Pitching Projections Review
The last Strike Zone of 2015 is a review of this year’s preseason starting pitching projections. I’ll be diving into Draft Guide work from here, so there probably won’t be any additional columns until February.
Starting pitching projections review
Top 25
1. Clayton Kershaw - Dodgers
Projection: 20-6, 2.16 ERA, 0.959 WHIP, 13 HR, 240 K in 221 IP
2015 stats: 16-7, 2.13 ERA, 0.881 WHIP, 15 HR, 301 K in 232 2/3 IP
Barring an injury, Kershaw will open up in the top spot for the fourth straight year next season, matching Johan Santana’s run from 2006-09.
2. Felix Hernandez - Mariners
Projection: 17-8, 2.69 ERA, 1.077 WHIP, 14 HR, 219 K in 221 IP
2015 stats: 18-9, 3.53 ERA, 1.180 WHIP, 23 HR, 191 K in 201 2/3 IP
Worst home run rate since 2006, worst ERA since 2007, worst FIP since 2008, worst walk rate since 2009, worst strikeout rate since 2010. Most likely, Felix’s physical problems were a bigger issue than he ever let on.
3. Max Scherzer - Nationals
Projection: 17-9, 2.80 ERA, 1.096 WHIP, 17 HR, 245 K in 215 1/3 IP
2015 stats: 14-12, 2.79 ERA, 0.918 WHIP, 27 HR, 276 K in 228 2/3 IP
4. Stephen Strasburg - Nationals
Projection: 17-8, 2.69 ERA, 1.072 WHIP, 16 HR, 216 K in 204 1/3 IP
2015 stats: 11-7, 3.46 ERA, 1.107 WHIP, 14 HR, 155 K in 127 1/3 IP
5. Madison Bumgarner - Giants
Projection: 17-9, 2.73 ERA, 1.071 WHIP, 16 HR, 207 K in 214 2/3 IP
2015 stats: 18-9, 2.93 ERA, 1.008 WHIP, 21 HR, 234 K in 218 1/3 IP
6. David Price - Tigers/Blue Jays
Projection: 17-10, 3.07 ERA, 1.062 WHIP, 22 HR, 222 K in 226 IP
2015 stats: 18-5, 2.45 ERA, 1.076 WHIP, 17 HR, 225 K in 220 1/3 IP
7. Corey Kluber - Indians
Projection: 16-9, 2.94 ERA, 1.098 WHIP, 16 HR, 218 K in 211 1/3 IP
2015 stats: 9-16, 3.49 ERA, 1.054 WHIP, 22 HR, 245 K in 222 IP
Kluber had a 2.97 FIP. He still looks like a borderline top-10 guy for next year, especially with Cleveland’s defense shaping up to be much better than it was at the start of 2015.
8. Chris Sale - White Sox
Projection: 14-7, 2.63 ERA, 1.044 WHIP, 15 HR, 198 K in 174 1/3 IP
2015 stats: 13-11, 3.41 ERA, 1.088 WHIP, 23 HR, 274 K in 208 2/3 IP
Sale edged out Price for the AL’s best FIP at 2.73.
9. Johnny Cueto - Reds/Royals
Projection: 17-10, 2.95 ERA, 1.102 WHIP, 20 HR, 198 K in 213 1/3 IP
2015 stats: 11-13, 3.44 ERA, 1.132 WHIP, 21 HR, 176 K in 212 IP
I’d still bet pretty big on Cueto this winter, but how much help he’s gotten from some pretty strong defenses in Cincinnati through the years needs to be taken into account.
