one reliable pass-catching producer. Maclin's recent comments have hinted he wants to re-sign with the Eagles.
114. Mike Williams -- The Bucs will be a run-heavy, defensive-minded team under new OC Jeff Tedford, limiting Williams' bounce-back appeal. His 2014 health shouldn't be a concern following October's hamstring tear, but pass attempts in Tampa Bay likely will be. Look for the Bucs to prioritize upgrading tight end this offseason, and Williams to remain a complementary receiver behind Vincent Jackson. His fantasy value will continue to be heavily touchdown dependent.
115. Bernard Pierce -- Pierce was quietly one of the biggest disappointments of the 2013 season. Pierce kept his timeshare with Ray Rice but didn’t capitalize with Rice struggling, somehow managing to finish with a lower YPC average (3.08 to 2.87) and failing to outplay his overused teammate. The offensive line deserves plenty of blame, but Pierce just didn't get any better going from his age-22 rookie season to 23 as a sophomore. He'll now be 24 with a more cloudy future.
116. Steve Smith -- Having officially devolved into a late-career possession receiver, Smith's 2013 numbers plummeted in a conservatively-called Panthers offense that was led in receptions and yards by its tight end. In his age-34 season, Smith posted a six-year low in yards per catch (11.6) and finished 42nd among fantasy receivers. OC Mike Shula may open up the offense some in his second year as coordinator, but probably not enough to get Smith back on the 1,000-yard radar.
117. Golden Tate -- I've noticed Tate has a sort of cultish backing among plenty of smart people who believe he's better than I do. I think he's a mid-range to potentially high-end No. 2-caliber receiver who's been stretched as a No. 1. He does have some playmaking ability and could be fun to watch in a higher-tempo, more receiver-friendly attack. If the Seahawks re-sign Tate -- and I tend to think they will -- he's going to remain a borderline, relatively low-ceiling year-to-year WR3.
118. Tavon Austin -- Rotoworld wasn't high on Austin before the season, but he outdid even our lowest expectations. Finishing 56th in fantasy receiver scoring, "Tavon Awesome" was not only underutilized by OC Brian Schottenheimer, but the No. 8 overall pick in the draft failed to earn increased playing time by dropping six passes in the first five games and averaging 10.5 yards per catch. It's hard to project Sam Bradford's return as a potential spark to Austin because he was more productive with Kellen Clemens. Austin will be a boom-or-bust 2014 re-draft pick.
119. Jarrett Boykin -- Green Bay targets are up for grabs with Jermichael Finley and James Jones entering free agency. Boykin lacks special talent, but is a steady technician who turned in a 49-681-3 line in a semi-breakout year despite limited snaps and an Aaron Rodgers injury. Boykin is the favorite to open 2014 as Green Bay's No. 3 wideout behind Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb.
120. David Wilson -- The quick-twitch explosion and athletic upside should still be there. The on-field reliability and health aren't. Having undergone January neck surgery, Wilson is a candidate to swing wildly up or down this list based on Giants offseason moves and reports on his recovery. Still just 22 years old, enigmatic underachiever Wilson should remain stashed on Dynasty rosters.
121. Darren McFadden -- DMC has missed at least three games to injury in each of his first six NFL seasons, and managed 1,090 yards with seven touchdowns on 332 carries (3.28 YPC) over his last 23 affairs. Now entering free agency going on age 27, McFadden's star-crossed career will likely close out in a backfield committee. GM Reggie McKenzie's Raiders won't re-sign him.
122. Donald Brown -- Among NFL backs with at least 100 rushing attempts, only Andre Ellington bettered Brown's 5.26 YPC average in easily the best season of the once-failed first-round pick's career. A free agent, Brown's lack of a volume-friendly skill set will work against his chances of landing a starting job. The Colts still value Brown most, so look for them to try to re-sign him.
123. LeGarrette Blount -- Blount emerged as New England's clear-cut lead back down the stretch, demonstrating improved leg drive through contact and short-yardage prowess. Now an unrestricted free agent, Blount lacks pass-game chops but is a capable workhorse in a power-blocking scheme. He has an outside chance at RB2/flex value depending on his landing spot.
124. DeAngelo Williams -- The salary cap ramifications of releasing either outweigh the upshot of Carolina cutting DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, so expect both to return in a similar-looking 2014 backfield behind Cam Newton, with Mike Tolbert in the scoring-position-back role. Williams was mildly valuable as the Panthers' early-season lead back, but his start-ability became nonexistent when Stewart returned from PUP. As Williams turns 31 in April with a YPC average that's dipped in back-to-back seasons, he won't be on the radar of 2014 fantasy upside seekers.
