Pitching by the Numbers: Closers in waiting

This is the year of the failed fantasy closer. Injuries and poor performance have jettisoned preseason guys from saves duty, or threaten to. So let’s try to chart up the relievers in the best position to be promoted.

The data suggests Aroldis Chapman could thrive as a closer. (Gett …But what are the key metrics? Fortunately, there’s no need to get fancy with relievers presently not getting saves. With starters, we must look deeper because everyone sees the stats that directly relate to fantasy categories. But most of these guys aren’t even rostered in standard Yahoo! mixed leagues and many escape notice altogether.

To make this chart, relievers must have less than three saves and also (1) have thrown 15 innings through Wednesday, (2) have a K/9 of at least 9.00 and (3) walked 4.00/9 or less. (Since 1980, only 10 closers have at least 69 saves with a rate higher than that.) But we also note other key factors – ERA (because no manager is going to go all in on a guy that has an ugly number on the scoreboard for all to see every time he’s summoned), strength of the current team closer (opinions may vary) and average fastball velocity. “Who cares about the radar gun?” you may ask considering that we have K/9. But closers generally light it up and managers are creatures of habit, which is why they want designated closers to begin with. We start with 20 guys:

Player	Team	IP	K	K/9	BB/9	HR	ERA	Team Closer	AVG FBV
Aroldis Chapman	CIN	19.1	34	15.83	2.33	0	0.00	Medium	96.7
Ernesto Frieri	SD/LAA	16.1	28	15.43	3.86	2	1.65	Weak	92.5
Boone Logan	NYY	15.2	24	13.79	3.45	1	2.30	Weak	93.7
Tim Collins	KCR	20	30	13.50	2.25	3	3.15	Medium	93.3
David Hernandez	ARI	17.1	24	12.46	2.08	2	2.08	Weak	94.4
Steve Delabar	SEA	17.2	23	11.72	2.04	5	4.08	Medium	94.8
Joel Peralta	TBR	16.2	20	10.80	3.24	4	5.40	Medium	90.3
Cory Wade	NYY	17	20	10.59	1.06	0	1.59	Weak	88.2
Tom Wilhelmsen	SEA	20	23	10.35	3.60	2	4.05	Medium	95.4
Glen Perkins	MIN	15	17	10.20	3.00	2	4.80	Medium	94.6
Mitchell Boggs	STL	16	18	10.13	3.38	0	2.81	Strong	94.4
Craig Stammen	WSN	21	23	9.86	1.71	1	1.29	Weak	90.9
Darren O'Day	BAL	18.1	20	9.82	1.96	2	1.47	Strong	84.2
Luis Perez	TOR	19.1	21	9.78	3.72	1	2.33	Weak	93.4
Alfredo Simon	CIN	15.2	17	9.77	2.30	1	2.30	Medium	93.8
Manny Parra	MIL	17.2	19	9.68	3.57	0	3.06	Medium	92.4
Alexi Ogando	TEX	20	21	9.45	0.90	0	0.45	Strong	96.6
Aaron Crow	KCR	18	18	9.00	4.00	1	2.50	Medium	94.9
Bobby Parnell	NYM	17	17	9.00	1.59	1	2.12	Weak	94.9
Vicente Padilla	BOS	15	15	9.00	2.40	2	5.40	Weak	92.6

First thing we need to do is eliminate from speculative closer consideration the guys who are on teams with strong closers. So out go Boggs, O’Day and Ogando. Next, the guys with an ugly ERA despite solid peripherals. So out go Peralta, Perkins and Padilla. I sort of like Perkins still, but rules are rules. Now we have to consider the bias against lefties, who have the platoon disadvantage most times and also are needed for situations earlier in games. Again, I personally have nothing against lefty closers and am well aware of many good ones. But they are the exception to the rule and if managers didn’t like rules, we wouldn’t have designated closers. But let’s not be crazy and just carve out a Chapman exception, okay? So now we lose Logan, Collins, Perez and Parra. Finally, the below average velocity guys get scrubbed: goodbye Stammen and Wade.

Sorting by weakest closers, the guys to get are Frieri, Hernandez and Parnell. The next tier is Delabar, Wilhelmsen and Crow (who all have medium strong current closers, both of whom will likely be traded soon if they continue to pitch well and if they don’t….). Chapman forces us to ignore Simon. Plus if Marshall does get hurt or implodes and the Reds still want to use Chapman earlier in games, Jose Arredondo is clearly next in line and pretty darn good even though his walks are high.

Delabar similarly seems to be behind Wilhelmsen in the pecking order. But he has much better control and seems to be at least as difficult to hit. Plus managers hit the reset button when they need to replace a closer, I think. So I would not count Delabar out and I do think he’s worth rostering now at least in AL-only leagues.

I note a couple of other guys who this chart didn’t capture: the White Sox reliever Nate Jones and Arizona’s Bryan Shaw. Jones just missed the K/9 but throws over 96 mph on average plus Robin Ventura is all over the place with who closes. Shaw has one of the best cutters in baseball and is just very tough to hit. Also, given the problems the Cubs have closing games, keep an eye on Double-A closer Kevin Rhoderick, who has a Wiffle Ball slider. The Cubs current closer, Rafeal Dolis, has one pitch (a straight hard fastball) and no business being anywhere near the ninth inning – as hitters will soon make clear.