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The Shy-Away Top 40

Evan Silva analyzes the matchups for every fantasy-relevant player in Week 12

We've seen each team play a preseason game or two while closely monitoring camp reports on every skill-position player in the NFL. The recommendations in this column are inherently negative (see title), but based on the facts we've gleaned, represent an informed and reasoned projection.

This isn't a list of overvalued players, necessarily, or projected busts. Those can be found in the 2015 Fantasy Football Draft Guide. This is a list of players I think you should consider approaching with extreme caution or even scratching off your cheatsheets based on the way they're currently priced in the fantasy community. They're guys I think you might want to consider drafting around.

1. LeSean McCoy

Let's forgive McCoy for his disappointing 2014 for a moment. McCoy is transitioning from an Eagles team that last year led the NFL in play volume to a Bills offense overseen by Greg Roman, whose 2011-2014 49ers units ranked 24th, 30th, 31st, and 20th in offensive plays. Although Roman and Rex Ryan's Ground-N-Pound backgrounds might seemingly bode well for McCoy's carry total, Shady's usage is actually likely to decline based on the molasses-slow pace of Roman's scheme. Roman also showed an aversion to funneling his tailbacks targets in San Francisco; Frank Gore entered Roman's tenure averaging nearly four receptions per game from 2006 to 2010. On Roman's watch, Gore averaged just over one catch per game.

Whether it be due to a toe injury or physical decline, McCoy showed symptoms of breakdown last season. He still juked well laterally, but consistently failed to beat defenders to the edge, and has never been a physical tackle breaker inside. McCoy's yards-per-carry average dipped by nearly a full yard, while he lost red-zone work to Chris Polk and even diminutive Darren Sproles late in the season. On a quarterback-less Bills team, McCoy's touchdowns are unlikely to jump significantly, and his rushing attempts and receptions project to disappoint as well.

McCoy battled recurring toe problems early in camp. After Tuesday's hamstring strain, it might be time to scratch McCoy off your cheatsheet altogether.

2. Victor Cruz

This one's simple. I'm shying away from Cruz with a singular datapoint in mind: A severe injury he suffered in Week 6 last season called a ruptured patellar tendon. These are all the NFL players I could come up with that have suffered ruptured patellar tendons in recent years:

Bucs RB Cadillac Williams, Eagles FS Nate Allen, Colts WR Austin Collie, Eagles RB Correll Buckhalter, Falcons OT Sam Baker, Vikings WR Greg Childs, Lions DE Jason Jones, Cowboys RB Ryan Williams, Cowboys CB Morris Claiborne, Browns CB Gary Baxter, Titans LB Gerald McRath, Bucs OG Davin Joseph.

Not many success stories there.

Camp reports have been positive on Cruz, but that was expected. I think the Giants would do well to get Cruz back as a low-volume possession receiver. I'm betting against Cruz returning as a fantasy asset, probably for the rest of his career.

3. Bishop Sankey

At surface level, Sankey's eighth-/ninth-round Average Draft Position seems reasonable-bordering-on stealing as a theoretical all-purpose back who's projected to open the season as a starter. I try to aim a bit higher than Sankey with my middle-round picks, though. Sankey best projects as a committee back on a bad team that will frequently play offense in catch-up mode, preventing any of their individual rushers from piling up a high volume of carries.

And Sankey isn't as versatile as he's commonly billed. Coach Ken Whisenhunt has locked in Dexter McCluster as Tennessee's designated passing-down specialist after Sankey graded out 53rd among 57 qualified backs in PFF's 2014 pass-protection charts. Combined with McCluster's specialized role, Sankey's inability to pick up the blitz will cost him playing time on the majority of passing downs.

Then there's the question of Sankey's early-down role, which is threatened by between-the-tackles grinders David Cobb and Antonio Andrews. Neither Cobb nor Andrews offers flash or long speed, but it's reasonable to believe at least one could emerge as a superior option to carry the mail on first and second down. Cobb certainly looked better than Sankey in Tennessee's preseason opener. Sankey is a hesitant, often indecisive runner who averaged 3.48 yards per carry over the Titans' final 12 games as a rookie.

Sankey is not yet 23 years old, and it's within the realm of possibility that he'll get better and take a step forward in his second year. But in all likelihood, Sankey is going to be a rotational back in a low-scoring offense. There are stronger swings in the seventh through ninth rounds of drafts.

4. Andre Ellington

Coachspeak has an impact. It definitely drives ADP. And when coach Bruce Arians announced a few weeks ago that Ellington would handle 20 touches a game this year, Ellington's ADP was all but solidified. He doesn't get past the fourth round in drafts.

Arians' coachspeak is believable in that Ellington averaged 22 touches a game before hitting I.R. in Week 13 of last season. Arians' coachspeak is unbelievable in that Ellington collapsed beneath that unsustainable workload, his YPC average dipping by more than two full yards from the season prior while picking up foot, sports hernia, and hip injuries over the course of the year. Considering the timing of Ellington's preseason foot injury, he essentially broke down before the season even began. Arians' coachspeak is also unbelievable in that the Cardinals invested a third-round pick into David Johnson -- a bigger, more athletic version of Ellington -- before signing Chris Johnson, another similarly-skilled back.

The team's actions speak loudly here, and on Tuesday Arians formally opened the Cardinals' starting running back job to competition.

This season, algorithm-based Sports Injury Predictor forecasts Ellington as the NFL's most-likely running back to get injured, setting Ellington's chances of missing time at 90%. Ellington is an ineffective between-the-tackles runner, and the Cardinals regularly pulled him out of the game in red-zone situations last season. Per Arians, FB/RB Robert Hughes will serve as Arizona's short-yardage back in 2015.

Ellington proponents chalk up his diminished 2014 effectiveness to the injuries, but Ellington remains as high an injury risk as any back in football. Ellington is best suited to serve as a committee member, and the Cardinals' running back moves suggest they agree. Not a touchdown scorer and now certain to lose volume, Ellington is a player to avoid where he's currently valued by the community.