10. Cole Hamels - Phillies/Rangers
Projection: 15-10, 2.88 ERA, 1.099 WHIP, 18 HR, 207 K in 209 1/3 IP
2015 stats: 13-8, 3.65 ERA, 1.187 WHIP, 22 HR, 215 K in 212 1/3 IP
11. Adam Wainwright - Cardinals
Projection: 17-9, 2.92 ERA, 1.125 WHIP, 15 HR, 179 K in 216 IP
2015 stats: 2-1, 1.61 ERA, 1.036 WHIP, 0 HR, 20 K in 28 IP
12. Zack Greinke - Dodgers
Projection: 16-8, 2.92 ERA, 1.128 WHIP, 17 HR, 192 K in 200 1/3 IP
2015 stats: 19-3, 1.66 ERA, 0.844 WHIP, 14 HR, 200 K in 222 2/3 IP
Greinke will pull down the highest annual salary of the free agent starters after his miracle season. And miracle really is the best way to describe it. Since Greinke rejoined the rotation on a full-time basis in 2008, he had a BABIP over .300 six times in seven years. This year, he came in at .229.
13. Jordan Zimmermann - Nationals
Projection: 16-9, 3.05 ERA, 1.108 WHIP, 18 HR, 182 K in 206 2/3 IP
2015 stats: 13-10, 3.66 ERA, 1.205 WHIP, 24 HR, 164 K in 201 2/3 IP
Zimmermann scares me more as a free agent target than Cueto. His velocity dropped a bit this year, and he has just league-average strikeout and groundball rates in his career. He’s going to make a ton of money for a guy who might be a No. 3 starter going forward.
14. Sonny Gray - Athletics
Projection: 15-10, 3.01 ERA, 1.163 WHIP, 16 HR, 187 K in 212 1/3 IP
2015 stats: 14-7, 2.73 ERA, 1.082 WHIP, 17 HR, 169 K in 208 IP
15. Gerrit Cole - Pirates
Projection: 15-7, 2.91 ERA, 1.163 WHIP, 12 HR, 171 K in 182 1/3 IP
2015 stats: 19-8, 2.60 ERA, 1.091 WHIP, 11 HR, 202 K in 208 IP
16. Matt Harvey - Mets
Projection: 12-7, 2.95 ERA, 1.146 WHIP, 13 HR, 179 K in 171 IP
2015 stats: 13-8, 2.71 ERA, 1.019 WHIP, 18 HR, 188 K in 189 1/3 IP
17. Alex Cobb - Rays
Projection: 14-8, 3.00 ERA, 1.126 WHIP, 13 HR, 167 K in 183 IP
2015 stats: n/a
18. Julio Teheran - Braves
Projection: 13-12, 3.16 ERA, 1.142 WHIP, 21 HR, 184 K in 213 2/3 IP
2015 stats: 11-8, 4.04 ERA, 1.306 WHIP, 27 HR, 171 K in 200 2/3 IP
19. Michael Pineda - Yankees
Projection: 14-8, 3.23 ERA, 1.099 WHIP, 19 HR, 164 K in 178 1/3 IP
2015 stats: 12-10, 4.37 ERA, 1.226 WHIP, 21 HR, 156 K in 160 2/3 IP
Pineda had a 3.34 FIP and a 2.95 xFIP, suggesting that better things are in store if he can stay healthy.
20. Doug Fister - Nationals
Projection: 15-9, 3.15 ERA, 1.130 WHIP, 16 HR, 148 K in 200 IP
2015 stats: 5-7, 4.19 ERA, 1.398 WHIP, 14 HR, 63 K in 103 IP
Fister was a darn good pitcher throwing 89 mph, but not so much throwing 86 mph. Unless the velocity comes back, he’s a fringe fifth starter.
21. James Shields - Padres
Projection: 15-11, 3.41 ERA, 1.164 WHIP, 21 HR, 193 K in 219 IP
2015 stats: 13-7, 3.91 ERA, 1.334 WHIP, 33 HR, 216 K in 202 2/3 IP
22. Carlos Carrasco - Indians
Projection: 14-7, 3.21 ERA, 1.170 WHIP, 14 HR, 189 K in 190 2/3 IP
2015 stats: 14-12, 3.63 ERA, 1.073 WHIP, 18 HR, 216 K in 183 2/3 IP
Love the improved strikeout rate, love the improved defense. Carrasco will crack the top 15 next year.
