Do Seahawks Send in Walsh or Go For Two?
With the change of placement for the extra point, the NFL has seen the rate at which the “go ahead” kick was missed increase in the last two years. In 2015, kickers were making an average of 94.2% of extra points. On November 20, 2016 kickers across the NFL missed a resounding 12 extra points. That had not happened since 1977. Before the kick was moved, it was considered automatic as kickers were making it through ~99% of the time. With the increase in distance and the decrease in kicker reliability, albeit still high, how often should the Seahawks consider going for the two point conversion instead of the traditional extra point?
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The Seahawks have acquired Blair Walsh, the kicker that infamously missed the important chip shot that could have sent the Vikings to the divisional round against Carolina. While the athlete is young, his kicking percentage has dropped from perfect his first three seasons in the NFL to 84% followed by 79% before being cut by the Minnesota Vikings eight games in to the 2016 season. Based on his trend, should he have continued with the Vikings throughout the season, it is not unrealistic to project that he would have dropped to as low as 75% for extra points made.
Losing Steven Hauschka is a hit to the special teams of the Seahawks. Within the same years Blair Walsh saw his stats dwindle, Hauschka was able to keep his extra points made up to 90.9% and in the following year 82.9%. While the second statistic may not seem impressive, keep in mind Hauschka finished out the season whereas Walsh was left sitting at home the rest of the NFL season.
With Seattle replacing a B kicker with a C kicker, it may be time for Seattle to become more aggressive and go for the two point conversion more often. In the last two years, teams have increased the amount of attempts for two point conversions and have an average success rate of 47%. Remove the ghastly performances of the Redskins and the Titans from the 2016 season and that rate is now over 50%. Continue to remove the Dallas Steelers game from the equation and that number now becomes 53.4%. Considering that Walsh ended his season early hovering around 80%, you can assume that he will make 3.2 of the extra points if Seattle scores four touchdowns, whereas if Seattle goes for the two point conversion, they will be successful (with outliers removed to influence statistic) 2.136 times. Simply put, the math shows that for every four attempts, Seattle has a chance to tack on three points with the extra kick or four points from a successful two point conversion.
When it comes to the decision to kick or throw the ball, teams have predominately considered either throwing the ball or quarterback keep. This forces the defense to spread out and allows the quarterback more options or if he so chooses, keep it himself and run it in. But that doesn’t exclude running up the gut or quarterback keep behind the center. Many teams have been successful with that option as well. And with a scrambling quarterback like Russell Wilson the playbook is wide open to move the ball two yards when you have 1,600 sq ft to utilize; or he can hand the ball off to Lacy or Rawls to power run it in for two. There are many options for the Seahawks. It would be unwise for them to stick with traditional scoring tactics and continue to press.
Carroll is known to take great risks in games. It would only make sense that knowing the math, size of the field and the weapons Seattle has on offense, he goes for two every time. The statistics show that in the long run, the two point conversion will result in more points. In the last three years, successful two point attempts is up 4.4% and it is continuing. It may be time to leave the kicker on the bench and let Wilson or Lacy take over more often.
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