5. Zach Ertz

Ertz came out of Stanford as an NFL-ready pass catcher. He took a step forward as a potential three-down player in 2014, grading out as Pro Football Focus' No. 6 overall run-blocking tight end among 67 qualifiers. Ertz struggled in pass protection, however, and played only 50.2% of the Eagles' offensive snaps. Starter Brent Celek played nearly 70% of the snaps and graded out as PFF's No. 2 overall run-blocking tight end.

Ertz clearly has a higher ceiling, but Celek is preferred by the coaching staff on a team that utilizes three-receiver sets as its base formation. The Eagles have been running a three-receiver offense throughout training camp. Chip Kelly uses two tight ends in some packages, but Philadelphia is predominately a one-tight end team. Ertz would effectively have to "beat out" Celek to become a near-full-time player. That's not happening, especially after Ertz underwent groin surgery on August 14.

I absolutely believe Ertz would take off if Celek got hurt. I also believe there's a chance Kelly eventually embraces two-tight end sets as a big part of his offense, with Ertz and Celek on the field together and Jordan Matthews and Nelson Agholor at wideout. I'm leaving the door open for Ertz to become an every-week fantasy starter late this year.

But those are a lot of "ifs." Ertz needs to catch breaks to go from a borderline TE1 to a truly useful one. There are tight ends in similar situations available later in drafts; talented tight ends who could "hit" if the right scenario unfolds. I'm more willing to gamble a deeper double-digit-round selection on that happening for Tyler Eifert, Austin Seferian-Jenkins, or Kyle Rudolph than to pay the price for Ertz at his ninth-/tenth-round ADP slot.

6. Carlos Hyde

Although there are rare exceptions to this principle, you generally don't want to draft running backs on bad teams. The 49ers' Vegas Win Total dipped to 6.5 even before they lost Aldon Smith, very arguably the best player left on their roster. From the coaching staff on down, San Francisco's offseason losses were staggering and are likely to prove devastating. To surprise retirements, free agency, injuries, and personality conflicts, this team lost an extraordinary amount of talent and leadership. The 49ers are a dysfunctional organization in utter disarray.

Hyde is two-down back on a team that may spend most of 2015 playing from behind, which could result in extended playing time for passing-game specialists Reggie Bush and Kendall Hunter. How good is Hyde, really? His athletic profile is similar to Shonn Greene, and Hyde was able to wrest a mere six touches per game from 31-year-old Frank Gore as a rookie. If the 49ers' defense took the worst of the offseason losses, the offensive line wasn't far behind. Gone to Arizona, LG Mike Iupati was Pro Football Focus' No. 2 run-blocking guard last season, behind only Baltimore's Marshal Yanda. "Retired" RT Anthony Davis was a top-13 run-blocking tackle among 84 qualifiers. Starting C Daniel Kilgore is recovering from ankle and fibula surgeries, and won't be ready for Week 1.

Even if Hyde is good -- and it's worth wondering whether he is -- his situation has frustration written all over it. In fantasy drafts, let another owner take the leap of faith on Hyde. He may need to be a genuinely transcendent talent to overcome all the deficiencies around him.

7. Joique Bell

Name any potential red flag on a fantasy back and Bell's got it. 29 years old, Bell is at or near the age where running backs tend to fall off career cliffs. Bell has been ineffective, averaging 3.88 yards per carry the past two years. Bell has medical flags; he underwent a knee surgery last offseason before having knee and Achilles' operations this past winter and being unavailable for Lions camp to this point. Bell has major competition in the form of playmaking second-round pick Ameer Abdullah, in addition to passing-game specialist Theo Riddick and impressive UDFA Zach Zenner. Bell is in danger of quickly becoming an old, banged-up, and inefficient member of a possible three-man committee.

Bell is still the favorite for goal-line carries in a potent Lions offense, and the TDs alone could propel him toward top-24 fantasy value. But Bell's upside has been zapped, and Lions observers are already calling for the team to start Abdullah.

Bell should be avoided in favor of these higher-ceiling backs being drafted near or behind him: Chris Ivory, Tevin Coleman, LeGarrette Blount, Abdullah, Rashad Jennings, Shane Vereen.

8. Roddy White

Although there were bumps in the road, White wound up paying fantasy dividends in 2014, posting an 80-921-7 receiving line despite missing two games. The counting numbers look good on paper, but White's game is fading. White ranked 103rd of 110 qualified wide receivers in PFF's yards after catch per reception statistic (2.3), while nagging injuries haunted him for a second straight season. Beat writers have hinted White is getting outplayed by Leonard Hankerson at Falcons camp.

At the beginning of camp, White revealed he is experiencing recurring issues in his left knee. He needed the knee drained before June minicamp, and expects it to be drained again during the season. "My cartilage in my knee is not smooth," White admitted. "It's kind of rippled. You can elect to have surgery, but I just decided not to because I'm not a surgery guy. I just don't want to do it. They gave me the option two years ago to have surgery. They said they would have to slice off the top of my cartilage, and I was like, 'I don't want to do that.'"

The age cliff can be devastating for old wide receivers. White seems primed to fall right off of it.

9. Michael Floyd

Floyd was Arizona's least-productive receiver in Carson Palmer's six 2014 starts, posting a 16-game pace line of 45-693-5 on 80 targets. Larry Fitzgerald's pace was 85-1,288-5 on 109 targets in Palmer's starts, while John Brown's was 53-840-8 on 104 targets. The Cardinals made no real effort to push the ball Floyd's way, instead employing him as a high-volatility deep threat whose targets were sent far downfield and difficult to catch. In the offseason, there were rumors the Cards dangled Floyd in trade talks.

While Fitzgerald got healthy and Brown continued to hone his close bond with Palmer, Floyd suffered a major hand injury in the first week of training camp, dislocating three fingers so severely that they broke through the skin on his palm. Media reports only have Floyd missing 3-5 weeks, but coach Bruce Arians deemed the injury "unique" with no real precedent from which to work when forecasting a return timetable. Outside medical opinions envision Floyd as doubtful for Week 1.

