Monday Morning Manager - WK4
It took all of 16 minutes into the week’s first match for Week 4 to become “a red card week” and it just never let up much to the detriment of our entertainment. There is only so much that you can say about red cards so I’ll move on to some other big storylines as well in the introduction but first, a few comments on those red cards:
Arsenal actually looked better BEFORE Aleksandar Mitrovic got sent off than they did after. Newcastle started off the match trying to go toe-to-toe with the Gunners which gave Arsenal some strong counter-attacking chances. Once Mitrovic went off, the Magpies parked the bus (as they should have) and Arsenal struggled to break through. In case you’re wondering, only people with the initials OG (that’s Own Goal and Olivier Giroud) have scored for Arsenal thus far this campaign with Own Goal doubling Giroud’s total for the season so far.
On the topic of Steven Whittaker’s first yellow card, esteemed colleague Rebecca Lowe opined that the referee shouldn’t have awarded the yellow card and had “put himself in a difficult position” adding something to the effect that giving yellow cards for such offenses would sterilize what is supposed to be a contact sport on at least some level. I don’t recall disagreeing with too many of Ms. Lowe’s opinions but I have to call BS on this one. Whittaker clearly and unnecessarily went after his opposite number after a dust-up and the official had no choice but to hand out a yellow. Whittaker put himself and the official in a difficult position by then committing another dumb infraction that required he be sent off. Neither foul was necessary to save a dangerous opportunity from developing nor was either the result of the player just “giving it his all” and going a bit overboard. Alex Neil has a reputation as a disciplinarian and Whittaker’s sending off and the resulting 3-0 thrashing (when the Canaries had been holding their own just fine at St. Mary’s) will upset him particularly because it was just the result of indiscipline.
Speaking of indiscipline, you have to imagine that Bojan can’t return quickly enough for Mark Hughes. With Ibrahim Afellay and Charlie Adam both having been sent off, and in the first half no less, for being petulant the Stoke City managers will hope that he can get back to building his poor man’s version of Barcelona in the Potteries. Instead, he was left reminding everyone in Stoke what they left behind when visiting manager Tony Pulis was shown the door. Hughes’ sides have never shrunken from physical play in the past but this wasn’t physical, it was just stupid.
The one red card of the weekend that really seemed unjustified was the one that Mark Noble received in the Liverpool match. Where Philippe Coutinho’s was more accidental in that he pretty well slipped his way into this second yellow card, Noble’s was just a bad call. He went in for a reasonable tackle, it wasn’t dangerous, and he got the ball. Given that West Ham were well ahead at the time, nothing changed as far as the final result, and the suspension will probably be overturned before the Hammers play their next match there’s no real harm in the wrong call but that’s just good fortune on the part of the referee, not an excuse for a bad call.
Elsewhere, there are a few topics from my Thursday podcast with the excellent @FantasyGaffer on RableTV that are worth following up on:
I suspect things will even out eventually but Pedro seems to be the only bright spot at Chelsea with Cesc Fabregas, Diego Costa and Eden Hazard still struggling mightily for form. Maybe Pedro becomes the new star but more likely all four players settle in and share the fantasy points from week to week.
My excuse for Wayne Rooney’s slump thus far this season during the broadcast was that he just hasn’t had much service. It’s hard for anyone to score goals with no opportunities. Well, he had two very good opportunities on Sunday and he looked hesitant. The template for “fading forward” in my mind is “Fernando Torres at Chelsea” and before Sunday, Rooney hadn’t scuffed chances that were presented to him as Torres did throughout his Chelsea tenure. On Sunday, he had two chances that you would have bet big money on “in-his-prime-Rooney” to score or at the very least sting the hands of the goalkeeper. Instead, he allowed Ashley Williams to catch up to him both times while trying to set up the perfect shot rather than just banging a shot goal-ward with his left foot in stride. Not a good sign.
We discussed the relative merits of Sadio Mane vs. Raheem Sterling for the rest of the season at the request of former Rotoworld/YahooUK/NeverManageAlone pundit Jeremy Spitzberg with Gaffer taking Sterling and me taking Mane. No light between the two choices as both had big weekends with Sterling netting his first City goal and Mane picking up two assists.
I encourage you to listen to the entire podcast here and tune in weekly as @FantasyGaffer continues to bring in guests for up-to-the-minute fantasy analysis.
