R.I.P. 2014 Cincinnati Reds' season
The Cincinnati Reds were officially eliminated from playoff contention recently. As we do in these parts, let us eulogize the very disappointing and injury-riddled season that was in the Queen City.
What went right
Devin Mesoraco had a breakout season, making the All-Star Game for the first time in his young career. He's one of the best offensive catchers in the NL this season. Todd Frazier also made his first All-Star Game in a bounce-back from his sophomore slump in 2013. He joined Aaron Boone and Chris Sabo as the only Reds third basemen in history with at least 20 homers and 20 steals in a season. Rookie center fielder Billy Hamilton showed enough promise to believe he's a long-term piece, too.
On the mound, Johnny Cueto would be a Cy Young candidate most years, Alfredo Simon had a net-positive year (albeit with a decline after the All-Star break) and Aroldis Chapman was his dominant self.
What went wrong
The Reds won 90 games last season and are currently 11 games under .500, so quite a bit went wrong here.
First of all, the injuries. Boy, the injuries. Brandon Phillips missed several weeks while Joey Votto has only played 62 games -- and when he was playing, he was mostly doing so while visibly hampered. Mesoraco had two DL stints. Starting pitchers Mat Latos, Homer Bailey and Tony Cingrani had various injuries while Chapman, Jonathan Broxton and others were not unscathed in the bullpen.
It was not, however, only injuries that derailed the Reds. There was underperformance, too. The following players didn't do what we might expect when they were on the field: Votto, Phillips, Zack Cozart, Ryan Ludwick (at least in terms of power), Bailey, Cingrani and more. Possibly the biggest underachiever, though, was Jay Bruce. He is in his age-27 season and having the worst season of his career by far.
Perhaps most unsettling of all is how things became unraveled. They were red-hot at the All-Star break, with a 51-44 record overall, putting them only 1.5 games out in the NL Central. Since then, they have gone 20-38, the worst mark in the entire NL.
MVP: Mesoraco leads NL catchers in home runs and slugging percentage while serving as a quality defensive backstop. He's the pick.
LVP: Bruce. With injuries to several offensive players through most of the season, an All-Star slugger needs to step up. Bruce is hitting .213/.282/.364 with just 16 homers and 61 RBI. His average season from 2011-13 was .257/.332/.488 with 32 homers and 102 RBI.
Free agents to be: SP Johnny Cueto ($10M club option), OF Ryan Ludwick ($9M mutual option with a $4.5M buyout if it's not picked up), IF Jack Hannahan ($4M club option with a $2M buyout), IF Ramon Santiago
Gameplan heading into the offseason
This is a pivotal offseason in terms of the direction of the Reds' franchise. With arbitration and pre-arbitration salaries, the Reds' payroll is already likely to be just shy of $100 million for next season. If they pick up every option, it's roughly $125 million. They can't handle that.
Not only that, but -- assuming they pick up Cueto's option, which is a no-brainer -- they are set to see Cueto, Latos, Simon and Mike Leake all hit free agency after the 2015 season.
With a bit of a stale roster and tons of money committed to Votto, Phillips and Bailey moving forward, general manager Walt Jocketty has his hands full here.
Do the Reds believe they can compete for a playoff spot next year with a very similar roster to this season's? They could assume health and bounce-backs, sure, but the division is arguably the strongest in baseball. It would be a risk.
The other option is to start rebuilding on the fly.
A starting point there? Trade Cueto. Surely a team looking to contend would love to have him at just $10 million next season and if that team has deep pockets, the possibility of extending him during the season would be very enticing. And if they're gonna do that, shouldn't they see what they could get for Latos, too?
In dealing those two, they could stock up on quality, young, cost-controlled talent and still keep several good veteran pieces around. So it wouldn't be an Astros- or Cubs-style gutting of the roster, but would help to start shaping the future roster.
With the savings of future payroll dollars, the Reds could focus on finding a left fielder for the future, some rotation help for Bailey, Leake, Cingrani and highly-touted prospect Robert Stephenson while also possibly attaching Phillips to either Cueto or Latos (in the process, they'd probably have to eat most of Phillips' contract anyway). Then they could find a younger, cheaper second baseman.
Honestly, though, I feel like Jocketty is going to try and see what this roster can do for one more year -- especially if they get a healthy season. Keep in mind, they are hosting the All-Star Game next season and blowing things up in the offseason isn't a great way to rally the hometown fan base.
Ridiculously premature prediction for 2015
They'll be a lot closer to last place than first place. Again. A bit of a makeover is needed, and if Jocketty doesn't start it this offseason, he'll be doing it after 2015.
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