When Floyd does return, it's more than a little bit conceivable that Brown will have supplanted him for good on the depth chart. As Floyd will end up losing so much practice time, it's unlikely his role and the way the Cardinals use him will change.

Don't bet on Floyd becoming a reliable WR3 this season, let alone a WR2. He'll likely remain a volatile, unreliable WR3/4 option. Brown is a far-better bet to break out.

10. Marques Colston

Lots of offseason fantasy articles have pegged Colston as a value pick in a Saints offense that lost 335 passing-game targets from last year. The opportunity for a step forward looks to be there. I'm just not sure the opportunity automatically goes to Colston. The Saints are intrigued by a number of younger wideouts on their roster and showed signs of souring on Colston last year. The only reason Colston is back with the Saints is because he agreed to a whopping $3.2 million pay cut. As another part of the reduction, Colston sliced his 2016 salary from $7.7 million to $3.2 million.

Colston's role was reduced by Sean Payton last year. Dropping eight passes, Colston also saw the second fewest targets of his career despite playing all 16 games and in an offense that led the NFC in pass attempts while dealing with injuries to Brandin Cooks, Jimmy Graham, and pass-catching specialist Pierre Thomas. It's not a stretch to say Colston was one of the least effective receivers in the NFL. He ranked 100th among 110 qualifiers in PFF's overall wideout grades, also blocking poorly. At Saints camp, Cooks, Brandon Coleman, Nick Toon, and Willie Snead are on the rise. Payton has openly compared Coleman to Colston in terms of skill set, and it shouldn't surprise anyone if Coleman soon begins eating into Colston's snaps.

Colston is a declining, 32-year-old role player with a low-end WR3 ceiling. As Colston's ADP begins to creep into round nine, be sure to aim higher with your single-digit-round picks.


11. Devonta Freeman

I was a fan of Freeman coming out of Florida State. I thought he had nifty moves and short-area quickness, and he was arguably the best pass protector in the 2014 running back class. Sometimes our eyes from watching game film deceive us, however. The game looked too big for Freeman as an NFL rookie.

Freeman was not an effective pass blocker last season, coughing up two sacks and four hits on Matt Ryan in only 33 pass-protection snaps. Freeman averaged 3.82 yards per carry and failed to separate himself from Atlanta's ugly four-man backfield that also included Steven Jackson (out of NFL), Jacquizz Rodgers (minimum free-agent deal in Chicago), and pint-sized speed demon Antone Smith. The Falcons proceeded to use a third-round pick on Tevin Coleman, a 4.39 burner who lit up the Big Ten and impressed in pass protection on Indiana tape.

Freeman stands 5-foot-8, 206 and demonstrated sub-par athleticism at the 2014 Combine, running 4.58 in the forty with an underwhelming 9-foot-10 broad jump, a metric that measures lower-body burst and explosion. Freeman's vertical was also poor at 31 1/2 inches.

Until proven otherwise -- and I wouldn't hold my breath -- Freeman is best viewed both in real life and fantasy as a role-player committee back who will come off the field in red-zone situations because he struggles to move the chains between the tackles. Freeman has a very limited ceiling in terms of workload and touchdown potential. He may be incorporated into the Falcons' offense for the entire season, but will probably never emerge as more than a desperate flex play in bye-week crunches.

12. Coby Fleener

T.Y. Hilton has a brand-new $65 million contract and will be an every-down player in the Colts' offense. That's one. The Colts signed Andre Johnson to a three-year, $21 million deal. He's playing pretty much every down. That's two. The Colts signed Frank Gore. That's three. Andrew Luck is the quarterback. That's four. The Colts will use five offensive linemen. That's nine. Their offensive line is weak and Dwayne Allen is easily Indy's best blocking tight end. That's ten.

NFL rules prohibit teams from lining up more than 11 players on the field at once. There is one spot open for a player to become a major part of OC Pep Hamilton's offense, although that one up-for-grabs job could also be filled on a rotational basis. Fleener is in the mix. As is first-round pick Phillip Dorsett. Donte Moncrief is another option, coming off a promising rookie year.

How many snaps will Fleener play? Probably a lot if Hilton, Andre, Allen, or even Dorsett gets injured. But if all those guys are healthy, Fleener is going to be an up-and-down situational player. Fleener makes sense as a TE2 or TE3 in best-ball leagues. He'll be a re-draft headache.

13. Giovani Bernard

A change-of-pace back stationed behind one of the league's top young runners, Bernard's ADP currently hovers in the fifth and sixth rounds. While Bernard proponents note that he averaged 13.3 touches over Cincinnati's final six regular season games, those numbers lack context. After returning from collarbone and hip injuries, Bernard had 17 carries in Week 12 against the Texans, but averaged 2.65 YPC and never saw that much work again. Bernard did pile up 15 carries in Week 15 against the Browns, but that was a 30-0 rout where Jeremy Hill went bananas (25-148-2) and Gio primarily played in garbage time. Bernard saw 10 or fewer carries in each of Cincinnati's other final five games, including the Bengals' playoff loss to Indy. Although Bernard is commonly viewed as a PPR asset, he caught more than three passes in just two of those last seven games.

Gio is generally perceived as a dynamic playmaker. But how good is Gio, really? Early last year, Bernard struggled to move the chains before breaking down physically on an increased workload. Through two NFL seasons, Bernard has failed to beat out BenJarvus Green-Ellis, then lost his starting job to a rookie. Bernard has failed to clear 4.0 YPC in 13 of his last 18 games dating back to 2013, averaging 3.63 YPC over that stretch. Bernard isn't an effective between-the-tackles runner. Will he dominate passing-down work? I'm not so sure. Hill is a terrific passing-game back in his own right, grading out 18th among 62 qualified backs in PFF's pass-block efficiency metric and securing 27-of-31 targets (87.1%), averaging 8.0 yards per catch. Bernard graded out 48th in pass-block efficiency and caught 51-of-64 targets (79.7%), averaging 8.1 yards per catch.

Gio has a place in the NFL, but it's as a scatback and occasional passing-game package player. In Shane Vereen (7th round), Devonta Freeman (8th/9th round), Duke Johnson (9th/10th round), Danny Woodhead (10th round), Reggie Bush (10th/11th round), and Roy Helu (13th round), you can get guys just like that at much-cheaper prices.