125. Delanie Walker -- I entered 2013 a doubter that previously drop-prone Walker was capable of functioning effectively as a starting tight end. He proved me wrong by combining his typically strong run blocking with career highs in catches (60), yards (571), and touchdowns (6). New coach Ken Whisenhunt's comparisons to Antonio Gates bode especially promising for Walker's outlook. He should return high-end TE2 value with room for more pending a quarterback upgrade.
126. Heath Miller -- Miller returned from his December 2012 triple-knee ligament tear in Week 3 to start every game left in Pittsburgh's season. He finished with a 58-593-1 stat line. Although Miller was dragging his leg at times, he's going to be much closer to 100% in 2014 in the same offense that produced his top-four fantasy tight end ranking from the season before. With Emmanuel Sanders and Jerricho Cotchery entering free agency, Miller should get back near TE1 numbers.
127. Riley Cooper -- Cooper's two-game, five-touchdown midseason scoring binge was exposed as a mirage when he reached pay dirt once over Philly's final six regular season games. He started every game but only topped 60 yards five times. Now a free agent, Cooper would be best suited as a No. 3 or 4 receiver and jump-ball specialist. The market will determine his outlook.
128. Antonio Gates -- Turning 34 in June, Gates is owed a $5 million base salary after failing to top 50 receiving yards in eight consecutive games to close out the season. San Diego may prefer to make Gates a Charger for life, but Ladarius Green should command a larger piece of the receiving pie in 2014. You're probably not going to want Gates as your starting fantasy tight end.
129. Mark Ingram -- Including playoffs, Ingram rushed 55 times for 374 yards (6.8 YPC) and two touchdowns in the four games he received at least ten totes. He managed 158 scoreless yards on 51 runs in his other eight games. We're obviously dealing in small sample sizes here, but I don't think it's any coincidence that Ingram is more productive when he gets more carries. He's a volume grinder who simply doesn't play in the type of offense that caters to that. Ingram needs to get out of New Orleans before he gets too old. We'll reassess if he’s moved this offseason.
130. Owen Daniels -- Daniels never did return after suffering a non-displaced fibula fracture in Week 5. Now 31 years old with a $4.5 million non-guaranteed base salary, Daniels is a prime candidate for offseason release with Ryan Griffin waiting in the wings. Even if Daniels does stay in Houston, a rookie quarterback could take an axe to his value. He'll be a clear TE2 in 2014 drafts.
131. Eli Manning -- Manning's quarterback scoring has now dropped in back-to-back years, and his TD count has dipped in three straight. He'll be learning a new offense for the first time in his career this offseason under West Coast mind Ben McAdoo, whom the G-Men hired away from Green Bay. Eli has enough ability left to bounce back into the top 13-15 fantasy passers, but his days of winning fantasy trophies were short lived. He'll be a QB2 pick with moderate upside in '14.
132. Alex Smith -- First-year Chiefs coach Andy Reid did masterful work with Smith in their first season together, expanding him over the course of the year and building him up. By the stretch run, Smith showed more willingness to pull the trigger on contested and 12-plus-yard throws than ever before in his career. Smith wound up with career highs in passing scores (23), yards (3,313), and rushing yards (431) en route to a No. 14 fantasy quarterback finish. That's likely his peak, but Smith should remain a consistently high-end QB2 in '14. He'll be a fine target in two-QB leagues.
133. Coby Fleener -- Fleener took big box-score steps forward after a non-factor rookie year, but benefited from Dwayne Allen year-ending Week 1 hip injury and Reggie Wayne's Week 7 ACL tear. Fleener was forced into a prominent role he wasn't ready for, regularly getting physically dominated in both run and pass games. His atrocious blocking could lead to reduced playing time in 2014, especially with Allen returning. Fleener's top-13 tight end finish from 2013 is fool's gold.
134. Greg Jennings -- Playing Percy Harvin's old position of Z and slot receiver, Jennings turned in a pedestrian first season with the Vikings, catching 68 balls across 15 games but clearing 60 yards just four times. Slowing down going on age 31, Jennings is a late-career possession receiver. He'd need a mammoth quarterback upgrade to rediscover consistent WR3 value.
135. Denarius Moore -- Moore annually flashes potential to be a No. 1-caliber receiver, but shaky quarterback play, durability woes, and on-field inconsistency have held him back. He missed three games with a shoulder injury in 2013, and played behind Andre Holmes upon return. Moore has also dropped 14 passes in two seasons since mishandling just two as a rookie in 2011. Now entering his contract year, Moore faces significant obstacles as he looks to make a leap.
