AccuScore provides football predictions and projections by calculating the precise probability teams have of winning each game, their division and making the playoffs. Using projected lineups, football predictions are created by simulating each game of the season one play at a time, 10,000 times. Visit AccuScore for weekly updates for all football and sports predictions.
The moment the New York Jets acquired Tim Tebow from the Denver Broncos, the Jets' 2012 NFL season was destined to start amid a quarterback controversy. Although Tebowmania hasn't fully taken hold of the Big Apple, Tebow is hardly just an ordinary backup. Mark Sanchez, who has been the Jet's starter for the past three seasons, still remains coach Rex Ryan's choice under center for the time being. Tebow, however, figures to play a regular role in the Jets' offence.
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AccuScore's baseline simulation projects Mark Sanchez to start with Tebow contributing in Wildcat packages. For the purposes of comparison, AccuScore put Sanchez as the sole quarterback for the Jets and then replaced him with Tebow to determine which quarterback is the best choice for New York. Sanchez has been maligned (justifiably) by the fan base, and the calls for Tebow will come loud and often if the Jets don't get off to a good start. But is Tebow actually a better option?
|NEW YORK JETS||W||L||WIN%||PLAYOFF%||WIN DIV%|
|w/ Mark Sanchez||8.1||7.9||50.6%||30.8%||9.0%|
|w/ Tim Tebow||7.3||8.7||45.6%||17.1%||3.9%|
The incumbent starter, Sanchez, comes out on top due to better and more consistent passing numbers. New York is essentially a .500 team with Sanchez taking snaps with about a 31 percent chance at the postseason. Tebow may produce electric moments on the field, but his inconsistencies as a passer just do not lend themselves to full-time duty under center. The Jets would drop to a 7.3 win team on average with Tebow, and their playoff percentage would drop almost in half.
|NEW YORK JETS||COMP||ATT||CMP%||PASSYD||PASSTD||INT||RUSHYD||RUSHTD|
The numbers come out in Sanchez's favor. His statistics are pedestrian, with a 55 percent completion rate and a touchdown-to-interception ratio of barely more than one. What Sanchez does, however, is provide the threat of a passing game. Ryan loves to preach about his "ground and pound" philosophy, so starting a quarterback that rushed for nearly 700 yards in 14 games last season would seemingly fall in line with that. However, ground and pound is more difficult to execute if the quarterback cannot accurately throw a forward pass and keep defenses honest. Ultimately, Sanchez remains the Jets' best option, but his place under center is far from secure.
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