Pitching Projections Review
Up this week is the first of three columns reviewing preseason projections. This one focuses on the starting pitchers, starting with my overall top 25 and then continuing on with others notable for being good or bad or at least interesting. I’ll be doing the same for hitters the next two weeks.
Starting Pitching Projections Review
Top 25
1. Clayton Kershaw - Dodgers
Projection: 18-6, 2.31 ERA, 1.036 WHIP, 197 K in 195 IP
2014 stats: 21-3, 1.77 ERA, 0.857 WHIP, 239 K in 198 1/3 IP
Underprojecting strikeout totals is going to be something of a running theme here. It used to be safe to expect strikeout rates to diminish a bit annually after a pitcher’s first few years in the leagues. That’s not the case any longer. Kershaw went from 9.57 K/9 IP in 2011 to 9.05 in 2012 to 8.85 in 2013 to 10.85 this year. My projection put him at 9.09.
2. Cliff Lee - Phillies
Projection: 16-10, 3.07 ERA, 1.065 WHIP, 208 K in 217 IP
2014 stats: 4-5, 3.65 ERA, 1.377 WHIP, 72 K in 81 1/3 IP
3. Stephen Strasburg - Nationals
Projection: 16-7, 2.84 ERA, 1.088 WHIP, 215 K in 196 2/3 IP
2014 stats: 14-11, 3.14 ERA, 1.121 WHIP, 242 K in 215 IP
Strasburg finished 16th in the NL in ERA, but fourth in FIP, third in K/BB ratio and second to Kershaw in xFIP and strikeout rate. He was better than the line above suggests, and I imagine I’ll have him in the top five for SPs again next year.
4. Justin Verlander - Tigers
Projection: 18-9, 3.13 ERA, 1.152 WHIP, 213 K in 227 1/3 IP
2014 stats: 15-12, 4.54 ERA, 1.398 WHIP, 159 K in 206 IP
Verlander, on the other hand, will probably be in the 25-30 range. I expect he’ll improve as he continues to make adjustments to deal with diminished stuff, and he’ll still be about as good of a bet as any hurler to turn in a 200-inning season. Still, it’s doubtful that the ERA and WHIP are coming all of the way back down.
5. Felix Hernandez - Mariners
Projection: 16-10, 3.06 ERA, 1.135 WHIP, 216 K in 220 1/3 IP
2014 stats: 15-6, 2.14 ERA, 0.915 WHIP, 248 K in 236 IP
The 0.915 WHIP was the second lowest mark for an AL starter in the last 40 years, trailing only Pedro Martinez’s insane 0.737 WHIP in 2000.
6. Madison Bumgarner - Giants
Projection: 16-9, 2.96 ERA, 1.097 WHIP, 189 K in 209 2/3 IP
2014 stats: 18-10, 2.98 ERA, 1.090 WHIP, 219 K in 217 1/3 IP
Even though he’ll be more expensive than ever, I could see Bumgarner remaining underrated next year. His stuff is improving with age, and while that trend can’t continue forever, I don’t think he’s had his career year yet.
7. Adam Wainwright - Cardinals
Projection: 17-10, 3.07 ERA, 1.135 WHIP, 196 K in 223 IP
2014 stats: 20-9, 2.38 ERA, 1.031 WHIP, 179 K in 227 IP
8. Max Scherzer - Tigers
Projection: 17-8, 3.22 ERA, 1.159 WHIP, 222 K in 209 2/3 IP
2014 stats: 18-5, 3.15 ERA, 1.175 WHIP, 252 K in 220 1/3 IP
9. David Price - Rays/Tigers
Projection: 16-8, 3.02 ERA, 1.082 WHIP, 169 K in 202 1/3 IP
2014 stats: 15-12, 3.26 ERA, 1.079 WHIP, 271 K in 248 1/3 IP
I can’t imagine that I’d ever before been off by 100 strikeouts on what was an otherwise decent looking projection. Of course, the innings count was a big part of that. Still, Price went from 7.28 K/9 IP in 2013 to 9.82 this year. I had him at 7.50.
10. Yu Darvish - Rangers
Projection: 17-7, 3.17 ERA, 1.195 WHIP, 226 K in 201 2/3 IP
2014 stats: 10-7, 3.06 ERA, 1.261 WHIP, 182 K in 144 1/3 IP
11. Jose Fernandez - Marlins
Projection: 14-7, 2.70 ERA, 1.147 WHIP, 203 K in 190 IP
2014 stats: 4-2, 2.44 ERA, 0.948 WHIP, 70 K in 51 2/3 IP
Sadness.
