One-Third Down, Two to Go

As we all shift toward Christmas and the holiday season the NBA followed suit by making Wednesday a day off before the Christmas Day games. That meant we got 11 games last night and a slight schedule change here with me combining today’s Dose with tomorrow’s Bruski Breakdown format.

So we’ll go a bit deeper here today and there is plenty to talk about, including the Lakers staging a coup of Kobe Bryant in their win over the Warriors. There were big lines everywhere and plenty of fantasy value changes for owners to pore over during the break, as owners take a deep breath and get ready for the remaining two-thirds of the season.

As an aside, I wish you all the best during the holidays and thank you for reading. It’s a pleasure to talk hoops in an environment where people can rattle off rosters in their sleep. And as I’ve always said I’d take you guys to war with me over most of the folks we all follow on the net, which is a really good idea if any of you have a billion dollars and want to install a group of us in a front office.

Let’s get on that whoever you are and I’ll see you next week when we do it all again.

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THE BIG NUMBERS

BUSTED

INJURIES

Kevin Durant missed another game with his ankle injury and of course the Thunder injury reporting is dubious, but it makes sense that they play it extremely safe. I keep waiting for Russell Westbrook to drop a 40-10-10 game on everybody’s laps and he almost had it last night with 40 points, 10 boards, six assists and three steals. Reggie Jackson got loose for 21 points, nine boards, four assists, a steal and a three and this recent reprieve might be a nice bridge to more stable mid-to-late round value when Durant finally returns. Scott Brooks already sent his message to Jackson that his leash is about a foot long so maybe he doesn’t need to do it again. Either way, Jackson is a long-term hold.

Anderson Varejao’s health status has always been a ticking time bomb and one of the primary reasons folks should have been bullish on buying Kevin Love low all this time. Not only does he steal away the rebounds, but he also takes away from Love’s pick-and-pop opportunities so consider this your last chance to move in on Love. Varejao’s left Achilles’ is the focus now, and the walking boot and crutches point to an extended absence.

Regular readers will know how I feel about Tristan Thompson’s (five points, nine boards, one steal) value, which isn’t all that great due to plenty of fantasy deficiencies. The only silver lining here is that LeBron can get him easier looks than he is accustomed to in past campaigns, and like Love he will also get a bump from not having Varejao around to steal boards. If you want to make a speculative add you’re doing it on your own, but at least there is a sliver of rationale to go with in standard formats.

Tony Wroten was a surprise scratch last night with a knee injury and he hasn’t been able to stay on the floor this season. This just solidifies the value of K.J. McDaniels and Robert Covington, and in the case of the former he also has some help from his mom in keeping teammates in check. Wroten needs optimal conditions to hold onto standard league value when you add up all of his fantasy deficiencies shooting the ball and with turnovers.

Darrell Arthur (leg) did not play for the fourth straight game and while he has been pretty good as a surprising 14-team asset, the real story here is that Kenneth Faried finally got loose for 20 points, 14 boards, one steal and one block in 32 minutes. Arthur was being used by Brian Shaw to keep Faried off the floor, and I doubt any of us are going to bet our houses on an instant turnaround. But Arthur has had a career full of injury issues and the much-ballyhooed blueprint from last season could be unfolding before our eyes for Faried.

Lance Stephenson (pelvic sprain) missed another game last night as trade rumors continue to swirl. Gerald Henderson is in a good spot with a window to produce, and even if Stephenson gets healthy it’s possible that he is being held out due to trade talks. Whatever the case may be, Henderson has extremely limited upside in standard leagues due to well-chronicled fantasy deficiencies. Gary Neal and his 0-for-9 shooting line last night actually appeal more to me, because he can climb the rankings faster, but I’d call him a deep-league add at best until he shows us more.

Deron Williams (calf) is in trade rumors and only the Sacramento Kings appear to be crazy enough to sniff a deal, and he did not play last night with Jarrett Jack filling in. I somehow managed to hold onto Jack in a big money league with the hope something like this would happen, and he posted 17 points with eight assists in 38 minutes last night to pay me off. Based on production alone Jack doesn’t deserve must-own status, but if you want to roll the dice and hope the Nets can unload the monstrous D-Will contract there’s the proverbial upside.

Nicolas Batum (wrist) has been a major disaster this season and the buy low discussions we were having last week touched on this wrist issue and how it could impact his buy low status. He didn’t play last night and had mixed performances sandwiched between his other absence following his tumble against the Bucks.

