Matchup: Giants @ Redskins
Thursday Night Football
NY Giants @ Washington
Since replacing Robert Griffin III two Sundays ago, Kirk Cousins has completed 52-of-81 throws (64.2%) for 677 yards (8.36 YPA) with a 5:1 TD-to-INT ratio. I've always viewed Cousins as something between a high-end career backup and low-end NFL starter, but wouldn't characterize Andy Dalton much differently. And Dalton threw 33 touchdown passes in Redskins coach Jay Gruden's West Coast offense last year. Although the Giants' defense is better than Weeks 2-3 opponents Jacksonville and Philadelphia's, Cousins should be treated as a locked-in QB1 until he proves he's not. There is a lot of passing-game volume in Gruden's playbook and Cousins is surrounded by explosive weapons. Cousins lit up the Eagles last week with dimes at the second and third levels. ... Cousins' target distribution since RG3's injury: Pierre Garcon 20; Niles Paul 19; DeSean Jackson and Andre Roberts 11; Ryan Grant 9; Darrel Young 4; Roy Helu 3. ... Four days after tormenting Eagles CBs Cary Williams and Bradley Fletcher, Garcon and D-Jax will have their hands full against Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and Prince Amukamara, quietly one of the league's top cornerback duos. Both Garcon and Jackson must be treated as strong WR2s coming off double-digit target performances; just don't expect results quite like last week. But as long as Cousins is aggressively feeding Garcon and D-Jax the rock, they will be plug-and-play every-week starters. Look for DRC to spend most of this game on Jackson while Amukamara handles Garcon. Garcon has the slightly superior matchup.
Paul had a rough on-field Week 3, dropping a pass for the second straight game and quitting on a fourth-quarter route that resulted in a Cousins pick. But Paul is playing a voluminous role in Gruden's attack, turning in stat lines of 4-86, 8-99-1, and 6-68 in the first three weeks. The Giants have allowed the fourth fewest fantasy points to tight ends this season, but as long as Jordan Reed (hamstring) remains sidelined, Paul qualifies as a fantasy TE1. ... Missing MLB Jon Beason (toe) dearly, the G-Men have been stung for 205 yards and a touchdown on 38 carries (5.40 YPC) by Andre Ellington, Jonathan Dwyer, Alfred Blue, and Jonathan Grimes over the past two weeks. Alfred Morris arguably has the best matchup of any Washington skill-position player in Week 4, despite coming off the slowest Week 3 game (23-77-0). Back at home in what should be a competitive affair -- or one where the host Redskins play with a lead -- Morris is well positioned to rack up rushing attempts. In four career meetings with Giants DC Perry Fewell's defense, Morris has rushed 71 times for 332 yards (4.68 YPC) and a score.
Seemingly everyone wrote off Eli Manning as "done" after an ugly preseason and Week 1 nationally-televised loss, but the Giants' offense has begun clicking under first-year OC Ben McAdoo. McAdoo implemented a hurry-up attack in last week's win over Houston, and according to PFF's Pat Thorman, Eli completed 13-of-14 passes for 170 yards and a touchdown in faster-tempo packages. Over his last two games, Manning has now converted 47-of-67 throws (70.1%) for 511 yards (7.63 YPA) with a 4:2 TD-to-INT ratio. Facing a Redskins defense that is eliminating run games but remains vulnerable to the pass, Manning is worth firing up in two-quarterback leagues and by desperate QB1 streamers. ... Rashad Jennings' monster workloads make him impossible to sit in 12- and 14-team leagues -- he's averaging over 25 touches per game -- but if Jennings produces a big box score, he'll be the first running back to do so against the Redskins this year. Washington held Arian Foster, Toby Gerhart, and LeSean McCoy to 133 yards on 49 carries (2.71 YPC) in Weeks 1-3. ... A mere handcuff to Jennings at this stage, rookie Andre Williams' snap count has fallen in each of the Giants' first three games. He has 39 yards on 19 carries (2.05 YPC) and one dropped pass.
Eli's Weeks 1-3 target distribution: Larry Donnell 23; Victor Cruz 22; Rueben Randle 20; Jennings 9; Preston Parker 6; Williams 5; Daniel Fells 4; Corey Washington 1. ... By turning in a 5-107-1 line in last week's win over the Texans, Cruz snapped a 12-game scoreless streak. It was just his second 100-yard performance since September of 2013. Particularly with six teams on Week 4 byes, Cruz is a high-end WR3 and arguable WR2 option against DeAngelo Hall-less Washington. ... An integral part of New York's weekly game plans since his silent Week 1, Randle has 17 targets over the Giants' last two games. He appeared to be the focal point of McAdoo's early-game script against Houston, as Eli targeted Randle four times among his initial five throws, completing all four, including three in Texans top CB Johnathan Joseph's coverage. Now facing a Redskins team that may force the Giants to throw frequently due to its stout run defense but leaky secondary, Randle is an upside WR3 on Thursday night. ... Not going away as a TE1, team target leader Donnell has caught 78% of the passes thrown in his direction, emerging as Manning's sticks-moving safety valve. The Redskins have been stingy versus tight ends so far -- 24th in fantasy points allowed -- but we are still in small sample sizes and DC Jim Haslett's defense has among the weakest safety play in football.
Score Prediction: Redskins 24, Giants 20
