Use It or Lose It
Well, we had our first surprising coaching change of the season with the Kings firing Mike Malone early Monday morning. The ownership/management group was never really high on him to begin with, so they'll look to start over. Moving forward, there’s a lot of talk of coach George Karl taking over as the Kings head coach. Owner Vivek Ranadive was a part owner of the Golden State Warriors and apparently the success of GSW has led to the regime change. The Warriors rank second in the NBA in pace while the Kings rank 16th in NBA.
In his last three years with the Nuggets, Karl’s teams ranked in the top five for pace in each of those seasons. Plus, his teams ranked in the top three for free throws per game in each of those seasons. If Karl takes over, we should certainly see an uptick in value all around.
Although, we are going to have to get through the Ty Corbin era first. The Jazz were 25th in pace last season despite having a very young team. Still, the team shouldn’t have too much of an ideological change at the drop of the hat, and chances are Vivek had a chat with Corbin to tell him to keep the tempo high.
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Ben McLemore is probably the first player to come to mind here. His usage rate was among the lowest of wings with 24 minutes of playing time per game at just 13.7 in his first 12. His last 12 has seen a major bump in usage at 17.4, which is pretty solid considering he has Rudy Gay as a teammate. Of course, DeMarcus Cousins, the big-man leader in usage rate, not playing in the last nine games has a lot to do with that.
The good news on B-Mac is that he’s been more efficient sans DeMarcus. Here is some data on his shooting since DMC went down (up top) vs. his shooting numbers from last season (below):
That's a lot of data. The big difference has been with his effective field goal percentage of catch-and-shoot. He is also catching and shooting less, which makes sense because he has to create his own shot more without Cousins around. Also the increase in pull-up frequency bodes very well for his ceiling as a scorer. The efficiency has seen a nice uptick there, but it’s still not where it needs to be for him to have a big season.
Another big positive for McLemore is that Nik Stauskas has been a disaster this season, making just 33.0 percent from the field with 0.8:1.2 assist:turnover over his last four. He’s not taking B-Mac’s minutes this year.
Ty Corbin did count on his wings to do a lot of scoring in Utah, but he did have Gordon Hayward and Alec Burks — two solid isolation guys. McLemore should be able to hold his usage rate to around 17 even with Cousins coming back. If he continues to grow, he could be a top 100 guy in fantasy.
As far as daily goes, B-Mac has been hitting his value in each of his last three, but he’s really going to have to do more than just score to be scoring 30 FanDuel points consistently. I wouldn’t have high hopes for him unless Rudy Gay’s Achilles acts up. If Gay does miss time, B-Mac should have a decent chance for a big game.
Robert Covington - He’s currently the add of the year in deep leagues and it’s not close. His shot chart is something else:
Covington has somehow made just 1-of-26 on his non-restricted area two-point shots this season. He and general manager Sam Hinkie have a Houston Rockets background, which is all about treys and shots at the rim, so this shouldn’t be a surprise. He wasn’t expected to be a 3-point shooter with the Sixers, but that’s his role and it’s pretty clear. In his last seven games, Covington has made 22 treys, which is more than twice as much as any other player on Philly in that span (Hollis Thompson has 10). In those seven, he’s also posted a fairly solid 23.5 usage, which is very high for a 3-point guy (Kyle Korver has been between 14.2 and 14.5 in each of the last three seasons).
The big question is whether he can sustain the 3-point shooting. Here’s a look at his shot chart from the D-League last season:
Obviously, Covington is very unlikely to sustain his 44.8 percent from deep this season, but it’s not like he was dreadful from deep in the D-League. Also, he is awful from the mid-range and he had a high volume of shots at the rim, too.
I think it’s pretty clear Covington’s minutes are safe. The 76ers are going to need him to space the floor with the way Michael Carter-Williams and Tony Wroten are attacking the rim. In his last seven he’s the only player with a usage over 12 while posting an effective field goal percentage greater than 48 — he’s at 23.5 usage and 55.4 eFG%, so it’s not even close. The Tennessee State product should have no problem maintaining his value throughout the season and I would still consider using him in daily fantasy until his price is close to $6,500 on FanDuel. Plus, who knows? Maybe he grows into a consistent scorer with more stats to complement the scoring.
Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook - Russell Westbrook is pretty good, you guys. In his last seven games with Kevin Durant, Westy has posted a ridiculous 35.8 usage rate and a 40.7 assist percentage, which is crazy talk. Plus, the Thunder are running at a pace of 100.5 possessions per 48 minutes while he’s on the floor. It’s just his seventh season and he just turned 26 last month, so there is still some room for growth. He’s a superstar and is arguably the top PG play in DFS with matchups taken out of the equation.
As for KD, he’s coming around now. The Thunder have won their last six and have a margin of victory of 13.2 points per game, which has actually cost him some playing time due to garbage time. In his last five, he’s averaged 21.8 points, 6.2 boards, 4.6 assists, 1.2 blocks, 1.2 steals and 1.0 triples on 55.4 percent from the field and 97.0 percent from the line in 28.0 minutes. Yes, that’s good. Here’s his shot chart in that five game span:
That percentage at the rim and his mid-range 60.9 percent are truly elite. Durant’s usage is right where it needs to be at 30.4 on the season and he just needs the minutes to come around. Plus, his 28.0 assist percentage over his last five is a nice little bonus, too. He is going to dominate and should be fantasy hoops’ best player as long as he’s healthy.