136. Brian Hartline -- A fairly consistent but low-upside 1,000-yard receiver at this point, Hartline's problem is he doesn't make enough big plays. He's sprinkled just seven touchdowns among his last 228 receptions. Now entering a more run-heavy offense under new OC Bill Lazor, the arrow on Hartline's outlook is pointing down. Mike Wallace will be a much better 2014 fantasy target.
137. Markus Wheaton -- Injuries, some on-field errors, and a slow start due to Oregon State's late graduation resulted in a quiet rookie season for the Steelers' 2013 third-round pick, but Wheaton's explosive college tape speaks for itself, and he flashed dynamic ability in his first preseason. With Emmanuel Sanders and Jerricho Cotchery both free agents, Sanders is set up to start opposite Antonio Brown in 2014. I would recommend targeting the 23-year-old in offseason Dynasty trades.
138. Andy Dalton -- 2013 owners of Dalton know his week-to-week performance was wildly hit or miss, but he finished the season with top-six quarterback stats and career highs almost across the board. Dalton is a candidate to be overdrafted in 2014, moving out of Jay Gruden's pass-first scheme and entering Hue Jackson's balanced to run-heavy attack. A limited talent surrounded by playmakers, Dalton's role is likely to be scaled back. He'll be more of a game manager under Hue.
139. Doug Baldwin -- Slot man Baldwin emerged as Russell Wilson's most reliable receiver in 2014, leading Seattle in postseason catches and receiving yards, and finishing the regular season with career bests in every counting stat (50-778-5). Baldwin is a really nice role player, but plays in an offense that doesn't cater to big receiving numbers and figures to lose playing time to a healthy Percy Harvin in 2014. Baldwin's ceiling is likely no better than WR3/4-caliber production.
140. Roy Helu -- New Redskins coach Jay Gruden was a big believer in skill-player rotations with Cincinnati, employing them at No. 2 receiver, tailback, and tight end. There is some reason to believe Helu's role could be expanded in 2014 at Alfred Morris' expense due in large part to Helu's superior pass-game chops. A plus talent with versatility, Helu at very worst will be worth drafting as a lottery ticket bench stash and/or Morris handcuff. Helu is averaging a respectable 4.26 YPC with 87 receptions through three NFL seasons. He's entering his contract year at age 25.
141. Jonathan Stewart -- Once among the NFL's most promising young running backs, Stewart is now one of football's most overpaid players. Owed nearly $8.4 million in salary and bonuses, Stewart will only return to the Panthers because they'd take an over $12 million cap penalty by cutting him this offseason. The injury-riddled 27-year-old will return in a timeshare with DeAngelo Williams and Mike Tolbert. He'd need a lot to go right to become startable in 2014 fantasy lineups.
142. Andre Roberts -- Although Roberts has never finished as a top-35 fantasy receiver, he's someone to monitor this offseason as a free agent unlikely to return to Arizona. A poor man's Antonio Brown, Roberts can play all over the formation and is still only 26 years old. He could push for WR3 value next season if he lands a starting job on a statistically receiver-friendly team.
143. Latavius Murray -- A size-speed freak out of UCF, Murray ran 4.39 at 6-foot-3, 223 pounds before missing his entire rookie season as a "redshirt" on injured reserve. Prior to the transaction, coach Dennis Allen singled out Murray's lack of "availability and accountability," and he was never seriously in the mix for carries. In a 2014 best-case scenario, the Raiders would let Murray and Marcel Reece duke it out for feature back duties. More likely, Oakland will re-sign Rashad Jennings to be its every-down back, keep Reece at fullback, and mix in Murray if he earns work.
144. DeAndre Hopkins -- Although his final stats (52-802-2) look decent on paper, Hopkins' rookie year was a disappointment. "Nuk" was benched in a November game and struggled with route running all season. He didn't score a touchdown from Week 8 on. Hopkins remains an interesting long-term prospect, but is unlikely to provide stable WR3 stats until Andre Johnson moves on. And that won't happen in 2014. Hopkins holds more Dynasty than re-draft value entering year two.
145. BenJarvus Green-Ellis -- Law Firm doesn't keep an NFL roster spot because he's a dynamic runner. He's a sub-average talent who lasts purely based on reliability, rarely fumbling and getting what's blocked between the tackles. Green-Ellis is questionable to return to Cincinnati with $2.5 million in salary and bonuses, and new OC Hue Jackson allegedly eyeballing free agent Darren McFadden. If released, Green-Ellis would likely generate very limited interest on the open market.
