NFL Stock Watch: Arian Foster rising, Matt Forte falling
STOCK UP
Arian Foster: All reports have been overwhelmingly positive coming out of Miami regarding how Foster has looked coming off a serious Achilles tear, and while offseason comments should often be ignored, it’s become clear the Dolphins signed him to be the team’s lead back. Foster will turn 30 years old later this month and got just 2.6 YPC last season, but he also gained 227 receiving yards over just four games, as he remains one of the better pass catching backs in the league. Moreover, Jay Ajayi recently missed time as he continues to deal with knee issues, and Miami doesn’t want to rely on him at this point. It’s a safe bet to expect Foster to miss a handful of games in 2016, but when on the field, he’s going to be used as a workhorse, so he’s moving up draft boards and should be treated as a top-20 fantasy back right now.
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Martellus Bennett: It’s sounding more and more likely that the Patriots are going to use two-tight end sets as their base offense, which is obviously huge news for Bennett’s value. He’s one year removed from gaining 916 yards, and he gets a big upgrade at quarterback now in New England. Bennett could easily flirt with double-digit touchdowns as a big red-zone threat in one of the league’s best offenses, especially if he plays the amount of snaps that would come with a starting role.
Sammie Coates: While in theory Markus Wheaton gets the biggest bump in value with Martavis Bryant suspended for the year, Coates may ultimately be the bigger beneficiary. During the first five games of last season when Bryant was out, Wheaton totaled nine catches for 228 yards. He scored one touchdown (with 233 yards) over eight starts. Meanwhile, Coates got in terrific shape during the offseason (previously an issue), and all reports by the coaching staff have been glowing, with him regularly working with the first-team offense. He’s the more talented of the two and could immediately start opposite Antonio Brown. Coates’ ADP is currently outside the top-70 among wide receivers, but expect that to move inside the top-50 within the next few weeks.
Rashad Jennings: With little competition on the roster, Jennings enters 2016 as the Giants’ clear lead back. He averaged 21.5 touches over the final four games last season, and New York should have a solid offense in 2016. According to Fantasy Pros ADP, Jennings is the RB37, so he makes for a nice value even if last season was the first in which he played 16 games during his career. Still, he’s 31 years old, so those who take Jennings would be wise to back him up with Paul Perkins.
Michael Thomas: Here’s another young receiver getting hyped by his coaching staff, and with Marques Colston gone, and the seemingly average Willie Snead the only player standing in his way of a starting spot, the rookie needs to be taken seriously. At 6-3, 212, Thomas is a better red-zone option than Brandin Cooks, and obviously the pass-heavy Saints offense is a terrific situation to be in. Thomas will soon be shooting up draft boards.
STOCK DOWN
Alshon Jeffery: Jeffery could be a monster if he were to stay healthy in a full season without Brandon Marshall sharing targets, but health remains a serious issue. It always seems to be a chronic tissue problem with the talented wideout, and he’s already dealing with a hamstring injury in camp. The latest issue is reportedly mild, but it’s a reminder of the durability concerns with Jeffery, who’s being aggressively drafted as a top-10 WR (ahead of Marshall). He carries more risk than most wide receivers with such a high ADP.
Ameer Abdullah: He has intriguing talent, but Abdullah will cede passing down work to Theo Riddick and goal-line carries to Stevan Ridley (or Zach Zenner), really limiting his upside, especially on a Detroit team that struggles with run blocking. Abdullah is also still recovering from offseason shoulder surgery, and the Lions seem intent on using a committee in their backfield. Sticking with Detroit, if Eric Ebron’s Achilles injury proves serious, bump Marvin Jones up your draft sheets.
Dorial Green-Beckham: At 6-5, 235 and clearly the most physically gifted receiver on the Titans, there’s definitely potential for DGB to break out during his sophomore campaign, especially with Marcus Mariota having a good chance to improve during his second year in the league as well. But Tennessee’s coaching staff continues to label Green-Beckham as inconsistent during practices, and he’s often being drafted with full expectations said breakout is inevitable. The Titans plan on running a lot in 2016, and there’s little evidence DGB can run routes effectively and actually be a productive NFL receiver.
Austin Seferian-Jenkins: Another young player with seemingly a ton of potential yet if you listen to his team’s coaching staff, there’s more reason for pessimism than anything else. ASJ is a former second round pick and is entering year three in the league (with an emerging QB), but the tight end has battled injuries (and coaches) throughout his career, and there are reports he’s actually fighting the pedestrian Cameron Brate for the Bucs’ starting job. Seferian-Jenkins’ current ADP is ahead of Dwayne Allen’s, which seems like a mistake.
Matt Forte: Maybe it’s just coach speak, but the Jets’ staff continue to claim Bilal Powell is going to split work with Forte this season, which can’t be totally ignored. Forte will turn 31 years old this season, and he’s historically struggled at the goal line, so he’s something of a risky pick at an ADP of RB14 (ahead of C.J. Anderson). There’s a real chance Forte is part of a full-blown committee now in New York.