Check in with Rotoworld.com all summer for transfer analysis and 2015-16 season previews
The Title Race
The Title Race (Ranked from favorites to most likely to miss out on the Champions League)
Manchester City – We’ll resist the urge to say that the title race is over because there are too many good teams that will potentially take points from City and allow Chelsea/Arsenal/United back in the race. What we will say is that City are looking like they’re going to be tough to beat. Four wins. No goals conceded. Two high priced new signings (Otamendi and De Bruyne) not yet making a contribution. Chelsea, United, and Arsenal all looking incredibly flawed. City already owning a win over Chelsea. It looks like a long road to the top for anyone not wearing sky blue.
Chelsea – There was a time when Stamford Bridge was a fortress for Jose Mourinho even when the Blues weren’t playing terribly well. Apparently that time has passed. It was only Mourinho’s second loss in Premier League action at the Bridge as Chelsea manager but the context for that loss is what’s important. If it were a one-off in a sea of solid efforts from the Blues then it wouldn’t really register as a big deal. Instead, it comes on the heels of one win in a first four where you would only expect the Blues to have dropped points at City. The attacking stars of last season look lost with only the newly arrived Pedro clicking. The defense is in tatters. That a team of players generally in their athletic primes (with the exception of Terry and, maybe, Ivanovic) has fallen off so badly is just a mystery.
Arsenal – It was hardly a vintage Arsenal performance, especially playing a man up for much of the match. In the context of Chelsea, United and Liverpool losing and Spurs drawing though, it has to be seen as a solid week for the Gunners. Theo Walcott was given a chance at the central forward role and was unconvincing to say the least. Giroud came in as a substitute and showed at least some signs of life where Walcott showed few. With Per Mertesacker still out and German teammate Mesut Ozil nursing a minor injury, it was a different look for Arsenal but still not particularly satisfying as they continue to search for a line-up that best utilizes their respective talents.
Manchester United – Remember when Memphis Depay was going in the first round or two of fantasy drafts and he was going to be the next big star of world football? Wayne Rooney is an obvious target for United’s woes because, well, he’s a pretty easy target for just about anything. Rooney is certainly not without blame given the two chances that he failed to cash in on. Perhaps a better target for angst would be the Dutch combination of Memphis, who isn’t contributing much of anything outside of bullying lower tier clubs in Champions League qualifying, and Louis Van Gaal who has insisted on sticking with Depay despite the fact that he isn’t ready. Maybe LVG has it right and the only way for Depay to adapt is for him to play through the transition but it seems like a better plan would be to bring him along more slowly and, perhaps, get more from that spot on the pitch. United may only have lost once thus far but their attack has been woeful through four matches with their first two goals, both match winners, reeking of luck rather than skill or incision. The notion that 19-year-old Anthony Marital, he of nine goals and three assists in Ligue 1 last season, is going to make the difference this season seems fanciful. United’s mix of experience – Carrick, Schweinsteiger, Rooney, Young – players in their prime – Mata, De Gea, Herrera, Darmian, Schneiderlin, and Smalling – and youngsters – Memphis, Marital, and Shaw – seems like it should be the right mix of players at various stages of their careers but it just isn’t working.
Oh, and in case you were keeping a LVG notebook related to his transfer dealings, that’s two weeks of Pedro looking great for Chelsea instead of Manchester United and one week where United lost out on at least one point because they had Sergio Romero in net instead of David De Gea. LVG pointed the finger at Ed Woodward this morning and maybe Woodward is a big part of the problem but LVG’s bull-in-a-china-shop approach to player relations is at least somewhat to blame for Pedro not wanting to be at United and David De Gea’s place in the stands while the Real Madrid situation unfolds.
The Second Tier (Ranked from most likely to break into the Champions League to least likely)
Liverpool – Are West Ham going to be our Jekyll and Hyde team of the 2015-16 season? They were very good against Arsenal at the Emirates in Week 1, mediocre-to-poor at home in Weeks 2 and 3 against modest opposition, and then back with a vengeance in Week 4 at Anfield. After watching the Reds against Arsenal last Monday, I was ready to bless Joe Gomez, Roberto Firmino, and Emre Can as regular starters but it was a bit of a bust against the Hammers, wasn’t it? You can excuse Gomez given his age and inexperience at the top level but Dejan Lovern’s poor play certainly makes you wonder if it was the first three weeks that were the mirage rather than the opportunities he got last season. The biggest problem here is that there isn’t a single glaring hole in the roster like you’ll find at some other clubs near the top of the table, it just seems to be a case of not-quite-good-enough in a bunch of spots which is much harder to fix.
