Matchup: Cowboys @ Bears
Thursday Night Football
Dallas @ Chicago
In this clash of Thanksgiving losers, Cowboys-Bears has a 51.5-point over-under, second highest of Week 14. Although Jay Cutler's box-score predictability has frustrated at times this season, this game sets up well for him to return QB1 production. Over its last six games, Dallas has allowed enemy quarterbacks to complete 139-of-203 throws (68.5%) for 1,641 yards (8.08 YPA) and a 10:4 TD-to-INT ratio. Mark Sanchez's Eagles consistently moved the ball against Cowboys DC Rod Marinelli's unit last Thursday. One concern for Cutler is his tendency to play poorly against zone defenses while excelling versus man. Marinelli will attack Cutler in a Tampa-2 zone. I wouldn't start Cutler on FanDuel this week, but he's a top-12 quarterback play. ... Cutler's target distribution since the Bears' Week 9 bye: Alshon Jeffery 46; Brandon Marshall 36; Matt Forte and Martellus Bennett 28; Marquess Wilson 9; Dante Rosario 4; Ka'Deem Carey 3. ... Overtaking Marshall as Cutler's go-to guy, Jeffery has 100-plus yards and/or a touchdown in eight of his last ten games. Expect Jeffery to square off frequently Thursday night with LCB Brandon Carr, who is Pro Football Focus' No. 113 cornerback among 117 qualifiers. Carr has been dusted by Cecil Shorts (5-119), Odell Beckham (10-146-2), and Jeremy Maclin (8-108) over his last three games. ... On pace for eight-year lows in receptions (78) and yards (880), Marshall is a fantasy WR2/3. He also gets a more difficult Week 14 draw than Jeffery, taking on stingy Cowboys RCB/slot corners Orlando Scandrick and Sterling Moore. With nine-plus targets in six of his last seven games, Marshall should remain a staple in re-draft lineups. He's disappeared from the daily-league radar.
Exploitable over the middle and up the seam, Marinelli's Tampa 2 has permitted an average of over six catches for 61 yards to opposing tight ends, and the fourth most touchdowns (9) to the position. Bennett has been an up-and-down performer all year, but he's a solid TE1 on Thursday night. ... Third receiver Wilson's target totals since returning from I.R./recall three weeks ago are 4, 3, and 2, with corresponding snap rates of 76%, 49%, and 77%. Long on talent, I think Wilson will have at least one big game down the stretch. I don't pretend to know when it will occur. The 22-year-old is a re-draft WR5, but Wilson is worth clinging to tightly in Dynasty leagues. ... The best way to generate offense against the Cowboys all season has been to run on them. It keeps DeMarco Murray and his dominant offensive line off the field while simultaneously exploiting Dallas' most glaring weakness. Enemy running backs have combined to average 4.82 yards per carry against Dallas, and one week ago LeSean McCoy dismantled this same defense for a season-best 25-159-1 rushing line. Forte is the safest and arguably highest-floor fantasy play on Chicago's side in this game.
Astute football observers know there are two reasons Dallas has played ball-control, run-devoted offense all season. Aware of their own deficiencies, the Cowboys' defense is arguably the least talented in football, and their quarterback is 34 years old with recurring back problems. Some folks complained about Dallas' unwillingness to "open it up" on Thanksgiving, but there are significant explanations for why they didn't. Looking to rebound from the demoralizing blowout loss to division-rival Philadelphia, the Cowboys figure to attack the Bears in the manner they attack everyone: By attempting to run the football down their opponent's throat. Chicago has played better run defense than commonly given credit for this year, but lost WLB Lance Briggs (groin) to injured reserve last week and may not have run-stopping NT Jeremiah Ratliff (questionable, knee). Thin and winded up front, the Bears couldn't stop the Lions' run game in clock-killing mode on Thanksgiving, as Joique Bell capitalized for season highs in rushing yards (91) and TDs (2). Expect DeMarco Murray to eat. ... The Week 14 concerns for Tony Romo have nothing to do with his matchup. The Bears' defense has coughed up a league-high 27 touchdown passes, and Chicago's combined passer rating allowed is 101.1, the NFL's third worst clip. Romo's health is a worry following his Thanksgiving performance, where his throws lacked zip and he appeared gunshy in the pocket. The good news is Dallas' offensive line will be too much for Chicago's weak defensive line to handle. Expect a big bounce-back game from Dez Bryant and a steadier one from Romo at Soldier Field.
Romo's target distribution since he returned from his latest back aggravation three games ago: Dez 24; Murray 16; Jason Witten 15; Cole Beasley 10; Terrance Williams 8; Lance Dunbar 3; Gavin Escobar 2. ... Calvin Johnson (11-146-2) was just the latest plus-sized wideout to expose Chicago's undersized secondary. Vincent Jackson (5-117), Jordy Nelson (6-152-2), Mike Evans (3-47-1), Brandon LaFell (11-124-1), and Charles Johnson (6-87) are all 6-foot-2 or taller and have produced against the Bears over the past five games. Fire up Dez as a top-five WR1 on Thursday night. ... Witten often gets stuck on the line blocking for long stretches, but his matchup on paper is favorable. The Bears have allowed the fifth most receptions (65), sixth most yards (743), and second most touchdowns (10) in the league to tight ends. The Cowboys would be smart to play frequent "12 personnel" (two receivers, two tight ends) in this game, exploiting Chicago's league-worst linebacker-safety combination. That would involve more usage of Witten and Escobar, and less of slot receiver Beasley. ... Williams has cleared 40 yards once in his last six games and is scoreless since Week 7. Simply not a big part if the Cowboys' passing game, Williams is safe to ignore in the fantasy playoffs.
Score Prediction: Bears 27, Cowboys 24