146. Nate Burleson -- Turning 33 before next season and owed a $5.5 million salary, Burleson will have to take a large pay cut to remain in Detroit. The Lions are likely to scale back their passing volume under new coach Jim Caldwell, boding poorly for their chances of supporting consistent fantasy pass catchers behind Calvin Johnson. Burleson will be a late pick with low upside in 2014.
147. Emmanuel Sanders -- Pursued by New England as a restricted free agent last offseason, Sanders instead played out his contract year with the team that drafted him, registering a career-best No. 33 fantasy receiver finish. Sanders still wasn't a particularly attractive start in any week, and his 2014 whereabouts are to-be-determined as an unrestricted free agent. We've seen Sanders' ceiling and it isn't very high. Perhaps his outlook will improve in another locale, but I'm not betting on it. Expect Markus Wheaton to take Sanders' old job in Pittsburgh.
148. Jerrel Jernigan -- Jernigan took off as the Giants' primary slot receiver down the stretch, notching stat lines of 7-67, 6-80-1, and 6-90-1 in the final three games. Owner John Mara went so far as to cite Jernigan's previous lack of involvement as a reason the G-Men forced OC Kevin Gilbride into retirement. Jernigan has a chance to open 2014 as New York's slot man if Victor Cruz moves outside, bookending Rueben Randle. New Giants OC Ben McAdoo hails from Green Bay and will likely run a three-receiver-based offense, giving Jernigan darkhorse WR3 appeal.
149. Ladarius Green -- Green could soar up this list if the Chargers' coaching staff drops pre-season hints that they'll commit to him as a featured pass catcher in 2014. Despite a basketball player's athleticism-size combination, Green was frequently utilized as a blocker in San Diego's 2013 offense, forcing defenses to play nickel and dime alignments to counter the Bolts' two-tight end sets. The Chargers ultimately evolved into a run-first team, "getting numbers" up front and earning a Wild Card berth. If employed as more of a pass-game weapon, Green is talented enough to pass Antonio Gates and emerge as Philip Rivers' No. 2 option behind Keenan Allen.
150. Justin Hunter -- Although Hunter's playing time was limited as a sub-package receiver, his big-play ability was evident down the stretch of his rookie season, twice topping 100 yards and finishing with a 19.7 YPR average with four touchdowns. Quarterback remains a big question mark in Nashville, but Hunter figures to rise up the depth chart in year two. Damian Williams and Kenny Britt are free agents, while Nate Washington ($4.8 million) may be a salary casualty.
151. Kenny Stills -- Turning in a highly efficient rookie season, Stills ranked 89th among receivers in targets but 47th in fantasy scoring, often playing ahead of Lance Moore and averaging an NFL-high 20.0 yards per catch. The Saints' No. 2 receiver position has rarely been a consistent source of box-score production, but that could change in 2014 if Moore is released and Stills nails down the job. Stills has serious big-play ability and excellent hands, dropping just one ball as a rookie.
152. Zach Ertz -- Ertz is another talented young player with sophomore-year breakout potential depending on his usage by the Eagles' coaching staff. Ertz is still raw as a blocker -- hurting his snap counts in Chip Kelly's run-first offense -- but creates favorable matchups with his height and fluid movement skills. He scored four touchdowns and averaged 13.0 yards per catch as a rookie, but only started twice. If Ertz improves as a blocker and forces Kelly to commit to him as an every-down tight end, he'll be a fantasy TE1. If not, expect more weekly ups and downs.
153. Rod Streater -- Streater paced the 2013 Raiders in catches (60) and receiving yards (888), but managed four touchdowns and just five games of 60-plus yards. A possession receiver on a bad team, Streater's odds seem long of a third-year breakout. Oakland's top three wideouts entering the offseason are Streater, Denarius Moore and Andre Holmes. They don't have a starting-caliber quarterback and play philosophically balanced offense under OC Greg Olson.
154. Danario Alexander -- An impending free agent, the wildly talented but even more injury prone Alexander tore his right ACL in an early-August practice and was waived/injured ten days later. Alexander is still only 25, but has undergone at least six known knee surgeries since his college career at Mizzou. His rehab and landing spot will both be worth monitoring during the offseason.
155. Rashard Mendenhall -- Essentially the BenJarvus Green-Ellis to Andre Ellington's Giovani Bernard this past season, Mendenhall battled numerous injuries en route to a career-low 3.17 YPC average. He did score eight touchdowns, salvaging minimal fantasy appeal. Mendenhall is now a free agent and won't be highly coveted. He'll likely be a stretch as a 2014 fantasy pick.
