By The Numbers Week 4
I’m writing this article on Monday evening so I’m afraid that it’s not taking into account the result of the Arsenal/Liverpool match. We’ll, it actually starts in 3 minutes so you never know, I might have some fascinating insight by the end of this article (to obviously accompany my normal insights). The final results notwithstanding, I’ve had a very similar week to last week; 120 for Perfect XI, 117.3 in Fantrax AMCR League (with Giroud and Sanchez to play), a paltry 64 Fantrax Beat the Bloggers and a rather lame 38 in the official Premier League game. I’m looking to make some fundamental changes to my team this week with two transfers in the bank.
Last week’s cheatsheet performance (a free download is available here) was hampered by a staggering 55% of games finishing in a draw – that’s also the Arsenal / Liverpool score but it’s only been 7 minutes so we should give them a chance. At the far ends of the scale where we concentrate it looks like Manchester United are the only ones to really let us down. What does this week look like?
When you get scores over 80% you should be able to take those teams to the bank. To put it in perspective, there’s just a 0.015% that Watford, West Ham and Crystal Palace all win which is only slightly more likely than getting 4 numbers on the lottery. It would appear that loading up on City, Liverpool, Chelsea and Arsenal should be the start (and end) of this week’s plan. With United having a spluttering start to the season it’s interesting that City are twice as likely to be successful in Week 4.
Of course, those of you who like a bet will be very happy if you followed my suggestion last week of taking the 3.3 available on Spurs and Leicester to draw.
Goalkeepers
Last week’s selection of Romero, Courtois and McCarthy managed to score 7, 14 and 5 which is respectable if not exceptional. Personally, I broke with my own advice as I thought I would and the result was a -8 for Adrian’s stand in Darren Randolph. Goes to show that it’s all well and good giving the advice as long as I actually take it myself!
Here’s this week’s selection:
There really doesn’t appear to be a lot of value in the Beat the Bloggers Fantrax game from the more expensive goalkeepers. Mignolet gets close but you have to drop down to the very reasonably priced Courtois before you get to my first selection. Crystal Palace are in fine form but as I’ve always said, you want a great goalkeeper who will at least be tested – this appears to fit the bill. Cech is next in the list and as I’m writing he still has his clean sheet. Next comes Butland, a new name in this column and one who has proven himself worthy. West Brom are hardly setting the world alight (credit where credit due for this week though). Finally, another new name – Stekelenburg; he’s been really unpredictable to date but a 32% probability of winning with a clean sheet, against Norwich and a ridiculously low 3102, he might actually be the answer to filling up on all of those City, Liverpool and Chelsea players…..
Currently I fancy Courtois – especially as the Terry debacle might put some other manages off.
Player Picks
Last week I managed to pick three defenders who all kept a clean sheet and six other players who….. well….made it onto the pitch (Sanchez still has a chance to redeem me). This week my nine choices are: Aguero, Kane, Costa, Hazard, Silva, Sterling, Ivanovic, Kolarov and Bacuna (yep – a villa player).
So that's me finished and it's also times up for the bore-draw that was the Arsenal / Liverpool match. On the plus side, that's elevated me to 139.8 in the AMCR game. See you next week.