23. Alex Wood - Braves/Dodgers
Projection: 12-10, 2.98 ERA, 1.156 WHIP, 14 HR, 172 K in 184 1/3 IP
2015 stats: 12-12, 3.84 ERA, 1.355 WHIP, 15 HR, 139 K in 189 2/3 IP
24. Jacob deGrom - Mets
Projection: 14-9, 3.31 ERA, 1.183 WHIP, 18 HR, 196 K in 198 2/3 IP
2015 stats: 14-8, 2.54 ERA, 0.979 WHIP, 16 HR, 205 K in 191 IP
I was pretty worried about the Mets defense going in and dinged their pitchers a bit as a result. As it turned out, though, it wasn’t really a factor. In fact, four of the five starters (Bartolo Colon excepted) had better ERAs than FIPs,
25. Garrett Richards - Angels
Projection: 14-7, 3.02 ERA, 1.189 WHIP, 11 HR, 170 K in 181 2/3 IP
2015 stats: 15-12, 3.65 ERA, 1.240 WHIP, 20 HR, 176 K in 207 1/3 IP
Other notables
27. Tyson Ross - Padres
Projection: 15-8, 3.06 ERA, 1.228 WHIP, 11 HR, 176 K in 191 1/3 IP
2015 stats: 10-12, 3.26 ERA, 1.306 WHIP, 9 HR, 212 K in 196 IP
Ross was the first pitcher in four years to finish with at least nine times as many walks (84) as homers allowed. If he can cut back on the BBs next year and the Padres take some steps to put a better defense on the field, he’d seem to have top-15 potential.
28. Michael Wacha - Cardinals
Projection: 13-8, 3.18 ERA, 1.144 WHIP, 15 HR, 171 K in 178 1/3 IP
2015 stats: 17-7, 3.38 ERA, 1.213 WHIP, 19 HR, 153 K in 181 1/3 IP
30. Gio Gonzalez - Nationals
Projection: 14-9, 3.21 ERA, 1.212 WHIP, 15 HR, 192 K in 196 1/3 IP
2015 stats: 11-8, 3.79 ERA, 1.423 WHIP, 8 HR, 169 K in 175 2/3 IP
Gonzalez could be a modest bargain on draft day next year; his strikeout rate remains plenty strong and he’s getting more grounders than ever. The ugly 1.42 WHIP was the product of a .341 BABIP.
31. Jon Lester - Cubs
Projection: 15-11, 3.48 ERA, 1.202 WHIP, 20 HR, 198 K in 214 2/3 IP
2015 stats: 11-12, 3.34 ERA, 1.122 WHIP, 16 HR, 207 K in 205 IP
33. Dallas Keuchel - Astros
Projection: 15-10, 3.38 ERA, 1.187 WHIP, 15 HR, 149 K in 210 2/3 IP
2015 stats: 20-8, 2.48 ERA, 1.017 WHIP, 17 HR, 216 K in 232 IP
34. Jake Arrieta - Cubs
Projection: 13-9, 3.36 ERA, 1.211 WHIP, 15 HR, 179 K in 190 IP
2015 stats: 22-6, 1.77 ERA, 0.865 WHIP, 10 HR, 236 K in 229 IP
I was quite a bit higher on Keuchel than most, but not so Arrieta, as I worried about the injury risk. I still do, though a little less now than I would have had he made three more starts in the NLCS and World Series.
35. Masahiro Tanaka - Yankees
Projection: 11-7, 3.33 ERA, 1.136 WHIP, 17 HR, 146 K in 159 1/3 IP
2015 stats: 12-7, 3.51 ERA, 0.994 WHIP, 25 HR, 139 K in 154 IP
Bet you didn’t know Tanaka was the only AL starter to post a sub-1.000 WHIP this year. He was also the youngest of the six MLB starters to do so (Greinke, Arrieta, Kershaw, Scherzer and deGrom being the others).