156. Marcel Reece -- Reece could soar up this list if the Raiders' coaching staff gave him a legit shot to replace free agents Darren McFadden and Rashad Jennings as the feature back, but the odds are against that. Despite a career 4.76 YPC average and December's 19-123-1 throttling of the Jets, OC Greg Olson has given no indications that he views Reece as more than a fullback and package-specific ball handler. Still, the 28-year-old is a player to monitor this offseason.
157. Tim Wright -- Wright ranked second on the Bucs in catches (54), receiving yards (571), and touchdown receptions (5) as an undrafted rookie, but was the box-score beneficiary of Mike Williams' year-ending injury, and may have lost his biggest organizational supporter when the Bucs fired college coach Greg Schiano. Wright's role is now up in the air under new OC Jeff Tedford. Wright is an undersized, catch-first tight end who may struggle for playing time in 2014.
158. Brandon LaFell -- Through four NFL seasons, free agent LaFell has failed to reach 50 receptions or 700 yards. Drop prone and short on playmaking ability, he's a below-average No. 2 receiver in the league. LaFell could become more interesting if he landed a starting job on a pass-first team with outstanding QB play. For now, LaFell should be viewed as a low-upside WR5.
159. Eddie Royal -- Royal's eight touchdowns from 2013 were an obvious fluke, as he scored five of them in the first two games before reverting to "the same old Eddie Royal" the rest of the way. Royal did bypass Vincent Brown on the late-season depth chart, and has a chance to open 2014 as San Diego's No. 2 receiver. Look for the Bolts to try to upgrade and expand Ladarius Green's pass-game usage. In all likelihood, 28-year-old Royal won't be worth a pick in re-draft leagues.
160. Da'Rick Rogers -- Despite a Brandon Marshallian skill set, Rogers fell out of last April's draft due to character concerns, and bounced from the Bills to the Colts before earning a prominent late-season role. He was demoted out of the starting lineup in favor of LaVon Brazill during the playoffs, however. The talent is there. The passion for football may or may not be. Rogers is going to need to make a big offseason leap to earn more snaps behind T.Y. Hilton and Reggie Wayne.
161. Carson Palmer -- Palmer finished 17th in fantasy quarterback scoring his first year under Bruce Arians, quietly setting a career high with 4,274 passing yards. Palmer obviously isn't going to get much better at age 34, and plays in a brutal division for pass defenses. He'll likely remain a middling fantasy QB2 in 2014, which would make Palmer borderline worthy of a fantasy draft pick.
162. Sam Bradford -- Before tearing his left ACL on October 20, Bradford was quietly on pace for career bests in passing yards (3,856) and TD-to-INT ratio (32:10). Despite a $14.015 million non-guaranteed salary, the Rams are sticking with Bradford as their 2014 quarterback and can give him a potent run game following the emergence of Zac Stacy. Look for St. Louis to ease in Bradford next season, operating in a balanced to run-heavy offense. He'll be a mid-range to low-end QB2.
163. Lance Moore -- Moore set four-year lows in catches (37), yards (457), and touchdowns (2) in his age-30 season, playing in a timeshare with more explosive Kenny Stills and streak-route specialist Robert Meachem behind Marques Colston. Moore will be 31 when next season starts and is owed $3.8 million in salary and bonuses. He's probably not coming back to New Orleans.
164. Michael Vick -- Vick lost his starting job to Nick Foles in Philadelphia and is now a free agent, although his public comments indicate Vick will likely return to the Eagles as Foles' backup. Vick has enough juice left in the tank to be a spot fantasy contributor, but probably not in a place like Oakland. His whereabouts will determine his outlook. Vick turns 34 years old this June.
165. Kendall Hunter -- Hunter enters his 2014 contract year with a career 4.59 YPC average but still entrenched behind Frank Gore for carries. The 49ers have given no indications that they see Hunter as more than a change-of-pace back. Still, Gore faded down the stretch of 2013 and turns 31 in May. LaMichael James has proven to be of no threat, but Marcus Lattimore could be an obstacle. Hunter is more likely to be a popular fantasy pick when he hits free agency in 2015.
166. Dwayne Allen -- Allen posted a 45-521-3 line as a 2012 rookie before suffering a year-ending hip injury in Week 1 of this past season. A do-it-all tight end, Allen is a plus blocker whose loss dealt a significant blow to first-year OC Pep Hamilton's run-first offensive design. Allen's injury is not expected to affect his 2014 health. He'll be a TE2 with back-end TE1 upside in year three.
167. Christine Michael -- Marshawn Lynch will return to Seattle in 2014, but the 28-year-old has averaged over 330 carries per year the past three seasons. Father Time remains undefeated. With explosive athleticism and bone-rattling power, Michael is the Seahawks' running back of the future and a premium Dynasty prospect. He averaged 4.83 YPC on 58 combined preseason and regular season carries as a second-round rookie, looking every bit the part of a future franchise back.