I wrote that a healthy Batum had a very strong chance of adding 5-10 percentage points to his field goal and 3-point shooting, and that if he could get through the wrist situation unscathed this made for an extremely good buy low moment. If owners get the all clear and everything feels right that’s exactly where we’ll be, and likewise more time off and a bad report or two and owners will know to call it off. Be prepared and go with your gut.

Kobe Bryant (rest) will be back for Christmas Day, with no shortage of things for folks to talk about.

For more injury news check out our injury page.

WELCOME BACK

Jeff Teague (hamstring) returned from a somewhat cloudy injury situation and played 24 minutes off the bench, scoring nine points with six assists and a three in a fairly solid outing. Get him back in lineups.

George Hill might be floating around waiver wires and he shouldn’t have been in standard formats. He returned to action much more forcefully than even optimists could have hoped for, turning in 15 points with two threes, four boards, three assists and one steal in 21 minutes. When he gets up to speed, and if he stays healthy, he should be a focal point of the Pacers’ attack with mid-round upside.

Dwyane Wade (knee) scored 23 points with five rebounds and six assists over 34 minutes in his return to action last night. He did not have a steal, block or three and the popcorn line isn’t really a win considering he needs to go huge nightly to justify his ADP after all the DNPs are factored in.

Brook Lopez got back on the floor for eight minutes and turned in six points with four rebounds, but he’s not the fantasy story in Brooklyn. Mason Plumlee has a mid-round stat set when given 25-plus minutes and he made his case for standalone minutes yet again, scoring 19 points on 9-of-14 shooting with 13 rebounds, two assists, two steals and three blocks in 40 minutes. The Nets are reportedly high enough on him all of a sudden to fend off trade offers, or they’re showcasing him, but whatever problems he had early in the year appear to be in the rear-view mirror. There’s no way I’m dropping Plumlee and I’m even holding tight if Lopez and Kevin Garnett somehow stay healthy for a few weeks. In fact, I’d rather own Plumlee than Lopez, given the latter’s injury issues and mere top-75 value when on the floor.

I was ecstatic to add Ersan Ilyasova (four points, four boards, 17 minutes) in a deeper big-money league knowing that he had posted late-round value on the year prior to last night’s rusty return-game, and over the last two weeks he’s averaging 13.0 points, 1.3 treys and 5.3 boards with good percentages in just 19.4 mpg. Jabari Parker’s injury opened up big time minutes for somebody, and Ilyasova simply needs to walk through the door to deserve a roster slot going forward. Am I going to bet my house that he starts earning that contract? No. But he is the Bucks’ best fit at power forward and John Henson isn’t inspiring much confidence with that foot injury.

LaMarcus Aldridge (illness) returned from a one-game absence and scored 25 points on 9-of-28 shooting with nine rebounds and one block. He’s back to beating me up on my B150 ranking with first round value, as he has missed just two games and is shooting a tad bit over his head, most notably from the foul line (85%, 79.2% career). His defensive stats are a bit up and it’s unlikely he hits 46.9 percent of his 1.1 3-point attempts per game all season, so if he holds it all together and simply regresses a little bit he’ll be a second round guy.

If anything impacts his efficiency such as injuries to other players, himself or just good old wear-and tear for a big man with past injury issues in his ninth season, then he’ll finish where I had him. But those fading my preseason prediction should feel free to talk a boat load of trash right now.

PICKUPS

Jeremy Lin has been in the crosshairs this season but let’s face it, this Kobe shoots the ball every single time thing just couldn’t last forever. Factor in the laser-like focus on all things Kobe by the basketball world, the near guaranteed chance the Kobe System would result in the gory disaster we’ve seen, and the eventual realization by Kobe that he needs to focus on being a facilitator – and you can start to see how Lin can become a valued member of the offense again. I was holding Lin before last night and it stands to reason I like him as an add this morning.

Am I promising no hiccups? Hell no. But last night’s win over the Warriors without Kobe had huge ramifications and if he wants to put a bow on his legacy he’ll take all the obvious cues and try to make his teammates better. And hasn’t that been the knock on him for his entire career, at least when comparing him to the great players he’s mentioned in the same breath with?

