NBA Fantasy Rookie Rankings

We're right around the quarterpole of the NBA season and we have a pretty good idea of what the 2014 draft class has to offer. In what was expected to be the best rookie class in over a decade, we have yet to see any first-round rookies climb into the top 120 for per-game fantasy value on the season. Only second-round pick K.J. McDaniels at No. 106 on the season has emerged to have start-worthy value in 10-team leagues to date. McDaniels has actually been No. 64 in the past two weeks and his value is clearly trending up. He’s not the only one with a recent uptick, though. Jabari Parker is just behind him at 72 over the past two weeks while several other rookies are making a bit of noise.

Usually, this Tuesday afternoon column is about usage rates, but we’ll take a break for a week to talk about the rookies and help out the season-long owners a little more. The Use It or Lose It column is probably more helpful to the Daily Fantasy Site (DFS) people and we'll be back with that next week.

The following is a list of all the rookies for fantasy value going forward for nine-category leagues for the 2014-15 season (again, it's fantasy. I'm not saying K.J. McDaniels is a better prospect than Andrew Wiggins). Players who are backups to frequently injured players get a little bonus while huge upside is king because having a start-worthy rookie in the playoffs for fantasy is when you want them the hottest. In other words, I have little interest in a guy who can’t shoot treys, doesn’t bring defense and is not efficient.

You can follow me on Twitter @MikeSGallagher for answers to questions, stats, analysis, comments and Vines for the games.

1. K.J. McDaniels - If you've been on our Player News page, you know all about him. We really don't need to focus on what's happened, so let's move forward. Tony Wroten (knee) is going to make his return to the lineup soon, which could spell trouble for a couple different reasons.

The big one will be how coach Brett Brown breaks down the minutes. It sounds like Wroten could come off the bench, but that might be temporary because the team does not have a backup point guard with Alexey Shved (hip) currently out. If Shved comes back soon, it might push Wroten to the starting shooting guard spot again. McDaniels has actually been playing a heck of a lot of shooting guard since Wroten has been out for the past 1.5 weeks. Still, it’s not like Hollis Thompson, Luc Mbah a Moute. If you’re a McDaniels owner, you’re going to want Wroten to thrive in the backup point guard role. If he does, that might take minutes away from Shved instead of K.J.

The other big thing is usage rate. Among players with 20 minutes per game, Wroten is in the top 10 for usage rate and he even held it steady since the return of Michael Carter-Williams. McDaniels only has a usage of 10.3 when he’s on the floor with MCW and Wroten. In his last five with Wroten out, his usage is up to 19.4, which is pretty solid for a 3-D guy.

All that said, you’re not adding him for scoring. It’s all about defense and his rebound rate. He has a superb offensive rebound rate of 10.1 in his last five, which would put him in the top 20 for any position had he done it all year (he won’t keep that up). Obviously, the 2.4 blocks and 1.6 steals over his last five are the reason he's No. 1.

He’s shooting horribly and he hasn’t even scratched the surface on offense. If he can keep 24 minutes per game going, he’ll flirt with top-50 value. Again, Wroten's return is huge, but I'm betting on K.J.

2. Jabari Parker - The Bucks are finally starting to unleash Jabari. He’s played 37 or more minutes in two of his last four games. Parker’s usage rate hasn’t really gone up in that span and didn’t top 21 in any of those four, but that’s OK.

He’s shooting the ball extremely well in his four-game hot streak, making 64.3 percent from the field for averages of 14.8 points, 5.0 boards, 2.3 assists and 1.5 steals. On the downside, he didn’t have any treys or blocks while turning the ball over 3.0 times per game.

To stick with the four-game stretch, his shot selection was awesome in that span. He attemped 22 of his 42 shots (52.4 percent) in the restricted area and made 20 of those (90.9 percent). He’s had his buckets come off an assist 55.6 percent of the time (interestingly only 1.3 dimes per game from Brandon Knight), so he's moving very well without the ball.

Parker is really going to need to up his blocks and his free throw shooting, but there is still hope — especially free throw shooting. His ceiling is probably around top 65.

3. Nerlens Noel - Just like Jabari, his minutes are on the rise. Noel did have a hip injury keep him out on Dec. 1, but he played 34.6 minutes per game in his last seven. He averaged 10.4 points, 7.4 boards, 1.3 assists, 1.9 steals and 1.1 blocks on 53.6 percent from the field in that span, too. His shooting in that span is actually no fluke either. Here’s his shot chart:

Noel can’t shoot worth a lick, so staying closer to the basket will go a long way. In fact, he’s shot just 18.2 percent of his jumpers on the season, so expect this hot shooting streak to cool off. Teams are just going force him to take jumpers. Noel does have 30 percent of his shots coming off one-dribble drives, so that’ll like dip. He is an awful foul shooter and I don’t think he’ll be much higher than 46 percent from the field. Basically, he’ll be a lot like Josh Smith, so he’s not going to be a great standard league guy.

