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Monday Morning Manager - WK3

Midweek fixtures are always tricky to navigate as managers cut their cloth accordingly with one eye on the upcoming fixtures. Helping you stay on track during the season run-in, Ben Dinnery is back with the latest team news

Sequencing and luck. It counts for WAY more of your perception of teams, managers and players…especially at the beginning of a season. The forward who scores in five consecutive matches creates massive headlines for his goal-scoring streak even if it is followed up by five without a goal. In comparison, the forward who scores one in every other match over that same ten week sequence probably doesn’t create much of a splash at all. They’ve both scored five goals in ten matches but the media and the world at large perceive their value and profile much differently. The same applies to a player who plays a lackluster game overall but scores on a fluke play, say, a deflected shot as opposed to a player who doesn’t score but would have but for the heroics of a defender saving his attempt off the line or a goalkeeper making a spectacular save. This is the time of year when you’re going to start making decisions on trades and adds/drops and you need to look deep into the numbers before reaching any conclusions. What do I mean?

Wayne Rooney – It is really a mark of true narrative genius to criticize the assistant for blowing the call on Rooney’s early dis-allowed goal in one sentence and then moving immediately to discussing his death as a top tier forward because he hasn’t scored. Either the goal should have counted and he should be on one goal in three matches (not a terrible return for a club still finding itself with a lot of new parts) or it shouldn’t have and he’s a disaster who is over the hill. It certainly can’t be both. The truth is somewhere in-between, of course, but I’d be careful about pulling the plug on Rooney too early and only getting cents on the dollar back from someone in a trade.

Pedro – On the opposite end of the scale, we have Chelsea’s newly signed forward Pedro who scored early on in his debut and looked bright. While this shouldn’t be discounted, let’s remember that he scored on a deflection that is probably handled minus the deflection. His assist for Diego Costa’s goal was also nice but if we’re talking about a lone assist in a 2-2 draw then our outlook on Pedro is far different than it is after a deflected goal and a 3-2 win for the Blues.

Russell Martin – In this case the “sequencing” is that he’s scored twice in his first three matches since the Canaries were promoted. He is 29-years-old and history shows that he is generally good for two or three goals per match over the course of a 30+ match season. With 30+ matches still to go, it is reasonable to expect that he might end the season with four or five (the two he already has plus his customary two to three over the course of 30+ matches) but to expect him to have approach even the high end of the single digits is to ignore the randomness of how a sequence unfolds. All you have to do is look back at Tom Cleverley’s season last year to see how a very small total goal output can be crammed into a short span of matches. Cleverley scored three in three but nothing the entire rest of the season.

Callum Wilson – It’s never a bad thing to score a Premier League hat trick. Unfortunately for the Callum Wilson hype machine, it probably came a match or two too late for him to get full credit. On the backs of Austin/Ings/Kane last season, the world was expecting amazing things from the likes of Wilson, Odion Ighalo and Troy Deeney who all put up big numbers in the Championship last season. After two very quiet matches to start his Premier League career, there were likely a lot of people jumping off the Callum Wilson Bandwagon at breakneck pace. One hat trick later and everyone is likely jumping back on but probably not before some disappointed managers either dropped him too early or traded him to someone with a bit more patience. Of note before you do the same with Ighalo, Deeney, or Matt Ritchie.

There are countless other examples – compare Jamie Vardy and Raheem Sterling. Vardy’s stock is probably still very high after an opening weekend goal even though he hasn’t done much in the two weeks since. Sterling was close to invisible for the first two weeks but re-emerged in Week 3 but people were down on his first two weeks and probably wrote the good performance off to some extent. Both will be solid but up-and-down contributors in attacks where they are complimentary pieces but don’t let the sequence of when they made their first significant contributions of the season influence your opinion of them more than it should.

Check in with Rotoworld.com all summer for transfer analysis and 2015-16 season previews

The Title Race

The Title Race (Ranked from favorites to most likely to miss out on the Champions League)

Manchester City – Hard to say anything bad here. Three wins. Multiple goals in all of them. Clean sheets in all of them. No terrible teams over-inflating their performances so far. All this done with perhaps three of their best four defenders not starting (I’m assuming that Zabaleta, Otamendi and Clichy will start the biggest matches once healthy). The only real issue that I can see looming is that there’s no answer if Yaya Toure is out for an extended period. Sergio Aguero is their best player but the drop from Kun to Wilfried Bony isn’t nearly as steep as the drop from Toure to Fernando or whomever might replace him if the Ivorian were to be missing for an extended spell.

