Matchup: Ravens @ Steelers
Thursday Night Football
Baltimore @ Pittsburgh
Ravens-Steelers has a pedestrian 44-point Vegas total with visiting Baltimore favored by 2.5. Despite a modest team total of just over 23 points, the Ravens' passing game is in a quality Week 4 spot. Joe Flacco faced the Steelers three times last season, completing 69-of-103 throws (67%) for 728 yards (7.07 YPA) with a 6:1 TD-to-INT ratio. Pittsburgh's pass defense has remained leaky this year, yielding six touchdown passes and one interception with a 72.6% combined completion rate to Tom Brady, Colin Kaepernick, and Nick Foles. Football Outsiders has graded Pittsburgh with the NFL's No. 26 pass defense in DVOA, compared to No. 4 in run defense. Baltimore quietly ranks No. 8 in the league in passing yards through three games. Flacco is a top-12 QB1 play with upside on Thursday night. ... Justin Forsett gets a tougher draw. In Weeks 1-3, the Steelers held Patriots, 49ers, and Rams running backs to 167 scoreless yards on 60 carries (2.78 YPC). With Lorenzo Taliaferro and rookie Buck Allen continuing to steal snaps and touches, Forsett has yet to top 15 carries in a game. He's stayed active with four receptions in each of the first three weeks, but is averaging under four yards a catch. As Taliaferro remains the favorite for goal-line work in Baltimore's backfield, Forsett is best viewed as a low-upside RB2 against an upper-echelon run defense on the road.
Flacco's target distribution in Weeks 1-3: Steve Smith Sr. 40; Forsett 18; Crockett Gillmore 13; Kamar Aiken and Marlon Brown 11; Maxx Williams 10; Kyle Juszczyk 8; Taliaferro and Michael Campanaro 4. ... Pittsburgh has coughed up stat lines of 7-102 (Kenny Britt), 6-120-1 (Torrey Smith), 6-60-1 (Anquan Boldin), and 11-97 (Julian Edelman) to enemy wide receivers so far this season. Dominating targets and stuffing the stat sheet, Smith has an exciting outlook as a WR2 play. Smith caught at least five passes in each of last season's three meetings with the Steelers. ... With Gillmore (calf) not expected to play, second-round rookie Williams is worth a serious look as a TE1 streamer. When Gillmore was hobbled in last week's loss to the Bengals, Williams piled up seven targets and logged a season-high 51% of the snaps. I'd expect Williams to play upwards of 75% of the downs on Thursday night. Pittsburgh has allowed the NFL's third most fantasy points to tight ends. ... Supporting-cast receivers Aiken, Brown, and Campanaro have given the Ravens very little early in the season. Aiken is playing the most snaps, but finished Week 1 with -1 receiving yards and last week with a goose egg. The minute Breshad Perriman overcomes his PCL injury, he should be counted on for a meaningful role. Perriman is worth stashing in 12- and 14-team fantasy leagues with Smith Sr. also likely to slow down over the course of his age-36 season.
Missing Ben Roethlisberger (MCL), Martavis Bryant (suspension), and Maurkice Pouncey (ankle), Pittsburgh's Week 4 team total is under 21 points. ... The Steelers' offense figures to become extremely Le'Veon Bell-centric in the absence of Big Ben, feeding its top playmaker heavy volume. It began in last week's win over St. Louis, with DeAngelo Williams only playing five snaps and logging one touch. Le'Veon returned to handle 95% of the downs, parlaying 26 touches into 132 yards with a one-yard goal-line plunge. In four career meetings with the Ravens, Bell has averaged 100 total yards per game and 4.38 yards per carry, scoring twice. While Le'Veon is a shoo-in top-five RB1 play, his rushing matchup will be difficult against a Baltimore defense that held Broncos, Raiders, and Bengals RBs to 214 yards and one score on 66 runs (3.24 YPC) in Weeks 1-3. ... Michael Vick has made 19 appearances (9 starts) between the Eagles, Jets, and Steelers over the past three seasons, completing 54.5% of his throws with an 8:5 TD-to-INT ratio and two rushing scores. He's fumbled ten times, losing four. At this stage of his career, 35-year-old Vick plays like a player who is overly confident in his diminishing athletic ability, and not confident whatsoever in his pocket-quarterbacking skills. While it would require an immense leap of faith to stream Vick as a QB1, it should be noted that Derek Carr and Andy Dalton combined to light up Baltimore for 50-of-78 passing (64.1%), 734 yards (9.41 YPA), and a 6:2 TD-to-INT ratio the last two weeks. The Terrell Suggs-less Ravens sacked Peyton Manning four times in Week 1, but have three sacks in two games since. Vick should have opportunities to make plays in the passing game against Baltimore. I'm just skeptical he'll make the most of them.
Vick's target distribution off the bench in Week 3: Bell 3; Antonio Brown, Markus Wheaton, and Darrius Heyward-Bey 1. ... Devoid of pass rush and tissue soft on the backend, Baltimore has coughed up stat lines of 10-227-2 (A.J. Green), 9-111-1 (Michael Crabtree), 7-109-1 (Amari Cooper), and 5-94-1 (Marvin Jones) to enemy wideouts over the last two weeks. The Ben-to-Vick downgrade is massive for the outlook of Brown, but the matchup is favorable and Brown won't stop being the Steelers' first read on passing plays. Brown has seven or more catches in 15 straight games and 18 of his last 19. I'm interested to see whether he can keep his streaks alive during Ben's 4-6 week absence. Including playoffs, Brown went 7-90, 11-144-1, and 9-117 in last year's three games against the Ravens. ... Complementary receivers Wheaton and DHB were barely factors before Roethlisberger went down. They're entirely off the fantasy radar now. ... The Ravens held Broncos tight ends to a combined 2-5-0 line in Week 1, Raiders tight ends to 5-25-0 in Week 2, and previously red-hot Tyler Eifert to a goose egg in Week 3. Heath Miller will be hard pressed to find any passing-game rhythm with the erratic and improvisational play of Vick. Look toward Sunday and Monday's slate for better lower-end TE1 options than Miller. I'd play Maxx Williams over him in this particular game.
Score Prediction: Ravens 24, Steelers 17