36. Justin Verlander - Tigers
Projection: 15-9, 3.53 ERA, 1.218 WHIP, 19 HR, 180 K in 198 2/3 IP
2015 stats: 5-8, 3.38 ERA, 1.088 WHIP, 13 HR, 113 K in 133 1/3 IP
Verlander ended up with a better WHIP than Sale, Cole or Chris Archer.
43. Jeff Samardzija - White Sox
Projection: 13-11, 3.59 ERA, 1.197 WHIP, 23 HR, 187 K in 208 IP
2015 stats: 11-13, 4.96 ERA, 1.294 WHIP, 29 HR, 163 K in 214 IP
Samardzija was on my preseason avoid list, as I just didn’t like the fit with the White Sox in U.S. Cellular. If he finds himself in a better situation, he can still be a worthy third or fourth starter in mixed leagues next year.
44. Chris Archer - Rays
Projection: 13-10, 3.45 ERA, 1.215 WHIP, 17 HR, 181 K in 198 1/3 IP
2015 stats: 12-13, 3.23 ERA, 1.137 WHIP, 19 HR, 252 K in 212 IP
Archer spent the first half of the season looking like a top-10 SP, but an inconsistent second half followed, perhaps because of the heavy workload. It’ll be tough to leave him out of the top 20 next year, but I’m rather wary. I think he’ll become more of a breakdown candidate if manager Kevin Cash continues to employ such a slow hook with him.
45. Yordano Ventura - Royals
Projection: 13-8, 3.12 ERA, 1.235 WHIP, 12 HR, 159 K in 170 IP
2015 stats: 13-8, 4.08 ERA, 1.298 WHIP, 14 HR, 156 K in 163 1/3 IP
47. Andrew Cashner - Padres
Projection: 12-6, 2.93 ERA, 1.158 WHIP, 9 HR, 116 K in 147 2/3 IP
2015 stats: 6-16, 4.34 ERA, 1.440 WHIP, 19 HR, 165 K in 184 2/3 IP
Healthy and bad is not the combination I was expecting here. Maybe he’ll bounce back if supplied with a major league defense next year.
48. John Lackey - Cardinals
Projection: 14-10, 3.60 ERA, 1.209 WHIP, 22 HR, 173 K in 202 2/3 IP
2015 stats: 13-10, 2.77 ERA, 1.211 WHIP, 21 HR, 175 K in 218 IP
50. Jose Quintana - White Sox
Projection: 13-10, 3.49 ERA, 1.213 WHIP, 20 HR, 170 K in 203 2/3 IP
2015 stats: 9-10, 3.36 ERA, 1.270 WHIP, 16 HR, 177 K in 206 1/3 IP
I should probably just stop projecting winning records for Quintana as long as he pitches for the White Sox.
54. Taijuan Walker - Mariners
Projection: 13-8, 3.50 ERA, 1.243 WHIP, 16 HR, 175 K in 182 2/3 IP
2015 stats: 11-8, 4.56 ERA, 1.196 WHIP, 25 HR, 157 K in 169 2/3 IP
Look at that nifty 1.196 WHIP. Walker’s walk rate (2.1 BB/9 IP) was a great surprise, even if the overall numbers weren’t. He’ll move up on next year’s list.
55. Scott Kazmir - Athletics/Astros
Projection: 12-8, 3.45 ERA, 1.202 WHIP, 16 HR, 152 K in 174 2/3 IP
2015 stats: 7-11, 3.10 ERA, 1.208 WHIP, 20 HR, 155 K in 183 IP
57. Francisco Liriano - Pirates
Projection: 12-7, 3.44 ERA, 1.295 WHIP, 13 HR, 184 K in 177 2/3 IP
2015 stats: 12-7, 3.38 ERA, 1.205 WHIP, 15 HR, 205 K in 186 2/3 IP
59. Mike Fiers - Brewers/Astros
Projection: 11-9, 3.75 ERA, 1.269 WHIP, 23 HR, 159 K in 175 1/3 IP
2015 stats: 7-10, 3.69 ERA, 1.253 WHIP, 24 HR, 180 K in 180 1/3 IP
67. Danny Salazar - Indians
Projection: 10-7, 3.61 ERA, 1.197 WHIP, 16 HR, 146 K in 142 IP
2015 stats: 14-10, 3.45 ERA, 1.130 WHIP, 23 HR, 195 K in 185 IP
My original projection had Salazar at 12-10 with 189 strikeouts in 184 innings, making him my No. 48 SP before the Indians’ misguided decision to send him down prior to Opening Day.
