NFL Wins: Over/Under

Jeff Baldwin (@JeffBaldwin4) and Jeremy Wardwell (@jdwardwell5) are picking against the spread all season long in Rotoworld's Season Pass, and it’s time for their NFL team Over/Unders. Jeremy and Jeff weigh in on team win totals and related team expectations for the upcoming season.

Indianapolis - Over/Under 10.5 wins

Jeff: The Colts head into this season after winning their second straight AFC South division title after another impressive eleven win season. QB Andrew Luck led them to the AFC Championship game only to be dismantled once again by the eventual Super Bowl Champion New England Patriots. During the offseason, the Colts were able to sign WR Andre Johnson and RB Frank Gore which will help this offense to be even more potent. Wide receivers Reggie Wayne and Hakeem Nicks are no longer on the team. The Colts drafted wide receiver Phillip Dorsett who will compete with WR Donte Moncrief for the number three wideout spot. WR T.Y. Hilton will team up with WR Andre Johnson as the Colts will once again have one of the best passing attacks in the NFL. This offense is clearly poised to be better this year which is scary for the rest of the league. The biggest question mark similar to year's will be the defense. Can this unit step up and play at a higher level and get the team to a Super Bowl? That remains to be seen. I see a similar type season for the Colts this year as they will clearly benefit playing in a weak division. The Texans losing RB Arian Foster for at least the beginning part of the season will only help the Colts coast to another division title. There is room for this team to get better on both sides of the ball as their win total could easily increase by a game or so. Given the fact that the Colts’ overall strength of schedule is deemed one of the easiest in the NFL as their opponents’ winning percentage is a lowly .417 makes them a solid over selection. The Colts have been a model of consistency over the last three years during the regular season as they have finished with exactly eleven wins each season. Look for the Colts to finish this season with 11-12 wins. Take OVER 10.5 wins.

Jeremy: The Indianapolis Colts have taken one step further in the playoffs each of the last three years, getting knocked off by the eventual Super Bowl Champion Patriots in last year’s AFC title game. This year, I expect them to make it at least that far again. Andrew Luck (Ranked the #2 QB by Rotoworld) has gotten better each season and now has more talent surrounding him than at any other point in his career. The Colts brought in Andre Johnson and drafted Phillip Dorsett to complement T.Y. Hilton in what will be one of the best receiving corps in league. In the backfield, the Trent Richardson era finally came to an end with the arrival of Frank Gore. Despite his age, Gore is in line to have a strong season as he won’t be called upon to carry as heavy a load as he did in San Francisco with the other offensive weapons around him. Defensively, Indy improved with the signings of DL Kendall Langford and LB Trent Cole who will help shore up an often porous front seven that gave up over 113 rushing yards per game. The Colts will play one of the easiest schedules in the league this season and could be 8-1 before their bye in Week 10. Look for the Colts to put up even more impressive offensive numbers this year and have a defense that while not spectacular will hold teams in check more than last year. I like the Colts at 13-3 this season with an outside shot at 15 wins. Take OVER 10.5 wins.

Editor’s Note: For updated rankings, projections, tiers, exclusive columns and tons more, check out our Draft Guide! Also, be sure you’re following Rotoworld Football on Twitter for all the latest news from camp.

Cincinnati – Over/Under 8.5 wins

Jeff: The Bengals once again fell short in the playoffs as they were defeated by the Colts in the Wildcard round. The Bengals managed to finish the season with ten wins which was an impressive feat given how many of their key players were injured during the year. WR A.J. Green suffered a toe injury which cost him some games and limited him in others. TE Tyler Eifert went down in Week 1 after suffering an elbow dislocation which forced him to miss the entire season. RB Giovani Bernard also went down which forced him to miss some time. RB Jeremy Hill took full advantage of his opportunity as the starter as he led the NFL in rushing yards and yards per carry over the final nine games of the season. Hill is the clear starter when the 2015 season opens up as Bernard will be the passing down back moving forward. This offense averaged close to 23 points/game last season despite all their injuries. Look for that number to increase this year with everyone healthy. QB Andy Dalton will have his share of weapons to choose from as he needs to lead to this team back to the playoffs and more importantly get a much needed playoff win. This team can't afford another one and done in the playoffs. On the defensive side of the ball, the Bengals will need to be better this year in both stopping the run and limiting the pass after being ranked in both categories towards the bottom half of the league. Some positive news out of camp is how good DT Geno Atkins has looked. Atkins clearly wasn't the same player last year after he tore his ACL in Week 9 of the 2013 season. If Atkins can perform up to his capability it will help this defense out tremendously in all facets. The Bengals haven't finished with fewer than 9 wins in the last four seasons. This is a team that plays well in the regular season only to disappoint in the playoffs. I think this team will once again be in contention to win this division as they'll finish the season with 9-10 wins. Take OVER 8.5 wins.