12. Alex Cobb - Rays
Projection: 16-9, 3.11 ERA, 1.125 WHIP, 182 K in 205 1/3 IP
2014 stats: 10-9, 2.87 ERA, 1.136 WHIP, 149 K in 166 1/3 IP
13. Chris Sale - White Sox
Projection: 15-8, 3.19 ERA, 1.125 WHIP, 187 K in 192 IP
2014 stats: 12-4, 2.17 ERA, 0.966 WHIP, 208 K in 174 IP
Like Bumgarner, Sale threw harder than ever before this year. When he was on the mound, he was the AL’s best starter and not far off Kershaw’s level. I still worry about the arm, and I’ll probably have him ranked lower than most next year, though I’m not looking forward to it.
14. Matt Cain - Giants
Projection: 15-11, 3.28 ERA, 1.133 WHIP, 175 K in 211 IP
2014 stats: 2-7, 4.18 ERA, 1.251 WHIP, 70 K in 90 1/3 IP
15. Michael Wacha - Giants
Projection: 14-8, 3.09 ERA, 1.157 WHIP, 185 K in 189 1/3 IP
2014 stats: 5-6, 3.20 ERA, 1.196 WHIP, 94 K in 107 IP
16. James Shields - Royals
Projection: 15-11, 3.39 ERA, 1.179 WHIP, 195 K in 218 IP
2014 stats: 14-8, 3.21 ERA, 1.181 WHIP, 180 K in 227 IP
Shields isn’t one of the guys bucking the old trends when it comes to strikeout rates; since peaking at 8.82 K/9 IP in 2012, he’s dropped off to 7.71 and 7.14 the last two years. Oddly enough, though, he’s actually throwing a bit harder now than he did 3-5 years ago.
17. Zack Greinke - Dodgers
Projection: 15-9, 3.20 ERA, 1.184 WHIP, 185 K in 202 2/3 IP
2014 stats: 17-8, 2.71 ERA, 1.152 WHIP, 207 K in 202 1/3 IP
Greinke’s K/9 IPs have always been all over the place.
2008: 8.14
2009: 9.50
2010: 7.40
2011: 10.54
2012: 9.48
2013: 7.50
2014: 9.21
I recommended shying away from him this year because of the drop in his strikeout rate in 2013. He ended up turning in an outstanding year, even though he actually had a .311 BABIP (the league average was .295).
18. Jordan Zimmermann - Nationals
Projection: 16-10, 3.37 ERA, 1.157 WHIP, 166 K in 208 1/3 IP
2014 stats: 14-5, 2.66 ERA, 1.072 WHIP, 182 K in 199 2/3 IP
I never thought Zimmermann had quite that much upside. He had come in at 6.92, 7.04 and 6.79 K/9 IP before jumping up to 8.20 this year.
19. Homer Bailey - Reds
Projection: 15-9, 3.36 ERA, 1.159 WHIP, 183 K in 201 IP
2014 stats: 9-5, 3.71 ERA, 1.229 WHIP, 124 K in 145 2/3 IP
20. Masahiro Tanaka - Yankees
Projection: 16-9, 3.42 ERA, 1.164 WHIP, 175 K in 202 2/3 IP
2014 stats: 13-5, 2.77 ERA, 1.056 WHIP, 141 K in 136 1/3 IP
21. Cole Hamels - Phillies
Projection: 12-9, 3.27 ERA, 1.136 WHIP, 169 K in 178 2/3 IP
2014 stats: 9-9, 2.46 ERA, 1.148 WHIP, 198 K in 204 2/3 IP
22. Doug Fister - Nationals
Projection: 13-8, 3.14 ERA, 1.122 WHIP, 138 K in 174 2/3 IP
2014 stats: 16-6, 2.41 ERA, 1.079 WHIP, 98 K in 164 IP
Hamels and Fister were supposed to open the year 12th and 13th, respectively, before their preseason injuries. Hamels ended up pitching 200 innings anyway.
