Curry Does It Again

Sports are just the best. Thursday night was another one of those moments when we ask ourselves, “How the heck do people not like sports?”

Stephen Curry hit a contested fadeaway 3-pointer with two seconds left to cap a 20-point, fourth-quarter comeback and send the game to overtime before the Warriors pulled out the Game 3 win (video here). The Pelicans somehow left him open for a split second and it proved costly. Quincy Pondexter lost him after a miss and now the Warriors are going for the sweep on Saturday. This picture says it all (via NBA.com):

You have to love all the Pelicans fans knowing this shot was going in. They were right and Curry caught nothing but net. The future 2014-15 MVP finished with 40 points, five rebounds, nine assists and seven 3-pointers. He was the top player in fantasy for standard leagues this season and he’s a strong candidate to be the top pick in the fall.

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As for the other Warriors, Klay Thompson didn’t have a great game with 28 points, six rebounds, two assists, two blocks and six 3-pointers on 9-of-21 from the field. Still, his six treys give him an effective field goal percentage of 57.1, so he was good in that aspect. He’s been over 21 points in all three games and you just know a big game is coming soon.

Draymond Green also had another fat stat line in major minutes, scoring 12 points with 17 boards, five assists, three steals, one block and one turnover in 40 minutes. It’s his third straight game with at least 40 minutes and his numbers have not diluted with the extra playing time. Green was already a top-20 player with 31.5 minutes per game during the regular season, so he might be a top-12 guy if the Warriors give him 34-36 minutes next season. Of course, they’re going to have to ante up to keep him this offseason. There’s more on Dray below.

One last interesting thing on the Warrior rotation is Shaun Livingston getting 20 minutes. His playing time might be going up after there was talk he wouldn’t be in the playoff rotation earlier this month. If that’s the case, there will be fewer minutes for Leandro Barbosa, Harrison Barnes and Andre Iguodala. Barnes bounced back on Thursday with 11 points, seven rebounds, two assists, one steal and one 3-pointer in 37 minutes. He’s the least likely to lose minutes of those three just mentioned.

Anthony Davis did his thing again. He filled it up with 29 points, 15 boards, three assists, two steals and three blocks on 11-of-22 from the field. His usage rate is up to 31.1 in the postseason from 27.6 in the regular season, so it’s not just the minutes increase. He’s going to be a monster for the next decade.

Besides him, Jrue Holiday looked solid in his return with 10 points in 17 minutes. He’ll have a minutes limit again on Saturday and his risk is huge heading into next season. You’re not going to want to draft him until the last few rounds. Norris Cole stepped up with 16 points in 26 minutes, but he played out of his mind in the second quarter with 11 points in that frame. I’d peg him for around eight points in Game 4.

The other interesting development was Ryan Anderson getting 30 minutes, scoring 26 points on 10-of-14 from the field. The Pelicans were at their best by far when he was out there, so expect him to get minutes in the 30s again on Saturday.

Before Curry went off, the story of the night was Derrick Rose. He looked like the MVP version of himself in a 113-106 overtime win, scoring 34 points with five rebounds, eight assists, three steals and five 3-pointers in 48 minutes. The 48 minutes are probably the headline of that stat line, but obviously 34 points deserve that distinction as well.

Rose really showed the full arsenal. He had pull-ups, drives, catch-and-shoots and also made some terrific passes. Here’s what his shot chart looked like:

Besides a few too many contested mid-range shots, that’s pretty impressive stuff. Especially the 3-pointers, which was the most he's ever made in a playoff game. Rose’s confidence was off the charts and the Bulls will probably coach him up to take it easy on the long twos. Still, this game was truly awesome.

As for fantasy next season, we still need to remember the risk factor. The problem with Rose is the reason why he’s so great is the reason why he’s at risk to get hurt. He gets his buckets off quick cuts/movement, which raises the probability of an injury. We’ll worry about his fantasy value next season. Let’s just enjoy watching him for the next few weeks. For DFS, I would absolutely consider using him right now.

Tony Snell basically stepped in to Nikola Mirotic’s minutes and didn’t disappoint with 16 points in 27 minutes. He was scorching hot with clutch shots, so he’ll likely be in the teens in Game 4, assuming he doesn’t start hot again. Taj Gibson also saw an uptick in minutes with 29, scoring six points with 10 boards and one block. He’ll be close to 30 again.

Jimmy Butler is really good. He scored 24 points and wasn’t even close to being at his best. He’s going to be a usage stud going forward.