Spurs – With Clinton N’Jie and Heung-Min Son not available for participation, Spurs continued to start the season slowly and without much of anything in the attack. Christen Eriksen remained sidelined and Mauricio Pochettino elected to leave Erik Lamela on the bench meaning that Harry Kane, Nacer Chadli and Mousa Dembele were the only three players that you would consider “attack-oriented” that featured for Spurs against the Toffees. Ryan Mason was theoretically the replacement for Eriksen but it didn’t take a rocket scientist to see that Spurs were going to struggle to generate an attack. With only three points and three goals to show for four matches – and only one of those against a presumed top four finisher – Spurs had better hope that Son and N’Jie coming into the squad and Eriksen’s return can boost the attack and free Harry Kane or it’s going to be a long season hanging around mid-table ahead.
Southampton – Dusan Tadic returned to the starting line-up and scored a brace. Sounds like good news, huh? Not really in that the Saints didn’t really get the attack going until after newly-promoted Norwich were down to ten men and had voluntarily shorn themselves of one of their primary creators in Wes Hoolahan rather than taking off the fairly useless Cameron Jerome. Full marks to the Saints for killing off a wounded foe but it hardly screams “everything is going to be alright”. With Virgil Van Dijk potentially arriving and bringing some additional defensive solidity and the hope that Jordy Clasie will be ready to go after the international break, there is at least some hope for the Saints but there is definitely a “mid-table” feel to this group rather than the “pushing the top four” vibe that pervaded for most of last season.
Crystal Palace – Three wins in four matches including a win over Chelsea at Stamford Bridge gets you the early nomination as “this season’s Everton/Reading/Southampton/[Fill-in surprise package mid-table team from the past]”. Leicester City looked like they were going to be the choice there but with one excellent win already on their resume and a solid performance in their lone loss to Arsenal you have to like the developments at Selhurst Park. The other thing that the Eagles have going for them is that they have a clear hole in their roster to fill to take an additional step forward. They could easily improve on Glenn Murray/Connor Wickham/Patrick Bamford as the number nine around which a very talented attacking group revolves. If they can snag a Charlie Austin in the transfer market before Tuesday you have to give them a real chance to compete with Spurs and Southampton even if Liverpool still looks a cut above from a talent point-of-view.
The Relegation Battle (Ranked from most likely to be relegated to least)
Sunderland – They’ve gone from two straight losses to two straight draws so I guess that’s a positive direction. Jeremain Lens continues to look like a great acquisition even if the wins have yet to arrive. Yann M’Vila scored a cracker of a free kick and if he can do what Jack Rodwell couldn’t last season and revive a potentially high upside career after a few years in the wilderness then Sunderland could at least be pointed in the right direction. Still, the newly promoted sides are all looking at least solid which means that “pointed in the right direction” might not be enough”. Perhaps the most disappointing thing for the Black Cats is that their early schedule hasn’t been too difficult and yet they’ve conspired to get very little from two matches against clubs in Norwich and Villa who are likely to be joining them in the relegation fight.
Aston Villa – Well, it was a good week for Scott Sinclair with five goals in two matches. Of course the Sunderland-related-punchline of the joke is that both matches were against lower division opposition and shouldn’t be taken too seriously. If Villa aren’t going to win matches like this one when playing at Villa Park then it’s going to be a rough season.
Newcastle United – Could three teams with the pedigree of Sunderland, Villa and Newcastle really all go down in the same season with all three newly promoted teams staying up? Probably not but that’s certainly how it’s looking so far, isn’t it? Newcastle’s big new forward signing Aleksandar Mitrovic already has a commanding lead in the race for most cards accumulated this season with two yellows and a red. The red card against Arsenal should probably only have been yellow but that’s what you get when you’ve created a reputation for yourself in such a short timeframe. Elsewhere among the new arrivals, Florian Thauvin didn’t look particularly threatening against an Arsenal defense that we know if vulnerable.
Watford – It was always going to be tough facing off with the buzz saw that currently is Manchester City. They were game, if uninspiring, for the first half but couldn’t keep it going after Raheem Sterling opened the scoring about 90 seconds into the second half. That they kept it at 2-0 rather than conceding what looked like it was going to be a flood of second half goals will be good for their goal difference but let’s face it, the Hornets are going to have to get their attack in order quickly if they’re going to survive. It doesn’t get easier with Swansea coming to Vicarage Road after the international break.
Bournemouth – A nice point against on-fire Leicester City to consolidate the good times from the win over West Ham in Week 3. They’re certainly not a sure thing to stay up and they definitely need some goals from someone other than Callum Wilson but at least the Cherries are showing that they’re going to put up a good fight. With news coming in that the Cherries lead the race for Charlie Austin from QPR, things could be very interesting on the South Coast indeed this season.