4. Andrew Wiggins - He’s been awful and isn’t even in the top 300 for fantasy value on the season. He’s turning the ball over too much, has a field goal percentage of just 38.8 and a free throw percentage of 67.1.

His minutes are on the rise, but it hasn’t resulted in any positives because he just can’t make shots. He is doing too much dribbling and that's been a tough adjustment for him:

The more he dribbles, the worse he is. The problem is that he does not really have help and 43.7 percent of his buckets have come without an assist. That is way too low for a rookie. Wiggins does have a big chance in front of him and he’ll likely get better. His ceiling is much higher than 85 and he really needs to work on his treys.

5. Marcus Smart -Honestly, the timing of this article had a lot to do with Smart last night. I have him in the publicized 30-team league and was really rooting for him against the Wizards on Monday. Smart scored a career-high 23 points with four rebounds, five assists, two steals and four 3-pointers. He didn’t turn the ball over in 35 minutes and this game was obviously his best outing.

Coach Brad Stevens benched his starters and called it a no-brainer, to go with his bench but it wasn’t a knock on their starters and more about the bench being hot. Before Smart’s ankle injury, he was starting to come around and looked like he would get minutes in the low 20s. That’s probably where he’ll be for the foreseeable future.

Smart is very unlikely to be worth owning now and most of his value lies with Rajon Rondo either being traded or needing to miss time. There is nice upside for his steals and he’s taking a lot of treys, too.

6. Nikola Mirotic - He was fantastic without Taj Gibson. Mirotic was blocking shots, hitting treys and shooting the ball well as a terrific fantasy asset.

Of course, Taj came back and crushed his value. The big man from Montenegro played just eight minutes on Saturday and he’ll likely be around that time for now. Although, Joakim Noah is out now, so Miro should be a nice pickup. If you need help now, I love him in even a 10-team league. He might be the most valuable rookie for as long as Noah is out -- shouldn't be that long, though.

7. Zach LaVine - He is starting to come around and he’ll have more short-term value than everyone except for Mirotic, Parker and McDaniels. In his last three games, LaVine averaged 16.0 points, 4.3 boards, 7.3 assists, 1.7 steals and 1.0 triples on 41.9 percent from the field. Not bad.

While LaVine could flirt with some nice value in the next couple weeks, he’s going to fall off once Ricky Rubio comes back.

8. Bojan Bogdanovic - The Nets are 8-11 and there are some reports popping up today that they’re going to be sellers. They really whiffed on their trade with the Celtics and are going to be short on assets for the next few seasons.

If the team is going to deal Joe Johnson or Deron Williams, it should open up a ton of shots for guys like Bojan. He has been awful lately and hasn’t had a single game with a usage rate above 20 — he’s at 15.3 on the season. Expect him to be better.

9. Damjan Rudez - He is making a charge here and is outplaying Chris Copeland. Rudez might be the best shooter on the team, which is something the Pacers will need because their offense needs spacing. David West likes to operate in the post while Rodney Stuckey likes to drive. He should creep to the 1.5 trey per game neighboorhood.

10. Kostas Papanikolaou - He is hurt right now with a Grade 1 sprain of his knee, so it’s hard to get too excited about him.

11. Jusuf Nurkic - With JaVale McGee already on thin ice, a trade of Timofey Mozgov could really open up some things for Nurkic. Of course, he has almost no value right now.

12. Nik Stauskas - Ben McLemore has really stepped up as one of the most improved players this season. Although, the new Pizza Guy has cooled off in his last two games while Stauskas came on strong with 15 points on Monday thanks to garbage time. If he does it a couple more times, he’ll be a quick riser. We can’t overreact to one game, though.

13. T.J. Warren - He was a star of summer league with a very high usage and it’s been smooth sailing so far in his brief time with the team. Warren has 0.5 steals and 0.5 triples in just 10.5 minutes per game, so that bodes well for his upside. If Marcus Morris, Gerald Green or P.J. Tucker get hurt, Warren will be worth watching in 16-team leagues.

14. Rodney Hood - Alec Burks is back, but Hood had some bright spots. He's probably earned minutes in the teens.

15. James Ennis - The bad news is that the Heat are really just playing him at small forward with just a handful of exceptions. That means he is going to need Luol Deng to miss time in order to get significant minutes.

