Rising and Falling
After 11 weeks of action, we usually have enough data to see trends in fantasy performance and know who is good and who isn’t. But there are always those players who come out of nowhere later in the season. Similarly, there are always players who regress. I wanted to use the opportunity of the international break to look at some rising and falling stars in fantasy Premier League.
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Rising
These players are ones you should target in all formats. In the Yahoo! Fantasy game, you can look to get these players at a discount before their price explodes. In season-long formats, these players can be had for cheaper than usual and you should invest heavily.
Thibaut Courtois – The Chelsea goalkeeper is third on the goalkeeper scoring list but I think he can be much bette. Chelsea have gotten unlucky in a few matches, conceding late in games when they’ve had a big lead. Those have caused them to lose a few clean sheets and that has resulted in Courtois ranking third with only two clean sheets to his name. The Blues’ defense has been slowly improving and I won’t be surprised to see Courtois finish first among all goalkeepers this season.
Aaron Ramsey – Ramsey has been injured often this season but he’s now back and improving. He only registered two points in his last Premier League game but that can attributed to a yellow card. The good thing about Ramsey is that produces in multiple categories. On the season, he has 6 shots on target, 15 tackles won, 2 goals, 12 passes intercepted, and 11 fouls won among a series of other stats. That sort of production is very sustainable and I believe he will improve his scoring and assist rates as he gets back to full fitness. At an average of seven points per game, he has been a solid choice so far, but things are looking up.
Radamel Falcao – We just had a player blurb on Falcao explaining that some of his struggles were due to him trying too hard to meet expectations at Manchester United while still having some fitness issues. He is training with the Manchester staff during this international break to improve his fitness and should hit the ground running once he returns. He actually hasn’t been bad when on the pitch, averaging eight points per match. We expect that to improve in this potent attack.
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Falling
These are players you should try to sell in season-long formats and ones you may be weary of in the Yahoo! game going forward.
Alexis Sanchez – This one is bound to cause some controversy but I’m ready for it. I believe Alexis Sanchez will regress. He has been scoring at a spectacular rate and already has eight goals on the season but he has done that with a 36.36% shot-to-goal conversion rate according to Premierleague.com. On top of that, those 8 goals have come from only 16 shots on target. That’s unsustainable. Since 48.2% of his points in the Yahoo! game have come from goals, I find it unrealistic for him to continue this pace. With that being said, I don’t think Alexis will be horrible going forward. If you have him at £ 5M, certainly keep him, he is definitely worth it at that price, but look to sell in season-long formats.
Sadio Berahino – Similarly to Sanchez, Berahino has enjoyed a very hot scoring streak. And just like his Arsenal counter-part, he has scored on 50% of his shots on target. Keeping that up for the remainder of the season is simply impossible, especially with a mediocre West Brom supporting cast. Expect Berahino to fall in the coming weeks.
Southampton defense – The Saints have kept an incredible six clean sheets in 11 matches. A big reason for that has been the midfield play of Morgan Schneiderlin and Victor Wanyama. The two midfielders are ranked fourth and fifth in tackles won this season among all positions. That has helped keep more than 50% clean sheets, but the problem here is with the upcoming schedule. Their next fixtures: Aston Villa, Manchester City, Arsenal, Manchester United, Burnley, Everton, Crystal Palace, Chelsea, Arsenal, Manchester United. That’s an incredibly tough schedule and the chances of them keeping this rate of clean sheets is very small. Ryan Bertrand and Nathaniel Clyne will still have moderate value due to their attacking points, but overall everyone is in line for a regression.
