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The NFL Teams With The Best Chance To Hit The Jackpot In The Draft

Business Insider

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Going into this week's NFL Draft, some teams have a much more potential to hit it big than others.

Pro Football Reference calculated the expected value of all 256 draft slots based on an statistic called "average weighted career approximate value." Basically, it's the average career value of every player ever drafted at that slot.

The average No. 1 pick has an expected value of 62, for example, while the No. 100 pick has an expected value of 17.

Using those numbers, you can add up all of a team's 2014 draft picks and get the total expected value of each team's draft.

You find that teams vary wildly here.

The Rams lead the way with a total expected value of 199 on 12 picks. The Indianapolis Colts, on the other hand, are in last place with a total value of 60 on just five picks. The average team has a value of 120, with 8 picks.

Here's the total expected value for all 32 teams:

  1. St. Louis: 199 (12 picks)
  2. Cleveland: 192 (10 picks)
  3. Houston: 178 (11 picks)
  4. Jacksonville: 177 (11 picks)
  5. San Francisco: 147 (11 picks)
  6. Atlanta: 145 (10 picks)
  7. NY Jets: 142 (12 picks)
  8. Minnesota: 133 (8 picks)
  9. Green Bay: 133 (9 picks)
  10. Buffalo: 128 (7 picks)
  11. NY Giants: 127 (7 picks)
  12. Dallas: 126 (11 picks)
  13. Pittsburgh: 126 (9 picks)
  14. Detroit: 125 (8 picks)
  15. Baltimore: 125 (8 picks)
  16. Oakland: 123 (6 picks)
  17. Cincinnati: 115 (9 picks)
  18. Chicago: 113 (7 picks)
  19. New Orleans: 105 (7 picks)
  20. San Diego: 105 (7 picks)
  21. Miami: 102 (7 picks)
  22. New England: 101 (8 picks)
  23. Tennessee: 99 (6 picks)
  24. Carolina: 97 (7 picks)
  25. Arizona: 96 (6 picks)
  26. Philadelphia: 95 (6 picks)
  27. Seattle: 93 (7 picks)
  28. Tamp Bay: 91 (5 picks)
  29. Washington: 87 (6 picks)
  30. Denver: 85 (7 picks)
  31. Kansas City: 77 (6 picks)
  32. Indianapolis: 60 (5 picks)

Here it is in chart form. St. Louis, Cleveland, Houston, and Jacksonville have by far the most potential.

Tony Manfred/Business Insider

Some other takeaways:

  • The Colts really screwed themselves in this draft by trading for Trent Richardson
  • The fallout from the RGIII trade continues. Washington has the 4th-lowest expected value, while St. Louis ranked 1st.
  • The 49ers have huge potential to improve their already-stacked team.

This doesn't guarantee that the Rams will "win" the NFL Draft. But historically they have a much, much higher chance of hitting the jackpot than anyone else.



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