Scouting Notebook: Big Maclin

Let’s look closely at the non-quarterbacks who are the leading scorers thus far in 2014 (not including Monday night).

In order (in the 0.75 PPR Yahoo! league I pulled): Julio Jones, Marshawn Lynch, Antonio Brown, DeMarco Murray, Le’Veon Bell, Jeremy Maclin, Calvin Johnson, Jordy Nelson, Gio Bernard, Julius Thomas, Jimmy Graham, Rashad Jennings, Darren Sproles, Dez Bryant, Ahmad Bradshaw, Emmanuel Sanders, Julian Edelman, Steve Smith, Delanie Walker, Kelvin Benjamin.

Just like they came off the board! Not. Who don’t we believe in on this list long term? Who are the sell highs?

I would trade Sanders, Edelman or Smith in a heartbeat for Keenan Allen, who has had a bunch of bad matchups but who still is probably a great player. Allen last year was 21 years old putting up those kinds of numbers and only four guys in league history have had even 800-plus receiving yards at age 21. That’s a little bit of a cheat since underclassman could not enter the NFL for much of its history, but it still gives us a nice 20-year sample or so. Think of Keenan Allen as the Mike Trout of receivers, someone who was great at an age where we typically have to age-adjust stats upwards.

I’d also target DeAndre Hopkins, one of those four 800-plus-yard wideouts at age 21. Hopkins is already the 11th wide out (excluding Monday) and he’ll finish in the top 12 for sure, health permitting. There’s no way he costs you that even today. Remember, Hopkins had a 50-yard, one-handed catch that had to be seen to be believed taken off the board due to an illegal formation. With that play, he’d be in the top six.

Do NOT trade Julio Jones. I also completely believe in Jeremy Maclin in that offense with that quarterback. I loved Maclin early and then bought a little into the “Eagles will spread the ball around so much that all of their receivers are random” nonsense as the season approached. That was a mistake. Maclin is a stud as long as he can stay healthy, and injury risk at wide receiver is minimal.

Montee Ball is not a good player. His upside was all environment based and the environment should still be great. But he’s giving the Broncos reasons now to explore a committee after their Week 4 bye. Their options appear limited however. Ronnie Hillman does not seem to be viewed as more than a change-of-pace back. C.J. Anderson is a hybrid fullback. That leaves rookie Juwan Thompson, fast for his size, impressive in the summer and one who projects as a three-down back. Also, legendary Cowboys scout Gil Brandt loves him. Keep an eye out for reports of him working with the first team during the bye and, if he does, grab him for free.

Ball has been Jim Brown this year compared to Eddie Lacy. The only thing that saved me from Lacy was the zero RB strategy because otherwise I loved him. I’m getting questions about trading Rashad Jennings for Eddie Lacy and, yes, I would do that.

Jennings was great on Sunday, no doubt. But I can’t bet on him surviving and thriving with this level of workload at his age for the first time. Jennings would be fifth oldest back since the merger to get 200-plus carries for the first time. I make it a policy to never bet on history.

And just to prove it’s nothing personal against Jennings, I’d do the same thing with Ahmad Bradshaw (trading him for Lacy) and Bradshaw and Jennings basically have the same amount of points.

Target Bishop Sankey. I’d go 40 percent of my remaining budget, at least. Shonn Greene is terrible. Sankey could be this year’s Zac Stacy, who had one carry last year through four weeks.

Lorenzo Taliaferro looked good on Sunday against an admittedly poor Browns run defense. Forget Justin Forsett. That leaves Taliaferro vs. Bernard Pierce. While Pierce has excellent measurables and ran great in 2012, he’s been an injury-prone disappointment since then. Spend up to 50 percent of remaining FAAB on Taliaferro.

Lamar Miller is valued generally well below current stat production, unusual when the player is young and so obviously skilled.

I just can’t trade Knile Davis now to the Jamaal Charles owner. It’s the Davis owner who should be targeting Charles now, maybe for Jennings or Bradshaw.

Yes, some wide receivers have been big disappointments and my favorite, Demaryius Thomas, tops the list. But there is no way I’m trading him. Look at that two-point conversion play again and see the skills. He’s also had an 80-yard TD taken off the board. It’s been bad but the player is still clearly great — and so is the quarterback. Hang in there with DT.

Niles Paul has 253 receiving yards, just one less than Jimmy Graham among tight ends. He’s still freely available in many leagues. The important note about Paul is that he was a wide receiver at Nebraska and is very fast for a tight end.

Travis Kelce is seventh in receiving yards among tight ends with such limited snaps. I have to expect that snap count to rise dramatically. It would not shock me if Kelce was the top tight end after this bye week. And I would be surprised if he’s not top five. He’s just too good — to big and fast and productive — to keep standing on the sidelines.

Andrew Luck is playing like his mission is to compile fantasy points. He’s the leading QB scorer. But QB scoring typically tracks yards per pass attempt, even with running QBs (and Luck has a whopping 54 rushing yards). Luck’s 7.2 YPA ranks 17th. Last year, he ranked 26th. I can’t carve out a “Andrew Luck exception” in the YPA model that overwhelmingly requires top fantasy scorers to be top in per-pass efficiency, too. Luck is doing great in passer rating but that stat is more descriptive of touchdowns and interceptions than predictive of future ones. Bet YPA over rating, I’ve always said.

What’s wrong with Aaron Rodgers? Nothing, probably. He’s very likely still the best player in football. But the Green Bay wide receivers are not good anymore. Sure, Jordy Nelson is but Randall Cobb is mediocre in a vacuum (put him on the Jets, for example) and then there is a rookie in Davante Adams as the third receiver, another one at tight end and a garbage offensive line. So this is not going to be a vintage Rodgers year, clearly, but for reasons that have little to do with Rodgers.