By The Numbers Week 38

Wow, it really doesn’t feel like 38 weeks since the start of the season. I guess it’s true that when you’re having fun time just runs away with you. It’s been a great season too; not so much in the game, where I’m stuck at around the 5000 mark, but from the ‘By The Numbers’ column point of view it’s been awesome.

We’ve had great success with our goalkeeper picks – in fact, I’m happy to go against any other manager next year – 38 goalkeeper selections, one per week, the highest return on investment wins.

Similarly the predictor has done extremely well, including getting 9 out of 10 match results correct in one week and 8 out of 10 regularly.

We’ve investigated how to adapt our approach to teams who been thrashed the week before, discussed the ins and outs of value for money and shown you the games with the highest probability of goals with our Poisson predictions. I hope you’ve enjoyed reading it as much as I’ve enjoyed writing it.

So is anything different at the end of the season? Well there will be goals – more than an average week if history serves. Of course the really important thing to remember in the last week of the season is that all bets are off when it comes to discounts. Personally I only hold Fabregas on a really long term discount (Week 2 unbelievably). He’s cost me the equivalent of 199.43m over the last 37 weeks but he’s returned 292 points – the very definition of value for money. Similarly I have had Schmeichal at £1m since week 31. That’s just £6m of cost for a return of 95 points! Does anyone else have a player who’s come even remotely close to managing a feat like that?

So, with a weary heart and one eye on August, here’s the goalkeeper choices for the final week:

Goalkeepers

Well the interesting part for all of you readers is that there are only three goalkeepers that warrant your interest, Ospina, Courtois and Schmeichel. From those three only the first two appear to offer value – Leicester have just been doing too well to stay cheap I’m afraid. Of course that works on the basis that you care this week – you may think that choosing the cheapest goalkeeper will give you the chance to spend big elsewhere and I’m not going to argue with you. Remember, it’s your last chance.

Personally I have the world’s easiest decision – I have Schmeichel held at £1m. Job done.

Predictor

Wow, what a way to finish for Leicester. It was only a few weeks ago that they were in dire straits but now they’re absolutely flying and according to the predictor they’re the favourites for this week. Not just favourites but really strong favourites – odds of 1.53/1 is pretty hot if you ask me. There’s also five other teams who are favourites too; City, Chelsea, Villa, Everton and Stoke.

You have to think about where you are in the process though. If you’re close to your nearest competitor in the league then what are you waiting for? Go crazy! There are no right answers this week – as Nike say – Just do it!

So that’s me finished – I’ll be back next week with an end of the season wrap up.