The NBA Draft: Boom or Bust

With the 2015 NBA draft quickly approaching, I thought it would be fun to take a look at the success rate of past draft classes during their rookie seasons. I wanted to see how often the No. 1 overall selection puts in a noteworthy season, how often the No. 2 overall pick was a bust, and how far someone could fall on draft day and still put in a statistically meaningful rookie campaign.

I went as far back as the 2003 draft class, and I found that over the past 12 years, the No. 1 overall selection has put together a quality fantasy season 7* out of 12 times
*technically the number is 8, but Blake Griffin missed his entire rookie campaign, so for fantasy owners that year, he was a bust.

The curse of the second overall pick is true over half the time, 7 out of the past 12 No. 2 overall selections could be defined as busts.

The third overall selection has had a meaningful fantasy season 5 times over the past 12 years.

Only twice has a player outside of the top-10 put up a relevant fantasy season, and those two players go by the names of: Josh Smith and Klay Thompson.

While second-round picks can certainly establish themselves later in their careers, there has never been a second-rounder who put up a statistically significant season during their first year in the league.

Before we delve into the data, I want to define the term “bust.” When I’m using the word bust in this article, it doesn’t necessarily denote that this selection was a bust on the long-term, just that during their rookie year they either didn’t play due to injury or their numbers that specific year weren’t anything special. In order to earn the bust moniker, said player needed to be a top-3 overall selection.

This article is written from a fantasy perspective, so in using the term “success,” I’m looking at whether these numbers would have been useful to owners in standard fantasy leagues.

For a player to have been “successful” they needed to have met the following criteria:

Point Guards: 15+ points, 5+ assists, 1+ steals/three-pointers

Shooting Guards: 15+ points, 1.5+ steals/three-pointers

Small Forwards: 20+ points, 5+ rebounds, 1+ steals/three-pointers

Big Men: 10+ points, 8+ rebounds, 1.5+ blocks/steals

*If a player has an unusually high output in a statistically rare category (blocks, steals, assists) then they can fall slightly under one of these criteria and still be deemed successful

The Fabled 2003 Draft Class

Notable Second-Rounders: Zaza Pachulia(42, ORL), Kyle Korver (51, NJN)

Performers:

LeBron James: 20.9 points, 5.5 rebounds, 5.9 assists, 1.6 steals, 0.7 blocks, 3.5 turnovers (41.7 FG, 75.4 FT)
79 games played

Carmelo Anthony: 21.0 points, 6.1 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 1.2 steals, 0.5 blocks, 3.0 turnovers (42.6 FG, 77.7 FT)
82 games played

Chris Bosh: 11.5 points, 7.4 rebounds, 1.4 blocks, 1.4 turnovers (45.9 FG, 70.1 FT)
75 games played

Dwyane Wade: 16.2 points, 4.0 rebounds, 4.5 assists, 1.4 steals, 0.6 blocks 3.2 turnovers (46.5 FG, 74.7 FT)
61 games played

BUSTED:

Darko Milicic: 1.4 points, 1.3 rebounds, 0.4 blocks (26.2 FG, 58.3 FT)
34 games played

2004 Draft Class

Notable Second-Rounders: Anderson Varejao (30, CLE), Trevor Ariza (43, NYK)

Performers:

Dwight Howard: 12.0 points, 10.0 rebounds, 1.7 blocks, 2.0 turnovers (52.0 FG, 67.1 FT)
82 games played

Emeka Okafor: 15.3 points, 11.0 rebounds, 1.7 blocks, 0.9 steals, 1.7 turnovers (44.7 FG, 60.9 FT)
73 games played

Ben Gordon: 15.1 points, 2.0 assists, 1.6 three-pointers, 2.3 turnovers (41.1 FG, 86.3 FT)
82 games played

Specialists:

Andre Iguodala: 9.0 points, 5.7 rebounds, 3.0 assists, 1.7 steals, 0.6 blocks, 1.7 turnovers (49.3 FG, 74.3 FT)
82 games played

Josh Smith: 9.7 points, 6.2 rebounds, 1.9 blocks, 1.8 turnovers (45.5 FG, 68.8 FT)
74 games played

2005 Draft Class

Notable Second-Rounders: C.J. Miles (34, UTA), Ersan Ilyasova (36, MIL), Monta Ellis (40, GSW), Marcin Gortat (57, PHO)

Performers:

Chris Paul: 16.1 points, 7.8 assists, 5.1 rebounds, 2.2 steals, 2.3 turnovers (43.0 FG, 84.7 FT)
78 games played

BUSTED:

Andrew Bogut: 9.4 points, 7.0 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 0.8 blocks, (53.3 FG, 62.9 FT)
82 games played

Marvin Williams: 8.5 points, 4.8 rebounds, 1.1 turnovers (44.3 FG, 74.7 FT)
79 games played

2006 Draft Class

Notable Second-Rounders: Paul Millsap (47, UTA)

Performers:

Brandon Roy: 17.1 points, 4.1 assists, 1.2 steals, 2.1 turnovers (45.6 FG, 83.8 FT)
57 games