Norwich City – The score line was ugly and we’ve discussed the foolishness of Steven Whittaker’s sending off but you have to like what we’ve seen from the Canaries when they’ve been even strength this season. I was among the throng of pundits who had them going right back down without much of a fight but there appears to be more to this group than I expected.
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Newcomer of the Year of the Week
Andre Ayew is back atop this particular leader board with a goal and an assist as Swansea beat Manchester United 2-1 for the third consecutive time. It was an impressive performance for the winger who scored from a header and then provided a great assist with the outside of his left foot for Gomis’ winner. Kudos to Bakary Sako for a second excellent week as well in Palace’s win over Chelsea.
Season Leaders: 1) Andre Ayew; 2) Jeremain Lens; 3) Pedro; 4) Bakary Sako; 5) Matteo Darmian
Young Player of the Year of the Week
Jordan Amavi continues to press his claim here with an assist but I’m going to give this one to a player, in Luke Shaw, whose team lost this weekend but who looked like an entirely different player than what we saw last season. If the entire United team were playing with the energy and enthusiasm that Shaw is showing this season then they might be scoring more than occasionally. His ball in for the assist on Mata’s goal was a nice one to boot.
Season Leaders: 1) Nathan Redmond; 2) Callum Wilson; 3) Jordan Amavi; 4) Luke Shaw; 5) Ross Barkley
Player of the Year of the Week
The depth in talent at Manchester City is probably going to be the eventual reason that none of City’s attackers ends up with any legitimate Player of the Season award. We had four City players on this list after last weekend (Toure, Kompany, Kolarov, and Silva) and only Silva was involved in any of the scoring this weekend. Scott Sinclair, Dusan Tadic, Bakary Sako, and Andre Ayew were the statistical leaders for the week but we’re going to give this one to Sako since we gave Ayew his props in the “Newcomer of the Year of the Week” section above. Amazing that the names Sergio Aguero, Eden Hazard and Alexis Sanchez have barely registered in this conversation so far this season.
Season Leaders: 1) Riyad Mahrez; 2) Yaya Toure/Silva; 3) Andre Ayew/Bafetimbi Gomis; 4) Nathan Redmond; 5) Callum Wilson
Manager of the Year of the Week
Alan Pardew and Garry Monk are going to split this week’s honors for big wins over Chelsea and Manchester United respectively. It is especially hard to argue against Monk who appeared to outwit “genius” Louis Van Gaal by changing his formation when he brought in Ki to the point of scoring two goals and getting the three points before the Dutch manager could react.
Season Leaders: 1) Manuel Pellegrini; 2) Claudio Raineri; 3) Alan Pardew; 4) Garry Monk; 5) Eddie Howe
My Week in Expert Leagues
It was a tight one in the IEFSA league against Rotowire contributor and 2012 Fantasy Sports Writers Association Racing Writer of the Year CJ Radune. My attack still hasn’t really gotten going but I got clean sheets from Boaz Myhill, Hector Bellerin, and James Morrison and a reality-confounding excellent performance from Cesc Fabregas with three shots on target. Olivier Giroud was surprisingly good off the bench. Unfortunately, I left Danny Rose’s clean sheet on the bench while Russell Martin and Craig Cathcart floundered at the back. I was fortunte that Charlie Adam’s red card and Ashley Young being on the bench and only marginally effective when he did get a chance counteracted big matches from Hart, Alderweireld, Kompany, Shaw, Barkley and Vardy for CJ. Happy to escape with a win by the skin of my teeth for the second consecutive week.
In the Togga Experts league, I went up against an undefeated team for the second week in a row. Last week I got wiped out, this week I was left to rue the fact that I left Dusan Tadic on the bench where his two goals would have won me a tight match. Instead, I had Glenn Murray not participating and getting me a big goose egg from one spot. I have to say, the days of salary cap leagues where you couldn’t make adjustments after the first match started on Saturday were frustrating but even worse is the world where the rest of life prevents you from using your new-found ability to make changes during the match week. I had Tadic on the bench in two leagues and couldn’t get him in and that cost me both matches. Careful what you wish for I guess.
Players I’m looking at acquiring: It is almost pointless to start writing names in here with the transfer deadline coming tomorrow. There will be players coming into the league from all over, there will be guys we’re familiar with moving teams within England. The obvious names right now are Kevin De Bruyne, Charlie Austin, Victor Moses, and Emmanuel Adebayor but that will surely change as the next 30 hours or so play out.