Minnesota – Over/Under 7.5 wins

Jeff: The Vikings finished the 2014 season with seven wins. They capped off the season playing competitive football as they'll look to build off that momentum heading into the 2015 season. The Vikings get a huge boost on the offensive side of the ball as RB Adrian Peterson returns after being suspended a year ago. I think he heads into this season very motivated, and it shouldn't surprise anyone if he produces at a high level despite his age and being away from football for a year. QB Teddy Bridgewater struggled early on after taking over as the starting quarterback in Week 3 after QB Matt Cassel went down with an injury, but played better as the season progressed. I think Bridgewater will continue to get better and wind up being a solid quarterback for years to come in this league. The Vikings made a trade for WR Mike Wallace which adds another solid weapon to this offense. Wallace will team up with WR Charles Johnson as the starting receivers. Tight end Kyle Rudolph is another weapon at Bridgewater's disposal, but the main issue here is whether he can finally stay healthy. The Vikings’ offense averaged 20.3 points/game last season. Look for them to exceed that number this season with the return of Peterson and addition of Wallace. As for the defensive side of the ball, this unit has room to grow as they have a nice, young nucleus of players. The Vikings used their first three picks in the draft on defensive players which isn't a surprise given Mike Zimmer's defensive-minded approach. The Vikings’ total here is 7.5 which is a number they can exceed. They need to be one win better than last season so with the return of RB Adrian Peterson there's no reason why this won't happen. Look for the Vikings to finish the 2015 season with eight wins as this franchise will continue to move in the right direction. Take OVER 7.5 wins.

Tampa Bay – Over/Under 6 wins

Jeff: Tampa Bay is coming off a dismal two-win season as they drafted QB Jameis Winston with the first overall pick in the draft hoping that he'd be the answer to help turn this organization around. This team struggled to score as they only averaged 17 points/game which ranked them towards the bottom of the league, and struggled from a total yardage perspective as well. One bright spot for this offense was the play of WR Mike Evans as he recorded twelve touchdowns in his rookie season. Tampa is hoping the Winston to Evans connection will be an effective one for years to come. As for the running game, the Bucs will look to RB Doug Martin to hopefully regain his productivity during his rookie campaign, but that will be a tall order given the lack of an effective offensive line. RB Charles Sims will most likely be in the line to be the receiving back. The biggest challenge this offense will face is running the ball with any effectiveness and consistency. With that said, the Buccaneers offense will most likely be forced to throw the ball a ton. Defensively, the Bucs clearly have one of the weaker units in the league and will once again struggle slowing offenses down. There wasn't much improvement in the offseason either as Tampa Bay only dedicated one draft pick to defense. They struggled in getting any pressure on the quarterback last season so that will most likely continue heading into the 2015 season. This team is clearly in rebuilding mode as they still clearly lack the talent on both sides of the ball to be competitive in this league. The total here is six which means the Buccaneers will have to be five wins better than last season in order for them to finish over in wins. I don't see this club making that big of jump from a win perspective this season. Look for the Buccaneers to finish the season with 4-5 wins. Take UNDER 6 wins.

Chicago - Over/Under 7 wins

Jeff: The Bears come off a very disappointing five win season as their defense couldn't stop anyone giving up close to a league worst 27.6 points/game and 377 yards/game. I don't see how this team got any better on the defensive side of the ball in the offseason. They will once again struggle slowing offenses down. As for their offense, they traded WR Brandon Marshall to the Jets as they'll look to replace him with first round pick WR Kevin White. The Bears also added WR Eddie Royal to their receiving corps. Royal will also be leaned on from a target perspective with the departure of Marshall. RB Matt Forte will once again be relied on heavily to make plays not only in the running game, but the passing game as well. Forte is getting up there in age so you have to wonder at what point his previous workload will start to take a toll on him from a durability standpoint. This offense clearly still has weapons with Forte, WR Alshon Jeffery and TE Martellus Bennett and will have no problems moving the football and putting points on the board. QB Jay Cutler will once again be behind center as questions still come up about his future with the team. If Cutler fails to produce this season, it won't be due to a lack of weapons around him. It wouldn't surprise me one bit if he struggles with mistakes he's prone to making for the coaching staff to make a move especially if the losses are piling up. This team needs to come to the realization that they need a total overhaul especially on the defensive side of the ball where they clearly lack talent and playmakers. The Bears play in one of the toughest divisions in football which doesn't bode well for their chances this season. They are clearly the worst team in this division so a repeat of last season is a strong possibility. The Bears’ defense will once again be their downfall as they'll finish the season with 5-6 wins. Take UNDER 7 wins.