BUSTED:

Andrea Bargnani: 11.6 points, 3.9 rebounds, 0.8 blocks, 1.5 three-pointers (42.7 FG, 82.4 FT)
65 games

LaMarcus Aldridge: 9.0 points, 5.0 rebounds, 1.2 blocks (50.3 FG, 72.2 FT)
63 games played

Aldridge’s numbers suffered his rookie year because he was stuck playing behind Zach Randolph

2007 NBA Draft

Notable Second-Rounders: Marc Gasol (48, LAL), Ramon Sessions (56, MIL), Carl Landry (31, SEA), Glen Davis (35, SEA)

Performers:

Kevin Durant: 20.3 points, 4.4 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 1.0 steal, 0.9 blocks, 2.9 turnovers (43.0 FG, 87.3 FT)
80 games played

Al Horford: 10.1 points, 9.7 rebounds, 0.9 blocks, 0.7 steals, 1.7 Turnovers (49.9 FG, 73.1 FT)
81 games played

Specialist:

Rudy Fernandez: 10.4 points, 2.0 three-pointers, 0.9 steals, 1.1 Turnovers (42.5 FG, 83.9 FT)
78 games played

BUSTED:

Greg Oden: 8.9 points, 7.0 rebounds, 1.1 blocks (56.4 FG, 63.7 FT)
61 games played

2008 NBA Draft

Notables: Nikola Pekovic (31, MIN), Mario Chalmers (34, MIN), DeAndre Jordan (35, LAC), Goran Dragic (45, SA), Omer Asik (36, POR)

Performers:

Derrick Rose: 16.8 points, 6.3 assists, 0.8 steals, 2.5 turnovers (47.3 FG, 78.8 FT)
81 games played

O.J. Mayo: 18.5 points, 3.2 assists, 3.8 rebounds, 1.1 steals, 1.8 3-pointers, 2.8 Turnovers (43.8 FG, 87.9 FT)
82 games played

Russell Westbrook: 15.3 points, 5.3 assists, 4.9 rebounds, 1.3 steals, 3.3 turnovers (39.8 FGs, 81.5 FTs)
82 games played

Kevin Love: 11.1 points, 9.1 rebounds, 0.0 three-pointers (45.9 FG, 78.9 FT)
81 games played
(Love’s rookie year could have been better, but he was stuck playing behind Al Jefferson for much of the season)

Eric Gordon: 16.1 points, 2.8 assists, 1.0 steal, 1.7 three-pointers (38.9 FG, 85.4 FT)
78 games played

Brook Lopez: 13.0 points, 8.1 rebounds, 1.8 blocks, 1.8 turnovers (53.1 FG, 81.7 FT)
82 games played

2009 NBA Draft

Notable Second-Rounders: Jodie Meeks (41, MIL), Patrick Beverley (42, LAL), Danny Green (46, CLE), Patty Mills (55, POR)

Performers:

Blake Griffin* (injured actual rookie year): 22.5 points, 12.1 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 0.5 blocks, 0.8 steals, 2.7 turnovers (50.6 FG, 64.2 FT)
82 games played (the following season)

Tyreke Evans: 20.1 points, 5.8 assists, 5.3 rebounds, 1.5 steals, 0.5 three-pointers, 3.0 turnovers (45.8 FG, 74.8 FT)
72 games played
This was actually the best statistical season of Tyreke’s career thus far.

Stephen Curry: 17.5 points, 4.5 rebounds, 5.9 assists, 1.9 steals 2.1 three-pointers (46.2 FG, 88.5 FT)
77 games played

Brandon Jennings: 15.5 points, 5.7 assists, 1.3 steals, 1.8 three-pointers (37.1 FG, 81.7 FT)
82 games played

Ricky Rubio: 10.6 points, 8.2 assists, 2.2 steals, 3.2 TOs (35.7 FG, 80.3 FT)
41 games played

BUSTED:
Hasheem Thabeet: 3.1 points, 3.6 rebounds, 1.3 blocks (58.8 FG, 58.1 FT)
68 games played

James Harden: 9.9 points, 3.2 rebounds, 1.8 assists, 1.1 steals, 1.2 three-pointers (40.3 FG, 80.8 FT)
76 games played
It feels so strange to delve out the bust term to Chef Harden, but these numbers really wouldn’t have helped a team in standard leagues.

