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By The Numbers Week 31

Rob Allen

Last week was a really good week for me – any week where your front three manage 6 goals has to go down as a good one. I moved up a few thousand places and I'm hoping to keep my final push going into this week..

Goalkeepers


There are only two goalkeeper choices this week that have a greater than 32% chance of success whilst offering good value for money – the well owned Courtois (31.26% ownership) and the completely forgotten Myhill (1.01% ownership). There are many who will think that Guzan is a solid choice with a double game week but personally I think that an opening game away to United is likely to make it a very poor decision. You could go with Robert Green if you really want to prove your courage! I don’t think that I could ever suggest a goalkeeper who’s conceded 51 goals and lost 19 games!

Predictor


It’s a strange week when the same team appears as the most likely to lose and the fourth most likely to win! Tricky huh? I think that there could be some benefit in picking the odd attacking midfielder like N’Zogbia, hoping that he does well against QPR and gets something out of the United game. QPR look set for a battering with two away games and a miniscule 3.78% chance of a double win. I think that you won’t be able to go too far wrong by picking attacking players from Chelsea, United, West Brom, Villa and Arsenal. I think that you should be looking at Costa, Fabregas, Rooney, Mata, McAuley, Morrison, N’Zogbia, Sanchez and Giroud.

Poisson


Week 31 brings with it the promise of goals galore with Arsenal vs Liverpool and Palace vs City on every bettors ‘both teams to score’ coupon. I find it interesting that the North East derby looks boring with a 64% chance of 2 goals or less – I wonder if there will be more red cards than goals? You’ll all be aware that the home team is generally far more likely to be successful than the away team so it’s interesting that the Poisson model forecasts results for West Ham, Newcastle, Tottenham and City – I’m not convinced but we’ll know soon enough.

See you next week!