Jeremy: 2014 was an absolute train wreck for the Chicago Bears and 2015 doesn’t promise to be much better. After winning eight games while averaging nearly 28 PPG in 2013, the Bears expected to be near the top of the division with a roster loaded with offensive talent in 2014. Those expectations fell short as the team won only 5 games and the offense sputtered all season averaging less than 20 PPG leading to the firing of head coach Marc Trestman and trade of WR Brandon Marshall. With Marshall gone, Alshon Jeffery (Ranked the #11 WR overall by Rotoworld) will assume the top WR spot and be paired with talented rookie WR Kevin White who was drafted #7 out of West Virginia as QB Jay Cutler’s primary targets. Last season, Cutler had the highest completion percentage and most touchdowns thrown in a season in his career. Unfortunately for Bears fans, he also continued to display an inability to lead his team when they needed him the most. He was responsible for 21 turnovers that forced the Bears to lean on a defense that gave up almost 28 PPG. While surpassing the 1,000 yard rushing mark for the fifth time in his career, RB Matt Forte saw his overall carries drop last year. The departure of Trestman will create fewer targets in the passing game for Forte and more carries. With the offensive line returning to health, Forte should be in line for a big year if his body can hold up with the increased workload. The Bears face a daunting schedule with their opponents having a combined .531 winning percentage and five of their first eight games against playoff teams from 2014. I can never trust a Cutler-led team and combined with a weak defense and a tough schedule, I see 2015 being very similar to 2014 for the Bears. Look for Chicago to end up at 6-10 and once again on the outside looking in to the playoffs. Take UNDER 7 wins.

Cleveland – Over/Under 6.5 wins

Jeff: The Browns finished the 2014 season with seven wins. After winning six out of the first nine games, the Browns proceeded to lose the next six out of seven games. I think heading into the 2015 season we are going to see more of the team that finished the season. This offense will once again struggle to score points after mustering only 18.7 points/game a season ago. I think this number could very easily come down this year. With the lack of offensive weapons it is going to be very difficult for this team to match their win total from a year ago. The Browns will most likely go with Josh McCown at quarterback, but it is safe to say that at some point during the season QB Johnny Manziel will be behind center. The Browns finished in the middle of the pack last season rushing the football as they averaged 108 yards/game. All signs are pointing toward RB Isaiah Crowell handling the carries on the early downs, and rookie RB Duke Johnson acting as the passing down back. From a wide receiver perspective, this is clearly one of the weaker receiving corps in the league. When WR Dwayne Bowe is your number one wide receiver, you know there is cause for concern at that position. As for their defense, this is a group that gave up a league-worst 141.6 yards/game on the ground. I can see the Browns finishing this season towards the bottom of that category yet again. It doesn't help they play in a division that has teams that run the ball very well with the likes of RB Jeremy Hill, RB Le'Veon Bell and RB Justin Forsett. Also, the Browns’ strength of schedule ranks ninth in the league as their opponents’ winning percentage last season is .543. This is another factor working against them. In the end, the Browns will once again struggle scoring points and stopping opposing offenses which will result in them falling short in their posted win total. Take UNDER 6.5 wins.

Atlanta - Over/Under 8.5 wins

Jeremy: The Falcons head into this season after a disappointing 6-10 2014 resulted in a coaching change with Dan Quinn coming over from Seattle to take over as the head coach. Not much went right on either side of the ball for Atlanta as the defense gave up nearly 400 YDS/G and put no pressure on opposing QBs as they totaled only 22 sacks. The offense ranked 12th overall with 23.8 PPG but was very one-dimensional relying heavily on the passing game as running backs Steven Jackson and Devonta Freeman were ineffective. Jackson is gone and Freeman will battle incoming rookie Tevin Coleman for snaps in what will most likely be a running attack by committee. Matt Ryan still has one of the best WR tandems in the league with Julio Jones (Ranked the #4 overall WR by Rotoworld) and Roddy White and should eclipse 4,500 passing yards for the fourth straight season. Together Jones and White totaled more than 2,500 receiving yards to go with 13 touchdowns. They will be leaned on heavily once again as the TE position is up in the air and the running game is being led by talented but unproven youngsters. Defensively, the Falcons have started to address some of their flaws by drafting DE Vic Beasley with the 8th pick overall and bringing in free agents DL Adrian Clayborn and DE O’Brien Schofield who should immediately improve the league’s worst pass rush. Atlanta has the most favorable schedule in the league with 13 of their games being played against teams who had a .500 record or below in 2014. Despite their obvious shortcomings at RB and TE, Atlanta has made significant improvements on defense to go with their impressive aerial attack and new coaching philosophy. Look for the Falcons to bounce back and go 9-7 and be in the conversation for the division title at the end of the year. Take OVER 8.5 wins.

