Projected Meta-Rankings
This column provides 'meta-rankings' for the top-200 players in 9-cat and 8-cat leagues, based upon the combined league-wide statistical projections of three prominent and well-regarded NBA sites. If you're playing fantasy basketball, you're on at least one of these sites on a daily basis.
Rotoworld is one of them, and our full projections are available in the NBA Draft Guide. Weekly rankings and projections will be available imminently in the Season Pass! The other two sites I'm using for bedrock data are ESPN.com and the ever-impressive Basketball Monster. It's expected that many owners will vehemently disagree with some of these projections-based rankings, in which case I encourage you to check out the source materials.
Editor's Note: Rotoworld's partner FanDuel is hosting a one-day $200,000 Fantasy Basketball league for October 29th's games. It's $25 to join and first prize is $20,000. Starts at 7pm ET on October 29th. Here's the FanDuel link.
Methodology
1) Aggregate league-wide player projections.
2) Assign each player a 'value' in 9-cat and 8-cat leagues by using population means, standard deviations and z-scores (I weighted both FG% and FT% by attempts...email me if you want to know more about that).
3) Eliminate any players who fell below the top-200 for each format, then re-calculate means, standard deviations and z-scores to determine new top-200 values.
4) Weight these z-score-based values by each player's projected number of games played (compared to the population mean, not an 82-game season).
5) For each individual set of projections, rank players based upon these new, weighted top-200 values for 9-cat and 8-cat leagues.
6) Merge these 9-cat and 8-cat rankings and average each player's ranking to determine a 'Meta-Rank.'
7) Talk a walk to remind myself what fresh air feels like.
8) Share the results! (Of the analysis, not the walk.)
In case it's not perfectly clear, these aren't my personal rankings. They're not even the official rankings of the sites whose projections I'm analyzing, though any list of projected stats betrays the expectations and biases of the person/people compiling the numbers. By combining multiple such projections, my goal is to arrive at as objective a ranking as I can possibly come up with. *A spreadsheet quirk initially had "Wes Matthews" showing up as "Wes Johnson," thanks to Richard Cafarelli for quickly pointing that out to me! It's now updated with the correct name. (Wes Johnson came out ranked 143 in 9-cat and 157 in 8-cat.)
Two more notes: Anyone heading into a draft should also check out Aaron Bruski's top-150 list, as well as Mike Gallagher's columns about 'Abusing the Default Rankings' for ESPN or Yahoo!. They're both terrific resources to have you at the top of your game on draft day.
9-CAT | 8-CAT | |||
---|---|---|---|---|
Player | Meta-Rank | Player | Meta-Rank | |
Anthony Davis | 2.0 | Stephen Curry | 1.0 | |
LeBron James | 3.0 | LeBron James | 2.7 | |
Chris Paul | 3.3 | Kevin Durant | 3.0 | |
Kevin Durant | 3.7 | James Harden | 4.3 | |
Stephen Curry | 4.0 | Chris Paul | 5.3 | |
James Harden | 7.0 | Russell Westbrook | 6.0 | |
Carmelo Anthony | 7.7 | Anthony Davis | 6.7 | |
Kevin Love | 8.7 | Carmelo Anthony | 9.0 | |
Serge Ibaka | 9.7 | John Wall | 9.7 | |
Russell Westbrook | 10.0 | Kevin Love | 10.3 | |
Kawhi Leonard | 10.3 | DeMarcus Cousins | 11.7 | |
Dirk Nowitzki | 11.7 | Serge Ibaka | 14.0 | |