14. Drew Brees

You know the narrative by now: The Saints spent their offseason upgrading on defense and the offensive line. They traded away Jimmy Graham. They're obviously becoming a run-first team. I tend to doubt the final point there, though do buy that coach Sean Payton will attempt to play more ball-control football as much as in-game flow allows.

What worries me less than Brees' pass attempts is his targets. Someone named Willie Snead IV is reportedly leading Saints camp in catches. Tight end Ben Watson -- who turns 35 later this year and has once in his 11-year career hit 50 catches -- looks heavily involved in the offense. Some in the fantasy community are touting Marques Colston as a value pick. Yes, the same declining Colston whose role was reduced last season due to ineffectiveness. 5-foot-10, 189-pound Brandin Cooks is expected to all of a sudden become the Saints' No. 1 receiver. The team is looking at people named Nick Toon and Brandon Coleman to play prominent roles. Top pass-catching back C.J. Spiller recently underwent knee surgery.

Give me some stat projections for the Saints' pass catchers. I bet you'll have a tough time coming up with 30 touchdown passes.

15. Kelvin Benjamin

Assuming Wednesday's knee scare turns out to be only that, Benjamin is a solid bet to help fantasy owners win some weeks this season. My problem is wholly with his ADP. Currently selected at the third-/fourth-round turn, Benjamin is going ahead of DeAndre Hopkins, Jordan Matthews, Andre Johnson, DeSean Jackson, Brandon Marshall, and Allen Robinson, all of whom I believe have a great shot to outproduce Benjamin.

Benjamin was a raging steal where fantasy owners drafted him last year, finishing his rookie year as the overall WR16. Benjamin's sub-par on-field performance was masked by extreme volume, however. He finished sixth in the NFL in targets, but 101st among 110 qualifiers in PFF's catch-rate metric, 102nd in yards after catch per reception, and second in the league in dropped passes. Four of Benjamin's nine touchdowns occurred with Carolina trailing by 24-plus points.

Benjamin's seasonal stats were also buoyed by Derek Anderson. In Anderson's two starts -- which encompassed 12.5% of the season -- Benjamin posted stat lines of 6-92-1 and 8-104, accounting for 17.5% of his PPR production. Cam Newton is an at-times dominant physical talent, but his inefficient passing will always render his pass catchers inefficient.

Benjamin is very likely to remain an inefficient producer this season, and his targets are going to drop. The Panthers traded the Nos. 57, 89, and 201 picks in order to draft Devin Funchess in the second round. Greg Olsen returns as Newton's 1B weapon, while Carolina's defense will be better, cutting down on team pass attempts. I think Benjamin will improve as a player in his second year, but I think his fantasy stats will take a step back.

16. Joseph Randle

A fifth-round pick in the 2013 draft, Randle had all the appearances of a fringe NFL player during his rookie season. He runs 4.63 at 6-foot, 204. Randle averaged 3.04 YPC on a 54-carry sample in his first NFL campaign, posting anemic rushing lines of 19-65-0 and 14-26-0 in two midseason spot starts.

Randle seemingly showed improved burst in his second training camp and capitalized on his 51 regular season carries while upping his per-tote average to 6.73 as a lightly-used change-of-pace back behind then-Cowboys offensive steam engine DeMarco Murray. Randle also lost two fumbles on minimal attempts, however, and played a measly four snaps in Dallas' two playoff games, touching the ball twice.

Randle currently appears to be in a great situation, but there is little evidence suggesting he's a legitimate NFL feature back. His stat lines in four career games of double-digit carries are 13-37-0, 11-17-1, 19-65-0, and 14-26-0, "good" for a combined 2.54 yards-per-carry average. Randle remains deficient in the passing game and will likely come off the field in third-down, two-minute, and passing-down situations in favor of Lance Dunbar. Owner Jerry Jones is adamant Darren McFadden will play a prominent role.

The Cowboys' line and offense as a whole are good. I'm not sure Randle is. Although I do think Randle is worth the risk toward the middle of round four in 12-team leagues, I'm not willing to pay his current third-round price to find out.

17. Sammy Watkins

I definitely believe Watkins is a good talent. I don't think that's in doubt. When he's 100% healthy, Watkins combines the strengths of Torrey Smith and Pierre Garcon with an ability to make plays after the catch and beat defenses over the top. Unfortunately, good talents can go to waste in bad situations. Watkins is in a very bad situation.

The Bills don't know who their quarterback is. We do know their quarterback won't be good. Under run-heavy minds Rex Ryan and Greg Roman, Buffalo will play Ground-N-Pound football with an inefficient, low-volume passing game where Charles Clay, Robert Woods, and Percy Harvin siphon away targets that are easiest to catch. Getting Watkins the ball downfield on a consistent basis won't be in the cards. And with arguably the NFL's most talented defense, the Bills indeed have the correct personnel to pull off a "hide-the-passing-game" strategy.

Watkins is a good enough player to overcome his situation on a sporadic basis. He should mix in some big games and is a worthy fifth- or sixth-round pick in best-ball leagues. Watkins is going to be a frustrating re-draft player until the Bills find some semblance of competency under center.

18. Matt Ryan

After seven NFL seasons, Ryan has become overrated in fantasy but underrated in real life, if that's a possibility. He's an NFL franchise quarterback, but has never been a statistical difference maker, and nor does Ryan elevate the production of his teammates.

Ryan has never before in his career finished above the fantasy QB7 overall. He has one 30-touchdown season on his resume. The Falcons' offensive line is below average at best, while Ryan's weaponry is a major question mark beyond Julio Jones. Roddy White will be 34 soon and has a balky knee. 30-year-old journeyman Jacob Tamme looks to have the edge on 28-year-old journeyman Tony Moeaki for tight end duties.