168. Sidney Rice -- Owed a non-guaranteed $8.5 million salary, Rice will be released into free agency after tearing his ACL last October. There is a chance getting out of Seattle's receiver-unfriendly offense could rejuvenate Rice, but it's unlikely. Now 27, Rice has had one good NFL season among seven, and it came with Brett Favre in 2009. In all likelihood, Rice is washed up.
169. Knile Davis -- Third-round rookie Davis turned in a pedestrian first NFL season, managing a combined 88-309-3.51-5 rushing line, including playoffs. Jamaal Charles is obviously locked in as Kansas City's offensive centerpiece, but Davis will be a worthwhile handcuff pick. Davis was better on special teams than offense in 2013, averaging 32.1 yards per kickoff return with a 108-yard score. As a runner, Davis possesses an ideal build and straight-line speed but lacks wiggle.
170. Jacquizz Rodgers -- The time to sell high on Rodgers' name value has passed, as observers now understand he's no more than a change-up back. He's not Maurice Jones-Drew. Averaging 3.64 yards on 247 career carries, Rodgers has settled in as a more effective real-life than fantasy player. He'll be a weak handcuff pick behind whomever Atlanta starts at running back in 2014.
171. Bilal Powell -- A replacement-level player, Powell played so many 2013 snaps because he was a better fit for Jets first-year OC Marty Mornhinweg's pass-oriented offense. It wasn't because Powell possesses starter's talent. Assuming Mike Goodson returns to New York, look for him and Powell to duke it out for passing-back work behind two-down thumper Chris Ivory. Powell won't be worth a fantasy draft pick, and I wouldn't get my hopes up for the 25-year-old in Dynasty leagues.
172. Zach Miller -- Once a low-end fantasy starter in Oakland, Miller has finished 43rd, 29th, and 21st in tight end scoring through three seasons in Seattle. The Seahawks' run-dominated offense kills Miller's fantasy appeal. He's signed through 2015 and turned 28 in December. 2013 fifth-round pick Luke Willson is a more intriguing long-term prospect on Seattle's roster at tight end.
173. Jared Cook -- Cook was a dud his first season in St. Louis, partially because his skill set doesn't lend itself to high-volume receiving, and partially because Sam Bradford was lost for the season seven games in. Despite statistical career highs across the board, Cook hit 50-plus yards in just 2-of-16 contests. In a pathetic year for tight ends beyond the top producers, Cook still finished 11th in scoring at his position. Even with Bradford back, Cook is no better than a TE2.
174. Rob Housler -- An athletic but injury-prone 26-year-old (in March) tight end, Housler has yet to play a full 16-game schedule entering his fourth season and was a rotational player in Bruce Arians' primarily three-receiver attack. Housler can run, but doesn't do other things particularly well. He might reach his potential in another locale, but is signed with Arizona for one more year.
175. Ahmad Bradshaw -- Bradshaw was placed on injured reserve in October after undergoing surgery on his neck. Late in the year, he told reporters he was already back to 100%. Bradshaw turns 28 in March, but the off time could do his chronically injured feet some good. Still effective when healthy, Bradshaw has topped 4.5 YPC in consecutive seasons. He's now a free agent.
176. Joseph Fauria -- Utilized almost strictly as a red-zone package player by Detroit's outgoing coaching staff, undrafted rookie Fauria parlayed 18 receptions into a whopping seven TDs, an obviously unsustainable rate. Still, Fauria is intriguing because he excels at high-pointing passes and Brandon Pettigrew is a free agent. The odds are against Fauria returning TE1 value in 2014, but it isn't out of the question. He'll have to improve dramatically as a blocker to earn more snaps.
177. Denard Robinson -- Converted Michigan quarterback Robinson endured an expectedly slow rookie season, falling behind Jordan Todman and Justin Forsett on Jacksonville's tailback depth chart en route to a 20-66-0 rushing line without a reception. Maurice Jones-Drew is a free agent, however, and "Shoelace" could emerge as a '14 sleeper should he make major offseason strides. Strictly as a runner, I thought Robinson had similarities to Chris Johnson coming out of college.
178. Mikel Leshoure -- Leshoure's Dynasty owners should be hoping for an offseason trade out of Detroit, which the 13-time healthy scratch has publicly requested. Turning 24 years old in March, Leshoure has a poor man's Marshawn Lynch skill set with fresh legs after just two 2013 carries.