Al Jefferson | 16.3 | Kyle Lowry | 15.0 | |
Kyle Lowry | 16.3 | Kawhi Leonard | 16.7 | |
John Wall | 17.3 | Kyrie Irving | 16.7 | |
LaMarcus Aldridge | 17.7 | Dirk Nowitzki | 19.0 | |
Kyrie Irving | 18.0 | Damian Lillard | 19.3 | |
Al Horford | 20.0 | Blake Griffin | 21.3 | |
Damian Lillard | 20.3 | Chris Bosh | 22.3 | |
Chris Bosh | 20.7 | Paul Millsap | 23.3 | |
Mike Conley | 21.3 | Nicolas Batum | 23.7 | |
DeMarcus Cousins | 23.0 | LaMarcus Aldridge | 24.7 | |
Paul Millsap | 24.0 | Al Horford | 25.0 | |
Nicolas Batum | 24.3 | Mike Conley | 25.0 | |
Marc Gasol | 28.0 | Al Jefferson | 26.7 | |
Andre Drummond | 28.3 | Deron Williams | 28.0 | |
Blake Griffin | 28.3 | Ty Lawson | 29.3 | |
Joakim Noah | 30.0 | Victor Oladipo | 31.0 | |
Nikola Vucevic | 32.0 | Ricky Rubio | 32.3 | |
Trevor Ariza | 33.3 | Eric Bledsoe | 32.7 | |
Wesley Matthews | 33.3 | Jeff Teague | 32.7 | |
Deron Williams | 35.3 | Kobe Bryant | 33.0 | |
Klay Thompson | 36.0 | Michael Carter-Williams | 33.7 | |
Kemba Walker | 36.7 | Rajon Rondo | 34.3 | |
Chandler Parsons | 37.7 | Goran Dragic | 35.7 | |
Brook Lopez | 39.0 | Joakim Noah | 36.0 | |
Thaddeus Young | 40.3 | Derrick Rose | 36.3 | |
Goran Dragic | 42.0 | Kemba Walker | 36.3 | |
DeMar DeRozan | 42.3 | Marc Gasol | 37.7 | |
Ty Lawson | 45.7 | Monta Ellis | 37.7 | |
George Hill | 46.0 | Gordon Hayward | 39.7 | |
Jeff Teague | 47.3 | Nikola Vucevic | 39.7 | |
Marcin Gortat | 49.7 | Jrue Holiday | 40.3 | |
Derrick Favors | 50.7 | Rudy Gay | 40.7 | |
Gordon Hayward | 51.0 | DeMar DeRozan | 45.7 | |
Larry Sanders | 51.3 | Chandler Parsons | 48.7 | |
Robin Lopez | 51.7 | Andre Drummond | 49.0 | |
Ricky Rubio | 53.0 | Jeremy Lin | 51.0 | |
Kobe Bryant | 54.0 | Trevor Ariza | 51.0 | |
Jose Calderon | 55.0 | Klay Thompson | 51.7 | |
Tim Duncan | 55.3 | Thaddeus Young | 52.3 | |
Bradley Beal | 55.7 | Brook Lopez | 52.7 | |
Eric Bledsoe | 56.0 | Dwyane Wade | 53.0 | |
Ryan Anderson | 56.0 | Brandon Jennings | 54.0 | |
Jimmy Butler | 56.3 | Derrick Favors | 56.0 | |
Derrick Rose | 56.7 | Wesley Matthews | 59.3 | |
Patrick Beverley | 60.0 | Bradley Beal | 61.0 | |
Terrence Jones | 60.3 | Marcin Gortat | 61.3 | |
Josh McRoberts | 61.3 | Tim Duncan | 61.3 | |
Kyle Korver | 62.3 | George Hill | 62.0 | |
DeMarre Carroll | 62.7 | David West | 69.0 | |
Rudy Gay | 64.0 | Lance Stephenson | 70.7 | |
Kevin Martin | 64.7 | Kenneth Faried | 71.0 | |
Victor Oladipo | 67.0 | Markieff Morris | 71.0 | |
Monta Ellis | 68.0 | Jose Calderon | 71.3 | |
Jrue Holiday | 68.3 | Jamal Crawford | 73.7 | |
Tobias Harris | 69.0 | Tyreke Evans | 74.0 | |
David West | 69.7 | David Lee | 74.7 | |
Kenneth Faried | 69.7 | Reggie Jackson | 76.3 | |
Brandon Jennings | 70.0 | Kevin Martin | 77.0 | |
Draymond Green | 70.0 | Nerlens Noel | 77.0 | |
Danny Green | 71.3 | Tony Parker | 77.0 | |
Jamal Crawford | 72.0 | Larry Sanders | 77.3 | |
Dwyane Wade | 74.0 | Patrick Beverley | 77.3 | |
Rajon Rondo | 74.7 | Jimmy Butler | 79.0 | |
DeAndre Jordan | 75.0 | Mario Chalmers | 79.3 | |
Andrew Bogut | 75.7 | Darren Collison | 80.7 | |
David Lee | 78.3 | Jonas Valanciunas | 80.7 | |
Pau Gasol | 78.7 | Josh Smith | 80.7 | |
Markieff Morris | 81.7 | Pau Gasol | 81.3 | |
Jonas Valanciunas | 82.0 | Tobias Harris | 81.7 | |
Nerlens Noel | 82.7 | Josh McRoberts | 82.7 | |
Tyson Chandler | 82.7 | Isaiah Thomas | 84.0 | |
Michael Carter-Williams | 83.3 | Paul Pierce | 84.3 | |
Jeremy Lin | 83.7 | Robin Lopez | 85.0 | |
