Panthers Fantasy Preview

Panthers Year in Review

2014 Pass Attempts Rank: 19th (545)
2014 Rush Attempts Rank: 8th (473)
2014 Total Offensive Plays Rank: 9th (1,060)
2014 Yards Per Play Rank: 20th (5.2)

Check out the team-by-team fantasy preview schedule.

Projected Starting Lineup

QB: Cam Newton
RB: Jonathan Stewart
FB: Mike Tolbert
WR: Kelvin Benjamin
WR: Devin Funchess
TE: Greg Olsen
LT: Michael Oher
LG: Andrew Norwell
C: Ryan Kalil
RG: Trai Turner
RT: Nate Chandler

Passing Game Outlook

While Cam Newton is a special physical talent, erratic ball placement and shoddy mechanics have plagued him his entire career. He is a streaky, hot-and-cold passer. GM Dave Gettleman is aware of Cam's limitations, using back-to-back top-50 picks on catch-radii hulks Kelvin Benjamin (6'5/240) and Devin Funchess (6'4/232), and signing Greg Olsen (6'6/254) to a big extension. In large part because Newton is a deficient thrower, a huge portion of his fantasy upside is tied to rushing stats. Cam's rushing TDs have dropped each year he's been a pro, resulting in an annual dip in fantasy production. The general feeling among NFL coaches is that a quarterback must be a consistent pocket player to have sustainable long-term success. Each of the past two seasons, the Panthers have opened the year calling fewer designed runs for Newton, only to see him struggle and unleash him as a runner as the seasons progressed. After committing a six-year, $118.5 million contract to Cam this spring, my guess is the coaching staff will continue to try to turn Newton into a more pocket-oriented player. I like Cam as a mid- to low-end QB1, but am not betting he'll regain top-five early-career form.

Kelvin Benjamin was a volume beast as a rookie, ranking sixth among wideouts in targets. While Benjamin proved one of the premier values in 2014 fantasy drafts, he may be slightly overvalued for 2015. Benjamin ranked 101st of 110 qualifiers in PFF's catch-rate metric (51.4 percent), and second in the NFL in drops (11). Four of Benjamin's nine TDs came with Carolina trailing by 24-plus points. Benjamin's 2.4 yards-after-catch per reception average ranked 102nd among NFL wideouts. Two of Benjamin's five 80-plus yard games occurred with Derek Anderson at quarterback. Benjamin is an inefficient receiver with an inefficient quarterback, and his production could regress if second-round pick Devin Funchess upgrades on Jerricho Cotchery. With a third-round ADP as the WR14 off the board, Benjamin is being approached as a borderline WR1. He belongs in the late fourth round or early fifth as a mid-to-low WR2.

The Panthers wanted Devin Funchess badly in the draft, surrendering the Nos. 57, 89, and 201 picks in a trade up to 41st overall. Generally disliked by the game-film crowd, Funchess was a frustrating player to watch at Michigan, demonstrating inconsistent effort and questionable football IQ. Although he ran 4.70 at the Combine, Funchess impressed in the vertical (38 1/2") and broad (10'2") jumps and improved his forty time to 4.50 at the Wolverines' Pro Day. He practiced at all three receiver positions during OTAs and projects as a movement "Z" to Benjamin's "X." There are reasons to like Funchess -- he's huge and athletic and a quality GM in Dave Gettleman invested significant draft capital to land him -- but it's also fair to question his immediate impact. Funchess just turned 21 years old and seems to still be learning the game. He will compete with declining veteran Jerricho Cotchery to book end Benjamin.

Coming off a fluke ten-TD campaign in Pittsburgh, Jerricho Cotchery turned in a sluggish first season with the Panthers, managing a 48-580-1 receiving line on 78 targets. Cotchery never became a big part of Carolina's offense. Best suited to be a rotational slot receiver at this stage of his career, 33-year-old Cotchery may open the season as the Panthers' No. 2, but doesn't figure to hold that job for long, assuming he gets it at all. Ultimately, Cotchery is more of a potential obstacle to Funchess than any real threat for standalone 2015 fantasy value.

Greg Olsen failed to clear 850 yards in each of his first seven NFL seasons, so it was a bit of a surprise when he popped off for a career-best 84-1,008-6 receiving line last year. Olsen and Benjamin both benefited from Cotchery's failure to establish a meaningful role in the passing game. While Funchess may eat into Benjamin's stats, the rookie could likewise affect Olsen's usage after Carolina's tight end ranked fourth at his position in targets (123). It's also worth noting that 21.4 percent of Olsen's 2014 receptions and 19.1 percent of his yards came in Derek Anderson's two starts, which encompassed 12.5 percent of the season. While Olsen still belongs in the top-five tight end discussion, equaling last year's stats seems unlikely.

Running Game Outlook

The Panthers won their final four regular season games last year to qualify for the playoffs before toppling Arizona in the Wild Card Round. On top of a drastically improved defense, Carolina's surge was in large part attributable to a healthy Jonathan Stewart. Left for dead by the fantasy community early in another injury-riddled year, Stewart caught fire en route to 679 yards on 128 carries (5.30 YPC) over the final seven games. Durability will always be a concern with J-Stew, but he is virtually unchallenged as Carolina's workhorse at the prime age of 28. A legitimate three-down back, Stewart's upside is capped only by the Panthers' use of Cam Newton and to a lesser extent FB Mike Tolbert in red-zone situations. Stewart's ADP is late in round four. I have to admit, I've been gobbling him up in MFL10 best-ball drafts.

Fifth-round pick Cameron Artis-Payne's college game tape and measurables were decidedly pedestrian, but his production made him a draftable prospect after leading the SEC in 2014 rushing. Coach Ron Rivera has talked up Carolina's 5-foot-10, 212-pound rookie runner as a "complete back" capable of handling a full load in case of a J-Stew injury. And injured Stewart has been, missing 20 games the past three seasons. Artis-Payne is a fairly intriguing third- or fourth-round Dynasty rookie pick and underrated handcuff for an injury-riddled starter.

2015 Vegas Win Total

The Panthers' 2015 Win Total is 8.5, reasonable yet slightly aggressive given Carolina has averaged eight wins per season in Cam Newton's four years as a starter, even with a 12-win 2013 campaign mixed in. Improvement is likely from all three division opponents -- Atlanta, New Orleans, and Tampa Bay. Vegas is particularly bullish on a Saints rebound, projecting them at nine victories, the eighth highest Win Total in the NFL. Carolina has enough concerns on the offensive line and thinness at critical skill positions that I think their offensive outlook is fragile. They have an excellent back seven on defense, but lack threatening outside pass rushers. Ultimately, I think this is roughly an 8-8 team and roster. I wouldn't place a significant wager on the Panthers' Win Total either way, but if forced to pick I'd lean toward the under.