Pitching by the Numbers: Walk the line
We continue setting the table for our 2015 pitching analysis by putting today’s individual numbers into the modern context. Last week, we adjusted strikeout percentage for the league average, where 100 was average. This week, we do the same with BB%.
Next up, we put our K and BB analysis together in one formula and tier pitchers based on their 2014 numbers. You will see that many experts and fellow owners are largely ignoring 2014 performance in their 2015 projections/ADP. I believe that is foolish and it’s the basis of my recommendation to wait for pitching. Merely draft last year’s elite key stat without much pushback at all, even deep into drafts.
Early March should be plenty of time for you to prepare for your drafts. But if you have a pressing matter in the meantime and want my opinion, just ask me on Twitter (@michaelsalfino).
Last year, the average pitcher walked 7.6 percent of batters, which is historically low and exactly where we were in 1968, the fabled “Year of the Pitcher.” So the walk rate you think is good is probably not nearly as good as you assume. Conversely, the one you think is livable is probably not in today’s context. As recently as 2009, the BB rate was 8.9%.
But of course, some are still outstanding at limiting walks, even adjusting for 2014. Here are the pitchers who beat the league average rate by at least 50% (most games starter, minimum 50 IP, here’s the full list):
[Baseball 2015 from Yahoo! Fantasy Sports: Join a league today!]
Hughes’s rate is four times better than the 2014 average, so his BB%+ is therefore 400. While Hernandez’s is 152 because he’s 52% better.
I also refer you to an article by my friend and fantasy baseball legend, Rotoman (Peter Kreutzer), who thinks that BB% is where the value is on draft day. Peter says:
“I do think it’s safe to say that BB/9 and BB% are the place to look for potential profits, at least in part because those are the results fantasy owners are paying least for.”
Ideally some of these low walk pitchers also strike out a fair number of hitters. But more on that next week, when we put these metrics together. In the meantime, you can see for yourself that many of the above pitchers can be had for prices that are essentially free: Eovaldi, Roark, Porcello, Petit, Shoemaker (my favorite; please roster him), McCarthy….
Tomlin was victimized terribly by homers, which of course renders strikeouts and walks far less meaningful. The question is the degree to which luck is a factor in homers. We know that hitters control about 60% of the outcome, generally, so it’s pretty safe to say homer rates are half luck, half skill. Maybe the way to deal with homers is to just add half of the pitcher’s actual rate above the league average to the league average (subtract half of however far it is below league average from league average). But the stat we’d have to use would be HR/FB rate (not HR/9), since we must take fly ball and ground ball rates into account. But that’s for another day. For now, unless you are in AL Only, forget about Tomlin.
Also avoid the following pitchers who walk 20% ore more above the league average.
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Some of these pitchers were really good in 2013, but I strongly believe that pitching is, “What have you done for me lately.” I don’t care very much about historic stats. In fact, I think looking at them will get you in trouble. Though I stipulate that looking at historical numbers would have gotten you off of Masterson and Burnett last year (but caused you to miss their 2013 seasons).
Wheeler and Liriano are the names above who I would avoid due to control woes. Sure we can rationalize that Wheeler can get better at age 25. But he has a lot of innings and shows no real signs of getting his BB rate in line with the modern averages.
