Matchup: Steelers @ Titans
Monday Night Football
Pittsburgh @ Tennessee
The Titans' Week 10 offensive display was difficult to watch. Coach Ken Whisenhunt called an extremely conservative game, refusing to challenge Baltimore's defense outside the numbers despite the fact that the Ravens' perimeter cornerbacks were a converted safety (Anthony Levine) and in-season waiver-wire pickup (Danny Gorrer). Most disappointingly, big-armed rookie Zach Mettenberger can't get anything going downfield. Per Pro Football Focus, Mettenberger has completed just 12 of his 30 throws of ten-plus yards for 241 yards and three interceptions. Mettenberger's lone attempt beyond 20 yards at Baltimore was complete to Justin Hunter, but negated by a questionable offensive pass interference flag. Between the first and fourth frames, the Titans went two-plus quarters without generating a first down. Pittsburgh has plenty of defensive vulnerabilities -- SS Troy Polamalu (knee), ILB Ryan Shazier (ankle), and RCB Ike Taylor (forearm) are all out again -- but Whisenhunt and Mettenberger don't appear capable of exploiting them. ... Mettenberger's target distribution through three 2014 appearances (two starts): Kendall Wright and Delanie Walker 14; Hunter 13; Nate Washington 9; Bishop Sankey 7; Leon Washington 6; Dexter McCluster 4; Derek Hagan 2. ... Also working against Hunter is a difficult matchup with Steelers RCB William Gay, PFF's No. 13 cover corner among 106 qualifiers. As usual, Hunter is a boom-or-bust WR3 against Pittsburgh.
Although Wright has done little recently to warrant fantasy start-ability, he has the best Week 11 draw among Tennessee's pass catchers. Wright runs most of his patterns in the slot, where the Steelers use ex-Texan Brice McCain. McClain has earned negative coverage grades from PFF in three straight weeks. Just keep in mind Wright's stat lines in Mettenberger's two starts are 3-53-0 and 4-53-0. He's a dicey WR3 option and really should be treated as a WR4. ... Walker suffered a scary concussion in last week's loss to the Ravens, his second brain injury in less than a year. After seeing the play, it would be a surprise if Walker were active against the Steelers. He did participate in Friday's practice and is listed as questionable. Walker's backups are Chase Coffman, Richard Gordon, and Brett Brackett. ... Shonn Greene opened last week's game with five yards on three carries and a goal-line fumble to wreck a promising drive. He played one snap after coughing up the loose ball. With McCluster (knee) also going down during the game, Bishop Sankey took on feature back duties, amassing 77 yards on a season-high 20 touches. Greene's role has clearly diminished, and McCluster is questionable for this game. The Titans' offensive ineptitude lowers his ceiling, but Sankey is worth a look as a lower-end flex play against a Steelers defense allowing a crisp 4.41 yards per carry to opposing running backs. Pittsburgh will be without NT Steve McLendon (shoulder).
Look for Le'Veon Bell to get back on track Monday night following his worst two yardage efforts of the season, taking on a Titans team that ranks second-to-last in Football Outsiders' run-defense DVOA metric and was scorched for a 20-112-2 rushing line by Justin Forsett in Week 10. Although Bell's production has slowed down a bit recently, he has 100-plus total yards and/or a touchdown in 9-of-10 games this season. He's a shoo-in top-five RB1 in this matchup. ... Ben Roethlisberger's Weeks 7-9 touchdown pace was never sustainable, but he still threw for 343 yards in last week's loss to the Jets and is a low-end fantasy QB1 in Monday night's clash with Tennessee. Just keep in mind the Titans' defensive strength is in the air, where DC Ray Horton's unit ranks No. 11 in yards allowed with average to above-average peripheral stats. Football Outsiders has Tennessee as the NFL's No. 21 pass defense in DVOA. Expect a solid-not-prolific Monday nighter from Big Ben. Despite last Sunday's slowdown, Roethlisberger is still completing 72.8% of his passes with a 9.07 YPA and 15:2 TD-to-INT ratio since the Steelers began playing Martavis Bryant four games ago.
Roethlisberger's target distribution the past four weeks: Antonio Brown 51; Le'Veon 31; Bryant 24; Markus Wheaton 18; Heath Miller 14; Lance Moore 8; LeGarrette Blount 3. ... Even when Brown has bad real-life football games, he still delivers in fantasy. He lost two fumbles against the Jets, one on a screen pass and another on a muffed punt, yet still secured 8-of-9 targets for 74 yards. On pace for an otherworldly 127-1,712-13 receiving line this season, Brown is a no-brainer top-five WR1. ... Wheaton and Bryant continue to share time at No. 2 wideout. In Week 10 against New York, Wheaton played 61% of the snaps and saw seven targets, but finished with 41 scoreless yards. A 59% player against the Jets, Bryant was quiet until he saved his fantasy day with an 80-yard garbage-time score. Slot receiver Moore's role (27% snap rate) has been deservedly scaled back. Bryant's part-time status and average of six targets per game continues to render him more WR2/3 than the WR1 his box-score numbers suggest, but he won't stop being a good bet for weekly TDs. He's 6-foot-4 and 211 pounds with 4.42 speed, and has six TDs over the last month. ... Wheaton remains involved in Pittsburgh's offense, but his snaps have been cut and he hasn't cleared 70 receiving yards since Week 1. He's a fantasy WR4. ... Miller went 10-85-1 against the Bucs in Week 4, and 7-112-1 against the Colts in Week 8. He's averaged 3.5 targets across his other eight games. Just a TE1 streamer option at this point, Miller has a middling matchup against a Tennessee defense that ranks 14th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends.
Score Prediction: Steelers 23, Titans 17
