Matchup: Chiefs @ Raiders
Thursday Night Football
Kansas City @ Oakland
Readers of the weekly Matchups column and general NFL observers know usually pass-happy coach Andy Reid has transitioned the 2014 Chiefs to a decidedly run-dominated team. Kansas City enters Week 12 ranked No. 4 in the NFL in rushing offense, No. 3 in yards per carry (4.75), and No. 7 in rushing attempts. The Chiefs' run game has been downright dominant as a unit, imposing their will on even football's stoutest foes. Since returning from his early-season high ankle sprain, Jamaal Charles has taken on four top-nine run defenses (NYJ, SEA, SF, BUF). He's proceeded to paste them for 415 yards and four TDs on 70 carries (5.93 YPC). Playing middling run defense and now on a short week, Oakland has allowed 335 yards and two touchdowns on 83 carries (4.04 YPC) to opposing running backs over their last three games. You'd struggle to find a better fantasy running back option than Charles for Week 12. ... No. 2 back Knile Davis' weekly workloads have been wildly inconsistent, but you could do worse in a flex-position bind. The Chiefs are seven-point favorites facing the win-less Raiders, and projected game flow suggests Kansas City should pretty handily control this affair. Because they're on a short week, the Chiefs could also purposely game plan to utilize Davis more in an effort to "save" Charles' legs. It's a high-risk gamble, but Davis will be a good bet to hit pay dirt it he ends up with 12-14 touches against the NFL's worst team.
Keep in mind this game has a 42.5-point over-under -- third lowest of Week 12 -- so expecting offensive fireworks would be a stretch on either side. That said, Alex Smith's matchup is good enough for QB1 streamer consideration. The Oakland weather forecast is favorable, which is something to take seriously this time of year, and Smith carved up Raiders DC Jason Tarver's defense the last time these clubs met, throwing for 287 yards and five touchdowns on 17-of-20 passing last December. That game was also at The Black Hole. Oakland's defense is better now than it was then, but still isn't particularly good, ranking 24th in Football Outsiders' pass-defense DVOA metric. The Raiders have endured myriad injuries in the secondary this season, and rank last in the league in sacks (10). ... Smith's target distribution since Charles got healthy seven games ago: Dwayne Bowe 51; Travis Kelce 34; Charles 25; Anthony Fasano 17; A.J. Jenkins 12; Junior Hemingway 11; Anthony Sherman 9; Knile Davis 7; Frankie Hammond 4. ... The lone Kansas City wide receiver worth fantasy consideration is Bowe, who remains scoreless on the season and is on pace for 815 receiving yards. He's ordinarily a fantasy WR4 whose ceiling is always capped by the Chiefs' inability and refusal to challenge defenses beyond 5-10 yards. Bowe will primarily run his Week 12 routes at Raiders sophomore LCB D.J. Hayden, who has come on recently after a rocky beginning to his career. ... The lone Kansas City tight end worth fantasy discussion is Kelce, who on the year ranks tenth in fantasy scoring among TEs despite ranking 18th in targets. Fasano's (knee) return could limit Kelce's playing time, but the upside is always there with "Zeus," even if Reid's usage of him fails to cooperate more often than not. The Raiders rank 16th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends. Kelce is a low-end fantasy TE1.
The Raiders' backfield devolved into a three-way timeshare during last week's loss to San Diego. Usual lead back Darren McFadden was limited to eight touches, playing 37% of Oakland's offensive snaps. DMC has three touchdowns over his last 14 games. Maurice Jones-Drew played 17% of the downs, handling four touches, and now has 70 yards on 33 carries (2.12 YPC) this year. Latavius Murray played a season-high 45% of the snaps and turned seven touches into 59 total yards. Maybe Murray will suck when given a lot of carries, but it's way past time for the Raiders to find out. It's hard to fathom using an Oakland running back in a fantasy league on Thursday night, but Murray is the only one capable of offering even a sliver of upside. At 6-foot-3, 223, Murray burned a 4.38 forty with an explosive 10-foot-4 broad jump at the 2013 UCF Pro Day. ... Oakland's passing "attack" is pretty much entirely hands off as it does battle with a Chiefs defense that ranks No. 1 against the pass and has 30 sacks, third most in the league. Per Pro Football Focus, Kansas City caused pressure on Russell Wilson on a whopping 40% of his Week 11 dropbacks. My guess is the national public will come away from this "island game" not thinking too highly of rookie quarterback Derek Carr, who has regressed into a checkdown machine over the course of his first NFL season.
Carr's target distribution over his last four games: James Jones and Mychal Rivera 33; McFadden 21; Andre Holmes 19; Marcel Reece 14; Kenbrell Thompkins 13; Brice Butler 11; Murray 7; Vincent Brown 6; Denarius Moore and Jones-Drew 5. ... Rivera is a limited athlete whose fantasy viability is directly tied to volume. He'll pay off as a TE1 when he gets peppered with targets, and flop when he doesn't. I don't pretend to know if Rivera will see a lot of volume in Week 12. He didn't last week, but did in Oakland's previous three games. The Chiefs have allowed the fewest receptions (31) and yards (317) in the league to tight ends. ... With perimeter receivers Holmes, Thompkins, and Moore struggling to create separation, slot man Jones has taken over as Oakland's top wideout. Jones has a reasonably attractive matchup against Chiefs slot corner Phillip Gaines, the greenest and arguably weakest link in Kansas City's cornerback unit. LCB Ron Parker and RCB Sean Smith have both been steady cover men this year, particularly Smith. If you're desperate in a WR3 slot in a PPR league, Jones could make some sense for you. With only two teams on Week 12 byes, however, upside seekers may want to aim a bit higher.
Score Prediction: Chiefs 23, Raiders 13
