Matchup: Vikings @ Packers
Thursday Night Football
Minnesota @ Green Bay
The Vikings' defense has played above its head from a personnel standpoint in Mike Zimmer's first month as coach, but is beginning to show vulnerability. Having managed just three sacks over its last three games, Minnesota has served up back-to-back 290-plus-yard and multi-TD games to Drew Brees and Matt Ryan. Brees and Ryan combined to complete 52-of-76 throws (68.4%) for 591 yards (7.78 YPA), five touchdowns, and two interceptions against the Vikings. Brees and Ryan are top-notch passers, of course, but so is Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers' TD-to-INT ratio on the season stands at 9:1. He shredded the Bears at Soldier Field last Sunday, in Week 4's premier quarterback performance. ... Rodgers' Weeks 1-4 target distribution: Jordy Nelson 49; Randall Cobb 30; Davante Adams 13; Andrew Quarless 11; Eddie Lacy 9; Jarrett Boykin 7; James Starks 4; Richard Rodgers 3; DuJuan Harris 2. ...Enemy No. 1 receiver stats against the Vikings: Julian Edelman 6-81-1; Brian Quick 7-99; Julio Jones 6-82. Marques Colston 2-25-1. Lock in NFL targets leader Nelson as an elite WR1. ... After managing target totals of six and six in Weeks 2-3, Cobb's passing-game workload rose to nine targets in last week's win. Green Bay's continued run-game struggles could ultimately work to slot man Cobb's advantage as a chain-moving alternative. Cobb's current TD rate is obviously unsustainable -- he's on pace for 20 touchdowns after failing to score more than eight in any of his first three NFL seasons -- but he's also the clear No. 2 option in a Rodgers-quarterbacked passing game. Cobb is a rock-solid WR2 against the Vikings.
With third receiver duties all to himself in last week's win over the Bears, second-round pick Adams played 71% of Green Bay's offensive snaps and had a 34-yard touchdown negated by a holding penalty back at the line of scrimmage. Adams has not yet earned "safe" WR3 fantasy treatment, but his arrow is still pointing up with an abundance of talent and growing role. He's a boom-or-bust option on Thursday night. ... Getting dominated as a run blocker, rookie TE Rodgers failed to play more than 47% of Green Bay's offensive snaps in each of the first four games. He did catch a 43-yard A-Rod rocketball early in last week's win over the Bears, but is just barely a fantasy TE2. ... Quarless does play a lot of snaps, but isn't a big part of the Packers' passing attack. He wasn't targeted once against Chicago. ... Lacy's rushing ineffectiveness continued against the Bears, but fantasy owners can hang their hats on his usage and goal-line score potential. The Packers gave primary backup James Starks only one Week 3 snap, while DuJuan Harris did not play. Lacy's 96% snap rate and 18 touches were both season highs. The Vikings' defense has been middling on the ground, allowing 434 yards and three touchdowns on 99 carries (4.38 YPC) to opposing running backs in Weeks 1-4. Minnesota will be without every-down WLB Chad Greenway (hand, ribs) for the second straight week. Lacy can't be trusted as a legitimate RB1 until his efficiency improves, but he'll continue to be a good weekly bet to hit pay dirt.
Wednesday Update: Coach Mike McCarthy stated in his Wednesday press conference that he expects rookie Adams to see more opportunities Thursday night as opponents begin to tilt coverage in target monster Nelson's direction. The Packers clearly want Adams to become a significant part of their passing game. Boykin (groin/knee) has been ruled out for Week 5. So expect Adams to continue to play roughly 70% of Green Bay's offensive snaps. He's definitely worth WR3 consideration against Minnesota.
Vikings OC Norv Turner's Week 4 deployment of Teddy Bridgewater was promising. Making his first NFL start, Bridgewater was utilized frequently on read-option plays, amassing 27 yards and a TD on five scrambles, while being allowed to fire off 30 pass attempts despite missing much of the fourth quarter with a sprained left ankle. He's a worthwhile two-quarterback-league play at Lambeau Field, but QB1 streamers need to be cautious with Teddy. He's coming off an ankle injury on a short week and making his second big-league start in a hostile road environment. Over the past three weeks, Green Bay's top-five pass defense has limited Matthew Stafford, Jay Cutler, and Geno Smith to 60-of-100 passing for 678 yards (6.78 YPA) and a 3:5 TD-to-INT ratio. ... Bridgewater's target distribution since he replaced Matt Cassel in Week 3: Jarius Wright and Greg Jennings 10; Jerick McKinnon and Matt Asiata 8; Cordarrelle Patterson 7; Chase Ford 4. ... Norv called a high-percentage game in last week's upset of Atlanta, implementing a quick-hitting attack with a high volume of drags and screens, and defined play-action reads. Despite playing only 53% of Minnesota's snaps, third receiver Wright was the surprise box-score beneficiary, turning a career-high 10 targets into career highs in receptions (8) and yards (132). Wright is a good player who's long been underutilized, but can he keep it up in such a limited role? Wright's Weeks 1-3 receiving lines were 2-25, 1-12, and 0-0. I think it could just as easily be Patterson catching those drags and screens in Green Bay.
Wednesday Update: Bridgewater (ankle) is shaping up as a game-time decision Thursday night after failing to practice this week. If Christian Ponder ends up getting the nod, all Vikings skill-position players would get fantasy downgrades, and Green Bay's defense would come into play as a Week 5 streamer. A mentally fragile quarterback, Ponder has historically been prone to head-scratching mistakes, untimely turnovers, and extended stretches where he's simply unable to move the offense. Keep an eye on the situation. We may not get concrete answers until just before game time.
Patterson has played 90% of the Vikings' snaps over the last three weeks. He has scoreless stat lines of 4-56, 4-61, and 2-38 to show for it, with one rushing attempt that lost seven yards. Until we see evidence of Norv making a commitment to feeding Patterson the football, he must be downgraded to boom-or-bust weekly WR3. I would still play him over Wright if forced to choose between the two on Thursday night. ... Perhaps the "revenge" narrative comes into play as Jennings squares off with his former team, although the Packers held him to 2-29 and 1-9 in last year's two meetings. Over his last 16 games, Jennings has managed 848 yards and five touchdowns on 72 catches. There's nothing to suggest Jennings is more than a low-floor, low-upside WR3 option. ... After defending the Jets and Lions stoutly in Weeks 2-3, Green Bay's run defense was exposed in last week's win over Chicago. Matt Forte and rookie Ka'Deem Carey gashed the Packers for 194 yards on 37 combined carries (5.24 YPC). Although Asiata is not nearly the fantasy player his three-touchdown Week 4 effort suggests, he will continue to dominate goal-line work and be utilized consistently as a receiver. In a plus matchup, Asiata is a passable RB2/flex. I do believe owners should seriously begin contemplating selling talent-deficient Asiata high. ... Explosive rookie McKinnon's snap rates through three weeks are 33%, 30%, and 43%. He finally turned his opportunities into production against the Falcons, parlaying 18 carries into 135 yards with a 17-yard reception. OC Turner is still publicly referring to McKinnon as a "change-of-pace back" who isn't threatening for Asiata's starting job. Although chasing last week's points is tempting, McKinnon remains a dice-roll flex option at Green Bay.
Score Prediction: Packers 27, Vikings 17