J.J. Redick | 85.0 | Greg Monroe | 85.7 | |
Nikola Pekovic | 89.3 | Kyle Korver | 86.0 | |
Jared Sullinger | 89.7 | Ryan Anderson | 87.3 | |
J.R. Smith | 90.0 | Andrew Bogut | 89.0 | |
Brandan Wright | 91.7 | Luol Deng | 89.3 | |
Reggie Jackson | 92.0 | Roy Hibbert | 89.7 | |
Channing Frye | 92.3 | Terrence Jones | 90.0 | |
Amir Johnson | 92.7 | Jared Sullinger | 91.3 | |
Isaiah Thomas | 93.3 | DeAndre Jordan | 92.0 | |
Darren Collison | 96.0 | Brandon Knight | 93.7 | |
Jodie Meeks | 96.3 | Draymond Green | 94.0 | |
Paul Pierce | 97.0 | Nikola Pekovic | 95.7 | |
Tony Parker | 98.0 | Jabari Parker | 97.0 | |
Joe Johnson | 100.0 | Danny Green | 97.3 | |
Lance Stephenson | 102.0 | Jeff Green | 97.3 | |
Luol Deng | 102.3 | Arron Afflalo | 97.7 | |
Mario Chalmers | 102.3 | Tyson Chandler | 97.7 | |
Greg Monroe | 103.0 | Dwight Howard | 98.3 | |
Tyreke Evans | 105.0 | DeMarre Carroll | 99.3 | |
Roy Hibbert | 105.3 | J.R. Smith | 100.7 | |
Ersan Ilyasova | 106.0 | Amir Johnson | 102.0 | |
Arron Afflalo | 106.3 | J.J. Redick | 102.3 | |
Mirza Teletovic | 106.5 | Joe Johnson | 104.0 | |
Jeff Green | 110.0 | Giannis Antetokounmpo | 107.7 | |
Danilo Gallinari | 110.3 | Manu Ginobili | 109.0 | |
Mason Plumlee | 110.5 | Andre Iguodala | 115.0 | |
Andre Iguodala | 111.7 | Avery Bradley | 115.3 | |
Josh Smith | 112.0 | Kelly Olynyk | 115.3 | |
Matt Barnes | 112.0 | Zach Randolph | 116.0 | |
Jordan Hill | 113.0 | Eric Gordon | 116.3 | |
Avery Bradley | 114.0 | Mason Plumlee | 120.5 | |
P.J. Tucker | 120.0 | Danilo Gallinari | 122.7 | |
Patrick Patterson | 120.5 | Channing Frye | 123.3 | |
Manu Ginobili | 122.0 | Jodie Meeks | 124.7 | |
Courtney Lee | 124.0 | Matt Barnes | 124.7 | |
Henry Sims | 124.3 | Jordan Hill | 126.7 | |
Terrence Ross | 124.3 | Brandan Wright | 129.3 | |
Wilson Chandler | 126.7 | C.J. Miles | 129.7 | |
Anderson Varejao | 127.0 | Carlos Boozer | 130.3 | |
C.J. Miles | 127.3 | Ersan Ilyasova | 130.7 | |
Gerald Green | 127.3 | Trey Burke | 130.7 | |
Kelly Olynyk | 128.3 | Andrea Bargnani | 131.3 | |
Corey Brewer | 129.0 | Gerald Green | 131.7 | |
Mike Dunleavy | 131.5 | Nene Hilario | 133.3 | |
Andrea Bargnani | 131.7 | Spencer Hawes | 134.3 | |
Jabari Parker | 134.0 | Steve Nash | 137.3 | |
Brandon Knight | 134.7 | Wilson Chandler | 137.3 | |
Eric Gordon | 134.7 | Mirza Teletovic | 137.5 | |
Jeremy Lamb | 135.0 | P.J. Tucker | 138.5 | |
Vince Carter | 135.3 | Patrick Patterson | 140.5 | |
Spencer Hawes | 136.0 | Gorgui Dieng | 141.7 | |
Marcus Thornton | 136.5 | Taj Gibson | 141.7 | |
Gorgui Dieng | 137.7 | JaVale McGee | 142.3 | |
Nick Young | 138.0 | Henry Sims | 142.7 | |
Zach Randolph | 139.0 | Terrence Ross | 143.0 | |
Giannis Antetokounmpo | 139.7 | Anderson Varejao | 143.3 | |
Anthony Morrow | 140.0 | Andrew Wiggins | 145.3 | |
Taj Gibson | 140.3 | Rodney Stuckey | 145.3 | |
JaVale McGee | 140.7 | Lou Williams | 146.0 | |
Tim Hardaway Jr. | 141.0 | Alan Anderson | 147.0 | |
C.J. Watson | 141.5 | Nick Young | 147.0 | |
Kyle O'Quinn | 141.7 | Tiago Splitter | 147.5 | |
Khris Middleton | 142.0 | Marcus Smart | 147.7 | |
Kevin Garnett | 144.0 | Timofey Mozgov | 149.3 | |
Samuel Dalembert | 145.0 | Mike Dunleavy | 150.5 | |
Lou Williams | 146.0 | Corey Brewer | 151.7 | |
Trey Burke | 146.3 | D.J. Augustin | 152.0 | |
Marvin Williams | 149.0 | Kyle O'Quinn | 152.0 | |
Shawn Marion | 149.3 | Ray Allen | 153.0 | |
D.J. Augustin | 150.0 | Vince Carter | 153.0 | |
