Positional Fallers: SF

Khris Middleton, DeMarre Carroll and Draymond Green were all regularly selected in fantasy basketball drafts after Luol Deng before the 2014-15 campaign began. Whoops.

Jeff Green had a higher ADP than Giannis Antetokounmpo or DeMarre Carroll. Ouch.

The small forward crop is a volatile one, but the right pick can swing the direction of a team to either side. One smart investment can have one owners feeling good and one sour grape can ruin the whole bunch.

This week, we’re looking at some premium names, but not all of them have shrinking games.

ADPs can be found here. Click here to see next season’s expected point guard fallers and here for shooting guards.

Luol Deng, SF Miami Heat (Player Option)

2014 ADP: 83.17 overall, Round 7.72

Key Stats: 14.0 points, 5.2 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 1.5 TO, 0.9 steals, 1.1 3-pointers, 46.9% shooting, 76.1% FT shooting

I’m just not sure what folks continue to see in Luol Deng that forces those same owners to invest in him at an inflated rate. His scoring has declined in three straight seasons, Deng does not offer much in terms of his versatility and he is not going to find himself as the primary or secondary option on offense on any team at this stage of his career. Is that suddenly going to change as we prepare to enter the 2015-16 season?

Deng’s value is also going to be dependent on whether or not he remains in Miami, but let’s operate under the scenario that he will stay put as it’s hard to imagine him finding an offer that exceeds $10 million annually on the open market. He’ll be the fifth mouth to feed in a starting lineup that includes Goran Dragic, Dwyane Wade*, Chris Bosh and Hassan Whiteside. Where are Deng’s touches coming from? You can bet on all four of those players exceeding double-digit shot attempts regularly.

Deng was drafted ahead of players like Tobias Harris, Middleton, Antetokounmpo, Green and Carroll this season. That’s not going to repeat this year, and Deng’s fall down into the lower third of the small forward ranks should surprise nobody.

Nicolas Batum, SF Portland Trail Blazers

2014 ADP: 27.29 overall, Round 2.84

Key Stats: 9.4 points, 5.9 rebounds, 4.8 assists, 1.9 TO, 1.1 steals, 0.6 blocks, 1.4 3-pointers, 40.0% shooting, 85.7% FT shooting

Nicolas Batum was bad last season, and that’s being kind. Whether it was an ongoing wrist concern that impacted his shooting or just an undefined role that forced Batum out of a comfort zone he previously enjoyed, Batum emerged as one of the most disappointing picks and biggest busts in all of fantasy basketball.

Now, as Portland enters an offseason of uncertainty that could even have Batum dealt to a new club, there is no certainty about what Batum will be going forward. The Blazers have LaMarcus Aldridge, Wesley Matthews and Robin Lopez all ticketed for unrestricted free agency, and if the club has intentions of keeping all three and still paying Damian Lillard as their franchise player (and they will), Neil Olshey and co. are going to have to get awfully creative in how they build the roster. It wasn’t all that long ago that Batum was ready to leave Portland in free agency after signing a lucrative four-year offer sheet with the Minnesota Timberwolves, and now the Blazers may be ready to move on from Batum.

If Batum winds up remaining with the Blazers and Portland waves goodbye to Matthews and Lopez, Batum could actually wind up being a nice value pick because he could assume the larger role he once enjoyed on that team. However, if Batum winds up elsewhere in a new setting and unfamiliar surroundings, Batum may be someone to avoid entirely given all of the talent we saw emerge on the wing during the 2014-15 campaign. Unless Batum can turn the clock back to 2012-13 when he did his best Andrei Kirilenko impression (14.3 points, 5.6 rebounds, 4.9 assists, 1.2 steals, 1.1 blocks, 2.3 triples, 46.5% shooting), he’s simply too big of a question mark to roll the dice on with so many other appealing options.

Chandler Parsons, SF Dallas Mavericks

2014 ADP: 42.63 overall, Round 4.20

Key Stats: 15.7 points, 4.9 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 1.5 TO, 1.0 steals, 2.0 3-pointers, 46.2% shooting, 72.0% FT shooting

The first season of the Chandler Parsons show in Dallas was a disappointment. After being billed as the big free agent steal that Mark Cuban pilfered from the state rival Houston Rockets, Parsons underwhelmed, underperformed and ended his season before the rest of his teammates due to a knee condition that forced Parsons under the knife. And although the Mavs have called the procedure a successful one, it’s still unclear if Parsons will be ready for training camp after possibly undergoing microfracture surgery. That is not exactly an encouraging sentence.

Those who drafted Parsons last year will almost certainly avoid him this time around due to the sour taste left in their mouths from a disappointing season, and his 2014 ADP was also inflated because of the fact that he changed teams. There are a handful of players every season who wind up getting overdrafted due to free agency, draft or simply because of name value, and Parsons checks off two of those three boxes in this scenario. If he can prove himself healthy before the season starts (which is a monumental if for the reasons outlined above), Parsons could actually emerge as a value pick for owners willing to give him another chance.

Monta Ellis won’t be back in Dallas if he declines his player option as he’s widely expected to do, Dirk Nowitzki is another year older and we already know Rajon Rondo isn’t walking through that door. Considering head coach Rick Carlisle is already going on the record saying Parsons’ responsibilities will grow during his second season with the Mavs, Parsons is a player to watch very carefully as we move into July and August ahead of training camps in September.

Jeff Green, SF Memphis Grizzlies (Player Option)

2014 ADP: 94.03 overall, Round 8.66

Key Stats (w/ MEM): 13.1 points, 4.2 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 1.2 TO, 0.6 steals, 0.5 blocks, 1.1 3-pointers, 42.7% shooting, 82.5% FT shooting

The Memphis Grizzlies found out what we all knew about Jeff Green after trading for him this season: Name>Game.

This isn’t a shot at Green, who has returned to the NBA and created an inspirational path after being forced to sit out an entire season. This is about Green’s value as a player and specifically how he can help fantasy owners. Considering he just doesn’t really do any one thing particularly well, it’s hard to rationalize why Green keeps getting overdrafted.

Green doesn’t score a ton, doesn’t rebound the basketball particularly well, and doesn’t contribute in peripheral stats with enough emphasis to overlook his deficiencies. Although he shoots it well from the charity stripe, Green gets to the line at a career rate of 3.5 attempts per game, and that’s not going to be a difference-maker of any kind for owners who need someone to swing a category. Let someone else take another chance on Green’s “potential” and target a specialist instead.