16. Jordan Clarkson - The Lakers are basically done already, so they are going to play their young guys soon. Jeremy Lin is not the answer and Ronnie Price is Ronnie Price. Clarkson is a ball-dominant, high-usage guy, so there is upside. Plus, the steals and treys could be there.

17. Shabazz Napier - He is going to need both Norris Cole and Mario Chalmers to suffer injuries/be traded in order to have value in standard leagues.

18. Gary Harris - Even with Randy Foye and Nate Robinson down, Harris hasn’t had a big impact. He’ll need Foye , Nate and Arron Afflalo to miss time to get on the map.

19. Dante Exum - He’s basically the same as Elfrid Payton, but to a lesser degree. Exum is shooting just 36.4 percent from the field and 59.1 percent from the line. Exum is making some treys and his per-36 isn’t too bad, but he’ll need Trey Burke to miss time.

20. Cleanthony Early - He should be back soon and maybe the Knicks play him because they’re probably tanking.

21. Tarik Black - He is at the apex of his value right now, so he has top-10 short-term value. If you need a big right now, he should be top 200 for the next two weeks.

22. Glenn Robinson III - If the Wolves deal Brewer, GR3 may have more starts this season than RG3. OK, maybe not. I just wanted to make a joke. He could get in the rotation, though.

23. Cameron Bairstow - He has made a start and will probably make another one for the Bulls.

24. Joe Harris - If Dion Waiters gets traded, Harris could be a factor. Although, he’s not going to get shots because of the Cleveland trio.

25. Jerami Grant - Hey, maybe the Sixers give him some run, right?

26. Mitch McGary - Kendrick Perkins will need to miss time for McGary to get in the rotation. Although, OKC had the No. 1 and 2 players in usage last season, so there won’t be much of a chance for McGary to score. Plus, he’s not a great shot blocker.

27. Kyle Anderson - When the Spurs start benching guys, Slow Mo might get on the map.

28. Shayne Whittington - The Pacers just can’t stay healthy and Lavoy Allen is now the backup center.

29. P.J. Hairston - He had his chance and didn’t do much with it.

30. Cory Jefferson - Mr. Irrelevant is already getting some playing time and he could get more with another injury. Brook Lopez is hurt, Mirza Teletovic has a hip pointer, and the Nets are old.

31. Jarnell Stokes - I’d be a little more excited about him if the Grizzlies played him at center, but he’s been more of a power forward this season. Marc Gasol seems like he’s going to get hurt and his knee pain from last week really scared me.

32. Spencer Dinwiddie - The Pistons are a total mess and coach Stan Van Gundy might tear this team apart. Dinwiddie was his first draft pick.

33. Elfrid Payton - It looked like he was going to be able to get to the rim, but he really can’t score at just 38.1 percent from the field. Payton is also just at 46.8 percent from the line.

I got a chance to check him out live last Sunday against the Suns and the amount of spin on the ball for his jumpers is mind boggling. He’s going to need a ton of work and is really just a two-category guy with steals and dimes. Plus, his turnovers are way too high at 2.3 in 24.7 minutes per game. There’s really no way he can be a top-150 guy. His value is toxic and the negatives outweigh the positives.

34. JaKarr Sampson - He played mostly PF in college, but he is currently the backup point guard. Not kidding.

35. Nick Johnson - He should get minutes right now, especially if James Harden is out. If you need help how, he’s a top-15 guy.

36. Jordan Adams - The Grizzlies are too good to play a rookie on the wing.

37. Joe Ingles - He was great for a little while because Rodney Hood was down, but Ingles has cooled since.

38. Aaron Gordon - He is recovering from a fifth metatarsal break and should be back in a couple months.

39. Travis Wear - Derek Fisher has thought about starting him. That’s how bad the Knicks are.

40. Bruno Caboclo - Masai’s project is a couple years away.

41. Dwight Powell - The Celtics might mix things up. He's No. 2 in usage rate!

42. Doug McDermott - Coach Tom Thibodeau just doesn’t trust him and he has a knee injury.

43. Clint Capela - HE LEADS THE NBA IN USAGE RATE. He’s only played in 12 minutes, though. Still, 44.1 is pretty good. Capela also has upside in a couple seasons.

44. Joel Embiid - I really, really don’t think Embiid plays, but I’m interested in his upside on the 1.3 percent chance he plays.

45. Markel Brown - Maybe the Nets play him after they deal some guys. He can score.

46. Thanasis Antetokounmpo - Knicks tank!

47. Noah Vonleh - The Hornets might have to make some moves.

48. Tyler Ennis - Even with the Pizza Guy not making deliveries, Ennis has been inactive.

49. Adreian Payne - He would need multiple injuries, but there is upside.

50. Devyn Marble - The Magic aren't really going to play him much.