Alex Len scored 17 points with seven rebounds, one steal and one block in 28 minutes before fouling out, and he has about two weeks of solid late round value under his belt based largely on a combined 2.9 steals and blocks per game over seven contests. He’s averaging 20 mpg during that span and while the defensive numbers will likely come down, he’s also averaging just 6.7 points and 5.3 boards during that time, and those numbers will increase to combat that.

The real appeal here is his natural improvement and the fact that he’s the guy the Suns want to develop. I don’t see big minutes in his future this year unless Miles Plumlee gets hurt or a trade loosens things up, but if I had to put a number on it he has a 1-in-5 shot at some mid-round value on the year. Late-round value is probably better than a coin flip.

I have no idea how Mario Chalmers would hit the wire but he started at point guard last night and had 11 points, five boards, three assists and two steals with Dwyane Wade around. Once the Heat realize they have little to play for, the older guys with mileage will give way to Super Nintendo Chalmers. And there’s actual late-early round upside for him when that happens.

Shawne Williams scored 17 points with three treys, five boards and one block against the lowly Sixers last night, and of course that comes with Chris Bosh (calf) out. Bosh has said two totally different things about a return, with the possibility of a Christmas Day return or in a worst-case a one-month absence. At this point I’m starting to look at Miami like the Sixers in the sense that we’re just looking for guys with past histories of fantasy value that appear to be relatively healthy. Williams fits that bill. He’s not a must-add player or even a must-own player, but I’m all about upside and I’d consider him a low-to-mid level speculative add.

Luc Mbah a Moute scored a season-high 19 points last night against the Heat, and I’m regretting not being more vocal about picking him up and also following my own advice. He’s not a sexy pickup but has a month of top-115 value in a 14-game sample, the Sixers need his veteran leadership, and if your league is 150 players deep folks have been missing out. Eventually the ride will end, but one can’t argue with that math.

I have no idea why Kyle O’Quinn was floating on wires and regular readers know I’ve been begging you to hold onto him, as even in a limited bench role he has plenty of standalone value to be a must-own player. Now he’s tapping into upside I didn’t even really factor into a controversial Bruski 150 ranking of No. 84/46 (8/9 cat). He scored 18 points with two threes, 13 boards, two steals and one block in 34 minutes without any turnovers last night. Aside from his flagrant fouling issue that could cost him some suspension time down the road, and some health concerns that have previously nagged him, the fact that the Magic are better with him on the floor is starting to weigh heavily here.

I had KO-Q missing seven games this year and playing 25 mpg, and my ranking didn’t have much emphasis on any 3-point shooting, with his current 0.4 3PMs per game exactly what I had him marked down for. He’s blowing away his previous-best of 68.7 percent from the foul line at 87.1 percent for the year, and while it’s possible his newfound shooting touch has translated there that small nine-game sample is likely to regress.

Don’t let that small sample size fool you, though. As mentioned here a million times he was a top 60-90 play last year in a limited minute role for the last 2-3 months of the season. As a sweetener, his blocks haven’t increased over last season (1.3 BPG) despite a 3.4 mpg increase, and that stands a good chance of improving, too. If he somehow works his way into a 30-minute role, you’re damn right he has late early-round upside, especially in 9-cat leagues.

The move into the starting lineup over Channing Frye (eight points, four boards, 22 minutes) looks like it could be a longer-term thing, but like KO-Q the Frye Guy can also maintain enough value to be owned in standard leagues in a low-minute role. Upside is a whole other story, however, so keep that in mind if this trend continues and you’re measuring Frye against any free agent with a hint of upside.

Kelly Olynyk had a patented 14-point, eight-rebound game including a three and steal in 26 minutes. There have been way too many drop references for a guy returning top-70 value on the season, even if the addition of Brandan Wright adds another mouth to feed in the frontcourt. The same goes for Tyler Zeller (22 points, 10 boards, one steal, one block, 10-of-10 FTs), who is returning top 85-120 value on the season in 19.4 mpg. I'm not sure he can keep shooting 64.9 percent from the field all year, especially without Rajon Rondo around, but the lack of Rondo surely wasn't a problem last night.

THE MIDDLE

Harrison Barnes scored five points with four rebounds and one block in 28 minutes last night, and with David Lee (18 minutes, 12 points, seven rebounds, one steal) back surely owners are going to be concerned. The late-round value is probably going to lose his must-own status at some point, but he’s not dead in the water yet and just one injury to Andre Iguodala or Lee would solidify his value again.