Chelsea – Another “good news/bad news” sort of weekend for the Blues. Most importantly, they got their first win of the season. Pedro looked like the real deal even if his goal contained a lot of luck. That they snatched him away from Manchester United who could REALLY use him was a huge plus as well. On the down side, there were multiple bone-headed plays (Terry’s red card and Matic’s penalty conceded being the obvious examples) and continued lackluster play from Eden Hazard and Cesc Fabregas. If Hazard, Pedro, Costa, and Fabregas can all start playing well at the same time Chelsea may not need a defense and it probably doesn’t matter whether it’s Oscar, Willian or me who is playing that other attacking midfield role. What does seem clear is that there are a few gears for the Blues to shift up into and while we aren’t at a critical juncture, City looks like they’ll be happy to continue putting distance between themselves and Chelsea until Mourinho and company figure it out.

Arsenal – Arsenal have yet to play this weekend with their match against Liverpool at the Emirates scheduled for later today.

Manchester United – Rooney’s goal should have been allowed and United should have won 1-0 against Newcastle. That can’t detract from the fact that their previous two 1-0 wins smacked off running down the luck that finally went against them in Week 3. There was still some luck going the Red Devils’ way as the defense was THISclose to cracking with Aleksandar Mitrovic’s header hitting the crossbar rather than going in. I guess the good news is that it could have been worse, they could have lost to the Magpies rather than drawing. Throw the poor result on top of the fact that a) the return of Marouane Fellaini from his three match suspension is being hailed as something that could make a big difference; b) Chelsea stole what they needed most (Pedro) to boost an attack that is lagging; and c) the combined point total of the three clubs United have played only equals United’s total of seven. You suspect on that final point that Spurs will end the season higher than 16th where they currently sit but a 1-0 win over a team not playing well is hardly something to hang your hat on. The next eight days at Old Trafford are going to be interesting.

The Second Tier (Ranked from most likely to break into the Champions League to least likely)

Liverpool – We’ll fill in here on Liverpool’s match with Bournemouth last weekend since they have yet to play this weekend and we didn’t get to write about that one because it also happened on Monday. Let’s face it, Liverpool, appear to be mirroring Manchester United’s start to the season. They were lucky to win their opener with a lightning bolt from Coutinho. They shouldn’t have beaten Bournemouth who were on both ends of the sort of officiating that smaller clubs always complain about when playing bigger clubs. They had a good goal disallowed and weren’t given the same courtesy as Coutinho’s offside presence should certainly have caused Benteke’s goal to be disallowed. A draw was probably the right outcome but for Liverpool to be anything other than a dubious proposition after two weeks is probably coming from a fervent supporter looking to talk themselves into a realistic jump up the table.

Spurs – Speaking of dubious, Spurs really don’t look good to start the season. Last year, we were forgiving Mauricio Pochettino because he had the second half of the season before his great first full season at Southampton to get things in order. No such excuses this time around as he’s had an entire year to get things right and it just hasn’t clicked into place yet. Harry Kane was a very high profile decoy on Spurs only goal on the day and it was down to Hugo Lloris’ great positioning that Leicester City’s late header didn’t tilt the outcome in the Foxes’ favor. If Harry Kane isn’t going to be a 20+ goal scorer this year then you have to wonder whether Spurs are even a top half team. Eriksen and Lloris are the only other players in the squad as it stands right now who you feel would start at Liverpool, let alone and of the current Champions League clubs. If Daniel Levy brings in some help for Kane before the transfer window slams shut then maybe Spurs can continue to tread water but with clubs like Stoke City and Crystal Palace bringing in the likes of Shaqiri and Cabaye while Spurs stand still, things aren’t looking good at the Lane.