Last year, JJ Zachariason and Denny Carter did a weekly radio segment on Sirius XM Fantasy. Each week, they chose a waiver-wire quarterback (under 25% owned) to start as a "streamer." Their streamers consisted of the likes of Josh McCown, Kirk Cousins, Blake Bortles, and Ryan Fitzpatrick. Combined, Zachariason and Carter's streamer quarterbacks outscored Ryan in seasonal fantasy points. Ryan is the definition of a replacement-level fantasy quarterback.

Ryan does have a soft schedule and will undoubtedly mix in a few big games. But Ryan isn't worth anything close to his seventh-round re-draft ADP when you can get Eli Manning, Ryan Tannehill, Philip Rivers, and Sam Bradford multiple rounds later. (Eli, by the way, has a better schedule than Ryan.)

Or -- like Denny and JJ did -- you could just pick up quarterbacks off the waiver wire, stream them weekly, and outscore the guy in your league who blew a top-eight-round pick on Matt Ryan.

19. Todd Gurley

This is one I could easily end up regretting when we revisit this shy-away list after the season. Gurley is a legitimately special talent with game-breaking speed, elusiveness, and power, a three-down back's skill set, and an eventual feature-back workload on a team that wants to run the ball as its offensive foundation.

Gurley's injury concerns are real. Even before tearing his ACL last November, Gurley missed three games and was hindered in others by a high ankle sprain and torn hip flexor in 2013. Both the St. Louis Post-Dispatch and the Rams' website have forecasted that Tre Mason will open 2015 as the Rams' lead runner. NFL Network's Ian Rapoport recently reported Gurley won't play in the first two or three regular-season games.

When Gurley does get up to speed, he'll run behind one of the league's weakest offensive lines in what projects as one of the league's lowest-scoring offenses, coordinated by someone named "Frank Cignetti." The right guard (Jamon Brown) and right tackle (Rob Havenstein) are rookies. The left tackle (Greg Robinson) has a ton of talent, but struggled mightily last year. The likely center (Tim Barnes) has been consistently poor in past spot starts. Left guard Rodger Saffold is a solid starter, albeit with a concerning injury history of his own.

I think Gurley would be worth risking in the sixth and seventh rounds of drafts. With his Average Draft Position still hovering at the fourth-/fifth-round turn, however, I'll be passing on Gurley at his current price point.

20. Golden Tate

I think Tate will have a good season and have drafted him on some of my MFL10 teams. I recently traded for him in a re-draft season-long league. He should be an asset and an every-week starter, particularly in PPR formats. But Tate is going ahead of DeSean Jackson and Brandon Marshall in fantasy drafts, and I don't think that should be the case. Whereas Jackson and Marshall are the top receivers on their teams, Tate is the No. 2 option behind Calvin Johnson in Detroit. I suspect most fantasy owners are looking at last year's stats (99-1,331-4) and expecting a continuation from Tate.

Look behind the numbers, and consider context. There were five games last year in which Megatron was used as a decoy, or didn't play at all. In those five weeks, Tate's 16-game receiving pace was an otherworldly 125-1,917-10. Three of Tate's four touchdowns on the season occurred in those five games, as did four of his five 100-yard games. In the 11 weeks where Megatron was healthy, Tate's receiving pace dipped to 87-1,065-2 with only one 100-yard effort and one touchdown.

Other concerns for Tate include the Lions' commitment to a more-balanced offense. They used a first-round pick on road-grader LG Laken Tomlinson before drafting RB Ameer Abdullah in the second round. This is a team that finished 2014 ranked 11th in the NFL in pass attempts. I don't think the Lions are going to throw 600-plus times again. The potential emergence of second-year TE Eric Ebron could also cut into the receiving pie.

Tate is a good player, and if he stays healthy I think he'll catch 80 balls. But Tate is best viewed as a borderline WR2/3 and not the surefire top-25 wideout he's being drafted like.

21. Julian Edelman

Edelman has been a PPR asset the last two years, turning in catch totals of 105 and 92 while emerging as Tom Brady's most-trusted possession receiver. Edelman is a high-volume glue guy in New England's offense, moving the chains and beating defensive backs with short-area quickness. He wins routinely in the slot and can hold his own on the perimeter.

Edelman is at risk of losing his quarterback for the first four games. Whereas Rob Gronkowski will be a good bet for weekly touchdowns regardless of who's under center, Edelman's value is tied up in his Brady connection to such an extent that he could be legitimately worthless for the first month of the season. Edelman has never been a touchdown scorer; his career high was set at six in 2013. Gronk is healthier than ever, Brandon LaFell now has a full year in the Patriots' system, and it's conceivable Danny Amendola -- a similar player who runs similar routes -- will play an expanded role this year, cutting into Edelman's production. Scott Chandler could also emerge as a contributor depending on how Bill Belichick game plans week to week.

Edelman is a non-touchdown-scoring, volume-dependent, PPR-only commodity whose value is next to nil in standard leagues, and whose volume could take a hit, which would deal a severe blow to his PPR outlook. Edelman was an awesome value in the double-digit draft rounds two years ago. This year, he's going in rounds four and five.

22. Latavius Murray

Murray is an amazing athlete, and at 6-foot-3, 223 is built in the mold of Eric Dickerson. Murray showed homerun-hitting speed down the stretch last season, in addition to flashing the ability to move the chains with tough runs inside the tackles. Murray is currently dominating first-team reps at Raiders camp, where he's clearly been the best back in all of Oakland's practices.

The Raiders are probably going to be a bad team. Their Vegas Win Total of 6.0 games is third worst in the NFL -- ahead of only Tennessee and Jacksonville -- while the organization has piled up double-digit losses in 10 of the last 12 years. The Raiders are short on talent on defense. The quarterback was a checkdown machine as a rookie, and his new pass-catcher corps will likely be comprised of two rookies (Amari Cooper, Clive Walford) plus a one-year reclamation project in Michael Crabtree. Oakland plays in one of the toughest divisions in football with out-of-division games against the AFC North, NFC North, Cleveland, and the Jets.

Murray will likely be an early-down back only on a team that frequently plays from behind and rarely enters the red zone while ceding passing-down duties to Roy Helu. Avoid Murray at his third-/fourth-round draft cost and target Helu in the double-digit rounds.