179. Johnathan Franklin -- Before last April's draft, Franklin was my No. 2 running back prospect based on college tape, behind only teammate Eddie Lacy. Franklin was obviously much slower to get involved in Green Bay's offense and landed on injured reserve with a November concussion. Franklin's most promising effort occurred in Week 3 against the Bengals' top-five run defense, ripping off 103 yards and a touchdown on 13 carries with three catches for 23 more yards. I don't think Franklin is a big threat to Lacy's 2014 carries, but I do think he has starting-caliber talent if called upon, and should be a strong Lacy handcuff assuming free agent James Starks walks.
180. Santonio Holmes -- A surefire salary cap casualty, Holmes was healthy enough to play on 76% of the snaps over the Jets' final four 2013 games. Whether Holmes is capable of a career resurgence, in my opinion, is entirely up to him. He still flashes game-breaking ability from time to time. Turning 30 in March, Holmes will likely generate one-year offers without guaranteed money. I would think reuniting with receiver-needy Rams OC Brian Schottenheimer is a small possibility.
181. Mike Tolbert -- Carolina's designated red-zone back scored seven all-purpose touchdowns in 2013 but managed just 128 touches all season and was used infrequently between the 20s. As DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart are both expected to return in 2014, Tolbert's role is unlikely to change. He'll be worth a look in especially deep leagues but few 12- and 14-teamers.
182. Stephen Hill -- The single least efficient wide receiver in football, Hill ranked 102nd of 105 qualifiers in Pro Football Focus' 2012 "catch rate" (45.7%) metric, and 100th (47.1%) in 2013. In addition to ongoing knee problems, Hill plays without physicality and is all too often boxed out by defensive backs in contested situations. He's a straight-line speedster who doesn't go get the ball. Hill's remaining glimmers of hope are his age (23 in April), jets (4.28), and height-weight (6'4/215).
183. Robert Woods -- Woods' outlook would receive a major boost if the Bills cut ties with Stevie Johnson, who butted heads with first-year coach Doug Marrone and is owed $5.675 million in 2014. A quick-footed possession receiver, Woods would otherwise be a low-upside WR5 fantasy pick after a 40-587-3 rookie season with disappointing E.J. Manuel returning at quarterback.
184. Khiry Robinson -- A 2013 undrafted free agent out of West Texas A&M, Robinson's role grew as his rookie year progressed, and he quietly led New Orleans in Divisional round carries (13-57-1). In conversations with Sean Payton mentor Bill Parcells, The Tuna allegedly compared Robinson to Curtis Martin. The Saints' pass-happy offense and deep running back stable remain 2014 obstacles, but Robinson's arrow is pointing up. He needs Mark Ingram to go away.
185. Chris Givens -- Givens looked ready for takeoff in a big-play-filled 2013 preseason before eating dirt in the real games, taking steps back in catches (34), yards (569), and touchdowns (0) despite starting 13-of-16 appearances. Givens may be best suited for a third-receiver, situational deep threat role. To date, there are no reasons to think he's more than a streak-route specialist.
186. Jeremy Kerley -- A low-upside slot receiver, Kerley annually seems to find his way onto the weekly fantasy radar. He's a reliable fourth-year player with whom Geno Smith always played much better when healthy in 2013. Kerley, 25, has settled in as an annual WR3/4 in PPR leagues.
187. Kenbrell Thompkins -- Predictably, Thompkins didn't come close to meeting expectations attached to his seventh-round draft-time ADP, losing his starting job after an unproductive seven-game run and going catch-less in each of New England's final six games, including the playoffs. I'm still holding Thompkins in one deep Dynasty league, but may wind up dropping him next fall.
188. James Starks -- Starks is a free agent coming off a season where he led all NFL rushers in yards-per-carry average (5.54) among players with at least 80 attempts. Also experienced in the passing game, 28-year-old Starks has an outside chance at landing a starting job this spring.
189. Anthony Dixon -- I'm stashing Dixon in some Dynasty leagues just to see what happens. A Michael Bush-type talent, Dixon's rookie contract is up, and the 49ers aren't going to re-sign him with Kendall Hunter, Marcus Lattimore, and LaMichael James behind Frank Gore. 26 years old, Dixon has an outside chance to enter some team's training camp competing for a starting job.
190. Jake Locker -- A maddeningly streaky passer with top-notch tools but zero consistency, Locker's future is up in the air after the Titans' coaching change. New HC Ken Whisenhunt has been adamantly noncommittal on Locker, who surely will have to compete to keep his starting job, assuming he even gets that much rope. He's still a young (26 in June) player to keep monitoring. In seven 2013 starts, Locker set career bests in completion rate (60.7) and won-loss record (4-3). He has a big arm, and 502 yards with four touchdowns on 73 career rushing attempts (6.88 YPC).
