Roundtable: Correa Arrives
This is the weekly Fantasy Roundtable, where the writers of Rotoworld Baseball let the readers of Rotoworld Baseball in on a quick staff discussion. It's water cooler talk ... that we've decided to publish. Look for it every Tuesday.
Drew Silva: In last week's Roundtable we shared our views on the short-term and long-term fantasy potential of Rangers third base prospect Joey Gallo. Another exciting youngster joined the American League West race on Monday in Astros shortstop prospect Carlos Correa. Let's hear some thoughts on him, in the same vein ...
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Ryan Boyer: It's impossible not to be impressed by what Correa did at the minor league level. The 20-year-old has posted on-base percentages north of .400 for three straight seasons, showing no ill effects from last year's fractured fibula. He earned a promotion from Double-A Corpus Christi last month after batting a ridiculous .385/.459/.726 with seven homers and 15 stolen bases over 29 games. His production slowed a bit at Triple-A Fresno, as he hit .276/.345/.449 with three longballs and three steals over 24 games. Keep in mind, though, that he was playing against guys that were, on average, nearly seven years older than him. Correa's success in the minors relative to his age bodes extremely well for his future, but his somewhat pedestrian showing at Triple-A might hint that we can't expect a superstar right away. That said, I'm more than happy to roll the dice on him in any and every league, as I do think he'll have fantasy value at what's been a weak shortstop position this season.
Drew Silva: It was pretty cool to see Correa notch his first career major league hit Monday night off perennial American League Cy Young Award candidate Chris Sale. And it was an RBI single, representing the only run the Astros scored against Sale and the White Sox in a 3-1 loss.
D.J. Short: When considering Correa's potential value strictly for 2015, it's all about context. The average batting line for a major league shortstop this season sits at just .253/.300/.367. Meanwhile, look at some of the names who are currently ranked among the top-12 shortstop-eligible players in Yahoo. It's not pretty. Thanks to disappointing starts from high-profile names like Ian Desmond and Jimmy Rollins, you'll find Adeiny Hechavarria ranked fifth and underwhelming options like Andrelton Simmons, Yunel Escobar, Wilmer Flores, and Justin Turner (yes, a part-time player) rounding out the top-12. Is Correa going to enjoy immediate success in the majors? That's obviously far from a guarantee, but it probably won't take much for him to be valuable at the shortstop position this season. As opposed to the Joey Gallo situation, Correa is someone you should roll with in standard mixed formats right away.
One sidenote here is that Jed Lowrie is due back from his thumb surgery shortly after the All-Star break. He was off to a great start prior to the injury and Astros general manager Jeff Luhnow said he'll remain "a big part of the team" upon his return. Assuming Correa's transition to the majors goes well, Lowrie figures to slide over to third base with Luis Valbuena moving to a bench role.
Drew Silva: Something I'll add is that Correa is very good defensively and seems to be getting better, which should help keep him in the majors even if he falls into a deep rookie rut offensively. He has a laser for an arm, good footwork, and the kind of range you'd expect from a guy who stole 18 bases in 53 games this season between Double-A Corpus Christi and Triple-A Fresno. You hear talk of the Dodgers eventually having to move their top shortstop prospect, Corey Seager, away from the position. But you don't hear any of that for Correa. Stuff to keep in mind in the short term and long term when considering Correa's fantasy potential.
Nathan Grimm: Ryan and D.J. covered the short-term approach, but in dynasties and other keeper leagues Correa could make a quick leap up to the first few rounds of the draft as early as next season. His bat would play anywhere, but his ability to stick at shortstop will make him, as D.J. noted, one of the best hitters at arguably the thinnest position for offensive talent. There's a reason shortstops just went 1-2-3 in Monday's MLB Draft -- it's a position that's hard to find, and it's even harder to find a guy who can hit and field the position well. Correa did both in the minors, and there's no reason to suspect the former No. 1 overall pick won't do both in the majors as well. That's a perennial early-round pick in our game.
Matthew Pouliot: I placed Correa 14th among shortstops in the June Rankings update. I’d bump him up to ninth or 10th now that he’s officially been called up. It’s such a weak field and he’s so talented that it doesn’t make sense to go any lower, even if he’s probably not going to be an instant star for the Astros.
It also doesn’t hurt his stock that neither Francisco Lindor nor Javier Baez are getting their anticipated callups. It looked as though it was Lindor time on Sunday when the Indians demoted Jose Ramirez, but they picked Zach Walters instead. Baez seemed likely to get the call this weekend before a broken finger suffered Sunday knocked him out for 4-8 weeks. Neither were as good of bets as Correa anyway, but Baez, at least, would have been worthy of a flier in mixed leagues.
Disagree? Want to add something? Got a question? You can find each of these @Rotoworld_BB writers on Twitter: @drewsilv, @ryanpboyer, @djshort, @nate_grimm, @matthewpouliot.