77. Carlos Martinez - Cardinals
Projection: 10-7, 3.38 ERA, 1.253 WHIP, 10 HR, 130 K in 143 2/3 IP
2015 stats: 14-7, 3.01 ERA, 1.286 WHIP, 13 HR, 184 K in 179 2/3 IP
78. Mike Leake - Reds/Giants
Projection: 12-11, 3.69 ERA, 1.224 WHIP, 21 HR, 139 K in 202 2/3 IP
2015 stats: 11-10, 3.70 ERA, 1.161 WHIP, 22 HR, 119 K in 192 IP
82. Wei-Yin Chen - Orioles
Projection: 12-9, 3.83 ERA, 1.224 WHIP, 24 HR, 142 K in 190 1/3 IP
2015 stats: 11-8, 3.34 ERA, 1.218 WHIP, 28 HR, 153 K in 191 1/3 IP
84. Trevor Bauer - Indians
Projection: 12-11, 3.85 ERA, 1.299 WHIP, 19 HR, 173 K in 187 IP
2015 stats: 11-12, 4.55 ERA, 1.313 WHIP, 23 HR, 170 K in 176 IP
89. Brett Anderson - Dodgers
Projection: 10-8, 3.64 ERA, 1.266 WHIP, 12 HR, 115 K in 155 2/3 IP
2015 stats: 10-9, 3.69 ERA, 1.331 WHIP, 18 HR, 116 K in 180 1/3 IP
91. Shelby Miller - Braves
Projection: 10-12, 3.79 ERA, 1.290 WHIP, 21 HR, 163 K in 187 2/3 IP
2015 stats: 6-17, 3.02 ERA, 1.247 WHIP, 13 HR, 171 K in 205 1/3 IP
96. Jimmy Nelson - Brewers
Projection: 10-9, 3.89 ERA, 1.284 WHIP, 18 HR, 151 K in 173 2/3 IP
2015 stats: 11-13, 4.11 ERA, 1.286 WHIP, 18 HR, 148 K in 177 1/3 IP
98. Carlos Rodon - White Sox
Projection: 8-6, 3.73 ERA, 1.297 WHIP, 13 HR, 134 K in 128 IP
2015 stats: 9-6, 3.75 ERA, 1.443 WHIP, 11 HR, 139 K in 139 1/3 IP
I had Rodon walking 3.8 batters per nine, and he came in at 4.6, which largely explains the poor WHIP. He’ll get better next year and so might the White Sox defense.
101. Bartolo Colon - Mets
Projection: 11-13, 4.15 ERA, 1.204 WHIP, 23 HR, 117 K in 184 1/3 IP
2015 stats: 14-13, 4.16 ERA, 1.238 WHIP, 25 HR, 136 K in 194 2/3 IP
107. Jaime Garcia - Cardinals
Projection: 7-5, 3.29 ERA, 1.200 WHIP, 8 HR, 83 K in 98 1/3 IP
2015 stats: 10-6, 2.43 ERA, 1.049 WHIP, 6 HR, 97 K in 129 2/3 IP
110. Anthony DeSclafini - Reds
Projection: 9-9, 3.94 ERA, 1.275 WHIP, 19 HR, 137 K in 157 2/3 IP
2015 stats: 9-13, 4.05 ERA, 1348 WHIP, 17 HR, 151 K in 184 2/3 IP
113. Yovani Gallardo - Rangers
Projection: 12-10, 3.97 ERA, 1.322 WHIP, 19 HR, 138 K in 188 1/3 IP
2015 stats: 13-11, 3.42 ERA, 1.416 WHIP, 15 HR, 121 K in 184 1/3 IP
116. Kyle Gibson - Twins
Projection: 11-11, 3.94 ERA, 1.318 WHIP, 17 HR, 134 K in 192 IP
2015 stats: 11-11, 3.84 ERA, 1.289 WHIP, 18 HR, 145 K in 194 2/3 IP
126. Patrick Corbin - Diamondbacks
Projection: 6-5, 3.68 ERA, 1.258 WHIP, 9 HR, 81 K in 93 IP
2015 stats: 6-5, 3.60 ERA, 1.271 WHIP, 9 HR, 78 K in 85 IP
Never again will I come so close on a Tommy John returnee, so let me just bask in this glow for a moment.
