Matchup: Patriots @ Chiefs
Monday Night Football
New England @ Kansas City
Kansas City's early-season Achilles' heel has been run defense. Since ILB Derrick Johnson ruptured his own Achilles' 32 snaps into Week 1, Titans, Broncos, and Dolphins tailbacks have combined to rip off 347 yards on 63 runs (5.51 YPC) against K.C. The Patriots can attack this weakness while silencing the raucous Arrowhead crowd by feeding power back Stevan Ridley inside the tackles, with Shane Vereen working the edges and as a high-percentage route runner on quick hitters out of the backfield. (Johnson was also the Chiefs' top coverage linebacker.) With Johnson and fellow projected starting ILB Joe Mays (wrist) on the shelf, the Chiefs are trotting out ex-Jets special teamer Josh Mauga and former Browns fourth-round pick James-Michael Johnson at inside linebacker. Both have earned decidedly negative grades from Pro Football Focus thus far. I like Ridley as a good bet to hit pay dirt and Vereen as an RB2 in PPR leagues, in spite of their slow starts. ... Jake Locker, Ryan Tannehill, and Peyton Manning combined for a 6:0 TD-to-INT ratio against Kansas City in Weeks 1-3. Although the matchup appears favorable on paper, New England's continued pass-protection woes could be exposed by explosive Chiefs outside-edge rushers Justin Houston, Tamba Hali, and Dee Ford. Considering his to-date performance, Tom Brady can only be viewed as a lower-end QB1 at Arrowhead. The Patriots would be better off attacking the Chiefs with a dink-and-dunk passing offense and high-volume run game. Hali, who has a sack in back-to-back games, will line up for most of the night against struggling Pats LT Nate Solder.
Brady's Weeks 1-3 target distribution: Julian Edelman 28; Rob Gronkowski 23; Vereen 16; Brandon LaFell 14; Kenbrell Thompkins 11; Danny Amendola 6; Tim Wright 4; Brandon Bolden and Ridley 3. ... Gronk played 44% of New England's offensive snaps in Week 1, 42% in Week 2, and 58% in Week 3. He's Gronk Smashed in two of the Patriots' first three games and is an elite TE1 option at Kansas City. The Chiefs' defense has coughed up three touchdowns to tight ends through three games and will be without SS Eric Berry (high ankle sprain) on Monday night. ... If Gronk and the running backs have the best on-paper matchups in New England's offense, Edelman isn't far behind. Based on normal offensive and defensive alignments, Edelman projects to run most of his pass routes at Chiefs LCB Marcus Cooper, who's been burned for TDs in back-to-back games. ... The rotating triumvirate of LaFell, Thompkins, and Aaron Dobson is officially a fantasy black hole. We don't know which of them will so much as dress for the game ahead of time, and only LaFell has experienced somewhat consistent usage. The Pats like LaFell's blocking, which doesn't help much in fantasy. ... Essentially phased out of the offense, Amendola's snap rates were 28% in Week 2 and 36% in Week 3. He's averaging two targets per game. ... Wright's snaps are an even more anemic 12% and 6%. I suppose he might have some value in deep Dynasty leagues.
Jamaal Charles (ankle) is expected to return on Monday Night Football, and should be reinserted into fantasy starting lineups. His matchup is still worth exploring. Since they were shredded by Knowshon Moreno and Lamar Miller on Opening Day, the Patriots' run defense has stiffened up, holding Vikings and Raiders tailbacks to 110 scoreless yards on 37 carries (2.97 YPC) the past two weeks. Of course, Minnesota and Oakland's running backs are not remotely on the same level as Charles. Fire him up as an RB1. ... Knile Davis paid off as a Week 3 fantasy spot start (132 yards, one touchdown), but didn't threaten for an "increased role" by fumbling twice, losing one, dropping a pass, and allowing two sacks in pass protection. Perhaps Davis will see a few more change-of-pace carries than usual with Kansas City's starter coming back from an injury, but when 100% this should remain Charles' backfield. ... New England currently has the No. 1 pass defense in football, limiting enemy offenses to league lows in passing yards per game (168.7) and yards per pass attempt (5.4). Opponents' quarterback rating is a paltry 57.4 with a TD-to-INT ratio of 3:6. The Pats have six sacks over their last two games. This is a forbidding matchup for Alex Smith, who should be treated as a low-end two-quarterback-league play.
Smith's target distribution through three games: Donnie Avery 22; Travis Kelce 15; Anthony Fasano 12; Dwayne Bowe and Davis 11; Junior Hemingway 8; Joe McKnight 7; Charles 5; A.J. Jenkins 3. ... Keep in mind Avery's 22 targets are skewed by his 13 looks in Week 1, when Bowe was suspended. Avery has averaged 4.5 targets per game since and is always a poor fantasy bet. ... Kelce's snap rates have climbed from 33% on Opening Day to 37% in Week 2 and 65% last Sunday in a game where the Chiefs led for three-plus quarters. Now a near-full-time player, Kelce is a legitimate fantasy TE1. He offers (easily) the highest ceiling in Kansas City's pass-catching corps on Monday night. ... Having managed stat lines of 3-40-0 and 3-32-0 in his two games back from suspension, Bowe can't be trusted as more than a potential garbage-time WR3 punt. Running most of his routes at left cornerbacks this year, Bowe is likely to square off often with Patriots LCB Darrelle Revis in this game. Although Revis has not played to his typical shutdown levels through three weeks, Bowe simply isn't a good bet to beat him. ... As Kelce has taken on a larger portion of Kansas City's receiving pie, Fasano's role has diminished. His target totals read 6, 4, 2, respectively over the past three games. Fasano could score a fluke red-zone touchdown against the Patriots, and still wouldn't be worth picking up.
Score Prediction: Patriots 24, Chiefs 20