191. Toby Gerhart -- I've seen some hype on Gerhart as a 2014 free agent, and I'm not buying in. I don't think any NFL team will target him as a starter. Turning 27 in March, Gerhart's 7.9 YPC average from 2013 is awfully fluky considering his 3.4 clip from the season before on a bigger sample size. Gerhart is a hard-charging, fairly versatile backup type, and likely nothing more.
192. Chris Polk -- I think there is some reason to believe Bryce Brown could land on the offseason trade block because he's not a great fit for Chip Kelly's offense. That would set up versatile Polk to be LeSean McCoy's 2014 handcuff. No slouch, the former undrafted free agent has 98 yards and three touchdowns on 11 career carries (8.9 YPC). Polk is a dependable, low-upside back.
193. Harry Douglas -- Douglas' 2013 "breakout" (85-1,067-2) will have to be taken with a grain of salt as it pertains to 2014 because it came as a result of debilitating injuries to Roddy White, and Julio Jones' 11 missed games. Still, Douglas could flirt with WR3 value if Atlanta commits to more three-receiver sets in order to offset the loss of Tony Gonzalez. Douglas turns 30 next September.
194. Joe Flacco -- We've pretty well established what Flacco is entering his seventh NFL season at age 29. He's finished above fantasy QB14 once in six years, and ranked a lowly 19th in quarterback scoring this past season despite a career-high 614 pass attempts. The "leap" isn't happening. Flacco could still be a steady QB2 if the Ravens upgrade his line and weapons.
195. Benny Cunningham -- A 2013 undrafted rookie from Middle Tennessee State, Cunningham quietly led the NFL in yards per carry (5.55) among rushers with at least 45 attempts. Ahead of Isaiah Pead and Daryl Richardson, Cunningham is the favorite to be Zac Stacy's 2014 handcuff.
196. Nate Washington -- Going on age 31 and owed a $4.8 million salary, Washington is a virtual lock to be released as the Titans attempt to create more snaps for 2013 second-round pick Justin Hunter. Washington would have to land in an absolute ideal playing-time situation with a top quarterback to achieve WR3 value in '14. He's just barely worth holding in deep Dynasty leagues.
197. Marlon Brown -- A 2013 undrafted rookie out of Georgia, Brown flashed a homeless man's Anquan Boldin skill set en route to a 49-524-7 line in his first NFL season, appearing in 14 games and starting 12. He played both slot and outside receiver, but wasn't good enough that Brown will enter 2014 locked into a starting job. I like him better as a Dynasty than 2014 re-draft prospect.
198. Marquise Goodwin -- Goodwin was the most explosive Bills offensive skill-position player with C.J. Spiller banged up throughout 2013, averaging 16.6 yards with three touchdowns on 17 receptions. To realize his fantasy potential, Goodwin needs much better quarterback play from E.J. Manuel and for the Bills to commit to him in a more prominent role. He finished fourth among Buffalo wide receivers in snaps played, behind Robert Woods, T.J. Graham, and Stevie Johnson.
199. LaVon Brazill -- A rotational receiver for most of 2013, Brazill finally earned a major playing-time bump in the playoffs and delivered stat lines of 4-54 and 2-73-2. He played 70.0% of Indy's postseason snaps. Brazill is an exciting talent capable of winning at the intermediate and deep levels, but he's likely to resume a reserve, sub-package role in 2014. T.Y. Hilton can't be removed from the starting lineup, and all signs point to Reggie Wayne returning despite his 2013 ACL tear.
200. Leonard Hankerson -- HankTime was on pace for career highs in catches (48), yards (600), and touchdowns (5) before tearing his ACL and LCL on November 17. Washington is expected to make upgrading No. 2 receiver a priority this offseason, leaving Hankerson with an uncertain 2014 role. Through three NFL seasons, Hankerson has shown limited separation skills, and isn't a ball snatcher in the air. Rehabbing his knee at age 25, Hankerson's Dynasty value has hit a new low.
Also Received Consideration: Brian Hoyer, Mike James, Robert Turbin, Greg Little, Brian Quick, Andrew Hawkins, Ryan Griffin, Edwin Baker, Brandon Gibson, Miles Austin, Marcedes Lewis, Jermichael Finley, Dexter McCluster, Jordan Todman, Jermaine Gresham, Tyler Eifert, Brandon Pettigrew, Anthony Fasano, Mike Goodson, Daniel Thomas, Chris Ogbonnaya, Marcus Lattimore, Andre Holmes, Kenny Britt, Vincent Brown, Cole Beasley, Malcom Floyd, Ryan Broyles.