Marco Belinelli | 150.0 | Jarrett Jack | 153.3 | |
Timofey Mozgov | 151.0 | K.J. McDaniels | 153.7 | |
Carlos Boozer | 151.3 | Samuel Dalembert | 153.7 | |
Thabo Sefolosha | 153.0 | Amare Stoudemire | 155.0 | |
Chris Andersen | 155.0 | Tony Allen | 155.3 | |
Rudy Gobert | 155.0 | John Henson | 156.0 | |
James Johnson | 156.0 | Miles Plumlee | 156.3 | |
Nene Hilario | 156.3 | Khris Middleton | 157.0 | |
Andrei Kirilenko | 157.0 | Marcus Thornton | 158.0 | |
Randy Foye | 157.0 | Courtney Lee | 158.5 | |
Tiago Splitter | 157.0 | James Johnson | 158.7 | |
Amare Stoudemire | 157.5 | Enes Kanter | 159.0 | |
Tony Allen | 157.7 | Kevin Garnett | 159.0 | |
Iman Shumpert | 159.0 | Andrei Kirilenko | 160.0 | |
John Henson | 159.0 | Jeremy Lamb | 160.0 | |
Jonas Jerebko | 159.0 | Anthony Bennett | 162.0 | |
Steve Nash | 159.0 | Anthony Morrow | 162.5 | |
Miles Plumlee | 159.3 | C.J. Watson | 164.0 | |
Martell Webster | 161.0 | Elfrid Payton | 164.3 | |
Andrew Wiggins | 161.3 | Jameer Nelson | 164.7 | |
K.J. McDaniels | 161.3 | Kendall Marshall | 165.0 | |
Marcus Morris | 162.0 | Martell Webster | 165.0 | |
Hollis Thompson | 162.5 | Rudy Gobert | 166.0 | |
Jarrett Jack | 162.7 | Marco Belinelli | 168.0 | |
Brandon Bass | 167.3 | Randy Foye | 168.5 | |
Rodney Stuckey | 168.3 | Shawn Marion | 168.7 | |
Marcus Smart | 169.0 | Jordan Farmar | 169.5 | |
Shaun Livingston | 169.0 | Alec Burks | 170.5 | |
Danny Granger | 170.0 | Danny Granger | 171.0 | |
Gerald Wallace | 170.0 | Marvin Williams | 171.0 | |
Harrison Barnes | 172.0 | Iman Shumpert | 172.5 | |
Gerald Henderson | 173.0 | Devin Harris | 173.0 | |
Dwight Howard | 173.3 | Dion Waiters | 173.7 | |
Devin Harris | 173.5 | Thabo Sefolosha | 174.0 | |
Arnett Moultrie | 174.0 | Tim Hardaway Jr. | 174.0 | |
Jameer Nelson | 174.0 | Marcus Morris | 176.0 | |
Enes Kanter | 175.0 | Shaun Livingston | 177.3 | |
Alan Anderson | 178.0 | J.J. Hickson | 177.5 | |
Boris Diaw | 181.0 | Gerald Henderson | 178.3 | |
Chris Kaman | 181.0 | Gerald Wallace | 179.0 | |
J.J. Hickson | 182.0 | Chris Andersen | 180.0 | |
Jordan Farmar | 182.0 | Mo Williams | 180.0 | |
Alec Burks | 182.5 | Tony Wroten | 180.3 | |
Cody Zeller | 184.0 | Hollis Thompson | 180.5 | |
Kirk Hinrich | 184.0 | Chris Kaman | 181.0 | |
Luis Scola | 185.0 | Jonas Jerebko | 182.0 | |
Shabazz Napier | 186.0 | Omer Asik | 182.3 | |
Dion Waiters | 187.3 | O.J. Mayo | 184.0 | |
Omer Asik | 187.7 | Arnett Moultrie | 185.0 | |
O.J. Mayo | 188.0 | Boris Diaw | 185.3 | |
Mo Williams | 188.7 | Greivis Vasquez | 186.0 | |
Greivis Vasquez | 189.3 | Shabazz Napier | 186.0 | |
Elfrid Payton | 189.7 | Brandon Bass | 186.7 | |
Anthony Bennett | 190.0 | Kirk Hinrich | 189.0 | |
Evan Fournier | 191.0 | Evan Turner | 189.5 | |
Carl Landry | 192.0 | Cody Zeller | 191.0 | |
Evan Turner | 192.0 | Harrison Barnes | 191.0 | |
Rodney Hood | 192.0 | Luis Scola | 193.0 | |
Ramon Sessions | 194.0 | Michael Kidd-Gilchrist | 193.0 | |
Norris Cole | 195.0 | Ramon Sessions | 194.0 | |
Tyler Zeller | 195.0 | Evan Fournier | 195.0 | |
Marreese Speights | 196.0 | Dante Exum, Uta SG | 196.0 | |
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist | 196.0 | Rodney Hood | 196.0 | |
Jordan Crawford | 197.0 | Carl Landry | 197.0 | |
Nik Stauskas | 197.0 | Norris Cole | 197.0 | |
Kendall Marshall | 198.0 | Marreese Speights | 198.0 | |
Solomon Hill | 198.0 | Jordan Crawford | 199.0 | |
Dante Exum, Uta SG | 199.0 | Solomon Hill | 199.0 | |