128. Jon Niese - Mets
Projection: 9-10, 4.02 ERA, 1.310 WHIP, 17 HR, 118 K in 165 2/3 IP
2015 stats: 9-10, 4.13 ERA, 1.398 WHIP, 20 HR, 113 K in 176 2/3 IP
130. Erasmo Ramirez - Rays
Projection: 8-10, 4.04 ERA, 1.295 WHIP, 18 HR, 126 K in 158 1/3 IP
2015 stats: 11-6, 3.75 ERA, 1.133 WHIP, 16 HR, 126 K in 163 1/3 IP
I projected Ramirez to go 11-8 with a 3.60 ERA in 167 2/3 innings in 2014 (and 9-6 with a 3.68 ERA the year before that). I’m still glad he fulfilled some of that promise, but with his fastball down a couple of ticks, I’m not quite sure about an encore.
137. Noah Syndergaard - Mets
Projection: 6-5, 3.78 ERA, 1.290 WHIP, 10 HR, 90 K in 95 1/3 IP
2015 stats: 9-7, 3.24 ERA, 1.047 WHIP, 19 HR, 166 K in 150 IP
I regret not going bolder on Syndergaard, but with Dillon Gee (remember him?) making $5.3 million, I didn’t think the Mets would be willing to move on quickly. As it turned out, Gee’s groin injury made things easy on them.
141. Jorge De La Rosa - Rockies
Projection: 11-9, 4.17 ERA, 1.348 WHIP, 18 HR, 134 K in 170 2/3 IP
2015 stats: 9-7, 4.17 ERA, 1.356 WHIP, 17 HR, 134 K in 149 IP
144. Tim Lincecum - Giants
Projection: 7-8, 4.03 ERA, 1.329 WHIP, 15 HR, 118 K in 131 2/3 IP
2015 stats: 7-4, 4.13 ERA, 1.480 WHIP, 7 HR, 69 K in 76 1/3 IP
151. Marco Estrada - Blue Jays
Projection: 7-9, 4.40 ERA, 1.214 WHIP, 22 HR, 111 K in 131 IP
2015 stats: 13-8, 3.13 ERA, 1.044 WHIP, 24 HR, 131 K in 181 IP
One of the many amazing things about Estrada’s fantastic season was the continued collapse of his strikeout rate. Some of that was due to the league switch, but he’s gone from 9.3 K/9 IP in 2012 to 8.3 in 2013 to 7.6 in 2014 (all with the Brewers) to 6.5 this year. His BABIPs have also plummeted during the span, dipping all of the way to .217 this year. That’s the lowest mark for an ERA title qualifier since 1988. The last pitcher to better Estrada’s BABIP and top his 181 innings was Catfish Hunter in 1972.
333. Edinson Volquez - Royals
Projection: 8-11, 4.55 ERA, 1.460 WHIP, 17 HR, 115 K in 164 1/3 IP
2015 stats: 13-9, 3.55 ERA, 1.308 WHIP, 16 HR, 155 K in 200 1/3 IP
I was way off here. It wasn’t all about the Kansas City defense, either. With his velocity up a tad, Volquez improved his strikeout rate despite the league switch, and he gave up two or three fewer homers than one would expect given his flyball rate.