Southampton – Ronald Koeman reacted to his side’s miserable defensive performances over the first two weeks of the league campaign and changed his line-up to a 5-4-1 for the match-up with Watford. I admit I was expecting an open affair based on four relatively ineffective defenders behind two mediocre holding players for Southampton. Apparently, when they commit seven players to defending, they can keep out a mid-table team. The problem is that they could barely muster an attack with only Graziano Pelle really mustering a strong chance that Heurelho Gomes saved. Could this be the year that the Saints finally start to show the losses of past transfer windows? Maybe Clasie and Bertrand will return and Koeman will bring in one or two more key contributors in the next week but it’s looking like a significant step back for the Saints this season. As far as individual player notes, Sadio Mane will have to be monitored closely after coming off early with a concussion against the Hornets while Dusan Tadic appears to have been benched in record time.

The Relegation Battle (Ranked from most likely to be relegated to least)

Sunderland – Well, they picked up a point when none was probably expected against Swansea. They’re still the favorites for relegation in my book. Jermain Defoe may be complaining about playing farther out wide but he’s scoring goals so may be an under-appreciated fantasy player because of the team around him.

Aston Villa – Villa haven’t had the easiest go of it so far this season but it’s hard to see how this is going to turn out well. A loss at Selhurst Park is at the same time not surprising and deflating. Villa should have the resources to do everything that the Eagles have done as far as putting a squad together. Former boy wonder Marc Albrighton, released by Villa, is coming good on his promise at Leicester City while the list of replacements at Villa Park don’t look much better than adequate individually and don’t seem to be making up for a lack of high end talent by playing a cohesive and disciplined system that sometimes allows modestly talented clubs to punch above their weight on a regular basis. There’s nothing in Tim Sherwood’s history to suggest he’s the sort of guy who can get a club to overachieve based on the system he is going to impose. Adama Traore was intriguing in his debut but he can hardly be expected to make the difference at his age, can he?

Newcastle United – With all three newly promoted sides looking entirely capable of staying up, we have to start looking around for candidates to be relegated. A point at Old Trafford isn’t anything anyone should be punished for but solidly mid-table teams (see Swansea last season) take advantage when United are down and get wins rather than draws. Like Aston Villa, it’s just hard to see where the improvement is going to come from. The roster is limited and a bunch of money has already been spent. Florian Thauvin looked OK in his debut but not so good that he’ll be changing the Magpies’ fortunes.

Bournemouth – That’s what they’ve been waiting for! The Callum Wilson Revolution might have been a couple of weeks late in starting thanks to some shaky dribbling/finishing in Week 1 but it has been joined after a hat trick against the Hammers. That the Cherries conceded three and the Hammers were knocking on the door of an equalizer as time expired is worrying. They also won’t be gifted a goal like the one Aaron Cresswell gave up as he essentially played Wilson in for his second with an ill-advised pass. As a fantasy owner, it was disappointing to see the Cherries score four without Matt Ritchie being involved in any of them but I’d suggest you don’t bail, he’ll have his breakout soon enough just like Wilson did.

Watford – It was a second somewhat ugly goalless draw in as many weekends for the Hornets. Troy Deeney is struggling for shots on target let alone goals and the three playing behind Deeney just couldn’t make inroads against a packed box courtesy of Ronald Koeman’s 5-4-1 formation. Three draws isn’t a bad outcome as Quique Flores and his team figure things out in the Premier League but wins will need to come at least occasionally lest too many draws push the Hornets into the same territory that Sunderland found themselves in last season.

Norwich City – Who saw that coming? It isn’t so much that four points in three matches is a stunning output but looking a little deeper, the way they got there has been impressive. The Canaries could legitimately claim that they deserved a draw against early-season darlings Crystal Palace in Week 1. They stomped on Sunderland in Week 2. In Week 3 they were definitely the team with the better chance to break the deadlock with visiting Stoke City and get the three points. That they didn’t may come back to haunt them later in the season but this is definitely not the same listless group that were relegated under Chris Houghton two seasons ago. Most of the players are the same but the manager appears to have made something better out of them.

Follow the RotoWorld_PL team on Twitter: Galin | Jeremy | Neal | Nik | Steve | Ben | Rob


Newcomer of the Year of the Week

Even with the deflection, it’s hard to give this award to anyone other than Pedro after he helped the Blues to their first win of the season. Throw Shaqiri’s name into the mix as well for his debut assist on Mame Diouf’s goal and the Premier League continues to get stronger each week as the newfound TV money continues to bring quality all over the table.