Miami - Over/Under 9 wins

Jeremy: After an 8-8 season and missing the playoffs for the sixth straight season the Dolphins went out in the offseason and added significant talent on both sides of the ball. Perhaps the biggest move was the signing of DL Ndamukong Suh who will add another weapon to an already talented front seven that features Cameron Wake and Olivier Vernon who combined for 18 sacks last year. That number should be even higher in 2015 as opposing offensive lines will have to focus more on Suh. Offensively, Miami is led by rising QB Ryan Tannehill (ranked the #12 QB by Rotoworld) who had to be happy with the signings of WR’s Kenny Stills and Greg Jennings to complement talented slot receiver Jarvis Landry and rookie burner DeVante Parker. However, the acquisition that may be most overlooked is the signing of TE Jordan Cameron who, if he can stay healthy, will offer Tannehill a more reliable red zone option after the Dolphins ranked 21st in red zone scoring in 2014. The running backs will be led by Lamar Miller but he will be pushed by rookie Jay Ajayi. Miami will play a soft schedule early on with five of their first six opponents having records under .500 in 2014 and even though it gets harder in the second half, I see them improving on last year’s win total. With the addition of key pieces on defense and a continually improving offense, I expect the Dolphins to challenge the Patriots for the AFC East title with 10 or 11 wins. Take OVER 9 wins.

Philadelphia - Over/Under 9.5 wins

Jeremy: What does the coach/GM of a 10 win team do after a season in which his team averaged nearly 30 PPG and ranked 5th in total offense? For Chip Kelly the answer was to ship out the injury prone starting QB, the RB who rushed for nearly 3,000 yards over the last two seasons and the WR who lead the team in receptions, yards and touchdowns. Those players were replaced by an even more injury prone QB (Sam Bradford), a RB coming off the heaviest workload of his career (DeMarco Murray) and a veteran WR whose best season was six years ago (Miles Austin). Despite these moves, I see the Eagles remaining in the top third of the league in offense this season solely because of Kelly’s offensive philosophy. The departure of Maclin will clear the way for second year WR Jordan Matthews to take on an even more prominent role after an impressive rookie campaign. Murray should again have a solid season but will take a step back due to last year’s heavy workload. The biggest issue lies with the defense where the Eagles ranked 28th in total defense while giving up 25 PPG. The additions of CB’s Byron Maxwell and Walter Thurmond will help, but there are still significant depth questions in a secondary that gave up nearly 265 passing yards per game. Philly won’t face an overly difficult schedule but the defense will be tested right out of the gate as they face Atlanta, Dallas and the New York Jets in the first three weeks. Despite a flurry of activity in the offseason, the Eagles did little, if anything, to improve and may have taken a step back in the end. There is no doubt a Chip Kelly-led offense will put up points but the question is, how long can they keep it up with Sam Bradford as the starting QB? And, when he inevitably gets hurt, can Mark Sanchez step in and carry the load? Ultimately, I see Philly making the playoffs but as an 8-9 win wild card team. Take UNDER 9.5 wins.

Kansas City - Over/Under 8.5 wins

Jeremy: The Kansas City Chiefs ended 2014 with a 9-7 record as they battled various injuries and an impotent passing attack that scored only 18 touchdowns through the air. They tried to address that problem as they bid farewell to the consistently underachieving Dwayne Bowe and brought in Jeremy Maclin from Philadelphia. Maclin is coming off a career year and if he can stay healthy will provide Alex Smith the true #1 receiver he’s been missing. Health also remains a question mark for another key offensive weapon, RB Jamaal Charles. Charles (Ranked the #5 RB by Rotoworld) ended up over 1,000 yards rushing for the third year in a row and fifth time in his career despite nagging leg injuries. Charles and Maclin will be the primary offensive threats for Andy Reid but TE Travis Kelce who had a solid season will be expected to shoulder an even larger role this year. The Chiefs’ defense ranked second in the league in points allowed as they yielded less than 18 PPG. A key factor for their stingy scoring defense was the ability to defend the pass which should only get better with the anticipated return of CB Eric Berry who missed the end of last season after being diagnosed with Hodgkin’s Lymphoma. However, little effort was made to shore up a defensive front that gave up nearly 130 YDS/G on the ground. The Chiefs face a difficult schedule early on as their first four games are against teams with .500 records or better last season. The over/under on wins for this Chiefs team is 8.5 and given the lack of significant upgrades on run defense combined with injury, talent and depth questions on offense, I see that being a difficult number to reach. A more realistic record is 7-9, just ahead of the Raiders in the division. Take UNDER 8.5 wins.