23. Gio Gonzalez - Nationals
Projection: 16-9, 3.31 ERA, 1.250 WHIP, 197 K in 204 IP
2014 stats: 10-10, 3.57 ERA, 1.197 WHIP, 162 K in 158 2/3 IP
24. Gerrit Cole - Pirates
Projection: 14-9, 3.29 ERA, 1.199 WHIP, 174 K in 194 1/3 IP
2014 stats: 11-5, 3.65 ERA, 1.210 WHIP, 138 K in 138 IP
25. Mat Latos - Reds
Projection: 14-9, 3.50 ERA, 1.194 WHIP, 173 K in 193 2/3 IP
2014 stats: 5-5, 3.25 ERA, 1.153 WHIP, 74 K in 102 1/3 IP
Other projections:
28. Hyun-Jin Ryu - Dodgers
Projection: 14-9, 3.39 ERA, 1.200 WHIP, 165 K in 196 2/3 IP
2014 stats: 14-7, 3.38 ERA, 1.191 WHIP, 139 K in 152 IP
29. R.A. Dickey - Blue Jays
Projection: 15-11, 3.74 ERA, 1.195 WHIP, 169 K in 216 2/3 IP
2014 stats: 14-13, 3.71 ERA, 1.229 WHIP, 173 K in 215 2/3 IP
30. Johnny Cueto - Reds
Projection: 14-8, 3.36 ERA, 1.203 WHIP, 149 K in 190 1/3 IP
2014 stats: 20-9, 2.25 ERA, 0.960 WHIP, 242 K in 243 2/3 IP
34. Jon Lester - Red Sox/Athletics
Projection: 16-9, 3.71 ERA, 1.265 WHIP, 177 K in 206 1/3 IP
2014 stats: 16-11, 2.46 ERA, 1.102 WHIP, 220 K in 219 2/3 IP
Lester struck out 3.5 batters for everyone he walked in 2009, his high water mark as a major leaguer. Every year since, he had finished in the 2.4-2.7 range. In 2014, he ended up striking out 4.6 batters for every one he walked. His strikeout rate was about 20 percent higher than in 2013 and his walk rate was about 33 percent lower. I didn’t see that one coming.
35. Clay Buchholz - Red Sox
Projection: 15-7, 3.55 ERA, 1.221 WHIP, 154 K in 190 IP
2014 stats: 8-11, 5.34 ERA, 1.386 WHIP, 132 K in 170 1/3 IP
36. Chris Archer - Rays
Projection: 14-8, 3.54 ERA, 1.247 WHIP, 175 K in 195 2/3 IP
2014 stats: 10-9, 3.33 ERA, 1.279 WHIP, 173 K in 194 2/3 IP
37. Jeff Samardzija - Cubs/Athletics
Projection: 14-11, 3.71 ERA, 1.260 WHIP, 196 K in 206 1/3 IP
2014 stats: 7-13, 2.99 ERA, 1.065 WHIP, 202 K in 219 2/3 IP
41. Francisco Liriano - Pirates
Projection: 13-7, 3.33 ERA, 1.291 WHIP, 172 K in 165 IP
2014 stats: 7-10, 3.38 ERA, 1.300 WHIP, 175 K in 162 1/3 IP
Wonky won-loss record aside, this must be the first time I’ve ever nailed a Liriano projection. He’s been the game’s least projectable pitcher.
44. Jered Weaver - Angels
Projection: 12-10, 3.61 ERA, 1.176 WHIP, 147 K in 187 IP
2014 stats: 18-9, 3.59 ERA, 1.209 WHIP, 169 K in 213 1/3 IP
Weaver always beats his FIP, but it’s still not a good trend:
2011: 2.41 ERA, 3.20 FIP
2012: 2.81 ERA, 3.75 FIP
2013: 3.27 ERA, 3.82 FIP
2014: 3.59 ERA, 4.19 FIP
On the plus side, he was showing better velocity late in the year. If he can hold steady there, perhaps he’ll arrest his decline next season.
45. John Lackey - Red Sox/Cardinals
Projection: 15-10, 3.86 ERA, 1.259 WHIP, 174 K in 209 2/3 IP
2014 stats: 14-10, 3.82 ERA, 1.278 WHIP, 164 K in 198 IP
50. Hiroki Kuroda - Yankees
Projection: 13-10, 3.70 ERA, 1.192 WHIP, 140 K in 189 2/3 IP
2014 stats: 11-9, 3.71 ERA, 1.136 WHIP, 146 K in 199 IP
51. Shelby Miller - Cardinals
Projection: 12-9, 3.56 ERA, 1.253 WHIP, 171 K in 182 IP
2014 stats: 10-9, 3.74 ERA, 1.273 WHIP, 127 K in 183 IP
Miller really got it together at the end of the year. He had a 26/5 K/BB ratio in 30 1/3 innings in September after coming in at 102/68 in 152 2/3 innings through five months.