Season Leaders: 1) Andre Ayew; 2) Dimitri Payet; 3) Yohan Cabaye; 4) Matteo Darmian; 5) Pedro

Young Player of the Year

Callum Wilson pretty much rocketed to the top of this category after his hat trick against West Ham.

Season Leaders: 1) Nathan Redmond; 2) Callum Wilson; 3) Ross Barkley; 4) Wilfried Zaha; 5) Jordan Amavi

Player of the Year

Another weekend another goal for Mahrez and it was a beauty while Bafetimbi Gomis separated himself from Andre Ayew at Swansea. We’re not going to put Callum Wilson into the top five for the season on one week’s worth of work but we are going to add Aleksandar Kolarov to the mix of City players combining in the two spot. Aguero will likely replace them all soon enough but Kolarov’s contribution over the first three weeks has to be acknowledged and that City have managed to keep three clean sheets while this non-defense-playing-defender has been starting is impressive.

Season Leaders: 1) Riyad Mahrez; 2) Yaya Toure/Kompany/Kolarov/Silva; 3) Gomis; 4) Ross Barkley; 5) Nathan Redmond

Manager of the Year of the Week

Alex Neil and Eddie Howe join the ranks this week with Howe picking up a first win and Neil continuing to have Norwich defying the pundits despite modest talent. Allan Pardew should be on the list somewhere as well but there’s no room quite yet and he’s got more talent and budget than any of his newly promoted counterparts.

Season Leaders: 1) Manuel Pellegrini; 2) Claudio Raineri; 3) Alex Neil; 4) Quique Flores ; 5) Eddie Howe


My Week in Expert Leagues

It’s looking like an ugly week for me in my two expert leagues. In the IEFSA league, I’m trailing our old friend Nik significantly heading into today’s Arsenal vs. Liverpool match. I have Olivier Giroud and Hector Bellerin going against Dejan Lovern but both Gunners will need to have HUGE matches to make up for the on-going disappointment that is my defense. I was wrong on how integral James Chester would become to the West Brom side and didn’t have an option to replace him come Sunday when he didn’t start against Chelsea. I was also stuck with Miguel Layun in defense even after I warned everyone that he was likely to be benched for a more attacking player coming out of next week. Chalk this one up to bad management on my part no matter the outcome. For the season that drops me to 1-2 assuming that I do end up losing.

In the Togga Experts league, I went up against the buzzsaw that is Mike Phillips who has Sergio Romero, Bacary Sagna, Luke Shaw, Jose Fonte, Nathan Redmond, Robbie Brady, Marc Albrighton, Aaron Ramsey, Eric Lamela, Troy Deeney, and Alexis Sanchez. He’s crushing me and he still has Ramsey and Sanchez to play. He won this one before it stated with better drafting but it certainly didn’t help that Dusan Tadic was benched and Boaz Myhill had to face Chelsea over the weekend. Ivanovic was also a huge let down and Gylfi Sigurdsson seems to have regressed with more of the attack going through Gomis, Ayew and Montero. Honestly, I didn’t have a bad week despite all that but it was hardly a good week either.

Players I’m looking at acquiring: Outside of the obvious candidates coming into the league via transfers (e.g., Pedro for sure and potentially De Bruyne) there are some players out there that are likely to be in new places come September 1 and it might be worth taking a risk to add one or more of them if you need to do something bold to make up for some drafting mis-steps. Victor Moses and Aaron Lennon are the first two names that jump out at me in this regard. Lennon was very effective playing regularly for Everton on loan last season and a return to Goodison Park could be worth investing in a week ahead of time if you’re not in a position to land any of the big names. Likewise, Moses has been linked to West Ham and if he can deliver anything like what he did at Stoke City last season when he was healthy than he’s worth a lottery ticket purchase too. I’d add Adama Traore to this list but I’m just not sure how much playing time he’s going to get. In a year or two, sure, but he’s a back-up plan for me at this point rather than a primary acquisition target.

Players I’m thinking about ditching: The Miguel Layun era ended as quickly as it started now that Watford have some of their attacking midfield players back in the fold. Troy Deeney watch has officially started even if I wouldn’t recommend dumping him just yet. Everyone who took a flier on Juan Cuadrado can consider that an open roster spot with the news that he’s headed to Juventus on loan for the year. Speaking of Chelsea players, those (like me in a couple of leagues) to took a chance on Patrick Bamford given his excellent record in the Championship last season and the relative lack of a locked-in forward at Crystal Palace should drop him like a stone if something better comes along. It might happen for him this season but it doesn’t look like it’s going to happen early.