No, I’m not buying Charlie Villanueva’s two-game explosion. He had a season-high 18 points with four boards and four threes in 20 minutes last night, but once you get past the chance Dallas finds an upgrade -- Charlie V has durability and performance questions to answer after countless terrible years in the NBA.

Gerald Green got hot and scored 22 points with six treys and one steal, and one of the most added and dropped guys around simply needs to be held knowing he’s a top-100 play on the year. It’s a numbers game and you’d need to be stacked to avoid that.

Andrew Wiggins hasn’t gotten a lot of love in this space because of his poor fantasy stat set, but he erupted against the Cavs last night for 27 points, 9-of-17 FGs, 6-of-8 FTs, two boards and two assists in 37 minutes last night. He needs that type of volume to offset deficiencies and folks still have to remember that he’s returning just top 200-250 value in his 31 mpg. The only hope for him is that the game slows down and he can turn his current 39.3 percent mark this year into something in the 43-45 percent range.

Elfrid Payton has hit 64 percent of his shots over the past four games if you exclude a 0-for-7 dud from Sunday, though I have no idea on earth why we’d do that for evaluation purposes. Last night he scored 12 points on 6-of-10 shooting with seven assists, two steals and four turnovers in 29 minutes, but he’s still way on the other side of top-200 value in almost any split we want to look at. Points league owners are the only ones that should be paying attention here.

Jameer Nelson made noise last night by starting in a 30-minute outing, scoring nine points with one three, four rebounds, 11 assists and four steals. I have not been a proponent of adding Marcus Smart even in a heavy-minute role, mostly because of his shooting issues, and I could see Brad Stevens milking the veteran Nelson for all the leadership he can get out of him before turning the reins over to Smart. Give Nelson a look as a speculative add if you need a point guard.

Brandan Wright’s sneaky fantasy value in Dallas was enhanced by all of the block chances he got playing behind one of the league’s shakier perimeter defenses. Now he lands with a bunch of athletes on the perimeter with the capability to lock guys down, though their spatial awareness will continue to be a work in progress. Wright played just 13 minutes last night and finished with five points, three boards and one block.

He’s still a top 60-100 play (9/8 cat) on the season in just 18.3 mpg, and I can’t see giving up on that upside until the team has had time to gel. Yes, there are challenges to his playing time all over the place but the Celtics might not be done trading and a similar deployment isn’t far-fetched. Whether or not he gets fed easy buckets like he was getting fed in Dallas and whether or not he can keep up the blocks are the operative issues.

DROPS

Dennis Schroder (five points, two boards, four assists, one steal, four turnovers, 24 minutes) moved back into a stash position with Jeff Teague (24 minutes, nine points, six assists, +23 +/- rating) returning to action. In a crowded rotation, though, I’d limit a stash to 14-team leagues in 8-cat and 16-team leagues in 9-cat.

Mo Williams (six points, seven dimes, one steal, one block, 22 minutes) has had a handful of flash games in which he posts big points and assists totals, but he has hit a wall due to injuries and Ricky Rubio’s return is around the corner. He can be dropped for any low-end, late-round value.

Mike Miller hit a bazillion threes the other day and played just eight minutes last night. If you were chasing here’s your sign. While we’re talking Cavs, I don’t care that Dion Waiters scored 19 points with two threes, four assists and three steals. He needs to do that at least five times in a row before I’m overlooking his season-long 16-team value.

C.J. Watson wasn’t exactly tearing it up in his short-window with George Hill out, and now that Hill is back owners that were using him as a desperation play can move on. That said, his 10 points with two rebounds, three assists and one steal in 28 minutes last night could be a familiar site in deep leagues even when he drops to 23-25 mpg.

ODDS AND ENDS

Chandler Parsons (seven points, eight boards, two assists, one three, 25 minutes, 3-of-9 FGs) looks like the loser after Rajon Rondo was acquired and this break marks an excellent chance to buy low on a guy likely to hold mid-round value. Owners may be compelled to see it out rather than part with Parsons for pennies on the dollar, but if you’re sitting on a current mid-round guy whose arrow is pointing down there is a window to work with.

Ronnie Price has added some rough and tumble and sometimes dirty play to Bryon Scott’s squad, and last night he turned in a season-high 17 points with eight assists, three steals and three treys in 31 minutes with Kobe out. He needs to do this at least five more times in a row after Kobe returns to stay on the fantasy radar.