In case you’re wondering, here’s what the Bulls lineups looked like from Game 3:

Moving to the Bucks, Michael Carter-Williams really needs to chill with the 20-shot games. On Thursday, he made 9-of-21 from the field for 19 points. He’s been dead last on effective field goal percentage in each of his two seasons (among qualifiers), and it’s been worse in the playoffs. Here’s his shot chart in three games:

He’s actually been solid on the longer twos, which is usually his undoing. MCW will need a ton of work in the offseason.

Giannis Antetokounmpo was amazing in the first half, finishing with 25 points, 12 boards, two assists, two blocks and three turnovers 51 minutes. He’s clearly going to be unleashed next season and his ceiling is as high as anyone. If he develops a 3-pointer, he could be a first-rounder for fantasy next season. I’d probably consider grabbing him in the 45-55 range, which is probably too low.

You could argue the biggest story from a fantasy side of things for the Bucks was John Henson. He played 39 minutes with 15 points, 14 boards, one steal and three blocks. Henson played the final 27 minutes on Thursday and did a terrific job protecting the rim. Before tonight, he didn't log 27 minutes in an entire game since Mar. 9. The Bucks usually have some decent perimeter defense, but that wasn’t the case on Thursday. He’s been very good this entire series, so coach Jason Kidd could actually play him 30 minutes in Game 4. Of course, he could wind up playing him 14 minutes. I’d bet on the former, though.

As for the first game of the night, the Cavs were able to lock down a 3-0 lead in a very close game in Boston based on the final score of 103-95. However, the game really had a feel of a double-digit victory. The Cavs were much more efficient that the Celtics, but their struggles at the line (15-of-24) may have kept Boston in the game.

LeBron James was in the driver seat for this one, scoring 31 points with 11 rebounds, four assists, four steals, two blocks and one 3-pointer on 13-of-26 from the field. He was in one of his “get whatever he wants” modes today and this line could have been a lot bigger. In fact, LeBron was just 5-of-10 in the restricted area and many of those were somewhat easy layups — for him anyway. He also was just 1-of-5 from deep, so this could have easily been a 40-point game.

Kyrie Irving slowed down with just 13 points, but who cares? He’ll go off again and his improvement as a catch-and-shoot guy is one of the most unheralded storylines of the Cavs this year.

Kevin Love was terrific in the win, scoring 23 points with six 3-pointers and nine treys. It’s taken a long time, but he’s really shown some improvement in moving without the ball. That’s the kind of player the Cavs need and their offense is arguably the most dangerous now that Love is embracing the role he was expected to fill coming into this season.

Coach Brad Stevens really mixed it up on Thursday with his rotation. Here’s a look at it on the whole:

That’s 19 (!) different lineups in a playoff game. That has a lot to do with Jae Crowder and Jonas Jerebko starting the second half, which increases the combos. Stevens has a knack for going with a change to his lineups at the break, but it’s usually to his center spot. If I had to guess, the Celtics will likely stick with their normal starting five in Game 4 on Sunday.

Isaiah Thomas (five points and two assists on 2-of-9 from the field) and Marcus Smart (eight points and one assist on 2-of-6 from the field) really struggled, so it was Evan Turner running the offense. Turner finished with 19 points, eight boards, eight assists and two steals in 33 minutes. Thomas should be better, so expect more of him than Turner in Game 4.

Crowder was very good on offense, making 5-of-6 from the field for 16 points with seven boards, four assists, two steals, two blocks and two 3-pointers in 31 minutes. He’s earned more playing time and should be solid in Game 4. His 2015-16 value is a huge question mark with the Celtics likely to have some personnel changes. Jerebko (four points and seven boards in 25 minutes) didn’t play nearly as well as Crowder, so he’s less likely to match his 25 minutes.

On the news side of things, Kawhi Leonard was named 2014-15 Defensive Player of the Year on Thursday. It was an extremely close race and Draymond Green actually had more first-place votes. There were some crazy votes and you can check those out here. I was shocked to find out the number of people who didn’t vote for Kawhi or Draymond Green first or second. A handful of voters didn’t have Green or Kawhi in the top three, which is almost embarrassing. Just for fun, here’s a look at some SportVU stats on defense up until the last week of the regular season. Draymond Green is on top, Rudy Gobert is second, Kawhi Leonard is third and DeAndre Jordan is fourth.

Yes, rebounding is important, but DeAndre Jordan doesn't compare here. The way Draymond locks down his guy once he has the ball is absurd. Sure, there’s a lot more to defense than while the guy has the ball and Kawhi is one of the best ball deniers in the league. Personally, I have no beef with Kawhi winning it at all, but I’m really just bothered by how under-appreciated Draymond is. If I had a vote, it would have been Draymond first, Kawhi second and Rudy Gobert third.