Random Closing Thoughts

My Second Club – Anyone taking points off of Spurs late and in dramatic fashion is going to endear themselves to me as a full-time Arsenal supporter so chalk one up for Leicester City. Crystal Palace has a whiff of disappointment about them despite another win. I was really hoping for some attractive play and they haven’t quite lived up to my, admittedly lefty, expectations just yet. Finally, I watched all 90 Watford minutes for the second consecutive week and went without a goal for the second consecutive week. How long can I do this before I formally narrow the competition to two teams for the season? I’ll give them their next match against Chelsea and if they don’t impress in that one then we’re down to two.


This Week’s Good Points: Any point for Sunderland against a solid team is a good one so they get one for their draw against the Swans (although I feel somehow wrong for calling a home draw a good thing against any but the top teams, such are the depths that the Black Cats have fallen to). Newcastle can claim full marks for a good point at Old Trafford while Bournemouth gets high marks for three points on the road.


The Good Points Table: Everton 3; Norwich City 3; West Ham United 3; Bournemouth 3; Manchester City 2; Swansea City 1; Watford 1; Stoke City 1; Newcastle 1; Sunderland 1;


This Week’s Bad Points: While West Ham pick up the most “bad points” after dropping all three points to the Cherries, Manchester United are this week’s biggest losers dropping two points they’ll certainly want back later against the Magpies at Old Trafford. Swansea get two bad points for not joining the “thrash Sunderland” conga line even if it was on the road.


The Bad Points Table: Arsenal 3; Southampton 3; Sunderland 3; West Ham 3; Manchester United 2; Swansea 2; Tottenham 2; Chelsea 2; Everton 2


My Favorite Things – Pantilimon’s exceptional saves to secure the Black Cats a first point of the season…Just about everything Jefferson Montero does going forward…Riyad Mahrez keeping it going…Nathan Redmond keeping it going…David Silva’s performances that aren’t showing up in goals and assists…Scott Dann, Russell Martin, and Cheikhou Kouyate among the league leaders in goals (you know it’s early in the season when…)…Bakary Sako getting a winner on his Premier League debut (how many speedy wingers do Palace have exactly?)…Adama Traore showing at least some spark in an otherwise uninspiring Villa team…Shaqiri taking free kicks…


My Least Favorite Things – Watching Spurs try to get the ball to Harry Kane…Aaron Cresswell’s back passing…Cesc Fabregas half-assing it through the season so far (and not getting called on it like Ozil would be for a similar performance – remember that thing about sequencing from the beginning of the column? Fabregas’ first half of last season bought him a LOT of benefit of the doubt)…James Morrison at the penalty spot (Brunt would have buried that and we’d have a class a Stamford Bridge crisis on our hands)…Jordan Amavi’s learning curve…the center forward spot at Crystal Palace…the offside flag at Old Trafford…the post depriving us of what an Aleksandar Mitrovic celebration might be like (he might just go punch someone because he felt like he could)…West Brom’s defending…Tim Howard conceding the near post to Kolarov…me watching 180 minutes of consecutive scoreless Watford football…


What did we find out? Manchester City are not only very good but very deep, it’s going to be hard for anyone to beat them for the title unless there is an injury crises of Emirates-like proportions at the Etihad. Celsea is still good enough to beat a mediocre team despite playing pretty badly by the standards of a defending champion. Arsenal’s opening day loss to West Ham continues to look worse and worse each time the Hammers take the pitch. Manchester United will rue letting Pedro slip through their fingers and even more so if the incident has other top class players questioning whether they want to work with Van Gaal. Spurs need to bring in some help fast.


What’s Next? After we find out what happens with Arsenal and Liverpool later today, we get a bit of a quiet week in the Premier League. Aston Villa and Sunderland have a relegation six-pointer at Villa Park on Saturday and Spurs host Everton but there isn’t really anything you could call a marquee match-up. Sunday sees Norwich with another chance to pick up points if Southampton continue to flounder and Manchester United traveling to the Liberty Stadium to visit last season’s tormenters Swansea.