23. Greg Olsen

The Panthers' aggressive draft-day trade up to secure Devin Funchess in the first half of the second round is most commonly billed as a threat to Kelvin Benjamin's targets. Funchess' presence in Carolina's offense may more adversely affect Carolina's tight end.

Funchess is a big (6'4/232) possession-type receiver who will man the Z position in the Panthers' offense, sometimes aligning a step off the line of scrimmage at flanker, and at other times lining up in the slot to create mismatches. Funchess will work between the numbers, in the same area of the field where Olsen runs most of his routes.

Olsen was primed for regression even before the Funchess pick. He entered 2014 having never before cleared 850 yards in his seven-year career, then suddenly popped off for 1,008. Olsen ranked fourth among tight ends in targets (123) as the 1B to Kelvin Benjamin's 1A. 21.4% of Olsen's catches and 19.1% of his yards occurred in Derek Anderson's two starts, which encompassed 12.5% of the season.

I have Olsen ranked as a top-five fantasy tight end and believe he would offer value as a seventh- or eighth-round fantasy pick, which is where Martellus Bennett usually goes. Olsen's ADP is sitting near the fifth-/sixth-round turn, however, and he is someone to avoid at that price point. I'd much rather take Bennett a full round or two later, or wait for the double-digit rounds to take a shot on Tyler Eifert, Dwayne Allen, or Kyle Rudolph. I'd also take Jordan Cameron over Olsen at their current costs.

(If Kelvin Benjamin's knee injury proves serious, however, Olsen's stock will deserve to rise. We are currently awaiting MRI results.)

24. Julius Thomas

From Denver to Jacksonville. From Peyton Manning to Blake Bortles. From a Broncos offense that last year ranked No. 2 in points scored and No. 7 in total offensive plays to a Jaguars offense that ranked dead last in scoring and 27th in plays. There wasn't a fantasy player who lost more value than Julius Thomas during the 2015 free agency period. Here's a direct quote from Ray Summerlin's March 15 Free Agency Stock Watch column:

Thomas has caught twelve touchdowns in each of the last two seasons, deriving 53 percent of his fantasy output from those scores. Jaguars quarterbacks threw 15 touchdowns total in 2014, with Blake Bortles managing just 11 in 14 appearances.

Thomas' touchdown scoring is a lock to drop, and it might be cut in half or even more so on a Jaguars team that last year ranked dead last in red-zone trips.

It's possible Bortles takes a step forward in his second year. It's possible Thomas is able to offset some of his lost scoring with sheer volume. He could see a boatload of targets in Jacksonville. It could happen, and he could return his draft cost if those scenarios take place. I could be wrong about Julius Thomas. I'm just unwilling to pay his seventh-round price tag to find out.

25. Torrey Smith

It may shock you that Smith has finished as a top-25 fantasy wide receiver in each of his four NFL seasons. He's been a headache in weekly re-draft leagues, but has generally stayed healthy and accumulated seasonal points. Smith has great speed (4.44), plus size (6'1/204), and a lot of NFL value. He requires the attention of multiple defenders whenever he's on the field.

NFL coaching staffs seem to have typecast Smith as a straight-line deep-ball specialist, though, and that's expected to be his role in San Francisco. Before training camp began, venerable beat writer Matthew Barrows of the Sacramento Bee forecasted Smith would net under 750 receiving yards.

Colin Kaepernick has a cannon for an arm, but remains a work in progress as a deep-ball passer. Last year, PFF charted Kaepernick 29th among 38 qualified quarterbacks in their deep-passing efficiency metric. Kaepernick completed just 33% of his passes traveling further than 20 yards, throwing four touchdowns and five interceptions.

Perhaps Smith's addition will ignite Kaepernick's deep-ball game. Perhaps Anquan Boldin will fall off the career cliff at age 34, and Smith will become a target monster. I'm betting those things won't happen. And in re-draft leagues, I'm not seriously considering taking a flyer on Smith before the double-digit rounds.


26. Colin Kaepernick

If you couldn't already tell in my Carlos Hyde writeup, I'm not real optimistic about the 2015 49ers' chances. Their defense and offensive line are shells of what they once were. Kaepernick has not shown the ability to elevate teammates when the chips are down. The chips are down in San Francisco.

Sometimes we look at bad teams and envision them as potential sources of draft-day value. If a team is bad, that team's best way to compensate is to play more-aggressive offense, particularly from a passing standpoint. The 49ers may have to do so often this year.

Kaepernick's history, however, suggests that if the 49ers are a bad team Kaepernick is likely to go in the gutter right along with them. According to stats compiled by The Fake Football's Rich Hribar, Kaepernick has a career TD-to-INT ratio of 33:10 with ten additional rushing touchdowns when the 49ers are leading or tied in games. His TD-to-INT ratio dips to 17:10 with just one rushing touchdown when the 49ers are trailing, including a 1:7 TD-to-INT ratio with the lone rushing score when San Francisco is trailing in the fourth quarter.

As Hribar has openly posited, Kaepernick is a positive-game-flow passer whose performance dips when his team isn't playing competitively. Kaepernick's upside remains intact based purely on his supreme physical tools, but he's going to have to essentially transform himself as a player to capitalize on all of the 49ers' deficiencies.

27. Percy Harvin

Harvin recently required a PRP (Platelet-Rich Plasma) injection in his long-troublesome hip. His fantasy outlook wasn't particularly promising before that.

I covered the Bills' quarterback situation in the Sammy Watkins writeup above. Combine it with coach Rex Ryan and OC Greg Roman's Ground-N-Pound philosophy, and you're going to have a low-volume, inefficient passing game in Buffalo this year. Harvin has been unable to unseat Robert Woods for the starting job across from Watkins, is injured again, and is facing a miserable situation for any fantasy wideout regardless of skill level.

Harvin regularly gets drafted on name appeal. Here's betting the vast majority of Harvin drafters end up dropping him by October.