2010 NBA Draft

Notable Second-Rounders: Hassan Whiteside (33, SAC), Lance Stephenson (40, IND)

Performers:

John Wall: 16.4 points, 8.3 assists, 1.8 steals, 0.5 blocks, 3.8 turnovers (40.9 FG, 76.6 FT)
69 games played

DeMarcus Cousins: 14.1 points, 8.6 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 1.0 steal, 0.8 blocks, 3.3 TOs, 43.0 FGs, 68.7 FTs 81 GP lockout year

BUSTED:
Evan Tuner: 7.2 points, 2.0 assists, 3.9 rebounds (42.5 FG, 80.8 FT)
78 games played

Derrick Favors: 6.8 points, 5.3 rebounds, 0.9 blocks (51.7 FG, 59.5 FT)
78 games played

2011 NBA Draft

Notable Second-Rounders: Bogdan Bogdanovic (31, MIA), Chandler Parsons (38, HOU)

Performers:

Kyrie Irving: 18.5 points, 5.4 assists, 1.1 steals, 1.4 three-pointers, 3.1 turnovers (46.9 FG, 87.2 FT)
51 games played (lockout year)

Brandon Knight: 12.8 points, 3.8 assists, 1.6 three-pointers (41.5 FG, 75.9 FT)
66 games played (lockout year)

Klay Thompson: 12.5 points, 2.0 assists, 1.7 three-pointers (44.3 FG, 86.8 FT)
66 games played (lockout year)

Specialists:

Iman Shumpert: 9.5 points, 2.8 assists, 3.2 rebounds, 1.7 steals (40.1 FG, 79.8 FT)
59 games played (lockout year)

BUSTED:

Derrick Williams: 8.8 points, 4.7 rebounds, 1.2 TOs (41.2 FG, 69.7 FT)
66 games played (lockout year)

2012 NBA Draft

Notable Second-Rounders: Draymond Green (35, GSW), Jae Crowder (34, CLE), Khris Middleton (39, DET)

Performers:

Anthony Davis: 13.5 points, 8.2 rebounds, 1.2 steals, 1.8 blocks, 1.4 TOs (51.6 FG, 75.1 FT)
64 games played

Bradley Beal: 13.9 points, 3.8 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 1.6 three-pointers (41.0 FG, 78.6 FT)
56 games played

Dion Waiters: 14.7 points, 3.0 assists, 1.0 steal, 1.0 three-pointer (41.2 FG, 74.6 FT)
61 games played

Damian Lillard: 19.0 points, 6.5 assists, 2.3 three-pointers, 0.9 steals, 3.0 turnovers (42.0 FG, 84.4 FT)
82 games played

Specialists:

Andre Drummond: 7.9 points, 7.6 rebounds, 1.6 blocks (60.8 FG, 37.1 FT)
60 games played

2013 NBA Draft

Performer:

Victor Oladipo: 13.8 points, 4.1 assists, 4.1 rebounds, 1.6 steals, 3.2 TOs (41.9 FG, 78.0 FT)
80 games played

Michael Carter-Williams: 16.7 points, 6.2 rebounds, 6.3 assists, 1.9 steals (40.5 FG, 70.3 FT)
70 games played

BUSTED:

Anthony Bennett: 4.2 points, 3.0 rebounds (35.6 FG, 63.8 FT)

52 games played

Otto Porter: 2.1 points, 1.5 rebounds (36.3 FG, 66.7 FT)

Delayed:

Nerlens Noel didn't play his actual rookie season, but he did have a nice run once he was able to actually get into game-time action averaging: 9.9 points, 8.1 rebounds, 1.8 steals, 1.9 blocks (46.2 FG, 60.9 FT)

75 games played

2014 NBA Draft

Notable Second-Rounders: K.J. McDaniels (32, PHI)

Performers:

Andrew Wiggins: 16.9 points, 4.6 rebounds, 2.1 assists, 1.0 steal, 0.6 blocks, 2.2 TOs

(43.7 FG, 76.0 FT)
82 games played

Elfrid Payton: 8.9 points, 4.3 rebounds, 6.5 assists, 1.7 steals, 2.5 TOs (42.5 FG, 55.1 FT)
82 games played

Incomplete:

Jabari Parker: 12.3 points, 5.5 rebounds, 1.2 steals, 1.9 TOs (49.0 FG, 69.7 FT)
25 games played

I don’t want to give Parker the bust label, because he was starting to get things going before he went down. With just 25 games, he earns an incomplete grade for his rookie season.

Joel Embiid also gets an incomplete grade as he did not play his entire rookie season. However, he was being touted as a potential No. 1 overall selection on draft day before his injury, so he'll have a lot of upside heading into next season.

So, what can we learn with all this data?

1. In general, rookies will struggle with their shooting percentage as well as turnovers

2. Big men are generally slow starters

3. While there’s value to be had throughout the draft, it’s unlikely someone selected outside the top-10 will be an impact player his rookie year

The value of players, whether they can be truly considered a bust or not from a fantasy perspective, is really based on where their ADP is on draft day. If you’re having to use a mid-round pick on a rookie, you’re increasing your chances of being disappointed. However, using a late-round flier on a rookie could pay dividends.

Fantasy basketball is all about taking calculated risks. In this year’s draft we have two point guards and two big men at the top of the draft board. Analysts are saying that Jahlil Okafor is more NBA ready, but Karl-Anthony Towns has the most upside. I’d say the player that is selected No. 1 overall has the better odds of putting up a successful rookie season, but considering both are big men, there is some risk here as bigs generally take longer to develop. I think the guards (D’Angelo Russell and Emmanuel Mudiay) have a better chance of performing their rookie season, and I’ll give the edge to Russell, as the mystery-man international player sometimes doesn’t pan out the first year i.e. Dante Exum.