52. Hisashi Iwakuma - Mariners
Projection: 12-8, 3.58 ERA, 1.209 WHIP, 141 K in 173 2/3 IP
2014 stats: 15-9, 3.52 ERA, 1.050 WHIP, 154 K in 179 IP
It worked the other way with Iwakuma; he was on pace to destroy my projection with a 2.57 ERA and a 0.946 WHIP through mid-August. He then had a 7.88 ERA and a 1.531 WHIP in his last six starts.
53. Dan Haren - Dodgers
Projection: 12-10, 3.82 ERA, 1.194 WHIP, 160 K in 186 IP
2014 stats: 13-11, 4.02 ERA, 1.177 WHIP, 145 K in 186 IP
56. Justin Masterson - Indians/Cardinals
Projection: 14-11, 3.40 ERA, 1.311 WHIP, 178 K in 206 2/3 IP
2014 stats: 7-9, 5.88 ERA, 1.632 WHIP, 116 K in 128 2/3 IP
The Cardinals thought they could fix Masterson, but he had a 7.04 ERA in six starts and three relief appearances after the trade.
60. Corey Kluber - Indians
Projection: 12-9, 3.72 ERA, 1.263 WHIP, 172 K in 183 2/3 IP
2014 stats: 18-9, 2.44 ERA, 1.095 WHIP, 269 K in 235 2/3 IP
Here’s the other 100-strikeout miss. Well, 97 anyway. That’s a whole lot of innings Kluber ended up throwing. His previous high was 188 1/3 between Triple-A and the majors in 2012. He threw 159 2/3 innings in 2013.
61. Tim Hudson - Giants
Projection: 13-9, 3.49 ERA, 1.238 WHIP, 119 K in 190 2/3 IP
2014 stats: 9-13, 3.57 ERA, 1.231 WHIP, 120 K in 189 1/3 IP
Why do you have to be so cruel, wins and losses?
70. Tim Lincecum - Giants
Projection: 12-11, 3.84 ERA, 1.310 WHIP, 182 K in 192 1/3 IP
2014 stats: 12-9, 4.74 ERA, 1.394 WHIP, 134 K in 155 2/3 IP
Hudson could have used his luck. It’s going to be interesting to see what the Giants do with Lincecum next year. He hasn’t shown enough out of the pen to suggest he could become a late-game option, but then, he hasn’t really gotten the chance. I wouldn’t expect a rebound campaign if he’s returned to the rotation.
71. Yordano Ventura - Royals
Projection: 12-9, 3.72 ERA, 1.319 WHIP, 159 K in 176 2/3 IP
2014 stats: 14-10, 3.20 ERA, 1.295 WHIP, 159 K in 183 IP
88. Henderson Alvarez - Marlins
Projection: 11-12, 3.80 ERA, 1.245 WHIP, 117 K in 194 1/3 IP
2014 stats: 12-7, 2.65 ERA, 1.235 WHIP, 111 K in 187 IP
Looking back, I probably should have given Alvarez a better ERA to go along with the WHIP projection. But my projection did come to a 3.75 FIP (117 K, 47 BB, 16 HR). He ended up with a 3.58 FIP (111 K, 33 BB, 14 HR).
91. Edwin Jackson - Cubs
Projection: 11-11, 3.88 ERA, 1.308 WHIP, 152 K in 192 2/3 IP
2014 stats: 6-15, 6.33 ERA, 1.642 WHIP, 123 K in 140 2/3 IP
94. Phil Hughes - Twins
Projection: 10-11, 3.98 ERA, 1.254 WHIP, 144 K in 178 2/3 IP
2014 stats: 16-10, 3.52 ERA, 1.130 WHIP, 186 K in 209 2/3 IP
I would have been more bullish on Hughes if he had taken a one-year contract in free agency, rather than the modest three-year, $24 million contract he signed with the Twins. My feeling was that if Hughes didn’t believe he’d have a big season, why should I believe it? Perhaps armchair psychology isn’t for me.
102. Carlos Carrasco - Indians
Projection: 10-9, 3.83 ERA, 1.296 WHIP, 138 K in 166 2/3 IP
2014 stats: 8-7, 2.55 ERA, 0.985 WHIP, 140 K in 134 IP
It’s an awfully scary thought, ranking Carrasco as a top-30 starting pitcher next year. But I still think I’m going to have to.