Lastly on Dray, he had an awesome quote yesterday. “Al Gore won the popular vote and didn't get elected president so I'm not gonna beat myself up over not winning Defensive Player of the Year,” Green said. How can you not love this guy?

Anyway, let’s talk about Kawhi for a bit. Yeah, his defense gets the mainstream talk this week. However, if you saw him on Wednesday night, you may have seen him look terrific in isolation. Although, he’s been making his money in this postseason on no-dribble shots, but I digress. Coach Gregg Popovich lived up to his word from last June that Kawhi would have more chances to make plays. Here’s a look at his frequency (percentage of his field goal attempts) and efficiency on his shots based on dribbles. The top part is from all of last season and the bottom is his post-break numbers from the 2014-15 season:

The 1-6 dribbles is crazy. Not only is his frequency up by a ton on 3-6, but the efficiency is up, as well. He’s still only 23 years old and this was just his first season being unleashed as a primary-type scorer when he wants to be. He has the length, quickness, touch and creativity to be an elite scorer.

As for fantasy, what else is there to say? The guy is a superstar. In his last 25 games of the season, Kawhi was the third-best player in standard fantasy leagues. Third! Only Chris Paul and Stephen Curry were ahead of him and it was close, too. If you drafted him in the first round, you were rewarded handsomely. This time around, nobody is going to think twice when you take him in the top 10. Maybe even top five because he hasn’t even hit his ceiling yet.

Joel Embiid is going to take part in summer league. If you were on the fence about going to summer league or even just watching it on TV, this news probably puts you over the top. Also, I’ll be covering it from Las Vegas like last year, so look out for that. The 2014 summer league crop was insane, headlined by Rudy Gobert, C.J. McCollum, Andrew Wiggins, Jabari Parker, Rodney Hood and Nerlens Noel. I can’t wait.

Nikola Mirotic is likely going to miss Game 4 for the Bulls. That shouldn’t be a problem because now the Bulls are healthy everywhere else. Tony Snell made that clear.

Injuries to track heading into Friday night:

Houston at Dallas

Rajon Rondo (back, out indefinitely) - Coach Rick Carlisle said he doesn’t think Rondo will be with Dallas ever again. One thing that’s clear is Rondo is no longer going to be viewed as the best point guard on the court most nights going forward. As for who benefits for now, there’s more on that below.

Chandler Parsons (knee, out for playoffs) - The Mavericks announced he’s done for the season on Wednesday. He’ll likely have a knee procedure, but he should be fine for next season. Parsons did not quite live up to his contract, but he still was a top-60 player for fantasy. He’ll probably be going off the board in the fifth round next year. Also, it’s worth mentioning he was 44th in standard leagues before Rondo came to town. As for the two-plus games remaining this season for Dallas, Richard Jefferson and Al-Farouq Aminu will step up. If I’m looking for a DFS play, it would be ALF. RJ doesn’t do much on D and his usage rate on offense is usually tiny anyway.

Devin Harris (toe, will play) - Harris has been dealing with a toe issue for most of April. The Mavs didn’t tape up his big toe properly earlier this month, which caused some discomfort to his second toe. That toe was surgically-repaired in the past, so the Mavs should do a better job going forward. Harris should be able to log minutes in the mid-20s. Based on his usage to go with some steals, treys and dime numbers, he’d be my pick to benefit over J.J. Barea, who will likely start. Of course, there’s always some risk because of an aggravation, so I’d probably just roll Devin the Dude on GPPs.

Toronto at Washington

Kyle Lowry (shin, will play) - John Wall has shut him down and he’ll continue to shut him down. He’s not someone I’d want to use in DFS.

Coach Dwane Casey also had a great quote worth mentioning. “If you’re not going to Washington to compete, don’t come out to the airport,” Casey said. “We’ll get you a nice meal somewhere in Toronto at a nice restaurant and you can watch it on television. No one stepped forward so that meant that everyone who gets on the plane is ready to compete.”

Nice.

LA Clippers at San Antonio

Tony Parker (Achilles, questionable) - He is just dealing with tightness, so Parker might be able to suit up. He even said following Game 2 that he expects to play in Game 3. Still, he just didn’t look right at all during Game 2, so it’s really hard to trust him as a fantasy asset. If he’s not going to play, Patty Mills would likely benefit the most after a very impressive finish to Game 2. He was a rock star, but we knew that already:

Enjoy the games this weekend!