NHL Stock Watch: Victor Hedman rising, Jonathan Toews falling
UPGRADE
• Victor Hedman, D, Lightning: Tall defensemen often need extra time to develop, so it wasn’t a surprise when Hedman’s career breakthrough didn’t happen until his fifth year. That said, this is the first season — Hedman’s eighth — where he’s going to get serious Norris Trophy consideration. The goal spike is probably tied to a little puck luck — his highest shooting percentage — but Hedman is also on pace for an absurd 59 assists. Tampa Bay needs him more than ever, in a season where Steven Stamkos has played just 17 games.
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• Brad Marchand, LW, Bruins: I can understand why last year’s 37-goal season was panned by the Regression Police, but Marchand is on pace for a greater point performance this year — and it’s come despite Patrice Bergeron’s lost season. And with Bergeron starting to come around, Marchand’s game has been spiking of late — Boston’s resident pest has a 7-6-13 line and 53 shots (second to Bergeron’s 66) over the last month. Marchand would probably be a better fantasy player if not for his versatility; the Bruins are never going to pigeonhole him into a scoring role. But we’re still poised to make a profit here.
• Sergei Bobrovsky, G, Bluejackets: He has a Vezina Trophy on his resume, so perhaps this isn’t a true career year. Then again, Columbus’s surge has pushed Bob Dog legitimately into the MVP discussion. A .937 save percentage at even strength is absurd, and a 2.00 goals-against average on just three shutouts reflects the consistency at play. Columbus might want to rest its ace goalie a bit, though; Bobrovsky has never started more than 58 games, but he’s on pace to obliterate that number.
• Leon Draisaitl, C/RW, Oilers: Improvement isn’t always linear with young players, but we appreciate when it falls that way. Draisaitl did little as a rookie teenager; stepped forward in Year 2; and now looks as a potential first-line star, though it could be the Connor McDavid effect talking. A major spike in shots and a significant pump in power play time are behind Draisaitl’s 16-22-38 line. (And don’t forget Patrick Maroon while we’re at it, the left winger on this trio, and holder of 17 goals. He’s still free in about half of Yahoo leagues.)
• Nathan Beaulieu, D, Canadiens: We’ll ignore the 7-1 shellacking Beaulieu and the Habs took against Minnesota, and focus on the bigger picture. Beaulieu currently checks in as a Top 30 fantasy blueliner, combining a 2-14-16 line, a plus-13 rating, 25 PIMs and 61 shots. With steady power-play time, he has a reasonable chance to push to 30 or more points by the end of the year.
DOWNGRADE
• Jonathan Toews, C, Blackhawks: Maybe he’s saving his hero cape for the playoffs. A rotten seven goals is obviously tied to an equally-rotten 7.4 shooting percentage, but 14 assists and an even plus-minus also qualify as disappointments. The top line in Chicago is whatever pairing Patrick Kane skates with.
• Andrew Ladd, LW, Islanders: There’s a modest jump in penalty minutes, so at least the Islanders are getting something for their money. Alas, Ladd won’t shoot the puck (63 attempts) and nothing much is coming from his playmaking (four assists). He’s buried on the third line for the moment, and it could turn into fourth-line work at any time. Ladd is still cluttering up 45 percent of Yahoo rosters.
• Jamie Benn, LW, Stars: We appreciate the bushel of assists, but Benn goes down as a healthy flop in the first round. His shooting aggressiveness has disappeared, he’s carrying a negative rating, and even his hit numbers are down. All the action in Dallas seems to be on the other key line, where Tyler Sequin and Jason Spezza hang out.