28. Larry Donnell

A multi-year special teamer entering 2014, Donnell shocked both the real- and fake-football communities by not only winning the Giants' starting job, but by racing out to an absurd 108-944-16 receiving pace in the opening month of last season. Donnell proceeded to fall off the cliff after his three-TD national-television outburst against the Redskins in Week 4, managing a 51-516-3 pace line the rest of the way. It's obviously no coincidence that Donnell's diminished production coincided with Odell Beckham's emergence.

Donnell is also a devastatingly poor blocker whose limitations in those areas prevented him from becoming an every-down tight end last season.

Beckham, Rueben Randle, Victor Cruz, Shane Vereen, Rashad Jennings. Targets are going to be spread around more often in New York's passing game this season. Donnell is 6-foot-6 and nearly 270 pounds, so he should remain an inviting option on Eli Manning's red-zone throws. But Donnell isn't going to be a fantasy starter this year.

29. DeAngelo Williams

With Le'Veon Bell on suspension, Williams will draw the first two starts of the season in Pittsburgh's high-powered offense. Offseason beat writer stories slated Williams for only 10-12 carries per game during Bell's ban, however, and Williams' starts will come against New England and San Francisco in Weeks 1-2. The Patriots and 49ers both fielded top-nine run defenses last season.

Williams makes some sense as a Le'Veon handcuff, but we could also see Dri Archer and Josh Harris mixed in. Williams is 32 years old, best served to play in a rotation, and averaged 3.53 yards per carry last season. Due to injuries and/or ineffectiveness, Williams was phased out of the Panthers' offense down the stretch.

This year's Steelers offense will run through the passing game. Ben Roethlisberger has set back-to-back career highs in pass attempts through two years under OC Todd Haley. Pittsburgh has made the full-on transition from a running-game/defense team to playing pass-first football. Williams has never been an oft-used pass catcher. His career high in receptions is 33, a mark Williams established as a rookie in 2006.

Aim higher with your re-draft picks, even in the late rounds.

30. Alfred Blue

Usually undrafted before Arian Foster's groin tear, Blue's ADP has since soared into the single-digit rounds. I've seen him go as early as rounds six and seven in 12-team leagues.

Not only is Foster's sports-hernia recovery likely to progress quicker than early reports indicated, but there are legitimate reasons to believe Blue isn't very good. A 2014 sixth-round pick who didn't even start at LSU, Blue averaged 3.12 yards per carry as a rookie. In his three spot starts with Foster inactive, Blue lost all passing-down work to Jonathan Grimes, finishing his first NFL season with just 15 catches, six of which occurred in fantasy-irrelevant Week 17. Before Foster's surgery, Blue wasn't so much as assured the Texans' No. 2 running back job. He was going to have to hold off Grimes, Chris Polk, and seventh-round pick Kenny Hilliard, another LSU alum who played ahead of Blue in college.

I've seen the Texans' offense described as "expansion-team level" with Foster on the shelf, and would agree with that assessment. Blue best projects as a volume-dependent, upside-lacking two-down grinder on a low-scoring team with significant threats to his workload, and whose stay atop the depth chart might not last longer than a month to begin the year.

31. Terrance West

The 94th pick in last year's draft, West averaged 3.94 yards per carry as a rookie while failing to separate himself from a backfield that also included Isaiah Crowell and Ben Tate. Off the field, West reportedly had "maturity issues" and clashed with the coaching staff, shuttling in and out of Mike Pettine's weekly doghouse. West is a sort of jack of all trades but master of none. He has shown himself to be a pedestrian ball carrier and capable-if-undynamic pass catcher.

Despite his absence from two weeks of camp with a hamstring injury, the Browns are exceedingly high on this year's third-round pick, Duke Johnson. Crowell is a superior between-the-tackles banger and short-yardage runner to West. Johnson is more adept in the passing game, where the team reportedly has "big plans" for the rookie.

West will likely settle in as a third-string back in one of the NFL's poorest offenses. Perhaps he'll be flex worthy at some point if Crowell or Johnson goes down, but that would appear to be West's ceiling.

32. Donte Moncrief

Moncrief was very efficient as a raw third-round rookie out of Ole Miss. He led Colts receivers in catch rate and yards after catch per reception, while dropping just 2-of-49 targets. With Hakeem Nicks and Reggie Wayne gone from Indianapolis, all early-offseason signs pointed to Moncrief taking a year-two leap and perhaps establishing himself as Andrew Luck's X receiver of the future.

And then the Colts signed Andre Johnson to a three-year, $21 million deal. And then they drafted Phillip Dorsett in the first round. To this point, third-year OC Pep Hamilton has been willing to mix and match three-receiver and two-tight end sets. Hilton and Johnson are very rarely going to come off the field, and Dwayne Allen is an integral part of the Colts' blocking schemes. Sub-package options Moncrief, Dorsett, and Coby Fleener are essentially in a three-way battle for playing time.

Barring injury to Johnson or Hilton, Moncrief's ceiling is the Colts' third receiver on a team that will incorporate two-tight end sets. Moncrief's floor is a fourth receiver who would need Hamilton to suddenly begin using four-wide packages to make any statistical noise.

As Rich Hribar has put it, Moncrief is now the wide receiver version of Christine Michael. He's a big-time talent who's big-time buried on the depth chart, and will need at least one injury -- if not two -- ahead of him to become a legitimate week-to-week fantasy factor.

33. Darren Sproles

Sproles roared out of the gate in his debut season under Chip Kelly, piling up 28 touches, 263 total yards, and two touchdowns in the opening two games. Sproles went in the tank thereafter, averaging 5.5 touches over his final 13 games as a package player and special teamer. This was as a passing-down specialist on a team that threw the football far more often than Kelly hoped. Philadelphia's team pass attempts spiked from 508 in 2013 to 621 last year. Yet Sproles still couldn't carve out more than a bit role.

Sproles turned 32 in June. In March, the Eagles signed DeMarco Murray to a five-year, $40 million contract and Ryan Mathews to a three-year, $11 million deal. Both Mathews and Murray are more-than-capable passing-down backs, while Philadelphia is a virtual lock to throw the ball less this season.

Sproles isn't going to get the ball much this year. Try to get guys who at least have a chance at getting the ball a lot on your fantasy team.

