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Mostly NFL Notes: A 2016 NFC Season Preview

David Johnson wins OPOY and other predictions in this 2016 NFC season preview (Getty Images)
David Johnson wins Offensive Player of the Year and other predictions in this 2016 NFC season preview (Getty Images)

NFC East

  1. Dallas Cowboys 9-7

  2. New York Giants 9-7 (Wild Card)

  3. Washington Redskins 6-10

  4. Philadelphia Eagles 5-11

Comments/Fantasy predictions: I had Dallas winning the division comfortably before Tony Romo went down, but now who knows, as Dak Prescott is a major wild card. There’s a case to be made Prescott’s big preseason will carry over into regular season success, but I’ve downgraded Dez Bryant a decent amount. According to DVOA, Dallas had the worst passing offense (-24.0%) in the NFL last season, and the Cowboys have won just once over their last 14 games without Romo. At least the team’s rookie backfield seem to be in syncEzekiel Elliott finishes as the No. 2 fantasy back and wins Rookie of the Year unanimously.

The Giants’ defense should be much improved, and maybe one of these years they won’t be the most injured team in the league…Those who took Julio Jones over Odell Beckham regret the decision mightily…Kirk Cousins finishes as a top-10 fantasy QB, while Jordan Reed is as good as Rob Gronkowski on a per-game basis, but he misses a few contests with an injury…Zach Ertz had the most yards over the final four games of a season (450) by a tight end last year in NFL history. The 6-5, 250 TE has seen a total of 11 targets inside the 10-yard line over the past three seasons. Gary Barnidge saw more last year alone.

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Headlines of the Week: Man Rescued After Climbing Into Public ToiletIndia Cows Get Glow-In-The-Dark Horns To Stop CrashesPensioner Suddenly Learns To Play The Piano After Suffering From A StrokeDog Who Went To Rehab For Meth Helps AddictsChickens Fly Off Truck, Land At KFC, Captured On Film By Vegan.

NFC North

  1. Green Bay Packers 13-3

  2. Detroit Lions 8-8

  3. Minnesota Vikings 8-8

  4. Chicago Bears 5-11

Comments/Fantasy predictions: The Packers had to deal with a bunch of injuries, fluky late losses and Davante Adams last season, but expect them to return to being one of the best teams in football in 2016. Having one of the greatest quarterbacks ever helps…Eddie Lacy, Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb combine for 35 touchdowns, while Aaron Rodgers wins MVP…Matthew Stafford, who had a 19:2 TD:INT ratio over the second half of last season, goes down as one of the better bargains among fantasy QBs, while Marvin Jones ends the year as a top-20 wide receiver, ahead of teammate Golden Tate.

Terrible news regarding Teddy Bridgewater, and while it obviously doesn’t help Minnesota, I didn’t adjust my already tepid outlook for the teamJerick McKinnon goes down as a major difference maker over the final month of the season, helping win fantasy titles for those who stash him…The Bears defense struggles mightily, while their offense feels the loss of Adam Gase, as Kevin White ends up being dropped in most fantasy leagues…Alshon Jeffery could be a monster in a full and healthy season (no longer playing alongside Brandon Marshall, Jeffery was targeted on an NFL-high 34 percent of his routes last year), but injuries once again bite him (and his owners).

Police Blotter: Man Tries To Burn Gas Station After He’s Caught Stealing Flamin’ Hot CheetosNun Has No Cash, So Robber Takes RosaryMan Contacts Police Over Other People Using His DrugsAmish Man Charged With Driving Buggy Drunk With Friends On RoofNaked Man With Gun Robs Store Of Reese’s Peanut Butter Cups.

NFC South

  1. Carolina Panthers 11-5

  2. New Orleans Saints 7-9

  3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7-9

  4. Atlanta Falcons 7-9

Comments/Fantasy predictions: Carolina can (and will) regress quite a bit this season and still comfortably win this division (for the fourth straight year)…Over the last six seasons, Jonathan Stewart has 16 rushing touchdowns (and six 100-yard rushing games)…Kelvin Benjamin fails to live up to his ADP, while Devin Funchess more than earns a profit.