110. Ricky Nolasco - Twins
Projection: 11-12, 4.04 ERA, 1.304 WHIP, 141 K in 194 IP
2014 stats: 6-12, 5.38 ERA, 1.516 WHIP, 115 K in 159 IP
113. Garrett Richards - Angels
Projection: 11-10, 3.91 ERA, 1.332 WHIP, 132 K in 181 2/3 IP
2014 stats: 13-4, 2.61 ERA, 1.038 WHIP, 164 K in 168 2/3 IP
126. Dallas Keuchel - Astros
Projection: 10-13, 4.15 ERA, 1.325 WHIP, 136 K in 191 IP
2014 stats: 12-9, 2.92 ERA, 1.175 WHIP, 146 K in 200 IP
Keuchel was someone I liked, but obviously not enough. I wish I had been gutsier with his projection, but the lefty did enter the season with a career record of 9-18 and a 5.20 ERA.
127. Danny Duffy - Royals
Projection: 9-7, 3.84 ERA, 1.349 WHIP, 119 K in 129 IP
2014 stats: 9-12, 2.53 ERA, 1.112 WHIP, 113 K in 149 1/3 IP
135. Tanner Roark - Nationals
Projection: 8-6, 3.86 ERA, 1.252 WHIP, 84 K in 119 IP
2014 stats: 15-10, 2.85 ERA, 1.092 WHIP, 138 K in 198 2/3 IP
141. Jake Odorizzi - Rays
Projection: 8-8, 4.07 ERA, 1.292 WHIP, 103 K in 137 IP
2014 stats: 11-13, 4.12 ERA, 1.280 WHIP, 174 K in 168 IP
Gotta love the strikeout rate. Odorizzi will be a popular late-round pick in mixed leagues next year.
146. Roberto Hernandez - Phillies/Dodgers
Projection: 9-10, 4.12 ERA, 1.324 WHIP, 116 K in 161 2/3 IP
2014 stats: 8-11, 4.10 ERA, 1.391 WHIP, 105 K in 164 2/3 IP
147. Jeremy Guthrie - Royals
Projection: 11-13, 4.17 ERA, 1.342 WHIP, 114 K in 202 2/3 IP
2014 stats: 13-11, 4.13 ERA, 1.303 WHIP, 124 K in 202 2/3 IP
151. Jake Arrieta - Cubs
Projection: 8-9, 4.06 ERA, 1.352 WHIP, 120 K in 142 IP
2014 stats: 10-5, 2.53 ERA, 0.989 WHIP, 167 K in 156 2/3 IP
158. Marcus Stroman - Blue Jays
Projection: 6-5, 4.03 ERA, 1.299 WHIP, 97 K in 109 1/3 IP
2014 stats: 11-6, 3.65 ERA, 1.171 WHIP, 111 K in 130 2/3 IP
193. Edinson Volquez - Pirates
Projection: 6-8, 4.26 ERA, 1.437 WHIP, 101 K in 118 1/3 IP
2014 stats: 13-7, 3.04 ERA, 1.230 WHIP, 140 K in 192 2/3 IP
Never doubt a Pirates starter, apparently. They’ll have to target more bargains this winter with Liriano likely to go in free agency and Volquez perhaps following him. I wonder if Masterson will end up being cheap enough for them.
225. Chris Young - Mariners
Projection: 4-6, 4.53 ERA, 1.358 WHIP, 64 K in 91 1/3 IP
2014 stats: 12-9, 3.65 ERA, 1.230 WHIP, 108 K in 165 IP
248. Matt Shoemaker - Angels
Projection: 2-4, 4.41 ERA, 1.275 WHIP, 39 K in 51 IP
2014 stats: 16-4, 3.04 ERA, 1.074 WHIP, 124 K in 136 IP
298. Collin McHugh - Astros
Projection: 1-3, 4.60 ERA, 1.395 WHIP, 31 K in 43 IP
2014 stats: 11-9, 2.73 ERA, 1.022 WHIP, 157 K in 154 2/3 IP
341. Jacob deGrom - Mets
Projection: 1-3, 4.89 ERA, 1.500 WHIP, 26 K in 38 2/3 IP
2014 stats: 9-6, 2.69 ERA, 1.140 WHIP, 144 K in 140 1/3 IP
381. Tyler Matzek - Rockies
Projection: 0-3, 7.27 ERA, 1.846 WHIP, 18 K in 26 IP
2014 stats: 6-11, 4.05 ERA, 1.394 WHIP, 91 K in 117 2/3 IP
Matzek was dead last in my starting projections, but turned in a perfectly respectable campaign for the Rockies. I think that’s the first time that’s happened with my Mr. Irrelevant.