34. Kevin White

White was on my shy-away radar even before he reported to camp with a multi-month shin injury and out of shape. Although White has big-time talent, he's needed development time when transitioning up football-playing levels in the past. After transferring from JUCO, White operated as a rotational receiver his first year at West Virginia. He's now jumping from Big 12 football into the NFL.

Quarterbacked by annual wild card Jay Cutler, the Bears' passing game seems fragile. The team is now overseen by a coach in John Fox who wants to decrease passing volume and lean more on Chicago's run game. Fox has some history of conservatively nursing along rookies, especially at offensive skill positions. In a crowded pass-catcher corps that also includes Alshon Jeffery, Martellus Bennett, and $15 million offseason addition Eddie Royal, White's chances of making a meaningful rookie-year fantasy impact were slim, even when he was healthy.

And now he's on the shelf, with GM Ryan Pace recently acknowledging White might miss all of 2015. Scratch White off your cheatsheet and laugh loudly if someone in your draft takes him.

35. Cody Latimer

Latimer was a good prospect coming out of Indiana. He's big and fast, and he was a highly productive college player. As a 2014 second-round pick, Latimer certainly has the support of the higher ups in Denver. Unfortunately, Latimer isn't going to play much this season.

Planning to employ a more-balanced offense in Peyton Manning's age-39 season, the Broncos made substantial investments into TEs Owen Daniels (three years, $12.25 million) and Virgil Green (three years, $8.4 million) and may run two-tight end sets as a base-personnel package. Denver will use three-receiver sets at times this year, but not to the extent that Latimer will at all resemble an offensive regular. Barring a Demaryius Thomas or Emmanuel Sanders injury, I'd be shocked if Latimer played more than 45% of the Broncos' 2015 snaps.

After about six slow weeks to open the 2015 season, Latimer might be an interesting buy-low target in Dynasty leagues. In all likelihood, re-draft leaguers will end up dropping him.

36. Cordarrelle Patterson

This should be an obvious one, but I keep seeing Patterson getting taken in drafts. Clearly behind Charles Johnson, Mike Wallace, and Jarius Wright on the Vikings' depth chart, Patterson is competing with Adam Thielen and rookie Stefon Diggs for fourth receiver duties.

Essentially a rich man's version of Jacoby Jones, Patterson has failed to progress as a route runner and drew the ire of coach Mike Zimmer for committing a taunting penalty in the Vikings' second preseason game. Patterson will be Minnesota's kickoff returner and perhaps a low-volume gadget guy on offense.

Even if Johnson, Wallace, or Wright got injured -- opening an opportunity for another wideout to get snaps -- Patterson has not shown enough development as an offensive player to become a legitimate fantasy WR3. In Patterson, we're dealing with a player who has a low receiving floor and very little ceiling.

37. Travaris Cadet/James White/Brandon Bolden

I think most of us can agree that Shane Vereen is a more talented player than the passing-down competitors on New England's current roster. Saints castoff Cadet, underwhelming 2014 fourth-round pick White, well-traveled and injury-riddled scatback Dion Lewis, and career special teamer Bolden are the top candidates to "replace" Vereen in passing sets. None of them has anything close to Vereen's NFL resume. Not that Vereen is a consistently game-changing player, but he's also not a replacement-level back. He's better than that.

The competitors for Vereen's old snaps are all replacement-level talents. And the winner of the battle is probably not going to get as much usage as Vereen did. Vereen averaged a measly 9.25 touches per game last season. The "Vereen Role" in New England's offense gets sporadic, game-plan-driven usage and does not score TDs. It's also conceivable that the Pats could use 1-2 backs in Vereen's old duties, or even that the role all but disappears from the offense because getting the ball to Rob Gronkowski, Brandon LaFell, Julian Edelman, and LeGarrette Blount is determined to be better process by the Patriots' coaching staff.

This position battle is Fantasy Fool's Gold defined. Look elsewhere for PPR sleepers.

38. Maxx Williams

Based on Baltimore's pass-catching needs, I was open to the possibility of Williams exceeding the usual rookie tight end expectations after the Ravens traded up to make him the 55th overall pick. Since that selection was made, Williams has been outplayed by superior blocker Crockett Gillmore while generating mixed-at-best reviews at training camp and openly conceding that picking up new OC Marc Trestman's playbook has been a slow process.

Williams is a good-not-great athlete who appears ticketed for a sub-package role as Trestman's "flex" tight end, primarily playing in passing situations. Williams is unlikely to be a full-time player as a rookie.

39. Jay Ajayi

I liked Ajayi coming out of Boise State and remain intrigued by him long term. (Lamar Miller is entering a contract year in 2015.) Ajayi is a big back (6'0/221) with more-than-adequate speed (4.57) and excellent receiving skills. But Ajayi's college tape also revealed an at-times undisciplined runner who struggled to pick up the blitz. Those are deficiencies that can be harnessed, but it often takes time. And coaches get frustrated with rookie backs who don't always run within the play design, and who can't protect their team's franchise quarterback.

Ajayi continued to struggle in pass protection early in camp, before sustaining a hamstring injury that bumped him to fourth on the depth chart. Ajayi is a better player than current Dolphins No. 3 back LaMichael James, but Damien Williams has sewn up the No. 2 job and is Miller's clear-cut fantasy handcuff.

Keep Ajayi stashed in Dynasty leagues and monitor his progress over the course of the year, but he would likely need at least an injury to Miller -- and quite possibly injuries to both Miller and Williams -- to become an immediate factor in re-draft leagues.

40. Tavon Austin

See Cordarrelle Patterson. Austin does have an edge on paper in that the Rams continue to list him as a starter, but he isn't going to be a full-time receiver when the season begins. Those duties will be filled by Kenny Britt and Brian Quick, while Stedman Bailey is a superior offensive option to Austin.

Austin has a big name because of where he was drafted, but he's been a bust through two NFL seasons and will remain so in St. Louis. Austin has next-to-no chance of being an asset in re-draft leagues, and he shouldn't be on best-ball draft radars until the very last round.