The Saints allowed a 116.2 QB Rating to opposing passers last season. The year in which Peyton Manning threw 55 touchdowns his QB Rating was 115.1. New Orleans gave up an NFL-high 4.9 YPC as well…Drew Brees is 37 years old and got just 7.0 YPA with a 9:6 TD:INT ratio on the road last season. He faces the Broncos, Seahawks and Panthers at home in 2016…Mark Ingram’s 29 carries inside the five-yard line over the past two seasons are the second most in the NFL, and that’s with him missing seven games. Now heavily involved as a receiver, only health can prevent him from finishing as a top-five fantasy back.

No 21-year-old quarterback had ever thrown for 2,500 yards before Jameis Winston threw for more than 4,000 last season. He gets to face the aforementioned New Orleans defense twice during the fantasy playoffs (Weeks 14 and 16)…Charles Sims is a major difference maker down the stretch, while Mike Evans bounces back and scores a dozen touchdowns…The Falcons became the first team to start 5-0 and not make the playoffs last season…Devonta Freeman was the No. 1 fantasy back (despite missing a game) last season, is 24 years old and now has Alex Mack joining an already strong offensive line, yet his ADP is the RB7. Tevin Coleman may very well be looking at more work, but Freeman is the passing down back (his 97 targets were the third most among RBs last season) and the far superior inside runner.

Be sure to check out my AFC preview if you missed it.

Song of the Week: Bon Iver – 33 “God”

Longread of the Week: Will Somebody Please Give Norm Macdonald Another TV Show?

NFC West

  1. Seattle Seahawks 12-4

  2. Arizona Cardinals 12-4 (Wild Card)

  3. Los Angeles Rams 5-11

  4. San Francisco 49ers 3-13

Comments/Fantasy predictions: Like Devonta Freeman, fantasy owners don’t seem to be buying last year’s big season by Doug Baldwin, whose ADP is the WR22 despite recording 724 yards and 12 touchdowns over the final eight games. He records a 80-1200-10 line in 2016 and goes down as the best bargain among all wide receivers…Thomas Rawls is similarly undervalued (RB14) in fantasy drafts and proves to be a huge profit for those who grabbed him in the third/fourth round…Russell Wilson finishes runner-up in the MVP race.

The Cardinals have the talent to win the Super Bowl, and their schedule could easily lead to the No. 1 seed in the conference, but they’ll need Carson Palmer to stay healthy and stop his recent tendency to turn the ball over…Michael Floyd emerges as the clear No. 1 wideout in Arizona…David Johnson averaged more yards per catch (12.7) last year than Demaryius Thomas (12.4). DJ surpasses 2,000 yards from scrimmage and wins AP Offensive Player of the Year.

Todd Gurley somehow had the second most runs of 20+ yards (12) and the most of 40+ (five) in the NFL over 13 games as a rookie despite coming off major knee surgery while in a terrible offense. He’s a special talent who should be able to overcome his environment, but Jared Goff appears far away from being any sort of upgrade at quarterback…Tavon Austin got 5.4 yards-per-target last season. The only WR worse was Davante Adams with 5.1 (minimum 75 targets).

It’s possible Chip Kelly really is a genius (last year Sam Bradford got 7.0 YPA for the first time in his career despite the Eagles tying for the second-most dropped passes in the NFL (h/t Scott Kacsmar)), but he’s facing an uphill battle with this roster…Carlos Hyde continues to impress on the field, but his punishing style leads to more injuries, and the 49ers’ inept offense limits his touchdowns, resulting in him not finishing as a top-15 fantasy back…GM Trent Baalke is fired, as Jed York completes one of the worst two year stretches in NFL ownership history…Colin Kaepernick unites America.

MVP: Aaron Rodgers

Rookie of the Year: Ezekiel Elliott

Offensive Player of the Year: David Johnson

Defensive Player of the Year: Khalil Mack

AFC Championship: Patriots over Steelers

NFC Championship: Seahawks over Packers

Super Bowl: Patriots over Seahawks

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