Players to Avoid: NL East

We recently finished hitting the fantasy risers for each division, players who are firmly trending in the right direction heading into 2015. Now we turn our attention to players on the opposite end of the spectrum, what we call players to avoid. It's important to note that we don't mean "avoid" in the literal sense -- all the players will likely be drafted in standard fantasy leagues next year. We're not advocating against the Adeiny Hechavarria types, because avoiding those players should be obvious. Rather, we mean that, for whatever reason, their cost on draft day will likely fall short of their value next year. With that said, let's take a look at the National League East.

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David Wright, 3B, Mets

The caveat with Wright has long been the phrase "when healthy" -- when healthy, Wright is a top-30 player and one of the best at his position. The problem, then, is that Wright is rarely healthy. The third baseman has had just one season since 2010 in which he's played more than 135 games, and, predictably, he put up terrific numbers that year. Wright is an incredibly productive fantasy player...when healthy.

Wright was shut down after 134 games this past season due to inflammation in his left rotator cuff. He's been resting the shoulder and isn't expected to need surgery, but it's another mark on his long injury history. If Wright stays healthy and plays a full slate of games next season, he'll almost surely produce. But that's an increasingly bleak proposition for the soon to be 32-year-old, and it's too risky to pay top dollar or use an early-round pick on.

Wilson Ramos, C, Nationals

See: Wright, David. Ramos, like Wright, is supremely talented, one of the best hitting catchers in baseball when he's on the field. Unlike Wright, Ramos has never even been able to stay healthy for an entire season. The 27-year-old's career high in games played is 113, and he hasn't played more than 88 since 2011.

The talent is undeniable, and even injury-shortened seasons for Ramos look better than full seasons for many catchers. But with the emergence of players like Devin Mesoraco and Yan Gomes, catcher is deeper than it has been in recent memory. Ramos makes for an extremely attractive flyer, but relying on him as a first option is a recipe for disappointment.

Nick Markakis, OF, Braves

Markakis is a fine player, as evidenced by the Braves signing him to a four-year, $44 million deal earlier this offseason, but his best days as a fantasy player are behind him. He'll likely continue to do well the things he's always done well -- Markakis is usually good for an average around .275, a few homers and 80 runs scored -- but the move to a new club and a new home ballpark shouldn't be overlooked.

The Braves signed Markakis because they traded away Jason Heyward, the first move in what could be a busy offseason for the Braves trading away offensive assets. Batting atop a lineup without Justin Upton and/or Evan Gattis means fewer runs scored for Markakis, who Braves manager Fredi Gonzalez has already tabbed as the expected leadoff hitter. Consider also that while Markakis has reached double digits in home runs in every year of his career, the life-long Oriole will now play his home games in Turner Field. Whereas OPACY was the third-most homer friendly park for left-handed hitters in 2014, Turner Field ranked near the middle. Fewer home runs and fewer runs scored -- not to mention impending neck surgery that may threaten his readiness for Opening Day -- makes Markakis a lot less attractive of an option going forward.

Casey McGehee, 3B, Marlins

If you owned McGehee in 2014, congratulations. Just don't let it happen again. The 32-year-old came out of nowhere -- or rather, Japan -- to bat .287 with 76 RBI this past season, propelling him onto fantasy radars and, in many cases, rosters.

McGehee enjoyed good fortune (.335 BABIP) and good circumstances -- a dearth of capable hitters left McGehee to bat behind Giancarlo Stanton -- en route to winning the NL Comeback Player of the Year, but neither should be counted on in 2015. With an eye on contention, the Marlins are set on acquiring a first baseman who can hit behind Stanton, and someone like Marcell Ozuna could also challenge McGehee for a spot in the middle of the Marlins' order. Along with that, if his BABIP regresses to something closer to his .297 career average, much of what made McGehee attractive in 2014 won't be present next season.

Henderson Alvarez, SP, Marlins

Some might see a 24-year-old pitcher who won 12 games and had a 2.65 ERA in 2014 and expect to see his arrow pointing firmly up. With Alvarez, expectations need to be tempered. Despite a career year that saw him throw three shutouts, the ceiling on Alvarez is limited.

The right-hander doesn't strike people out -- he fanned just 14.4 percent of batters faced this past season, well below the league average of 20.4 -- and he was able to strand more runners than he has over the course of his career. A groundball pitcher also relies on a bit of luck to get outs, meaning his 2.65 ERA is likely more fluky than sustainable. Alvarez is a wonderful, young, improving pitcher for the Marlins, but he has little more to offer fantasy owners.

Michael Cuddyer, OF, Mets

Cuddyer could easily fall under the health-dependent theme, but even a full season from Cuddyer is likely to disappoint in 2015. The 35-year-old thoroughly enjoyed his three years in Colorado, winning a batting title in 2013 and netting him a two-year, $21 million contract from the Mets this winter.

While his bank account surely appreciates the deal, the move won't be so friendly to his stat line. It's hardly a coincidence that Cuddyer posted a batting average over .300 for the first time in his career in 2013 -- and again in 2014 -- while hitting at spacious Coors Field. That Cuddyer also showed renewed power is not surprising. Cuddyer still has some life left in his bat and shouldn't be counted out entirely, but recent editions of Cuddyer shouldn't be expected.

Tanner Roark, SP, Nationals

As with Alvarez, Roark is a player whose name may well be found in many "players to watch" articles in the coming months -- he received a mention from D.J. Short in his Fantasy Risers column a few weeks back -- but it's unclear how much more upside he has after going 15-10 with a 2.85 ERA in 31 starts for the Nationals this past season. The feat was even more noteworthy given that Roark entered spring without a guaranteed spot in the rotation. The 28-year-old certainly managed to turn heads with his performance.

Roark should once again be a serviceable member of the Nats' rotation, but his skillset -- not walking batters and relying on weak contact to get outs -- doesn't translate well to the fantasy realm. Winning 15 games isn't out of the question on a team as good as the Nationals, but chasing wins is folly. Roark could still be a useful pitcher, but he may have set the bar too high this past season to be a value.