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Roger Goodell, NFL could get favorable deflate-gate ruling yet still lose

NEW YORK – In late July, moments after Roger Goodell upheld Tom Brady's four-game suspension in the deflate-gate scandal, the NFL filed a lawsuit in lower Manhattan seeking to have the U.S. District Court there confirm the ruling.

This was so-called "forum shopping," the league seeking a favorable, historically pro-business court. The NFL Players Association preferred to get the case to Minnesota in front of Judge David S. Doty, who has routinely ruled against the league.

By filing first, the NFL got its wish – New York's Southern District, just steps from Wall Street, was selected.

Roger Goodell has had some rough moments over the past couple of years. (AP)
Roger Goodell has had some rough moments over the past couple of years. (AP)

Like many things in this forever scandal, though, it backfired on the NFL. What was hoped to be a quick decision based on case law that pays "great deference" to Goodell's power as arbitrator no matter how bizarre and befuddling the system, has turned into a growing public relations nightmare.

On Monday, both Brady and Goodell return to the 17th floor downtown courtroom of Judge Richard M. Berman, the man responsible for whatever angst the once confident NFL is now feeling.

In a case that is now less about the inflation levels of the footballs and more about the lasting reputation of two of football's most prominent figures, it is now Goodell with little to gain and Brady with little to lose.

Make no mistake: legally, the NFL still holds a strong position. Based on the 2001 U.S. Supreme Court decision MLBPA v Garvey, judges can't step in and revoke arbitrators' decisions even if it determines "improvident, even silly, fact-finding."

"It is only when the arbitrator strays from interpretation and application of the agreement and effectively 'dispenses his own brand of industrial justice' that his decision may be unenforceable," the Garvey ruling reads.

While NFLPA attorney Jeffrey Kessler has presented four separate arguments to Berman suggesting Goodell strayed from the process spelled out in the CBA, the NFL still has the Garvey decision behind it. Even if Berman initially sides with Brady, the NFL would be favored if the case goes to the Second Circuit Court of Appeals, which is just around the corner here.

So the NFL is still the most likely party to win, eventually.

At what cost, though?

In the month since the case went before Berman, the judge has put the league's attention to fairness under a bright spotlight. He released the full transcripts to all hearings, including Brady's appeal, which the NFL sought to seal, exposing numerous problems and mischaracterizations. He's questioned the league's motives. He's cracked jokes about its procedures. He's played along with Kessler's colorful rants that play well in the media. He's practically been a PatsFans.com message board poster in a black robe.

If the NFL hoped for a rubber stamp, it instead got a federal judge lampooning its system and the commissioner in charge.

Not all of the fans are in Tom Brady's corner. (Getty)
Not all of the fans are in Tom Brady's corner. (Getty)

Add in this irony: Getting the case sent to New York, rather than in front of Judge Doty in Minnesota, was seen, at the time, as a victory for the NFL. As it turns out, though, the case in Minnesota wasn't assigned to Doty. Had it stayed there, the league may have gotten a more favorable judge and been able to effectively argue both legally and to fans that this was just a waste of resources.

Instead the NFL demanded the court step in and may have wound up with a less-friendly judge in the process.

Monday could get even tougher if Berman continues to harshly question the NFL, this time with Goodell sitting there. Then, if there is no settlement, Berman's decision could come as soon as Monday. It is expected no later than Friday. Even if Berman rules in favor of the NFL, the judgment could contain pointed verbiage calling out the league for a confused mess of an investigation.

Goodell could win and take a beating. Brady could lose and, while no doubt upset about missing a quarter of the New England Patriots' season and certainly not exonerated, walk away with the support of a federal judge backing his essential argument that the NFL lacked proof, standards or fairness.

From the start, deflate-gate has been about winning in the court of public opinion because the league was never able to unearth much evidence. Scientifically it's still debatable that the footballs were even deflated.

From the start, sources in the league office served as the basis for stories that were inaccurate, yet highly prejudicial to Brady and the Patriots. The Wells report was sold to the public as independent and thorough but proved to be neither. In July, Goodell himself completely misrepresented Brady's testimony, again making the quarterback look worse than the facts of the case could suggest. None of it has been corrected.

The NFL doesn't want the final chapter to be a federal court saying it was incompetent and vengeful but technically had the right to be incompetent and vengeful so nothing can be done to protect poor Tom Brady from such incompetence and vengefulness.

Goodell is image conscious. He's taken a significant beating over the past couple of years, most notably for his handling of the Ray Rice domestic violence case. This could be devastating, even in victory.

Tom Brady's image has taken a hit during this whole process. (Getty)
Tom Brady's image has taken a hit during this whole process. (Getty)

Brady too is image conscious, which fuels his motivation to never admit guilt in this case – whether it's because he's innocent or not. The difference is he's been so raked over the coals and presumed guilty thanks to earlier media waves that barring additional evidence, there's not much worse that could come out.

While there remains plenty of suspicious activity and questions about what happened to those footballs, and Brady's role in it, by this point it's the NFL that's on trial, in part because an impartial judge down in New York keeps singing Brady's song.

Monday at 11 a.m. ET, everyone will be back in front of Richard M. Berman – the rubber stamp turned wild card.

No one knows what he'll say next – only that this could get uncomfortable for Roger Goodell who certainly never saw all of this coming.