MLB Stock Watch: The trade deadline edition
STOCK UP
Matt Moore: He’s never lived up to the hype and still has control issues, but Moore has posted a 2.19 ERA with a 1.05 WHIP over his past eight starts (53.1 innings) and will be leaving the AL East to join the NL West, which is about as dramatic of a move as possible for a pitcher. Not that Tropicana Field is a hitter’s haven, but he will now call AT&T Park home, which has decreased run scoring by 12 percent over the past three seasons (the second lowest in MLB). Moore also goes from having a below average defense behind him to one of the best in baseball, and he gets to face a pitcher instead of a DH (and has one of the better pitching coaches on his side too). Moore is much more fantasy relevant now that he’s on the Giants.
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Dellin Betances: Andrew Miller has been shipped to Cleveland, so the dominant Betances will step in to close in New York as a result. Since the beginning of 2014, he owns a 1.68 ERA with a 40.8 K% and an MLB-high 8.0 WAR that easily leads all relievers (next best is Aroldis Chapman at 6.9). While save opportunities may not necessarily come in bunches, Betances should still be treated as a top-five fantasy closer down the stretch.
Josh Reddick: His main asset is power, and O.co Coliseum has suppressed home runs for left-handed batters by 25 percent over the past three seasons (the fourth lowest in MLB). Meanwhile, while Dodger Stadium is far from a hitter’s park, it actually has increased HR for LHB by 15 percent over that same time frame, so the move should boost Reddick’s value.
Tony Watson: With Mark Melancon headed to the Nationals, Watson is now the Pirates’ closer. The lefty could improve his control some, but he doesn’t have big platoon splits, and he obviously should be owned in all fantasy leagues. Neftali Feliz becomes the next in line for saves in Pittsburgh, while Jonathan Papelbon can safely be dropped in all formats.
Eduardo Nunez: The Giants dealing away Matt Duffy ensures Nunez will be a regular over the rest of the season as opposed to a super utility role he was looking at after first getting dealt to San Francisco.
Rich Hill: He not only gets the usual benefit of moving from the American League to the Senior Circuit, but he goes to a park that’s decreased run scoring by 10 percent over the past three years (third lowest in MLB), and he leaves an A’s defense that graded as by far the worst in all of baseball to an above average one in Los Angeles. The Dodgers also lead MLB in reliever ERA, so Hill could be a dominant fantasy starter down the stretch assuming he recovers from his blister injury. His 2.25 ERA would rank third in MLB if he qualified while his 28.9 K% would rank No. 6, and that’s before the move to the NL.
STOCK DOWN
Jay Bruce: The NL RBI leader really relies on his power, and his current 20.8 HR/FB% is a career high. Bruce will be leaving a home park that boosts home runs for lefties about as well as any in baseball, and while Citi Field isn’t a hindrance there, the run scoring environments will be a drastic change (Citi Field has decreased runs by an MLB-high 13 percent over the past three seasons). The move will hardly crush his value, but fantasy owners would’ve preferred Bruce stayed put.
Francisco Liriano/Aaron Sanchez: Not that Liriano was helping fantasy owners as is, but the move away from PNC Park (and pitching coach Ray Searage) to Toronto and the American League East should lead to truly ugly numbers. More importantly, the trade likely means Sanchez will move to the Blue Jays’ bullpen, which would destroy his fantasy value. Over his last eight starts, Sanchez has posted a 1.67 ERA with a 0.98 WHIP.
Jeremy Jeffress: The move to Texas likely means Jeffress is now in a setup role (although that’s not guarantee) behind Sam Dyson, who just finished July with a 0.93 ERA (albeit with some not so pretty peripherals). Tyler Thornburg appears to be the new closer in Milwaukee and is a must add in all fantasy leagues.
Joey Gallo: He wasn’t included in the Jonathan Lucroy deal, and with Texas dealing for Carlos Beltran, it almost certainly means a return trip to the minors for Gallo. While he once again looked overmatched by major league pitching during his latest stint with the Rangers, Gallo’s power upside remains immense. But fantasy owners may not get the chance to see it until 2017.
Cody Allen: The biggest theme when it comes to this year’s trade deadline and changing fantasy values is at the closer position, where a ton of turmoil has taken place. Allen is safe to drop in all leagues despite pitching effectively all season (2.58 ERA, 1.08 WHIP) with Andrew Miller now in Cleveland. Meanwhile, Hector Rondon can be kept in cap leagues with such strong ratios, but he’s no longer going to accrue saves with Aroldis Chapman now in Chicago.