Tony Wroten | 199.7 | Tyler Zeller | 199.0 | |
Nik Stauskas | 200.0 |
*Some players appeared on one or two projected top-200 lists but not all three, which is why there are more than 200 players for both formats.
How you use this is completely up to you. Jeremy Lin looks like an early-mid round value according to these aggregated projections, but he's typically available toward the latter half of the middle rounds. Should you reach for him in the 60-70 range, or hope that he falls to you even later? Such decisions can only be made on a case-by-case basis, after careful consideration of your league's depth, your team's personnel, your strategy, which weeks are included in your league's playoffs, and much more.
Dwight Howard ranks very low but if you're willing to punt FT% he soars into the top-20 -- such is the power of his league-worst weighted FT%, which is the heaviest anchor of any player in any category. There's also a bias toward established players, it seems, as many fading veterans are given lenient projections while many young guys are short-shrifted. This is a tool to help you draft the best team possible in roto and H2H leagues, not a 1-2-3 cheat-sheet that will tell you how to pick your team.
For a ton of other draft tips, strategies and insights, dig through the archive of my 'Numbers Game' columns. And follow me on Twitter for season-long player updates, stats and fantasy advice.
Enjoy, and good luck this season. We're only a few days away!
*Some players appeared on one or two projected top-200 lists but not all three, which is why there are more than 200 players for both formats.
How you use this is completely up to you. Jeremy Lin looks like an early-mid round value according to these aggregated projections, but he's typically available toward the latter half of the middle rounds. Should you reach for him in the 60-70 range, or hope that he falls to you even later? Such decisions can only be made on a case-by-case basis, after careful consideration of your league's depth, your team's personnel, your strategy, which weeks are included in your league's playoffs, and much more. There's also a bias toward established players, it seems, as many fading veterans are given lenient projections while many young guys are short-shrifted. This is a tool to help you draft the best team possible, not a 1-2-3 cheat-sheet that will tell you how to pick your team.
For a ton of other draft tips, strategies and insights, dig through the archive of my 'Numbers Game' columns. And follow me on Twitter for season-long player updates, stats and fantasy advice.
While spending the past few days coaxing Excel spreadsheets into submission, some statistical glitches came to my attention. For instance, the world-wide leader in sports hasn't provided stat projections for Draymond Green, Rudy Gobert, Solomon Hill, P.J. Tucker, Bojan Bogdanovic, Nikola Mirotic or Doug McDermott. They also have a few guys like Al Harrington listed at 12.3 points, 1.4 triples, 5.4 rebounds, 1.3 assists and 0.8 steals in 24 minutes per game, even though he's currently playing in China. I deleted him from the analysis, along with some other oddballs (Baron Davis, Jason Kidd, Lester Hudson, Delonte West, etc.). In other words, I did my best to smooth the rough edges without altering the fundamental picture that arose from the data.
Enjoy, and good luck this season. We're only a few days away!