Scouting Notebook: Backs on the wire

Week 15 in Fantasy Football was the proverbial “Drunkard’s Walk.” Whether you advanced or were vanquished depends on whether your big players showed up at all. That’s usually the case, of course, but it’s hard to remember another playoff week where so many big names came up empty.

But before the post-mortem, let’s help those that are advancing assess the waiver wire, which, as is the case every week, is ripe.

It’s quite frankly hilarious that Toby Gerhart may decide fantasy championships, but that’s our game, boys. The zeroRB guys don’t care, of course. Gerhart suddenly is in line for the most touches and probably any goal-line ones on a team that plays a low-scoring, running friendly brand of defensive football. This week, in front of a nation-wide Thursday audience (as part of, I’m sure, some elaborate practical joke), Gerhart and the Jaguars face the Titans, one of the friendliest running-game matchups going.

In San Francisco, Carlos Hyde may be in line for the most touches now that Frank Gore is in the concussion protocol (worst Mission:Impossible title ever). Hyde needs to be rostered, even defensively.

I was right about Rashad Jennings not being able to hold up as a first-time featured back, but wrong about Andre Williams. Even against a Rams run defense that is very overrated, I can’t trust Williams. His upside is 40 yards and a goal-line TD. His floor is 40 yards. Only play Williams over some real-life backup you’d otherwise be forced to start.

It’s Week 16 and those are three backs who will be starting and who are all free in many leagues. Remember this when you are lectured next summer ad infinitum about how impossible it is to find a running back during the season. I can’t remember a week without a reasonable running back option on waivers. It’s relentless.

I’m not even counting Jonas Gray, as no Patriots running back is bettable. New England is going to pass the Jets silly in Week 16 anyway.

The window to pickup Jonathan Stewart is still open a crack, and he’s a solid option versus the Browns’ horrendous run defense.

I like Latavius Murray, too, even against Buffalo, because home-run hitters aren’t that matchup sensitive. And the Raiders may come to play at home.

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I’d still stream Mark Sanchez against the Redskins, who are the league’s worst pass defense measured by passer rating allowed (109.9 with 31 TDs allowed and five picks). But Sanchez isn’t any good.

Can you play Robert Griffin III this week? The highlights say yes but you have to look at the box score and see all the times he was sacked (seven). Those not only kill drives but could knock RG3 out in an eye-blink. Don’t go name here unless desperate in a two-QB league.

Julio Jones could sit again and then you would want Harry Douglas against the Saints next week, especially with Roddy White also injured and appearing to be on his last legs, age-wise.

Connor Barth is a top kicking option as the Broncos, oddly, have turned into a field-goal type of running/defense team. I like the matchup in Cincinnati.

The Ravens defense is a nice bet to win people championships this week.

I’m getting pushback on Odell Beckham Jr., of course, from people who don’t understand the objectives of a model like “Big Wide Receiver.” The point is not and has never been that no smaller wideouts (Beckham) can be great or that no big wide receivers (Rueben Randle) can be busts. It merely plays the odds. So paying a high draft price for receivers who are not optimally sized for today’s game has a greater probability of being a mistake. And paying a low price for a big wide receiver is more likely to be a bargain. It’s about process, not results. The actual outcomes of certain individuals are meaningless, quite frankly, beyond how they move the entire samples. You always bet the base rates.

But seeing Beckham, which is the purpose of this column as opposed to the “By the Numbers” or “Splitsville” columns, is believing. He plays much bigger than his listed height due to outstanding leaping ability and timing (so underrated when it comes to combine leaping measurements). And he has huge hands and obviously knows how to use them, too. Beckham was never in the small wideout box. He’s just not in the big one. Note that I own Beckham in the Toutwars-like Flex industry league, where he’s put me in the championship game. This is not hypocrisy. Beckham was available on waivers and was obviously a highly-regarded prospect. So he was worth gambling on, despite his size, at that nominal cost on the small chance that he could be a smaller guy who plays really big.

Dez Bryant badly wants touchdowns, which is why we love him.

Forget the Viagra, I want whatever these old fogeys are on in the commercials to be so wide-eyed, crazy happy. That’s how I feel when Gronk scores (which, as Andy Behrens noted to me, is all the time).

Peyton Manning doesn’t look healthy, but now we find out he had the flu. I don’t like Manning in the cold next week on Monday Night football but you have to play him. I think this hurts Emmanuel Sanders, too, because there isn’t anything resembling a downfield game anymore. Peyton can still toss it up into the end zone by the boundary, but those are Demaryius Thomas plays.

Well, I sure called the Le’Veon Bell touchdown correction. But that was just luck. Obviously, the release of LeGarrette Blount is a big help here but there was no way Bell was going to stay near a TD every 340 scrimmage yards. The past two games, he’s at about one every 70 yards. That’s great but not exactly some crazy fluke, or a correction in the opposite direction. Knile Davis, Isiah Crowell, Darren Sproles and Jamaal Charles have TD efficiency about the same as or better than Bell’s pace the last two games. Davis has eight touchdowns! Charles apparently does not have a concussion but get Davis just in case.

Aren't all the LeSean McCoy owners done anyway? McCoy’s usage and the (limited) ceiling Chip Kelly is giving him as a fantasy producer is real and has to be part of his projection going forward. And we project guys every week, not just in August.

There are WR busts of all shapes and sizes. And some guys like Keenan Allen got hurt. Jordan Matthews and Josh Gordon are the most shocking to me. I can’t understand how Gordon made it look so easy his first game and has since struggled to get open. I hate to hang this on a player, but all this lends credence to those questioning his effort.

I would have expected more of Sammy Watkins in Week 15 but I won’t make the mistake in Week 16. Watkins seems to have hit the rookie wall. This has been like two college seasons for him.