Jodie Meeks - Perhaps the biggest fantasy waiver-wire story from Monday night was Jodie Meeks. He capitalized on garbage time as the Pistons were blown out. The Pistons overpaid on Meeks because they know they needed a shooter, so they are likely going to use him a lot.
In case you missed it, Meeks scored 20 points with one rebounds, four assists, two steals and three 3-pointers in 30 minutes on Monday. A pessimist will say that 13 points occurred in garbage time, but who cares? The Pistons need him and currently rank 25th in 3-point percentage on the season.
During coach Stan Van Gundy's Magic days, his team ranked first for 3-pointers in every single season the entire time he was there. They were also first in above-the break 3-pointers in that span and it wasn’t really close. The presence of Dwight Howard during that time really opened things up for shooters, but ranking first in each season speaks volumes. Plus, Andre Drummond’s usage rate is climbing, so hopefully he improves and teams double him more. It’s obvious the new coach is going to want to get some shooters on his new team and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope cannot consistently make an open shot. Just ask Markieff Morris.
If you need 3-pointers on your season-long team, Meeks should be picked up regardless of depth. Period.
As for DFS, there is a lot of promise, too. If a guy is going to blow up as a shooting guard, he’s usually going to need a usage of about 25. However, Meeks is just catching and shooting most of the time, so 20 will get it done (because his turnovers are going to be low). Last season, he has 30 games with a usage of at least 20. Plus, he’s also been over 20 in every game this season with the Pistons. Very encouraging. If the matchup is right, Meeks could be a nice player for DFS, especially now while his price is low.
Kawhi Leonard - Last night was not your usual Kawhi. He actually posted his highest usage rate of his career in any game with at least 15 minutes (there were two games in his rookie season in which he had higher usages in low minutes), scoring 21 points with nine rebounds, four assists, one block and four turnovers. The good news is that his usage rate is up to 22.3 on the season, increasing from just 18.3 last year. However, his efficiency is way down.
Kawhi was a top-eight player in effective field goal percentage of 57.6 last season. This season it’s taken a massive hit to just 48.9. That’s obviously not bad, but the efficiency was why he was a top-10 player in fantasy after the break last season. So is there hope he can turn it around? Let’s take a look at his scoring based off dribbles (this season top, last season bottom):
The similarities of his frequencies are surprising. However, his eFG% is down a lot in every type except for two-dribble shots. That is somewhat encouraging and it might have something to do with his vision. So I thought it would be cool to chart his eFG% based on time:
Yeah, that’s pretty inconclusive. Plus, most of those high eFG% games had high usages, too. He was a slow starter last season, so maybe that’s why. Even with the sub-par efficiency by his standards, he’s still been a top-20 player in standard leagues. There is still plenty of hope for him to be a top-10 guy.
For DFS, Kawhi’s usage is high while the Spurs sit guys, so he is a prime target to use on those nights in the proper matchup. He could be a monster soon enough.
UPDATE: Kawhi Leonard will not play on Wednesday due to a bruised hand. There is nothing structurally wrong, so he should be fine for the weekend. I still stand by everything above.
Shabazz Muhammad - He’s probably seen the biggest percentage of usage rate recently. In his last six games, Muhammad has a superstar-like 29.0 usage, turning in a solid 50.0 eFG%, too. He’s only made one 3-pointer in that span, hasn’t blocked a shot, had just 0.7 steals and only 0.9 assists, so the fantasy value isn’t there. In fact, that’s good for just No. 129 value in that span. He just won’t do enough to warrant consideration in standard leagues.
For DFS, he’s done a very solid job hitting his value. ‘Bazz has hit his value in three straight and he’ll likely be a 25-point game until the Wolves get Kevin Martin back. I would certainly consider using him in the right matchup, especially because he plays garbage time and the Wolves are awful right now.
Draymond Green - What are the Warriors going to do with David Lee? He’s a horrible fit for the Warriors because he’s a liability on defense. By comparison, the guy Draymond Green guards this season shoots worse than David Lee’s last season, which isn’t a surprise. Additionally, the Warriors are not going to want to play Lee a lot with his bum hammy.
Another big positive is how Draymond is averaging 3.0 dimes per game this season, which is pretty impressive considering he takes just 10.3 shots per game. In fact, Andrew Bogut, Joakim Noah and Green are the only three PF/Cs in the NBA to average 3.0 dimes per game on less than 11 shots per game.
As for the offense, Green has stepped it up over his last eight. He has a solid usage of 18.9 to go with a pristine 60.4 true shooting percentage. His minutes are up to 36.1 in that span, so he should still be around 28 even if he gives eight minutes to Lee. It would be a shock to see Lee take more than that — it’s hard to mess with a 16-game win streak.
He should be a beast all season.
Derrick Rose - We talk about Derrick Rose every time, but let’s just take a quick look again. His usage rate has climbed to 31.5 in 29.9 minutes per game over his last seven. However, his efficiency dipped to only 44.9 eFG% in that span. Rose is making just 53.6 percent at the rim, but those shots account for 23.9 percent of his total. That’s pretty good for him and his style of play is “back.”
He still hasn’t been a top-150 player on the season and he has to dodge the injury bug. If you can unload him for a top-60 player, I’d do it in a second. I have yet to use Rose in DFS because I’m too worried about an injury. He has played in 11 straight, so maybe in another week or so we’ll have more confidence in him.