Players I’m thinking about ditching: See above with Jesus Navas likely heading the list as Kevin De Bruyne likely makes him a full-time bench player. Hard to know the impact of Anthony Martial coming to Manchester United but it will certainly push someone farther down the pecking order with Adnan Januzaj, Ander Herrera, and Ashley Young all likely (although you have to expect Juan Mata to be pretty safe).
Random Closing Thoughts
My Second Club – The running is still open but it’s going to be hard to beat Crystal Palace. With my Philadelphia Eagles looking great in the pre-season (yes, I know it’s only the pre-season) this might just be “the Year of the Eagles” all the way around. Can we get Don Henley and Glenn Fry involved in this somehow? Maybe another reunion tour or some amazing new music just to make it clear that this is going to happen?
This Week’s Good Points: Crystal Palace, Swansea, and West Ham are the run-away winners here with three points apiece. The question is whether we give Swansea “good points” if they beat United for a fourth consecutive time in the second half of the season.
The Good Points Table: West Ham United 6; Swansea City 4; Crystal Palace 3; Everton 3; Norwich City 3; Bournemouth 3; Manchester City 2; Watford 1; Stoke City 1; Newcastle 1; Sunderland 1;
This Week’s Bad Points: Chelsea, Manchester United and Liverpool lead our list of those falling on their faces in Week 4. In case you were wondering, Chelsea only picked up 14 “bad points” all of last season, they’re more than a third of the way there after four weeks this season. Not good times at the Bridge.
The Bad Points Table: Chelsea 5; Manchester United 5; Arsenal 3; Liverpool 3; Southampton 3; Sunderland 3; West Ham 3; Swansea 2; Tottenham 2; Chelsea 2; Everton 2
My Favorite Things – Everything about what Manchester City are doing on and off the pitch…Yann M’Vila’s free kick…Gylfi Sigurdsson getting back in the mix…Jonjo Shelvey and Jamie Vardy with well-deserved call-ups for England (but Ryan Mason? Really?)…Jordan Amavi as an attacker…Dusan Tadic back from the dead (even if some advance warning would have been nice)…Bafetimbi Gomis’ goal celebration (that thing’s getting some serious use, huh?)…the overall impression that, outside of Manchester City, almost every match-up has a bit of a free-for-all feel to it.
My Least Favorite Things – Sergio Romero in net over David De Gea…Manchester United’s chances if De Gea indeed leaves for Real Madrid (which looks highly likely as of this writing)…Chelsea’s attack…Chelsea’s defense…Chelsea’s grit…Arsenal’s attacking fluidity and Theo Walcott’s attempts to use his shin as a goal-scoring implement…the brains of Steven Whittaker, Ibrahim Afellay, and Charlie Adam…overreacting to Aleksandar Mitrovic’s reputation…West Brom’s attacking two men up for nearly sixty mintues…Watford’s attack…Spurs giving away points by waiting until this late to address their dreadful attack…Dejan Lovern as a critical cog at Anfield
What did we find out? The biggest thing that we learned was that Manchester City are already in a commanding position unless you think Crystal Palace is going to sustain a title challenge (SPOILER ALERT: they won’t). We also continued to have reinforced the notion that the middle of the Premier League pack is catching up with the top end. Swansea City didn’t “nick a win” against Manchester United but rather were deserved winners…for the third consecutive time while Palace did the unthinkable and beat Chelsea at the Bridge. West Ham have already shown a little bit of everything this season including wins at Liverpool and Arsenal while losing at home to a newly promoted side. The genius of the Premier League isn’t that it has the best teams in the world (although City look like they should at least be in the discussion albeit after Barca and Real Madrid and probably Bayern Munich too) but that the depth is such that very good teams like Chelsea, Arsenal, Manchester United and Liverpool have been pushed hard for four consecutive weeks by the lower lights of the division.
What’s Next? A break in the action while the transfer window comes to a close and we get a FIFA international break. What a Saturday we get when the break is over! Chelsea start us off as they travel to Goodison Park to see if they can rebound against Everton and their former forward Romelu Lukaku. The mid-day matches are headlined by words that one imagines have never been uttered in the history of English football as “the top two face off with Crystal Palace hostings Manchester City at Selhurst Park”. We’ll see if anyone can derail City on their path to world domination. The day ends with perhaps the best rivalry in England as Manchester United host bitter rivals Liverpool at Old Trafford with the added bonus of both clubs needing a win in a big way coming off of embarrassing defeats to teams that they were expected to beat. Make plans now to spend a big chunk of your Saturday with us on NBC Sports or wherever you are watching the Premier League action.
